Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen largest tax rises since Second World War – thinktank

Published

1 year ago

September 29, 2023

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Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen the largest set of tax rises since the Second World War, according to economic analysis.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that – by the time of the next general election – the tax burden will have risen to around 37% of national income.

This equates to roughly £3,500 extra per household – although the increase is not shared evenly.

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Records began in 1950 for the figures, and no parliament has seen a larger hike.

The size of the tax burden and the lack of cuts to tariffs have been the subject of the ire of many Conservatives.

The headroom for tax cuts has suffered as interest rates rose and the cost to service debt has risen. High inflation has led the government to be cautious of cutting taxes and leaving people with more cash to spend.

Last week, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said it would be “virtually impossible” to cut taxes at the moment.

“I really, really wish it was true but unfortunately, it just isn’t,” he told LBC.

“If you look at what we are having to pay for our long-term debt, it is higher now than it was at the spring budget.

“I wish it wasn’t, it makes life extremely difficult, it makes tax cuts virtually impossible, and it means that I will have another set of frankly very difficult decisions.

“All I would say is, if we do want those long-term debt costs to come down, then we need to really stick to this plan to get inflation down, get interest rates down.

“I don’t know when that’s going to happen. But I don’t think it’s going to happen before the autumn statement on November 22, alas.”

There will likely be pressure for Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak to cut taxes – with some eyeing up cuts to sizeable projects like HS2 as a way to free up cash, and others calling for a relaxation of inheritance tax.

The economy is an area that Mr Sunak wants to make his strength – with three of his five pledges made at the start of this year relating to them.

Ben Zaranko, senior research economist at the IFS, said the pandemic could not be blamed for rising tax levels and predicted a high-tax approach was here to stay regardless of who wins the next general election.

“It is inconceivable that this parliament will turn out to be anything other than a tax-raising one – and it looks nailed on to be the biggest tax-raising parliament since at least the Second World War,” he said.

“This is not, for the most part, a direct consequence of the pandemic. Rather, it reflects decisions to increase government spending, in part driven by demographic change, pressures on the health service, and some unwinding of austerity.

“It is likely that this parliament will mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.”

This was echoed by Mark Franks, the director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation.

He said: “There will be strong pressure in coming parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services such as healthcare.

“Future governments must not only have a credible and robust strategy for the economy and the public finances, but should also be forthright and transparent about the difficult trade-offs they will face.”

Opposition parties seized on the findings, as Labour said that the Tories had “clobbered” the public.

Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said: “Successive Tory governments have overseen 13 years of low growth and stagnant wages. Their response in the face of this bankrupt legacy is always to load their failure onto working people. And what are we getting back? Crumbling public services.

“Brits are working hard but getting clobbered with 25 Tory tax rises and a continuing Conservative premium on their household budgets.”

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A Treasury spokesperson said: “Despite needing to take the difficult decisions to restore public finances in the face of the dual shocks of the pandemic and Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the latest data shows our tax burden will remain lower than any major European economy.

“Driving down inflation is the most effective tax cut we can deliver right now, which is why we are sticking to our plan to halve it, rather than making it worse by borrowing money to fund tax cuts.

“We have also taken 3 million people out of paying tax altogether since 2010 through raising personal thresholds, and the chancellor has said he wants to lower the tax burden further – but has been clear that sound money must come first.”

UK

Body found in search for missing jogger Jenny Hall

Published

5 hours ago

February 23, 2025

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Body found in search for missing jogger Jenny Hall

A body has been found in the search for 23-year-old runner Jenny Hall.

She was last seen leaving her home in Barracks Farm, County Durham, in her car just after 3pm on Tuesday.

Police said there are not thought to be any suspicious circumstances after a body was found in a very remote area in Teesdale on Sunday morning, five days after she went missing.

“We’re sorry to report that officers searching for missing woman Jenny Hall, have sadly found a body,” Durham Constabulary said in a statement.

“Officers carried out an extensive search alongside specialist partners and have been working around-the-clock to locate Jenny after she went missing on February 18.

“The body was found in a very remote area in Teesdale just after 9.30am today.

“Formal identification has yet to take place. Jenny’s family have been notified and are currently being supported by specialist officers. They have asked for privacy at this devasting time.

“It is not believed there are any suspicious circumstances and a file will be prepared for the coroner.”

A major police search was launched after Ms Hall’s disappearance.

Her car, a red Ford Focus, was found on Wednesday parked on the B6278, near remote moorland between Eggleston and Stanhope.

Mountain rescue teams, specialist drones and sniffer dogs had been combing the Hamsterley Forest and the surrounding areas, where there are a number of running trails, this week.

Digital intelligence officers also carried out extensive inquiries into Ms Hall’s mobile phone, smart watch and running apps.

UK

Fresh amber warning for rain as Met Office issues alerts for much of UK

Published

5 hours ago

February 23, 2025

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Fresh amber warning for rain as Met Office issues alerts for much of UK

A fresh amber weather warning for heavy rain has been issued by the Met Office – with much of the UK already on alert for high winds and showers.

Northern Ireland, Scotland and the UK’s west coast and the Midlands have yellow warnings for wind on Sunday – meaning the possibility of transport delays and short-term power cuts.

There are also rain warnings in place for several parts of western UK.

The new amber warning has been issued for rain in south and central Wales and is in force from 3pm on Sunday to 6am on Monday.

An amber warning means danger to life from floodwater, homes and businesses are likely to be flooded, and there is a chance some communities will be cut off.

Winds across the west of the UK will increase throughout the morning with gusts up to 70mph in exposed areas, the Met Office said.

Zoe Hutin, a meteorologist at the forecaster, said Sunday is expected to be the “worst day” before conditions improve.

“The wind warning itself for the mainland UK ends at 6pm, but we can expect to continue to see quite blustery conditions even into the evening as the mainland rain itself pushes through.”

She added: “By the time people get up on Monday, we’ll still have some of the residual rain from that front in the far south-east of the country, and quite cloudy across England as well.

“But actually elsewhere, it could be a decent start.”

The Met Office’s yellow weather warnings for much of England and Scotland came into force at 6am and are expected to run until 6pm on Sunday.

A separate yellow warning for Northern Ireland came into force at 3am and runs until 3pm.

People who have noticed some slightly higher temperatures the last couple of days may be dismayed at the latest predictions.

“Through the week, those temperatures are trending back down,” Ms Hutin said.

“And so it will be getting cooler each day, but they will actually just be recovering to around average for the time of year. So it won’t be cold.

“It will just be returning back to where we would expect to be for this time of February.”

UK

Starmer says ‘US is right’ about UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence

Published

5 hours ago

February 23, 2025

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Starmer says 'US is right' about UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence

Sir Keir Starmer has said the United States “is right” about the UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence and security.

The prime minister, speaking at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow on Sunday, said he is clear Britain “will take a leading responsibility” in protecting the continent.

“Instability in Europe always washes up on our shores,” he said.

“And this is a generational moment. I’ve been saying for some time that we Europeans – including the United Kingdom – have to do more for our defence and security. The US is right about that.”

He added “we can’t cling to the comforts of the past” as it is “time to take responsibility for our security”.

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Donald Trump sparked an emergency meeting of European leaders this week after he said European NATO members should spend more on defence, while the US should spend less.

Sir Keir has said he will set out a path for the UK to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence, up from the current 2.3%, but has not indicated when that will be.

It is believed he may announce the details when he visits Mr Trump in Washington DC on Thursday, bringing forward the announcement that was expected in the spring when a defence spending review is published.

The prime minister reiterated the UK will “play our role” if required in Ukraine following a peace agreement after he earlier this week said the UK would send troops to be part of a peacekeeping force.

However, his comments caused a row with Germany and Italy who said it was premature to commit to boots on the ground, although France agreed with the UK.

Sir Keir said: “As we enter a new phase in this conflict, we must now deepen our solidarity even further.”

He added: “There can be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine.

“And the people of Ukraine must have long-term security.”

This week has seen US officials meet their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine – which has been met with indignation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as none of his team were invited.

No Europeans were invited either, sparking concern the US is pandering to Vladimir Putin.

Sir Keir has promised Mr Zelenskyy he will make the case for safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty when he meets with Mr Trump, who has called the Ukrainian president a dictator.

Mr Trump also said Sir Keir and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will visit the White House too this week, “haven’t done anything” to end the war.