TOPSHOT – A staff of a small shoe manufacturer shows their new products to make an introductory video to be posted on social media in Bogor, West Java on September 27, 2023. Indonesia has banned goods transactions on social media platforms such as TikTok, Facebook or Instagram in a new regulation, its trade minister said on September 27, as Jakarta aims to rein in direct sales on major platforms it says are harming millions of small businesses.
Aditya Aji | Afp | Getty Images
TikTok’s Southeast Asian ambitions will take a major hit after Indonesia bans shopping transactions on social media apps, analysts told CNBC.
On Wednesday, Indonesia set a one-week deadline for TikTok to become a standalone app, without any e-commerce feature. If TikTok does not comply, it faces the risk of closure in the country.
“[Being a standalone app] could introduce significant friction for existing TikTok users, negatively impacting user experiences,” said Jonathan Woo, senior research analyst at Phillip Securities Research.
Indonesia has banned e-commerce transactions on social media platforms such as TikTok Shop and Facebook. This means that users are not allowed to buy or sell goods and services through such platforms.
Even if it can secure a separate license to operate, operating as a standalone app may still be challenging.
Sachin Mittal
DBS Bank
TikTok is owned by Chinese tech giant ByteDance, and is already under scrutiny from the U.S. lawmakers who are concerned about the company’s ownership structure and ties to China.
In June, TikTok’s CEO said the app will pour “billions of dollars” into Southeast Asia over the next few years as the company looks to diversify its business globally as U.S. pressure piles up.
Indonesia is TikTok’s largest Southeast Asian market and second-largest global market with 125 million users after the U.S., according to the company.
“Given that most [purchases on TikTok] are impulse buys, the need to log into a separate app might lead to a high drop-out rate,” said Sachin Mittal, head of telecom, media and technology research at DBS Bank, in a Thursday report.
Impulse buying from watching content is an advantage TikTok has, Mittal told CNBC previously.
“Even if it can secure a separate license to operate, operating as a standalone app may still be challenging,” said Mittal.
New social media rules
On Saturday, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo called for social media regulations, saying such platforms impact micro-, small- and medium-sized companies and the economy.
“Because we know it affects MSMEs, small businesses, micro-enterprises, and also the market, there are markets where sales have started to decline due to the influx,” he said in a statement.
Crucially, the only business affected will be challenger TikTok Shop, whose entire business model relies on social commerce.
Moving forward, Indonesia requires e-commerce platforms in the country to implement a minimum price of $100 for certain items that are directly purchased from overseas. All products offered should meet local standards.
“Crucially, the only business affected will be challenger TikTok Shop, whose entire business model relies on social commerce,” said BMI in a Tuesday report, adding that it expects to see a decline in TikTok Shop’s numbers.
TikTok Shop is trailing behind Shopee (36%), Tokopedia (35%), Lazada (10%) and Bukalapak (10%), the report said.
“In our view, TikTok Shop would have to prove that its e-commerce is a separate business from its social media, with no data sharing from the backend and possibly a clear source of funding for e-commerce losses, which was funded earlier by advertising business on its social media app,” said Mittal.
TikTok ‘deeply concerned’
In response to the Indonesia’s latest move, TikTok said that it will respect local rules and regulations.
“We are deeply concerned about [the] announcement, particularly how it would impact the livelihoods of the 6 million sellers and nearly 7 million affiliate creators who use TikTok Shop,” a TikTok spokesperson told CNBC.
“We respect local laws and regulations and will be pursuing a constructive path forward,” the person added.
This comes as TikTok has been looking for growth outside the U.S., as Chinese-owned apps face political headwinds. Its flagship app was banned in Montana on personal devices, the first state to do so, as well as in India.
“In the near term, the main beneficiaries to this regulation would be existing e-commerce players like Shopee and GoTo,” said Woo of Phillip Securities Research.
E-commerce marketplaces account for a significant share of Indonesia’s digital payment figures, said BMI.
In July, the value of digital transactions in Southeast Asia’s largest economy reached an all-time high of 160 trillion Indonesian rupiah ($10.3 billion) and transaction volume amounted to 1.7 trillion. Both metrics were up 65.8% and 71.5% respectively, compared to the same period a year ago, according to BMI.
Musk, the world’s richest person, started going after Navarro over the weekend, posting on X that a “PhD in econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” a reference to Navarro’s degree. Whatever subtlety remained at the beginning of the week has since vanished.
On Tuesday, Musk wrote that “Navarro is truly a moron,” noting that his comments about Tesla being a “car assembler,” as much are “demonstrably false.” Musk called Navarro “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before later apologizing to bricks. Musk also called Navarro “dangerously dumb.”
Musk’s attacks on Navarro represent the most public spat between members of President Trump’s inner circle since the term began in January, and show that the steep tariffs announced last week on more than 180 countries and territories don’t have universal approval in the administration.
When asked about the feud in a briefing on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”
“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.
For Musk, whose younger brother Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action, the name-calling appears to be tied to business conditions.
Tesla’s stock is down 22% in the past four trading sessions and 45% for the year. Tesla has lost more tha $585 billion in value since the calendar turned, equaling tens of billions of dollars in paper losses for Musk, who is also CEO of SpaceX and the owner of xAI and social network X.
Even before President Trump detailed his plan for widespread tariffs, he’d already placed a 25% tariff on vehicles not assembled in the U.S. Many analysts said Tesla could withstand those tariffs better than competitors because its vehicles sold in the U.S. are assembled domestically.
But the company’s production costs are poised to increase because of the tariffs on materials and parts from foreign suppliers. Canada and Mexico are among the leading sources of U.S. steel imports, and Canada is the nation’s largest supplier of aluminum, while China and Mexico are home to major suppliers of printed circuit boards to the automotive industry.
At a recent an event hosted by right-wing Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, Musk said, “Both Europe and the United States should move, ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.”
Musk, whose view on trade relations with Europe stands in stark contrast to the policies implemented by the president, has a vested interest in the region. Tesla has a large car factory outside of Berlin, and the European Commission previously turned to SpaceX for launches.
Even before the tariffs, Tesla’s business was faltering. Last week, the company reported a 13% year-over-year decline in first-quarter deliveries, missing analysts’ estimates. That report that landed days after Tesla’s stock price wrapped up its worst quarter since 2022.
Musk, who spent roughly $290 billion to help return Trump to the White House, is now leading the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which has slashed costs, eliminated regulations and cut tens of thousands of federal jobs. In the first quarter, Tesla was hit with waves of protests, boycotts and some criminal activity that targeted vehicles and facilities in response to Musk’s political rhetoric and his work in the White House.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, laughs as he attends a session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 23, 2020.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Apple‘s 23% plunge over the past four trading sessions has again turned Microsoft into the world’s most valuable public company.
As of Tuesday’s close, Microsoft is worth $2.64 trillion, while Apple’s market cap stands at $2.59 trillion.
While the market broadly is getting hammered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan, Apple is getting hit the hardest among tech’s megacap companies due to the iPhone maker’s reliance on China.
The Nasdaq is down 13% over the past four trading days, as President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from more than 100 countries has sparked fears of a recession brought on by rising prices. UBS analysts on Monday predicted that the price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max could jump as much as $350 in the U.S.
Both Apple and Microsoft, along with chipmaker Nvidia, were previously valued at upward of $3 trillion before the recent sell-off.
In January, Microsoft issued disappointing revenue guidance. Nevertheless, last week, as Jefferies analysts reduced their price targets on many software stocks, they wrote Microsoft was among the “companies who we view as more insulated” from tariff uncertainty.
Technology stocks bounced Tuesday after three rocky trading sessions, spurred by rising optimism that President Donald Trump could potentially negotiate tariff deals with world leaders.
The sector is coming off a wild trading session after speculation that the White House could potentially delay tariffs fueled volatile swings. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Nvidia finished higher, while Apple, Microsoft and Tesla posted losses.
Trump’s wide-sweeping tariff plans have sparked violent turbulence over the last three trading sessions. Trading volume on Monday hit its highest in nearly two decades. Technology stocks gyrated after the Nasdaq Composite posted its worst week in five years and the Magnificent Seven group lost $1.8 trillion in market value over two trading sessions.
Chipmakers were excluded from the recent tariffs, but have come under pressure on worries that higher duties could diminish demand for products they are used in and slow the economy. The sector is also expected to see tariffs further down the road.
Elsewhere, Broadcom surged 9% after announcing a $10 billion share buyback plan through the end of the year. Marvell Technology also bounced more than 9% after agreeing to sell its auto ethernet business for $2.5 billion in cash to Infineon Technologies.