The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ analysis that the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War puts into historical context what has been clear since Boris Johnson became prime minister.
Taxes have been risingsharply, either by stealth or declared policy, to keep up with election promises and demand for public services starved of investment during the previous decade.
Calculated as a share of GDP the tax take will have risen to 37% by the next election, a 4% increase since 2019 and a figure not seen since the 1940s.
By international standards, the UK taxpayer is not particularly heavily burdened. In Europe we pay more tax than Swiss and Irish citizens, but far less than the Germans, French and Scandinavian nations.
But historically this is a high, a reflection perhaps of the demands of an electorate that routinely says it wants to pay less tax (who doesn’t) but also wants high levels of public service.
While every one of the five Conservative chancellors since 2019 has consistently said they want to cut taxes they have done the opposite (with the exception of Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked and saw his plans abandoned three weeks after making them).
Increased government spending
The demands of tackling COVID-19 and the decision to bail out every household in Britain during the energy crisis have not helped keep a lid on spending and motivated some tax rises, but they are not, the IFS say, the largest drivers.
Rishi Sunak instituted many of the most significant while chancellor, and has rubber-stamped several more as prime minister. Corporation tax was increased from 19% to 25% this year, a measure announced by Sunak in 2021.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:22
‘Pandemic is to blame’
He was also responsible for the “stealth” element of our rising tax bills, the freezing of the thresholds for tax and National Insurance – the level at which we pay the various rates, which usually rise in line with inflation.
Wage inflation means many more people have been dragged into higher tax brackets, raising around £40bn for the exchequer, almost double the headline tax cuts announced at the last budget according to the IFS.
Windfall taxes on energy companies complete the set of measures that will amount to £100bn more in tax receipts than had the burden remained at the pre-2019 level of 33%.
The increases are also in large part a corrective to the austerity policies of David Cameron and George Osbourne, during which the UK tax take grew far less than in comparable economies also adjusting to the aftermath of the financial crash.
Given the IFS measures the tax burden as a percentage of GDP, delivering growth would be a way of cutting the tax burden.
That was Liz Truss’ plan, though the execution crashed the bond market and international confidence in the UK.
There was a sliver of a glimmer of good news on that front with the ONS upgrading GDP in the first quarter of this year, and all of 2022 by… 0.2%.
The current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the revision “proved the doubters wrong” but while it is of course welcome, it’s not enough to change the overarching narrative of stagnant economic progress in the last decade.
Even if growth were revised upwards by 2% next year, the IFS says it would still leave the tax burden at 36.6%, an increase of 3.5%, still the largest since the 1940s.
Sir Keir Starmer has said the government will debate emergency legislation on Saturday to keep the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe open as “our economic and national security is on the line”.
The prime minister added that “the future of British Steel hangs in the balance” and legislation will be passed tomorrow to allow the government to “take control of the plant and preserve all viable options” for it.
MPs and Lords are being summoned back from Easter recess to Westminster to debate draft legislation on the plans, and will sit from 11am on Saturday.
The government had been actively considering nationalising British Steel after Jingye, its Chinese owner in Scunthorpe, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the last blast furnaces in the UK running.
Jingye also rejected a £500m state rescue package in a move which raised fresh doubts about the 3,500 jobs at the Lincolnshire plant – with it feared the site would be forced to close as early as next week.
The steel from the plant is used in the rail network and the construction and automotive industries. Without the plant, Britain would be reliant on imports at a time of trade wars and geopolitical instability.
More from Politics
In a short statement delivered from Downing Street this evening, Sir Keir said: “I will always act in the national interest to protect British jobs and British workers.
“This afternoon, the future of British Steel hangs in the balance.
“Jobs, investment, growth, our economic and national security are all on the line.”
Image: One of the two blast furnaces at British Steel’s Scunthorpe operation
‘A new era of global instability’
The prime minister added he has been to the site in Scunthorpe and met the steelworkers there.
He said he understands how “important steel is” to the “whole country” and continued: “It’s part of our national story, Part of the pride and heritage of this nation.
“And I’ll tell you this, it is essential for our future.
“[The government’s] plan for change means we need more steel, not less. So we will act with urgency… This situation and our response is unique.
“While it is true that we’re facing a new era of global instability, our concerns about this plant and negotiations to protect it have been running for years.”
Sir Keir said parliament will be recalled for a “Saturday sitting” and will “pass emergency legislation” in “one day” to give the business secretary the powers to do “everything possible to stop the closure of these blast furnaces”.
He added: “We will keep all options on the table. Our future is in our hands.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves posted on X after the statement that the government is “taking action to save British steel production and protect British jobs”.
“We are securing Britain’s future,” she added.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:31
Inside the UK’s last blast furnaces
Tory leader criticises Starmer
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said this evening the Chinese owner of British steel has left the government with “no choice” but to act.
Jingye had confirmed plans to close the blast furnaces at Scunthorpe immediately despite months of talks and the offer of £500m of co-investment from the UK government, Mr Reynolds added in a statement.
It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the government has landed itself in a “steel crisis entirely of their own making”.
“As business secretary, I negotiated a modernisation plan with British Steel to limit job losses and keep the plant running, including introducing an electric arc furnace in Teesside, similar to what we did with Tata at Port Talbot steelworks.
“However, the union-led Labour government have bungled the negotiations, insisting on a Scunthorpe-only deal that the company has deemed unviable. Keir Starmer should have seen this coming. But instead of addressing it earlier in the week when parliament was sitting, their incompetence has led to a last-minute recall of parliament.”
She added the government’s attempts to find a solution to the crisis are inevitably “going to cost taxpayers a lot of money”.
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Image: British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant.
Pic Reuters
Meanwhile, the Unite union welcomed Sir Keir’s announcement by saying it is “absolutely the right thing to do to begin the process of nationalisation”.
The government has not confirmed plans to nationalise the company, but like the prime minister this evening, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said earlier this week that “all options” are on the table.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said this evening: “I am pleased that the government has listened to representations by Unite and other steel unions over the future of British Steel.
“Ministers could not have allowed a foundation industry to go under with the loss of more than 3,000 jobs and key skills… Discussions have been positive and whilst a longer-term plan needs to be developed, this gives workers the reprieve we have been asking for.”
X
This content is provided by X, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable X cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to X cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow X cookies for this session only.
Welsh political party Plaid Cymru has questioned why the government did not take similar action to save that steelworks.
The party’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP said: “Parliament is being recalled [on Saturday] to debate the nationalisation of Scunthorpe steelworks.
“But when global market forces devastated Welsh livelihoods in Port Talbot, Labour dismissed Plaid Cymru’s calls for nationalisation as ‘pipe dreams’.
“In a real emergency, governments step up to defend their strategic interests. Plaid Cymru recognised the importance of Welsh steelmaking. Labour chose to look the other way.
“When it was Wales, they mocked. Now it’s England, they act.
“Labour has taken Wales for granted for far too long – and the people of Wales won’t forget it.”
The economy performed better than expected in February, growing by 0.5% according to official figures released on Friday, but comes ahead of an expected hit from the global trade war.
The standard measure of an economy’s value, gross domestic product (GDP), rose in part thanks to a suprisingly strong performance from the manufacturing sector, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested.
Following the publication of the figures, the British pound rose against the dollar, jumping 0.4% against the greenback to $1.3019 within an hour.
Analysts had been forecasting just a 0.1% GDP hike in the lead-up to the announcement, according to data from LSEG.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves described the results as “encouraging”, but struck a cautious tone when alluding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the economic volatility of the past week.
“The world has changed, and we have witnessed that change in recent weeks,” she said.
“I know this is an anxious time for families who are worried about the cost of living and British businesses who are worried about what this change means for them,” Ms Reeves added. “This government will remain pragmatic and cool-headed as we seek to secure the best deal with the United States that is in our national interest.”
More on Uk Economy
Related Topics:
But back in February, when Mr Trump was just beginning his second term in office, the UK’s economy looked to be on firmer ground.
Service sectors like computer programming, telecoms and car dealerships all had strong a month, while manufacturing industries such as electronics and pharmaceuticals also helped to drive GDP growth in February.
Car manufacturing also picked up after its recent poor performance.
“The economy grew strongly in February with widespread growth across both services and manufacturing industries,” said Liz McKeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics.
While motor vehicle manufacturing and retail both grew in February 2025, they remain below February 2024 levels by 10.1% and 1.1% respectively
This aligns with industry data showing year-on-year declines in registrations and manufacturing.
“The UK economy expanded by 0.5% in February, surprising but welcome positive news,” said Hailey Low, Associate Economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
“However, heightened global uncertainty and escalating trade tensions mean the outlook remains uncertain, with a likely reduced growth rate this year due to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements.”
Ms Low said that this could create a dilemma for Ms Reeves, who would face difficult decisions later in the year when the chancellor presents her next budget.
The latest data also shows a jump from January, when the economy was flat. And compared to the same month a year ago, GDP was 1.4% higher in February 2025.
Global financial markets have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few days, but now, with President Donald Trump having paused his “retaliatory” tariffs, the situation should stabilise.
Here, we outline how the pound in your pocket has been affected.
Stock markets, bonds and currencies moved sharply after Mr Trump put a 90-day pause on tariffs other than the base 10% tax slapped on almost all imports to the US. China still faces a levy of 125% on the goods it exports to the US.
But there have still been some impactful changes since his so-called “liberation day” tariff announcement last week.
So, what’s happened?
Well, last week two more interest rate cuts were expected by the end of this year, but now traders are pricing in three cuts by the Bank of England.
Borrowing will become cheaper as the interest rate is now anticipated to be brought down more than previously thought, to 3.75% by the end of 2025 from the current 4.5%.
It’s not exactly for a good reason, though. The trade war means the UK economy is forecast to grow less.
This lower growth is what’s making observers think the Bank will cut rates sooner – making borrowing cheaper can lead to more spending. Increased spending can stimulate economic growth.
What does this all mean for you?
Some debts, like credit card bills, will become a bit cheaper.
Mortgages
Crucially for anyone soon to re-fix their rate, this means mortgage costs are falling.
Already, the typical two and five-year fixed rate deals are coming down, according to data from financial information company Moneyfacts.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:42
Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know
After weeks where the average rate would fall only once or twice, there have been larger and daily falls, the data shows.
As of Thursday, the typical rate for a five-year deal is 5.14%, and 5.29% for the average two-year fixed mortgage.
If the interest rate expectations remain, by the end of the year, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate will fall to 4.3% if a person is borrowing 75% of the property’s value, according to analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Filling up your car
Another positive that’s motivated by a negative is the reduced fuel cost to the motorist of filling up their vehicle.
The oil price fell due to rising fears of a recession in the world’s biggest economy. Now that those concerns have somewhat subsided, the oil price has remained comparatively low at $63.75 for a barrel of the benchmark Brent crude.
It’s far below the average price of $80 from last year.
This lower cost is likely to filter down to cheaper prices at the pump within days as the sharp oil price drops hit at the end of last week.
Lower oil costs could help bring down costs overall, lowering inflation, as oil is still used in many parts of the supply chain.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Lower interest rates mean falling savings rates, so savers can expect to get less of a return in the coming months.
Anyone with a stocks and shares ISA (Individual Savings Account) is likely to get a shock when they see the decline in their returns.
Image: A display shows the sharp rise of the Nikkei stock index in Tokyo. Pic: AP
Holidays
It’s not the best time to be heading off on a trip to a country that uses the euro. The pound hasn’t strayed far from buying €1.16, a low last seen in August.
It means your pound doesn’t go as far, as you’re getting less euro.
Against the dollar, however, sterling has risen to $1.29.
The exchange rate had been higher in the immediate wake of Mr Trump’s tariff announcement as the dollar value sank. At that point, you could briefly have bought $1.32 for a pound.
Supermarket shopping
Helpfully, the UK’s biggest and most popular UK supermarket, Tesco, updated us that it expects tariffs will have a “relatively small impact”.