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The Institute for Fiscal Studies’ analysis that the UK’s tax burden is the largest since the Second World War puts into historical context what has been clear since Boris Johnson became prime minister.

Taxes have been rising sharply, either by stealth or declared policy, to keep up with election promises and demand for public services starved of investment during the previous decade.

Calculated as a share of GDP the tax take will have risen to 37% by the next election, a 4% increase since 2019 and a figure not seen since the 1940s.

By international standards, the UK taxpayer is not particularly heavily burdened. In Europe we pay more tax than Swiss and Irish citizens, but far less than the Germans, French and Scandinavian nations.

But historically this is a high, a reflection perhaps of the demands of an electorate that routinely says it wants to pay less tax (who doesn’t) but also wants high levels of public service.

While every one of the five Conservative chancellors since 2019 has consistently said they want to cut taxes they have done the opposite (with the exception of Kwasi Kwarteng, who was sacked and saw his plans abandoned three weeks after making them).

Increased government spending

The demands of tackling COVID-19 and the decision to bail out every household in Britain during the energy crisis have not helped keep a lid on spending and motivated some tax rises, but they are not, the IFS say, the largest drivers.

Rather it has been meeting pledges to spend more on the NHS, increase the number of police officers and so on, that have driven the tax take ever higher.

Rishi Sunak instituted many of the most significant while chancellor, and has rubber-stamped several more as prime minister. Corporation tax was increased from 19% to 25% this year, a measure announced by Sunak in 2021.

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‘Pandemic is to blame’

He was also responsible for the “stealth” element of our rising tax bills, the freezing of the thresholds for tax and National Insurance – the level at which we pay the various rates, which usually rise in line with inflation.

Wage inflation means many more people have been dragged into higher tax brackets, raising around £40bn for the exchequer, almost double the headline tax cuts announced at the last budget according to the IFS.

Windfall taxes on energy companies complete the set of measures that will amount to £100bn more in tax receipts than had the burden remained at the pre-2019 level of 33%.

The increases are also in large part a corrective to the austerity policies of David Cameron and George Osbourne, during which the UK tax take grew far less than in comparable economies also adjusting to the aftermath of the financial crash.

Given the IFS measures the tax burden as a percentage of GDP, delivering growth would be a way of cutting the tax burden.

That was Liz Truss’ plan, though the execution crashed the bond market and international confidence in the UK.

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Some good news

There was a sliver of a glimmer of good news on that front with the ONS upgrading GDP in the first quarter of this year, and all of 2022 by… 0.2%.

The current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the revision “proved the doubters wrong” but while it is of course welcome, it’s not enough to change the overarching narrative of stagnant economic progress in the last decade.

Even if growth were revised upwards by 2% next year, the IFS says it would still leave the tax burden at 36.6%, an increase of 3.5%, still the largest since the 1940s.

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M&S reveals cost of cyber attack as profit almost wiped out

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M&S reveals cost of cyber attack as profit almost wiped out

The cyber attack on high street department store Marks and Spencer is expected to directly cost roughly £136m.

The figure is only the cost of immediate incident systems response and recovery, as well as specialist legal and professional services support.

Combined with a loss in sales, as the retailer’s online systems were out of action from Easter into the summer, statutory profit before tax at the business has been nearly wiped out for the first half of the year.

This profit measure dropped from £391.9m last year to £3.4m this year. Statutory profit before tax is the official profit figure reported in a company’s financial statements before it paid tax, used for tax and legal purposes.

About £100m is being claimed back in insurance for the cyberattack, M&S said in its market update.

Using a different profit measure – the M&S group’s adjusted profit before tax – the figure is more than half that of a year earlier, down from £413m to £184m.

Sales were hit as online shopping was unavailable from the April attack date until June. Some shelves were also empty in the days after the attack.

More on Cyber Attacks

Ransomware hackers broke into M&S systems by tricking employees at a third-party contractor.

The attack was just one of a series that struck major British businesses.

The Co-Op, Jaguar Land Rover and Harrods all had operations interrupted by cyber criminals.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves blames other people’s mistakes for her predicament but she bears some responsibility

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves blames other people's mistakes for her predicament but she bears some responsibility

To say this wasn’t the plan is an understatement.

When Rachel Reeves said last year (and many times since) that she had no intention of coming back to the British people with yet more tax rises, she meant it.

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But now the question ahead of the budget later this month is not so much whether taxes will rise, but which taxes, and by how much? Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the chancellor will be forced to break her manifesto pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT.

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Chancellor questioned by Sky News

Her argument, made in her news conference on Tuesday morning, is that she is in this position in large part because of other people’s mistakes, primarily those of the Conservative Party.

But while it’s certainly true that a significant chunk of the likely downgrade to her fiscal position reflects the fact that the “trend growth rate” – the average speed of productivity growth – has dropped in recent years due to all sorts of issues, including Brexit, COVID-19 and the state of the labour market, she certainly bears some responsibility.

A problem that is some of her own making

More on Rachel Reeves

First off, she established the fiscal rules against which she is being marked by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Second, she decided to leave herself only a wafer-thin margin against those rules.

Third, even if it weren’t for the OBR’s productivity downgrade, it’s quite likely the chancellor would have broken those fiscal rules, due to the various U-turns by the government on welfare reforms, winter fuel, and extra giveaways they haven’t yet provided the funding for, such as reversing the two-child benefit cap.

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Now, at this stage, no one, save for the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility, really knows the scale of the task facing the chancellor. And in the coming weeks, those numbers could change significantly.

But it’s becoming increasingly clear, from the political signalling if nothing else, that the government is rolling the pitch for bad news later this month.

Indeed, for all that this government pledged to bring an end to austerity, a combination of higher taxes and lower spending will be highly unpopular, not to mention deeply controversial. And while the chancellor will seek to blame her predecessors, it remains to be seen whether the public will be entirely convinced.

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Post Office hero Bates lands seven-figure Horizon payout

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Post Office hero Bates lands seven-figure Horizon payout

Sir Alan Bates has reached a seven-figure deal to settle his claim over the Post Office Horizon scandal, more than 20 years after he began campaigning over what turned into one of Britain’s biggest miscarriages of justice.

Sky News has learnt that the government has agreed a deal with the former sub-postmaster after handing him what he described as a “take it or leave it” offer during the spring.

Sir Alan has previously said publicly that that proposal amounted to 49.2% of his original claim.

One source suggested that his final settlement may have been worth between £4m and £5m, implying that Sir Alan’s claim could have been in the region of £10m, although those figures could not be corroborated on Tuesday morning.

A government spokesperson said: “We pay tribute to Sir Alan Bates for his long record of campaigning on behalf of victims and have now paid out over £1.2bn to more than 9,000 victims.

“We can confirm that Sir Alan’s claim has reached the end of the scheme process and been settled.”

Sky News has attempted to reach Sir Alan for comment about the settlement of his claim.

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Victims say they’re treated like ‘second class citizens’
Who are the key figures in the scandal?

Victim died days before compensation letter arrived

Sir Alan led efforts over many years to prove that the Horizon software system supplied by Fujitsu, the Japanese technology company, was faulty.

Hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted between 1999 and 2015, with scores of people either ending their own lives or making attempts to do so.

However, it was only after ITV turned their fight for justice into a drama, Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, that the government accelerated plans to deliver redress to victims.

Even so, the compensation scheme set up to administer redress has been mired in controversy.

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Will Post Office victims be cleared?

Writing in The Sunday Times in May, Sir Alan described the process as “quasi-kangaroo courts in which the Department for Business and Trade sits in judgement of the claims and alters the goalposts as and when it chooses”.

“Claims are, and have been, knocked back on the basis that legally you would not be able to make them, or that the parameters of the scheme do not extend to certain items.”

Sir Alan had previously been made compensation offers worth just one-sixth of his claim – which he had labelled “derisory”, with a second offer amounting to a third of the sum he was seeking.

Sir Ross Cranston, a former High Court judge, adjudicates on cases where a claimant disputes a compensation offer from the government and then objects to the results of a review by an independent panel.

In 2017, Sir Alan and a group of 555 sub-postmasters sued the Post Office in the High Court, ultimately winning a £58m settlement.

However, swingeing legal fees left the group with just £12m of that sum, prompting ministers to establish a separate compensation scheme amid a growing outcry.

A significant number of other sub-postmasters have also complained publicly about the pace, and outcome, of the compensation process.

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‘This waiting is just unbearable’

The first volume of Sir Wyn Williams’s public inquiry into the Horizon scandal was published in July, and concluded that at least 13 people may have taken their own lives after being accused of wrongdoing, even though the Post Office and Fujitsu knew the Horizon system was flawed.

The miscarriage of justice left the Post Office’s reputation, and that of former bosses including chief executive Paula Vennells, in tatters.

A subsequent corporate governance mess under the last government further dragged the Post Office’s name through the mud, with the then chief executive, Nick Read, accused of being absorbed by his own remuneration.

In recent months, the government has outlined a further redress scheme aimed at compensating victims of the Capture accounting software which was in use at Post Offices between 1992 and 2000.

Since then, a new management team has been appointed and has set the objective of boosting postmasters’ pay and overhauling technology systems to enable Post Office branches to offer a broader range of services.

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