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Rishi Sunak is considering removing the winter fuel allowance from all but the poorest pensioners as a way of clawing back some taxpayer funds from the elderly as he prepares to fight the next election on a pledge to keep the pension triple lock despite its spiralling costs.

Government figures told Sky News the prime minister “understands the politics” of the triple lock and knows he has no option but to recommit to it, given the importance of the pensioner vote to his campaign and the Lib Dem recommitment to the policy in recent days.

Labour is also expected to maintain the triple lock in its manifesto.

Politics Live: Labour in campaigning mode ahead of by-elections

But the prime minister is also trying to find ways to offset the cost of the commitment with officials drawing up proposals to remove the annual winter fuel allowance from all pensioners except those who receive pension credit.

“Rishi understands the politics of the triple lock, although he thinks it’s far from fair from an intergenerational point of view, so he’s trying to redress that a little bit,” said one government insider.

Another person familiar with discussions told Sky News that if the government decides to “keep the triple lock but take away the winter fuel allowance from rich pensioners. I think people will understand that and think it’s fair”.

Mr Sunak has so far refused to commit to honouring the triple lock – which increases pensions each year by whatever is highest out of average earnings, inflation or 2.5%.

However, insiders say it is inevitable that he will and is now trying to find other ways to offset the cost of the commitment, with the triple lock forecast to cost as much as £45bn a year by 2050.

Winter fuel payments go to about 8.4m households and is forecast to cost £2bn this year, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. A small – and falling – proportion are in receipt of pension credit.

What is the winter fuel allowance?

The Winter Fuel Payment is a tax-free handout from the government to help people of pension age pay for their fuel and heating bills.

Ministers set a date each year that defines eligibility. For 2023/204, anyone born before 25 September 1957 could get between £250 and £600 to help pay for bills this winter.

The exact amount depends on things like age and whether other people in your household also qualify.

However, it does not take into account financial status, meaning even the wealthiest pensioners can receive the state benefit.

Pensioners can opt-out of receiving the payments, but last year the numbers doing so dropped. Charities said this showed even middle class retirees were struggling with rising energy bills.

Wealthy celebrities like Lord Alan Sugar have also complained about the difficulties in opting out and donated their allowance instead.

Some MPs have previously called for a means-tested system, but the idea has not become mainstream.

Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the IFS, said over the long-run, the cost of retaining the triple lock will dwarf the saving from even getting rid of the winter fuel allowance entirely, pointing out that since 2010, the triple lock has increased state pension spending by £11bn a year to date.

A government spokesperson said the government was committed to the triple lock and said it would not comment on speculation ahead of its annual autumn review of benefits and pensions.

“We have protected pensioners with the biggest State Pension increase in history this year as well as boosting Pension Credit – worth around £3,500 a year for those on the lowest incomes,” the spokesperson said.

“On top of Winter Fuel Payments, pensioners will get another £300 this winter to help with essential costs, and we are bearing down on inflation to make everyone’s money go further.”

But officials also noted that there are 200,000 fewer pensioners in absolute poverty than in 2009/10, with the basic state pension over £3,050 a year higher than in 2010.

Winter fuel allowance is only one spending area the government is looking at ahead of the autumn statement in November.

One figure told Sky News that the Department of Work and Pensions is also considering whether to cut working-age benefits in real terms ahead of the general election as the PM looks for space to create tax cuts. This could mean breaking the link with updating benefits in line with inflation.

The prime minister wants to be able to offer tax cuts in the run-up to the election, with one minister suggesting that scrapping the second leg of HS2 as well as a real-term cut in benefits might give the PM more room to do this.

One option being discussed is whether to increase the threshold for paying inheritance tax from £1m to £1.5m in order to appeal to middle-class voters in more affluent counties.

“It might be helpful in some seats,” said a figure familiar with discussions, who said scrapping the tax completely carried political risk given it would be framed as a tax break for the very rich.

The issue of the rising tax burden is vexing many Conservative MPs and has been put squarely on the agenda on the eve of the Conservative Party conference after the IFS released analysis showing that Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen the largest set of tax rises since the Second World War, and will cost the equivalent of £3,500 per household.

The IFS also estimates that by the time of the next general election the tax burden will have risen to 37% of national income and also warns that the shift to higher taxes may never be reversed, piling the pressure on the prime minister to cut taxes as his party gathers in Manchester this weekend for its annual party conference.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss, who is due to attend the great British growth rally fringe in Manchester on Monday, alongside former cabinet ministers Priti Patel and Jacob Rees-Mogg, said on Friday: “We should always be seeking to reduce the tax burden, especially when there is so much pressure on family budgets.

“This unprecedentedly high tax burden is one of the reasons that the British economy is stagnating and why we need to cut taxes to help make Britain grow again.”

Another senior Conservative MP said some colleagues were in despair over Mr Sunak’s leadership and refusal to cut taxes. “We had a majority of 80 and now we’d be lucky to get a majority. We need to demonstrate Conservative values to make sure people can keep more of their money.”

Treasury minister Andrew Griffith told Sky News the government still believes in “reducing the tax burden” but their priority is bringing down inflation.

Asked if we can expect some tax cuts before the next general election, he said: “No, that’s absolutely not what I’m saying and I think any responsible treasury minister wouldn’t come on your programme this morning and make specific commitments.”

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What do dolphins get up to beneath the waves? Their poo has the answers

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What do dolphins get up to beneath the waves? Their poo has the answers

Scientists are turning detective to work out what British dolphins are up to beneath the waves – by using forensic-style DNA techniques on their poo.

Conservationists have been studying the 250 or so bottlenose dolphins living in Cardigan Bay, west Wales, over many decades.

Up to now, they have only been able to observe the dolphins as they surface to breathe or play, identifying the animals from the unique marks on their dorsal fins to establish which animals were hanging out together and where.

Dolphins in Cardigan Bay. Pic: Sarah Perry/WTSWW
Image:
Dolphins in Cardigan Bay. Pic: Sarah Perry/WTSWW

But now for the first time scientists are using DNA excreted by the dolphins in their poo to build a more complete picture of their lives.

It allows them to identify the sex of individuals and how they are related to other animals. Signficantly, it also shows what the dolphins have been eating.

Dolphin poo. Pic: Sarah Perry/WTSWW
Image:
Dolphin poo. Pic: Sarah Perry/WTSWW

Dr Sarah Perry, marine conservation manager at The Wildlife Trust of South and West Wales, said: “In order to be able to conserve them, we need to know why they’re here and a big a missing part of that is, what they’re feeding on.

“Is that changing at different times of the year? Are certain species of fish more important to them early on in the year, in the spring, and the summer months, and then does that change over the autumn and winter months?

“Are certain species important for younger animals? We don’t know that, so that kind of information, we need to find out.”

Dr Sarah Perry
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Dr Sarah Perry

Catching dolphin poo involves a large element of luck.

The animals occasionally eject a cloud of waste material as they swim.

But it quickly sinks, so the scientists’ boat needs to be close enough for them to scoop it out of the sea with a fine-meshed net.

A sample is then sent to a lab at the University of Aberystwyth, where DNA is extracted for analysis.

More from Sky News:
PM could scrap divisive policy
Bates attacks Post Office scheme

Scientists on the hunt for dolphin poo.
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Scientists on the hunt for dolphin poo

Dolphins adapting to effects of climate change

Results so far suggest the dolphins are having to adapt to a change in fish species as the water warms.

Dr Niall McKeown
Image:
Dr Niall McKeown

Dr Niall McKeown, a marine biologist at the university, said: “We are seeing large amounts of sardine, sprat, and anchovy.

“This is quite interesting because these are species that are known to have increased in abundance in Welsh waters in recent years in response, we believe, to climate change.”

A scientist analyses a sample
Image:
Dr Niall analyses a sample

Scientists unsure why dolphin numbers are falling

But questions remain about the dolphins.

The number in Cardigan Bay seems to be falling, but scientists are not sure whether that’s a natural cycle or a response to other factors.

Boat noise and disturbance from some fishing activities, such as scallop dredging, could impact the animals, which rely on sound to communicate.

Dr Parry said: “How lucky are we to have such an important population of dolphins here? It’s crazy that we really don’t know that much about them.”

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Sir Alan Bates attacks ‘kangaroo court’ Post Office scheme after ‘take it or leave it’ offer

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Sir Alan Bates attacks 'kangaroo court' Post Office scheme after 'take it or leave it' offer

Sir Alan Bates has accused the government of presiding over a “quasi kangaroo court” for Post Office compensation.

Writing in The Sunday Times, the campaigner, who led a years-long effort for justice for sub-postmasters, revealed he had been given a “take it or leave it” offer that was less than half of his original claim.

“The sub-postmaster compensation schemes have been turned into quasi-kangaroo courts in which the Department for Business and Trade sits in judgement of the claims and alters the goal posts as and when it chooses,” he said.

“Claims are, and have been, knocked back on the basis that legally you would not be able to make them, or that the parameters of the scheme do not extend to certain items.”

More than 900 sub-postmasters were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015 after faulty Horizon accounting software made it look as if money was missing from their accounts.

Many are still waiting for compensation despite the previous government saying those who had their convictions quashed were eligible for £600,000 payouts.

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‘It still gives me nightmares’

After the Post Office terminated his contract over a false shortfall in 2003, Sir Alan began seeking out other sub-postmasters and eventually took the Post Office to court.

More on Post Office Scandal

A group litigation order (GLO) scheme was set up to achieve redress for 555 claimants who took the Post Office to the High Court between 2017 and 2019.

Sir Alan, who was portrayed by actor Toby Jones in ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, has called for an independent body to be created to deliver compensation.

He added that promises the compensation schemes would be “non-legalistic” had turned out to be “worthless”.

It is understood around 80% of postmasters in Sir Alan’s group have accepted a full and final redress, or been paid most of their offer.

Read more:
Post Office scandal explained

Who are the key figures in the scandal?

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‘Lives were destroyed’

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson told Sky News: “We pay tribute to all the postmasters who’ve suffered from this scandal, including Sir Alan for his tireless campaign for justice, and we have quadrupled the total amount paid to postmasters since entering government.

“We recognise there will be an absence of evidence given the length of time which has passed, and we therefore aim to give the benefit of the doubt to postmasters as far as possible.

“Anyone unhappy with their offer can have their case reviewed by a panel of experts, which is independent of the government.”

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PM could lift controversial benefit cap in budget – as Farage makes two big election promises

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PM could lift controversial benefit cap in budget - as Farage makes two big election promises

Sir Keir Starmer could decide to lift the two-child benefit cap in the autumn budget, amid further pressure from Nigel Farage to appeal to traditional Labour voters.

The Reform leader will use a speech this week to commit his party to scrapping the two-child cap, as well as reinstating winter fuel payments in full.

The prime minister – who took Westminster by surprise at PMQs by revealing his intention to row back on the winter fuel cut – has previously said he would like to lift the two-child cap if the government could afford it.

There are now mounting suggestions an easing of the controversial benefit restriction may be unveiled when the chancellor delivers the budget later this year.

According to The Observer, Sir Keir told cabinet ministers he wanted to axe the measure – and asked the Treasury to look for ways to fund the move.

It comes after the government delayed the release of its child poverty strategy, which is expected to recommend the divisive cap – introduced by former Tory chancellor George Osborne – is scrapped.

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Why did Labour delay their child poverty strategy?

Ministers have already said any changes to winter fuel payments, triggered by mounting political pressure, would only be made when the government’s next fiscal event rolls round.

The Financial Times reported it may be done by restoring the benefit to all pensioners, with the cash needed being clawed back from the wealthy through the tax system.

The payment was taken from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested, and its unpopularity was a big factor in Labour’s battering at recent elections.

Before Wednesday’s PMQs, the prime minister and chancellor had insisted there would be no U-turn.

More from Sky News:
PM’s winter fuel claim ‘not credible’
Starmer vs Reeves – the ‘rift’ in Downing Street

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Will winter fuel U-turn happen?

Many Labour MPs have called for the government to do more to help the poorest in society, amid mounting concern over the impact of wider benefit reforms.

Former prime minister Gordon Brown this week told Sky News the two-child cap was “pretty discriminatory” and could be scrapped by raising money through a tax on the gambling industry.

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Brown questioned over winter fuel U-turn

Mr Farage, who believes Reform UK can win the next election, will this week accuse Sir Keir of being “out of touch with working people”.

In a speech first reported by The Sunday Telegraph, he is expected to say: “It’s going to be these very same working people that will vote Reform at the next election and kick Labour out of government.”

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