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Russia’s naval military might dwarf that of Ukraine, yet the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) continues to be targeted – and increasingly effectively – by Ukrainian forces.

Conventional military wisdom suggests the largest, best equipped military will prevail, yet Ukraine appears to have turned that principle on its head.

Why is Ukraine attacking the Russian Navy, and does this strategy expose a critical vulnerability for many of the world’s naval powers?

Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine recognised its Sevastopol-based navy could not match Russia’s BSF militarily, so those ships that could not escape – around 75% of the Ukrainian Navy – were captured by Russia, and the Ukrainian flagship Hetman Sahaidachny was scuttled to prevent it falling into Russian hands.

Turkey controls the Bosphorus Straights and denies the passage of any military vessels during the conflict, enabling the BSF to blockade the Black Sea and dominate Ukraine’s territorial waters.

However, a core principle of war is to avoid your enemy’s strength and attack their weakness, particularly if your enemy is superior in size and capability.

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Ukraine: Black Sea fleet chief killed

Ukraine has therefore leveraged technology to conduct a series of “asymmetric” attacks against the Russian BSF, including sinking the Moskva, targeting numerous ships and submarines with a mix of drones and missiles, and this past week, an audacious attack on the “brains” of the BSF – its military HQ.

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Ukraine, a nation with no military ships, has forced a superpower’s navy into retreat.

But why?

Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has halted Ukraine’s grain exports – a vital source of revenue – and limits Russia’s ability to launch an amphibious assault of the Ukraine port of Odesa.

By successfully targeting Russia’s naval capability – particularly its ships and submarines – it is making these traditional symbols of military supremacy into a critical Russian vulnerability, forcing the BSF to seek sanctuary further east, away from Ukraine.

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Kyiv claims major breakthrough

The success of Ukraine’s strategy has significant implications for Western military procurement.

Navy vessels – particularly large aircraft carriers – do not operate alone. A Carrier Group includes Cruisers, Destroyers or Frigates, Auxiliary support vessels and fast-attack submarines.

This represents powerful military capability, especially at scale, but when nations can only afford very limited numbers of these strategic assets, they cannot afford to be lost, and are thus very vulnerable to asymmetric attack.

And, with the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers costing more than £3bn each, they make an attractive target for an agile and innovative foe.

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Odesa drone explosion seen from ferry

Air forces are similarly vulnerable.

The US B2 is a uniquely capable aircraft, but at over $1bn each, only 20 were commissioned. At least those platforms have global reach and do not need to forward-deploy.

The Joint Strike Fighter will be sold in much larger numbers but at $100m each, national budgets will still limit numbers available.

Lessons will be learned elsewhere

And, although most military air bases (in Europe) have hardened aircraft shelters available to protect against drone/asymmetric attack, the current concept of operations is to forward-deploy, when these strategic assets will be increasingly vulnerable to an agile and innovative enemy.

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Ukraine has no navy, yet it has terrorised the Russian BSF, destroyed many of its strategic assets and destroyed its HQ, and forced Russia into retreating from the main battlefield.

Technology, innovation and determination have prevailed over conventional military capability. Instead of “biggest is the best”, the underdog can prevail.

Read more:
Survivors reveal dark cruelty of Russia’s detention centres
Why is Ukraine so successful in attacking key Russian military facilities?

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Ukraine retakes village near Bakhmut

Taiwan might not be able to match China militarily, but it will have learned valuable lessons from the Ukraine war.

However, so will North Korea, Iran, and a collection of nations that have traditionally been considered military “underdogs”.

Will the West’s military obsession with size and capability prove to be its critical vulnerability?

Although military numerical and capability supremacy remains an attractive option, Ukraine has demonstrated that agility, technology and adaptability can prove a compelling counter.

Which will not have passed unnoticed by potential adversaries!

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Hamas official thanks Donald Trump for peace deal – but tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome

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Hamas official thanks Donald Trump for peace deal - but tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome

A senior Hamas official has thanked President Donald Trump for his role in securing a peace deal with Hamas.

In an exclusive interview with Sky News’ lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim, senior Hamas official Dr Basem Naim also warned that former UK Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair would not be welcome in any post-war role for Gaza.

Dr Naim said a ceasefire would not have been possible without President Trump, but insisted he needed to continue to apply pressure to Israel to stick to the agreement.

He added that Hamas would be willing to step aside for a Palestinian body to govern a post-war Gaza, but that they would remain “on the ground” and would not be disarmed.

Dr Naim said in the interview: “Without the personal interference of President Trump in this case, I don’t think that it would have happened to have reached the end of the war.

“Therefore, yes, we thank President Trump and his personal efforts to interfere and to pressure Netanyahu to bring an end to this massacre and slaughtering.”

He added: “We believe and we hope that President Trump will continue to interfere personally and to exercise the maximum pressure on [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu to fulfil the obligation.

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“First, as according to the deal, and second, according to the international law as an occupying power, because I think without this, without this personal interference from President Trump, this will not happen.

“We have already seen Netanyahu speaking to the media, threatening to go to war again if this doesn’t happen, if that doesn’t happen.”

Donald Trump has been thanked for his role in securing a peace deal in Gaza. Pic: AP
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Donald Trump has been thanked for his role in securing a peace deal in Gaza. Pic: AP

Dr Naim said that weapons would only be handed over to the Palestinian state, with fighters integrated into the Palestinian National Army.

He reiterated that Hamas would not disarm as this could not guarantee the safety of Palestine.

Dr Naim said: “Our weapons are going to be handed over only to the hands of a Palestinian state, and our fighters can be integrated into the Palestinian National Army.

“No one has the right to deny us the right to resist the occupation of armies.”

He added: “We are not going to be disarmed as long as we are not sure that this will lead, by any other means, to having an independent self state which is able to defend itself.”

But he criticised plans for Sir Tony to play any role in the future of Gaza, saying that Hamas and Palestinians were angered by his role in previous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Dr Naim added: “When it comes to Tony Blair, unfortunately, we Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims and maybe others around the world have bad memories of him.

“We can still remember his role in killing, causing thousands or millions of deaths to innocent civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“We can still remember him very well after destroying Iraq and Afghanistan.”

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Thousands of Gazans are heading north as Israeli troops pull back.

Under Mr Trump’s plans, Sir Tony would form part of an international supervisory body.

The international body, the Council of Peace or Board of Peace, would govern under plans approved by Mr Netanyahu.

The body would hold most power while overseeing the administration of Palestinian technocrats running day-to-day affairs.

It would also hold the commanding role of directing reconstruction in Gaza.

Sir Tony Blair has been told he would not be welcome in a post-war Gaza
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Sir Tony Blair has been told he would not be welcome in a post-war Gaza

Dr Naim added that Hamas was satisfied Mr Trump’s plan would achieve peace in Gaza.

But he said it could never be fully satisfied after accusing Israel of genocide.

Israel has continually denied this, claiming it has been fighting Hamas terrorists to defend itself following the October 7 massacre in 2023.

On that day, Hamas gunmen stormed southern Israel killing 1,200 people and taking many Israelis hostage.

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Could the Gaza deal lead to something even bigger?

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Could the Gaza deal lead to something even bigger?

This is a historic moment for the Middle East. The coming days will be crucial. 

Critical for the immediate success of Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan. But also for hopes it could lead to something even more important, progress towards a broader peace.

There is plenty that could still go wrong. But so far so good.

Follow the latest updates on the Gaza ceasefire deal

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‘Things moving rapidly’ in Gaza as ceasefire takes effect

Hamas seems ready to give up its hostages believing American assurances Israel will not start the war again when they have.

And Israel is withdrawing its forces on the lines outlined in the deal.

If the deal does hold then what next?

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Here are the most pressing questions.

What becomes of Hamas? It is meant to disarm and not be part of any future government in Gaza. What if it goes back on that? What if it retreats to the shadows, regroups and rearms and goes back to its old ways?

Then, who is going to keep the peace? The plan is for an international peacekeeping force overseen by the Americans but not involving US troops on the ground, using soldiers from Arab countries and Turkey instead.

Will that force materialise and will it be effective? The history of peacekeeping operations in the region is not an encouraging one.

Then how is Gaza going to be run?

There’s been talk of a government of technocrats, people who know how to get things done, and of an oversight board run by President Trump, and of Tony Blair coming in as governor.

It will be a massive task. Rebuilding Gaza will cost billions of dollars and at the moment plans seem vague at best.

It could all come unstuck.

But then again, there are reasons for some optimism. Could this breakthrough lead to more sustained progress in efforts to build a lasting peace?

October 7th and the events that followed it including the Gaza war have changed so much in the Middle East.

Events have laid bare the utter futility of the past.

Read more:
How withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza could work
How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip

Israel’s policy of dividing and ruling the Palestinians and weakening them so they could never form their own state has ended in tragedy and colossal failure.

Hamas has brought its people nothing but misery and carnage.

There is on both sides a yearning for a new start.

There is also an American president who is prepared to put massive pressure on Israel unlike his predecessors and who is hungry for peace.

The region is lining up to push the chances of peace. President Trump has galvanised the likes of Turkey, Egypt and nations in the gulf.

In Israel there may be a fresh start. Its hardline right-wing government might have to give way to new leaders with new ideas.

And the country most likely to wreck the chances of progress, Iran, is massively weakened, pummelled by Israeli air power, and its allies and proxies humbled.

We should not over-egg the chances of further progress. In this rough neighbourhood there is always a multitude of reasons why this multi-stage deal might still fall apart, let alone lead to a much bigger peace.

But there is a chance now. The past two years have broken up the Middle East and so many of its old rules of operating. Putting it back together offers an opportunity.

It will require a huge amount of political will and leadership but there is the chance however slim of remaking the region in a way that gives its people a better future.

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Tennessee: Multiple people killed and others missing after explosion at military munitions plant

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Tennessee: Multiple people killed and others missing after explosion at military munitions plant

Multiple people have been killed and others are missing after an explosion at a Tennessee military munitions plant.

Secondary explosions have forced rescuers back from the burning site at Accurate Energetic Systems, according to the Hickman County Sheriff’s Office.

Humphreys County Sheriff Chris Davis told a news conference: “We do have several people at this time unaccounted for.

“We are trying to be mindful of families and that situation. We do have some folks. We can confirm that we do have some that are deceased.”

The explosion was reported at 7.45am in Hickman County on Friday. Pic: WTVF-TV / AP
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The explosion was reported at 7.45am in Hickman County on Friday. Pic: WTVF-TV / AP

The cause of the blast, which occurred at 7.45am on Friday (1.45pm in the UK), was not immediately known.

Video from the scene showed flames and smoke billowing from a field of debris.

Emergency crews were initially unable to enter the Tennessee plant because of continuing explosions, Hickman County Advanced MT David Stewart said.

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Pics: WTVF-TV / AP
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Pics: WTVF-TV / AP

Residents in Lobelville, a 20-minute drive from the scene, told the Associated Press that they felt their homes shake and some people captured the loud boom of the explosion on their home cameras.

Gentry Stover, who was woken from his sleep by the blast, said: “I thought the house had collapsed with me inside of it.

“I live very close to Accurate and I realised about 30 seconds after I woke up that it had to have been that.”

Read more from Sky News:
Hamas official tells Sky News Tony Blair not welcome
Liam Gallagher and Wayne Rooney among stars at Ricky Hatton funeral
Thomas Tuchel criticises England fans after Wales win

According to its website, Accurate Energetic Systems manufactures products for the defence, aerospace, demolition, and oil and gas industries

It adds that the company makes and tests explosives at an eight-building facility that sprawls across wooded hills near Bucksnort, a town about 60 miles southwest of Nashville.

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