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Russia’s naval military might dwarf that of Ukraine, yet the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) continues to be targeted – and increasingly effectively – by Ukrainian forces.

Conventional military wisdom suggests the largest, best equipped military will prevail, yet Ukraine appears to have turned that principle on its head.

Why is Ukraine attacking the Russian Navy, and does this strategy expose a critical vulnerability for many of the world’s naval powers?

Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine recognised its Sevastopol-based navy could not match Russia’s BSF militarily, so those ships that could not escape – around 75% of the Ukrainian Navy – were captured by Russia, and the Ukrainian flagship Hetman Sahaidachny was scuttled to prevent it falling into Russian hands.

Turkey controls the Bosphorus Straights and denies the passage of any military vessels during the conflict, enabling the BSF to blockade the Black Sea and dominate Ukraine’s territorial waters.

However, a core principle of war is to avoid your enemy’s strength and attack their weakness, particularly if your enemy is superior in size and capability.

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Ukraine: Black Sea fleet chief killed

Ukraine has therefore leveraged technology to conduct a series of “asymmetric” attacks against the Russian BSF, including sinking the Moskva, targeting numerous ships and submarines with a mix of drones and missiles, and this past week, an audacious attack on the “brains” of the BSF – its military HQ.

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Ukraine, a nation with no military ships, has forced a superpower’s navy into retreat.

But why?

Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea has halted Ukraine’s grain exports – a vital source of revenue – and limits Russia’s ability to launch an amphibious assault of the Ukraine port of Odesa.

By successfully targeting Russia’s naval capability – particularly its ships and submarines – it is making these traditional symbols of military supremacy into a critical Russian vulnerability, forcing the BSF to seek sanctuary further east, away from Ukraine.

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Kyiv claims major breakthrough

The success of Ukraine’s strategy has significant implications for Western military procurement.

Navy vessels – particularly large aircraft carriers – do not operate alone. A Carrier Group includes Cruisers, Destroyers or Frigates, Auxiliary support vessels and fast-attack submarines.

This represents powerful military capability, especially at scale, but when nations can only afford very limited numbers of these strategic assets, they cannot afford to be lost, and are thus very vulnerable to asymmetric attack.

And, with the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers costing more than £3bn each, they make an attractive target for an agile and innovative foe.

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Odesa drone explosion seen from ferry

Air forces are similarly vulnerable.

The US B2 is a uniquely capable aircraft, but at over $1bn each, only 20 were commissioned. At least those platforms have global reach and do not need to forward-deploy.

The Joint Strike Fighter will be sold in much larger numbers but at $100m each, national budgets will still limit numbers available.

Lessons will be learned elsewhere

And, although most military air bases (in Europe) have hardened aircraft shelters available to protect against drone/asymmetric attack, the current concept of operations is to forward-deploy, when these strategic assets will be increasingly vulnerable to an agile and innovative enemy.

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Ukraine has no navy, yet it has terrorised the Russian BSF, destroyed many of its strategic assets and destroyed its HQ, and forced Russia into retreating from the main battlefield.

Technology, innovation and determination have prevailed over conventional military capability. Instead of “biggest is the best”, the underdog can prevail.

Read more:
Survivors reveal dark cruelty of Russia’s detention centres
Why is Ukraine so successful in attacking key Russian military facilities?

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Ukraine retakes village near Bakhmut

Taiwan might not be able to match China militarily, but it will have learned valuable lessons from the Ukraine war.

However, so will North Korea, Iran, and a collection of nations that have traditionally been considered military “underdogs”.

Will the West’s military obsession with size and capability prove to be its critical vulnerability?

Although military numerical and capability supremacy remains an attractive option, Ukraine has demonstrated that agility, technology and adaptability can prove a compelling counter.

Which will not have passed unnoticed by potential adversaries!

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Former UN chief’s labelling of Gaza war as ‘genocide’ marks extraordinary shift

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Former UN chief's labelling of Gaza war as 'genocide' marks extraordinary shift

In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.

The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.

“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.

“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.

“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.

“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahu has the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”

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Ex-Israeli aide dismisses genocide claims

His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.

A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.

For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.

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‘We carry our coffins with us’

Read more:
How Gaza’s new aid rollout system collapsed into chaos
Israel’s illegal settlements – and those fighting back

The timing is also noteworthy.

Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.

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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”

Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.

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In full: The World with Yalda Hakim

Griffiths’ remarks now go a step further.

It comes as the British government continues to grapple with public anger over the mounting civilian toll – and faces growing scrutiny over its continued arms exports to Israel.

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Children ‘should be treated in UK’

This latest statement by Griffiths doesn’t just reflect humanitarian concern.

As a former ambassador, he knows the weight his words carry.

And with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsening, his warning challenges Israel’s allies to ask deeply uncomfortable questions.

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Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.

They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

Well over a third of Europe, including parts of holiday destinations like Spain, Greece and Italy, are now in drought.

March was Europe’s warmest on record – a trend driven by climate change – and also saw below average rain across large parts of the north and east of the continent.

Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.

It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.

But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.

On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.

More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS /  EDO
Image:
More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS / EDO

Heat was record high in March in Europe, while the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Image:
Heat was record high in March in Europe. The image on the right shows the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service

Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’

In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.

“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.

“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”

Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.

But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.

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‘Tropical nights’ soar in European hotspots

Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’

This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.

Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.

He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.

Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.

A family of geese walk across a partially dried-out section of the bed of the Woodhead Reservoir after a prolonged period without rain, which resulted in water levels dropping, near Tintwistle, Britain, May 13, 2025. REUTERS/Phil Noble
Image:
A drought was declared in northwest England on Thursday. Pic: Reuters

They found the drought of 2022, which spread across the Northern Hemisphere, was made 20 times more likely by climate change.

The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.

Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.

Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.

“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.

“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.

Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.

Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.

Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.

Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.

A tanker is swept away by floodwaters in Mokwa, Nigeria
Image:
A tanker is swept away by floodwaters


The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.

Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.

More on Climate Change

Flooding in Niger, Nigeria
Image:
Water appears to be flowing over a dam behind the town

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In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.

Nigeria is prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.

Read more:
More than 40% of Europe slides into drought
How melting ice is boosting Russia’s military

Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.

Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.

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