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As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.

Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.

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Truss’ time as PM, one year on

It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.

But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.

To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.

The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.

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Taxes are rising to near historic highs

The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.

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But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”

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Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’

And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.

“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”

Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.

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‘Not right to impose costs on people’

On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.

His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).

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‘Being gay isn’t enough to claim asylum’

“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”

But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.

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Labour: ‘We want HS2 to go ahead’

Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)

But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.

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As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”

Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.

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Everyone in UK ‘must step up’ to deter Russian threat of wider war, armed forces chief to warn

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Everyone in UK 'must step up' to deter Russian threat of wider war, armed forces chief to warn

The whole of the UK – not just its armed forces – needs to step up to deter the threat posed by Russia of a wider war in Europe, Britain’s military chief will say.

In the kind of nation-wide call to action that has not been heard since the height of the Cold War, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton will use a speech in London on Monday evening to urge the British public to make defence and resilience “a higher priority”.

He will say Russia’s war in Ukraine shows that Vladimir Putin’s willingness to target his neighbours “threatens the whole of NATO, including the UK. The Russian leadership has made clear that it wishes to challenge, limit, divide and ultimately destroy NATO”.

Yet there was nothing in excerpts of the speech – released in advance by the Ministry of Defence – that pointed to any push by Sir Keir Starmer’s government to increase defence spending faster than planned, despite the flashing warning signs and concerns among senior military officers that the budget is currently set to grow too slowly.

In a further articulation of the threat, Blaise Metreweli, the new head of MI6, will use a separate speech on Monday to warn that the “front line is everywhere” in a new “age of uncertainty”.

“The export of chaos is a feature not a bug in the Russian approach to international engagement,” she will say, in her first public comments since becoming the first female chief of the Secret Intelligence Service in October.

“We should be ready for this to continue until Putin is forced to change his calculus.”

More on Mi6

Read more:
Head of MI6: ‘Never seen the world in a more dangerous state’
NATO chief calls for 400% increase in air and missile defence

Defence and security chiefs across the NATO alliance are increasingly sounding the alarm about the potential for Russia’s war in Ukraine to ignite a much wider conflict.

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NATO ‘must prepare for scale of war our grandparents faced’, warns chief Mark Rutte

Mark Rutte, the head of NATO, last week said Europe must ready itself for a confrontation with Russia on the kind of scale “our grandparents and great-grandparents endured” – a reference to the First and Second World Wars.

At the same time, Al Carns, the UK’s armed forces minister, said Britain is “rapidly developing” plans to ready the entire country for the possible outbreak of war.

Sky News revealed last year that the UK had no national plan for the defence of the country or the mobilisation of its people.

By contrast, a detailed blueprint for the transition from a state of peace to one of war existed throughout the Cold War, setting out not just what the armed forces, emergency services and local governments had to do in the event of conflict, but also wider society, including people working in industry, schools and public transport.

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‘New era’ of threats from Russia, China and Iran

However, this Government War Book was quietly shelved after the Soviet Union collapsed and successive governments took a so-called “peace dividend”, shifting investment out of defence and into other priorities such as health and welfare.

Sky News and Tortoise have documented the hollowing out of the UK’s armed forces and wider national resilience in a podcast series called The Wargame.

The expected comments by Air Chief Marshal Knighton in an annual lecture at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) appear to signal an attempt by the government to put the country back on more of a war footing in the face of rising threats.

But military insiders have warned that a timeline set out by the government of 10 years to boost defence spending to 3.5% of GDP from 2.3% is far too slow.

👉 Click here to listen to The Wargame on your podcast app 👈

The chief of the defence staff will say: “The situation is more dangerous than I have known during my career and the response requires more than simply strengthening our armed forces. A new era for defence doesn’t just mean our military and government stepping up – as we are – it means our whole nation stepping up.”

He will nod to the planned uplift in spending, noting “the price of peace is increasing”.

He is set to say: “The war in Ukraine shows that Putin’s willingness to target neighbouring states, including their civilian populations, potentially with such novel and destructive weapons, threatens the whole of NATO, including the UK.”

This is a threat that wider society needs to prepare for as well as the military.

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Military analyst Sean Bell looks at the threat Russia poses

“Our armed forces always need to be ready to fight and win – that’s why readiness is such a priority,” Air Chief Marshal Knighton will say.

“But deterrence is also about our resilience to these threats, it’s about how we harness all our national power, from universities, to industry, the rail network to the NHS. It’s about our defence and resilience being a higher national priority for all of us. An ‘all-in’ mentality.”

It is a highly unusual intervention that has echoes of the Cold War when the UK last involved all of society in a programme of national defence and resilience against the threat of World War Three and potential nuclear Armageddon posed by the then Soviet Union.

“We are heading into uncertainty, and that uncertainty is becoming more profound, both as our adversaries become more capable and unpredictable, and as unprecedented technology change manifests itself,” Air Chief Marshal Knighton will say.

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Specialist teams and online investigators deployed across England and Wales to tackle ‘national emergency’ of violence against women and girls

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Specialist teams and online investigators deployed across England and Wales to tackle 'national emergency' of violence against women and girls

Specialist investigation teams for rape and sexual offences are to be created across England and Wales as the Home Secretary declares violence against women and girls a “national emergency”.

Shabana Mahmood said the dedicated units will be in place across every force by 2029 as part of Labour’s violence against women and girls (VAWG) strategy due to be launched later this week.

The use of Domestic Abuse Protection Orders (DAPOs), which had been trialled in several areas, will also be rolled out across England and Wales. They are designed to target abusers by imposing curfews, electronic tags and exclusion zones.

The orders cover all forms of domestic abuse, including economic abuse, coercive and controlling behaviour, stalking and ‘honour’-based abuse. Breaching the terms can carry a prison term of up to 5 years.

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Govt ‘thinking again’ on abuse strategy

Nearly £2m will also be spent funding a network of officers to target offenders operating within the online space.

Teams will use covert and intelligence techniques to tackle violence against women and girls via apps and websites.

A similar undercover network funded by the Home Office to examine child sexual abuse has arrested over 1,700 perpetrators.

More on Domestic Abuse

Abuse is ‘national emergency’

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a statement: “This government has declared violence against women and girls a national emergency.

“For too long, these crimes have been considered a fact of life. That’s not good enough. We will halve it in a decade.

“Today we announce a range of measures to bear down on abusers, stopping them in their tracks. Rapists, sex offenders and abusers will have nowhere to hide.”

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Angiolini Inquiry: Recommendations are ‘not difficult’

The target to halve violence against women and girls in a decade is a Labour manifesto pledge.

The government said the measures build on existing policy, including facial recognition technology to identify offenders, improving protections for stalking victims, making strangulation a criminal offence and establishing domestic abuse specialists in 999 control rooms.

Read more from Sky News:
Demands for violence and abuse reforms
Women still feel unsafe on streets
Minister ‘clarifies’ violence strategy

Labour has ‘failed women’

But the Conservatives said Labour had “failed women” and “broken its promises” by delaying the publication of the violence against women and girls strategy.

Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Philp, said that Labour “shrinks from uncomfortable truths, voting against tougher sentences and presiding over falling sex-offender convictions. At every turn, Labour has failed women.”

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UK has seen longest period without migrants arriving on small boats since 2018, figures show

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UK has seen longest period without migrants arriving on small boats since 2018, figures show

There have been no migrant arrivals in small boats crossing the Channel for 28 days, according to Home Office figures.

The last recorded arrivals were on 14 November, making it the longest uninterrupted run since autumn 2018 after no reported arrivals on Friday.

However, a number of Border Force vessels were active in the English Channel on Saturday morning, indicating that there may be arrivals today.

So far, 39,292 people have crossed to the UK aboard small boats this year – already more than any other year except 2022.

The record that year was set at 45,774 arrivals.

It comes as the government has stepped up efforts in recent months to deter people from risking their lives crossing the Channel – but measures are not expected to have an impact until next year.

Debris of a small boat used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel lays amongst the sand dunes in Gravelines, France. Pic: PA
Image:
Debris of a small boat used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel lays amongst the sand dunes in Gravelines, France. Pic: PA

December is normally one of the quietest for Channel crossings, with a combination of poor visibility, low temperatures, less daylight and stormy weather making the perilous journey more difficult.

The most arrivals recorded in the month of December is 3,254, in 2024.

Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with ministers from other European countries this week as discussions over possible reform to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) continue.

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France agrees to start intercepting small boats

The issue of small boat arrivals – a very small percentage of overall UK immigration – has become a salient issue in British politics in recent years.

Last month, French maritime police announced they would soon be able to intercept boats in the English Channel.

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