Beth Rigby: The Tories are struggling in the polls – can Team Rishi turn things around before the next election?

Published

2 years ago

September 30, 2023

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As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.

Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.

It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.

But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.

To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.

The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.

The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.

But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”

And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.

“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”

Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.

On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.

His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).

“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”

But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.

Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)

But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.

As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”

Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.

UK

In pictures: Donald Trump given royal welcome as UK state visit begins

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1 hour ago

September 17, 2025

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In pictures: Donald Trump given royal welcome as UK state visit begins

Donald Trump has kicked off his second state visit to the UK with a royal greeting, carriage procession and gun salute.

As the US president and the First Lady Melania Trump touched down in a rainy Windsor, they were greeted by Prince William and Kate, before meeting King Charles and Queen Camilla.

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The national anthems of the UK and US were then played as a carriage procession carried the Trumps and the King and Queen towards Windsor Castle.

Here, Mr Trump inspected the Guard of Honour before heading inside the castle. Tonight, a grand state banquet will be held in honour of the US president, where both the King and Mr Trump are expected to give speeches.

UK

Ricky Hatton was ‘in a good place’ before death, his family says

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1 hour ago

September 17, 2025

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Ricky Hatton was 'in a good place' before death, his family says

Ricky Hatton was “in a good place” before his death, his family has said – as the son of the boxing legend paid tribute to his father.

“Heartbroken isn’t the word,” Campbell Hatton said in the post, alongside a series of family photos.

“Everybody has always said I was your double – never a truer word said. Looked up to you in every aspect of life.”

Hatton was found dead at his home in Hyde, Greater Manchester, on Sunday. Police said there were no suspicious circumstances.

Campbell’s tribute came after others poured in from across the world of sport and beyond.

Like his father, Campbell pursued a career in boxing, making his professional debut in 2021. He retired earlier this year.

He added in his post: “Can’t explain how much I’m going to miss the laughs we had and all the good times, which I will remember forever. Just can’t believe we won’t have any more. Love you, Dad.”

Hatton had announced he was coming out of retirement for an exhibition bout on 2 December, in Dubai.

That would have marked 13 years since his last professional contest.

He was “excited for the future” before his death, his family said in a new statement on Wednesday.

“We are all distraught at the events of recent days,” they said.

“To all our knowledge, despite his well-documented struggles, Richard was in a good place.

“He was excited for the future; his bag was packed ready to go to Dubai to promote a comeback fight and he was planning a celebration in Dubai of which his beloved girls Millie and Fearne were to be the centre of. He was excited that they would see him fight for the first time in person.”

He had dinner with his girls on Friday night and “was not alone in life or in the days before the weekend”.

“We are all in shock at the events that unfolded at the weekend,” they said. “Richard was found by his friend and long-time manager Paul Speak, who we are supporting at this time, along with Richard’s parents, Ray and Carol, his children and the wider family.

“The outpouring of grief and love from the nation and worldwide shows how much Richard was loved. It will, in time, be something that gives us all some comfort and pride.”

Details of a memorial service would be released in due course, they added.

Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has said the city will give consideration to how best to honour Hatton’s memory properly in the weeks and months ahead.

‘The people’s champ’

It comes after soap star Claire Sweeney said she “adored and cherished” her ex-boyfriend. They were long-time friends and dated for several months after competing on Dancing On Ice in 2024.

Soap star Sweeney wrote on Instagram: “I’ve needed a few days to process the devastating news about my dear friend Ricky.

“My thoughts are with his family especially his children Campbell, Millie Fearne and Lyla, his granddaughter.

“Ricky, you were the people’s champ. We adored and cherished you. Love you always.”

She also posted a montage of photos of them together.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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Woman shot by husband on Valentine’s Day after trying to escape relationship

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1 hour ago

September 17, 2025

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Woman shot by husband on Valentine's Day after trying to escape relationship

A woman was shot and killed by her husband outside a pub on Valentine’s Day after trying to leave the relationship, an inquest heard.

Lisa Smith, 43, was shot twice in the neck in the car park of The Three Horseshoes in Knockholt, Kent, on 14 February this year.

She had earlier told her sister she was leaving her husband, Edward Smith, and had got on a train from their home in Slough to stay with family in Kent.

Mr Smith tracked her down at the pub that evening before blocking her friend’s car with his and firing four shots with a handgun, Kent and Medway Coroner’s Court heard.

On Wednesday, area coroner Katrina Hepburn concluded Ms Smith died from unlawful killing and found “requisite intent from Edward Smith to kill her or cause her really serious harm”.

After killing his wife, Mr Smith, also known as Edvard Stockings, sent voice notes to someone he called “Nana”, saying: “I’ve shot Lisa, she’s dead.”

He then jumped to his death from the Queen Elizabeth II bridge in Dartford later that evening.

In one of the voice notes he alluded to suicide and stated: “Hopefully I’m going to get into heaven with my wife.”

Detective Sergeant James Dolby told the court that Ms Smith was picked up at Orpington station by her friends and sister shortly before they went to the pub.

Just before 7pm, Ms Smith was in the passenger seat of her friend’s car in the pub car park when her husband arrived, having called her and her friends multiple times while looking for her.

There was a “verbal altercation” between him and Ms Smith’s sister, Laura, who called him a “narcissist” inside the pub before he got back in his car and left.

DS Dolby said Mr Smith then went on to block the Seat car from exiting.

The first two shots from his handgun were fired from inside his own vehicle.

The coroner said: “He pulled forward in the car and fired a second shot, he was seen to exit the vehicle with arms outstretched holding a handgun and firing a shot through the driver’s side car window.”

It was this third shot that caused “fatal damage” to Ms Smith’s neck, before he came around to the passenger side and fired at her again from close range.

“Four shots were fired, the first two from within his vehicle towards the Seat. There were no injuries consistent with the trajectory of those first two bullets,” said Ms Hepburn.

Despite CPR from members of the public and emergency services, Ms Smith died from her injuries at 7.42pm.

Setting out her conclusion, the coroner said: “I am satisfied on the balance of probabilities that a short form conclusion of unlawful killing would be safe and appropriate to set out in this manner.

“There was intent to find Lisa Smith after she had left her home address and once she was found the car she was seated in was blocked, preventing any exit.”

An inquest into the death of Mr Smith will take place this afternoon.