Beth Rigby: The Tories are struggling in the polls – can Team Rishi turn things around before the next election?
As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.
Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.
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Truss’ time as PM, one year on
It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.
But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.
To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.
The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.
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Taxes are rising to near historic highs
The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.
But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”
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Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’
And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.
“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”
Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.
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‘Not right to impose costs on people’
On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.
The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.
His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).
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‘Being gay isn’t enough to claim asylum’
“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”
But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.
But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.
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Labour: ‘We want HS2 to go ahead’
Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)
But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.
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As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”
Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
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Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
UK
Reward of £20,000 offered to identify parents of three siblings abandoned as babies over eight years
A £20,000 reward is being offered for information that leads to the identification of the parents of three siblings found abandoned in London over eight years.
The Metropolitan Police said that despite more than 450 hours of CCTV being reviewed, the parents of the three children, known as Elsa, Roman and Harry, remain unidentified.
However, it is believed their mother has lived in an area of east London “over the past six years”.
Elsa was believed to be less than an hour old when she was found by a dog walker on 18 January last year, in East Ham, east London.
In the months that followed it was found that she had two siblings who were also abandoned in similar circumstances, in the same area of London, in 2017 and 2019.
On Saturday, police said the independent group Crimestoppers had offered a £20,000 reward for information passed to the charity, which will expire on 18 April.
Detective Inspector Jamie Humm, of the Met’s child abuse investigation team, said: “We have carried out extensive inquiries over the past year to try and locate Elsa’s parents.
Baby Roman. Pic: Met Police/PA
Read more from Sky News:
The Commons venue that changed political history
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Missing sisters made earlier visit to same bridge
“This has involved reviewing over 450 hours of CCTV and completing a full DNA structure of the mother.
“We have serious concerns for the wellbeing of the parents, especially the mother, and are continuing to work closely with Newham Council and appeal for the public’s help for information.
“I believe that someone in the area will have been aware of the mother’s pregnancies and that within the community there may be (or) have been concerns for this mother’s welfare.
“Thanks to the DNA work of forensic colleagues, police will be able to eliminate any unconnected person quickly and easily, as such I would ask you to contact police with confidence.”
The baby was found at the junction of Greenway and High Street South in Newham. Pic: PA
Elsa was found wrapped in a towel in a reusable shopping bag, of which police have also released a new image, and was kept warm by the dog walker. She was uninjured.
Police said at the time that it was “highly likely” that she was born after a “concealed pregnancy”.
The Boots bag in which Baby Elsa was found abandoned by a dog walker in Newham on 18 January 2024. Pic: Met Police/PA
The BBC reported that at an initial court hearing, East London Family Court was told it took doctors three hours to record Elsa’s temperature because of the cold, and the Met Office said that temperatures dropped to as low as -4C on the night she was found.
Hospital staff named her Elsa in a reference to the character from the film Frozen.
The police investigation into the identity of the children’s parents continues, and anyone with information is asked to call police on 101 or post @MetCC ref Operation Wolcott.
People can also contact Crimestoppers anonymously at any time on 0800 555 111 or via Crimestoppers-uk.org.
Fresh appeals have been made for information on what would have been the 20th birthday of Ellis Cox, who was shot dead in Liverpool last June.
A number of people have been arrested in connection with the murder at Liver Industrial Estate, but no one has been charged yet.
The 19-year-old’s family and police have paid tribute to him and called for those with information to come forward.
He was shot in the back after a confrontation between his friends and another group of up to three males on Sunday 23 June.
Ellis Cox who was shot dead in June 2024. Pic: Merseyside Police
His mother Carolyn paid tribute in an appeal to coincide with what would have been his 20th birthday.
“He was so kind… so laid back, so calm, so mature for his age. And he was just funny. Very funny.
“He was my baby… no mum should have to bury a child. He was my life. And I don’t know what to do without him.”
Mum Carolyn Cox (left) and aunt Julie O’Toole (right) are looking for answers
Ellis’ mum described him as ‘kind” and “funny. Pic: Merseyside Police
Meanwhile, his aunt Julie O’Toole said he was “the sort of person I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything negative about. He was loyal, fiercely loyal… everything was about his family”.
To pay tribute to Ellis, Liverpool City Council will be lighting up the Cunard Building and Liverpool Town Hall in orange on Saturday.
DCI Steve McGrath does not believe Ellis was involved in criminality
Detective Chief Inspector Steve McGrath, the senior investigating officer, spoke about the information gathered so far, six months on from Mr Cox’s murder.
“I’m satisfied that the group that he was with was probably the target… and I would say that’s got something in relation to do with localised drug dealing in that area. But Ellis had no involvement in that whatsoever,” he said.
He added that police are looking for “really significant pieces of evidence now”, including “trying to recover the firearm that was used in relation to this, looking to recover the bikes that were used by the offenders”.
Read more from Sky News:
The Commons venue that changed political history
Link between A&E waiting times and chance of death
Missing sisters made earlier visit to same bridge
Mrs Cox also appealed for people to come forward with information.
“If you know anything, don’t let us get to [his] next birthday and still know nothing.
“We need to get justice for Ellis. And we need to get the people who took him from us off the streets.”
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