Beth Rigby: The Tories are struggling in the polls – can Team Rishi turn things around before the next election?

Published

2 years ago

September 30, 2023

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As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.

Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.

It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.

But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.

To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.

The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.

The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.

But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”

And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.

“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”

Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.

On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.

His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).

“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”

But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.

Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)

But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.

As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”

Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.

UK

Southend Airport remains closed after ‘fireball’ plane crash

Published

2 hours ago

July 14, 2025

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Southend Airport remains closed after 'fireball' plane crash

Southend Airport has been closed until further notice after a small plane crashed – as video footage emerged showing the aftermath of a huge fireball.

Images posted online showed large flames and a cloud of black smoke following the incident on Sunday afternoon.

Essex Police said it responded to “reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane” shortly before 4pm.

“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours,” the statement said.

“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”

Southend Airport said it would be “closed until further notice” due to the “serious incident”.

“We ask that any passengers due to travel (on Monday) via London Southend Airport contact their airline for information and advice,” it added.

Zeusch Aviation, based at Lelystad Airport in the Netherlands, confirmed its SUZ1 flight had been “involved in an accident” at the airport and its thoughts were with “everyone who has been affected”.

It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.

According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.

Pilots ‘waved’ to families watching planes

One man, who was at the airport with his wife and children, told Sky News the plane crashed within seconds of taking off.

John Johnson said the pilots “waved” at his family as they taxied the aircraft.

“We all waved [back] at them,” he continued. “They carried on taxiing to their take-off point and turned around.

“Then they throttled up the engines and passed by us. The aircraft took off and within a few seconds it had a steep bank angle to its left.”

The aircraft then “almost seemed to invert and unfortunately crashed,” he said. “There was a large fireball.”

‘Airport was in lockdown’

Wren Stranix, 16, from Woodbridge in Suffolk, was in another aircraft waiting to take off for Newquay, Cornwall, with her family and boyfriend when the plane came down.

They watched from their aircraft as the emergency services arrived and were not able to leave their seats.

“The flight attendant didn’t know what was going on,” she told Sky News. “They said the plane had exploded and they didn’t know if it was safe or not. The airport was in lockdown.”

They were eventually allowed back in the terminal to wait before all flights were cancelled.

Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.

After the incident, EasyJet – one of just a few airlines that uses the airport – said all of its remaining flights to and from Southend had been “diverted to alternative airports or are no longer able to operate”.

The airline said it has contacted customers who were due to travel on Sunday. Anyone due to fly on Monday should check online for up-to-date information, it added.

Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.

The East of England Ambulance Service said four ambulances, four hazardous area response team vehicles and an air ambulance had been sent to the incident.

David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, asked people to keep away from the area and “allow the emergency services to do their work” in a post on social media.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was “monitoring the situation closely and receiving regular updates”.

Essex Police have set up a dedicated public portal and phone line where people can contact them about the crash at https://esxpol.uk/LIbaz and on 0800 0961011.

Chief Superintendent Morgan Cronin said: “In these very early stages it is vital we gather the information we need, and continue supporting the people of Essex.”

He added: “We are working closely with all at the scene, as well as the Air Accident Investigation Branch, to establish what has happened today and why.”

UK

Gregg Wallace: Half the allegations against MasterChef presenter substantiated, including one of unwanted physical contact

Published

4 hours ago

July 14, 2025

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Gregg Wallace: Half the allegations against MasterChef presenter substantiated, including one of unwanted physical contact

An investigation into Gregg Wallace’s “inappropriate behaviour” on MasterChef has found that more than half of the allegations against him have been substantiated, including one of “unwanted physical contact”.

MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK shared a summary of its report into historical allegations of misconduct against the 60-year-old presenter, carried out by independent law firm Lewis Silkin over seven months.

The report also said the number of sustained allegations made Wallace’s return to MasterChef “untenable”.

The investigation heard evidence from 78 witnesses, including 41 complainants.

There were 83 allegations against Wallace, and 45 of them were substantiated. All were related to MasterChef.

While the majority of the substantiated allegations related to inappropriate sexual language and humour, a smaller number of allegations of other inappropriate language and being in a state of undress were also substantiated.

One allegation of unwanted physical contact was substantiated.

Nearly all the allegations against Wallace were related to behaviour which is said to have occurred between 2005 and 2018, with just one substantiated allegation taking place post-2018.

Ahead of the publication of the summary, Wallace had said he had been “cleared of the most serious and sensational accusations” made against him.

Additionally, the report summary found that there were also 10 standalone allegations about other people between 2012 and 2018/2019, two of which were substantiated. Those people were not named in the summary.

The investigation found that complaints had previously been raised with the production company between 2005 and 2024.

While the report flagged inadequate reporting procedures prior to 2016, when Endemol merged with Shine ahead of Banijay acquiring Endemol Shine in 2020, it said there were significant improvements to HR processes and training after 2016.

While the investigation said some formal action was taken by the BBC in 2017, it also noted the corporation held no information regarding concerns raised over Wallace centrally, resulting in issues being addressed as a first offence.

Sky News has tried to contact Gregg Wallace for contact today.

UK

Palace confirms dates of Trump’s state visit – as King and Queen to host him at Windsor Castle

Published

11 hours ago

July 14, 2025

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Palace confirms dates of Trump's state visit - as King and Queen to host him at Windsor Castle

The dates for Donald Trump’s state visit to the UK have been announced, with the US president due to be welcomed by the King from 17 to 19 September.

Buckingham Palace also confirmed that President Trump and first lady Melania will be hosted by the King and Queen at Windsor Castle.

It was expected that the three-day state visit would take place in September after Mr Trump let slip earlier in April that he believed that was when his second “fest” was being planned for.

Windsor was also anticipated to be the location after the US president told reporters in the Oval Office that the letter from the King said Windsor would be the setting. Refurbishment works at Buckingham Palace also meant that Windsor was used last week for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit.

This will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, an unprecedented gesture towards an American leader, having previously been invited to Buckingham Palace in 2019.

He has also been to Windsor Castle before, in 2018, but despite the considerable military pageantry of the day, and some confusion around inspecting the guard, it was simply for tea with Queen Elizabeth II.

Further details of what will happen during the three-day visit in September will be announced in due course.

On Friday, Sky News revealed it is now unlikely that the US president will address parliament, usually an honour given to visiting heads of state as part of their visit. Some MPs had raised significant concerns about him being given the privilege.

But the House of Commons will not be sitting at the time of Mr Trump’s visit as it will rise for party conference season on the 16 September, meaning the president will not be able to speak in parliament as President Macron did during his state visit this week. However, the House of Lords will be sitting.

In February this year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer presented the US president with the letter from the King inviting him to visit during a meeting at the White House.

After reading it, Mr Trump said it was a “great, great honour”, adding “and that says at Windsor – that’s really something”.

In the letter, the King suggested they might meet at Balmoral or Dumfries House in Scotland first before the much grander state visit. However, it is understood that, although all options were explored, complexities in both the King and Mr Trump’s diaries meant it wasn’t possible.

This week, it emerged that Police Scotland are planning for a summer visit from the US president, which is likely to see him visit one or both of his golf clubs in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire, and require substantial policing resources and probably units to be called in from elsewhere in the UK.

Precedent for second-term US presidents, who have already made a state visit, is usually tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.