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We’re down to the final days of the 2023 regular season. Most teams are looking ahead to 2024, while others are focused on October — and the fates of a few squads still hang in the balance.

Despite the Rangers’ cushion atop the American League West, a season-ending series against the Mariners along with the Astros not trailing far behind means those three teams will be duking it out until the very end. Likewise, five teams remain alive in the National League wild-card race, all fighting for the final two spots.

Which teams will get to keep playing into October, and which will see their 2023 playoff aspirations end?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 25 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings

Record: 102-56

Previous ranking: 1

As the Braves close in on the single-season team home run record, there’s no doubting their offense as they get ready for the playoffs. The pitching, however, suddenly has some concerns. Max Fried is out with a blister, although he’s expected back for the NLDS. Charlie Morton will definitely miss the NLDS with a finger injury. Bryce Elder‘s ERA has climbed from 2.97 in the first half to 5.11 in the second. The bullpen has struggled in September with an ERA over 5.00. Even Spencer Strider has a 5.72 ERA over his past five starts as the big inning continues to plague him. Looks like they’re going to have to hit a lot of those home runs in October. — Schoenfield


Record: 99-59

Previous ranking: 2

It’s been a bittersweet week in Baltimore baseball. As the Orioles move ever closer to cementing their first AL East title since 2014, the city is mourning the passing of Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson. Widely remembered as one of the great defenders in baseball history, Robinson began his big league career in 1955 and ended it as a grizzled veteran at age 40 in 1977 — and he did it all as an Oriole. As for that glove at third base, Robinson’s 16 Gold Gloves are a pretty fair testament to how his prowess was viewed during his career. But it’s worth noting that advanced metrics, calculated long after he retired, love his defense as well. According to the fielding runs metric at baseball-reference.com, Robinson is far and away the all-time leader (293) of any player at any position. — Doolittle


Record: 98-60

Previous ranking: 3

His shoulder is barking and his velocity is dropping, yet Clayton Kershaw continues to find a way. On Saturday night, in what could be the last regular-season start at Dodger Stadium in his career, Kershaw threw five scoreless innings against a Giants team still vying for the playoffs at that point. It dropped his ERA on the season to 2.42. Kershaw, 35, will be limited in October; he hasn’t been allowed to pitch into the sixth inning in seven starts since coming off the injured list and has had at least five days of rest in between each of them. But he continues to be effective. The Dodgers’ shorthanded rotation will desperately need more of that in October. — Gonzalez


Record: 97-62

Previous ranking: 4

The subject of the newest chapter in the epic-length novel “Do Not Trade With the Rays” is Junior Caminero. The 20-year-old third baseman was promoted last week after beginning the season in the High-A South Atlantic League. Caminero, so far, has skipped Triple-A altogether after putting up a .921 OPS in Double-A. Caminero is still listed as the 6-foot-1, 157-pound teenager he used to be, but reports now suggest that he’s more like 6-3, 190 pounds, and that shows up in his power bat. And as for that trade: Caminero was acquired from Cleveland in November 2021 for pitcher Tobias Myers, who has since moved on to the Giants, White Sox and, presently, the Brewers. Don’t trade with the Rays. Caminero is eligible to appear in the postseason if the Rays so desire. — Doolittle


Record: 89-69

Previous ranking: 9

The Rangers reasserted themselves again in the AL West with a dominant weekend performance against division rival Seattle. They outpitched and outhit the Mariners, nearly locking up the division in the process. Sometimes your stars simply have to be your stars, and both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien brought their lumber in Sunday’s 9-8 win. Semien hit his 26th and 27th home runs while Seager went deep for the 33rd time. He produced hits in all six Rangers wins last week after going 0-for-12 in his previous three games. In any other year, Seager would be the clear AL MVP winner considering his OPS is over 1.000, but with Shohei Ohtani around, he’ll have to settle for second or perhaps third place. — Rogers


Record: 89-69

Previous ranking: 7

The Phillies clinched a wild-card berth and the No. 4 seed on Johan Rojas’ walk-off single in the 10th inning Tuesday. While it’s been a mixed bag from the Phillies’ stars in 2023, Rojas is one of several secondary players who has come up big. He has hit well in his rookie season while starting against right-handed pitchers, but most importantly, he has been so good in center field that he pushed Brandon Marsh to left field (and Kyle Schwarber to DH), drastically improving the Phillies’ defense. Marsh and Bryson Stott have had solid years at the plate, although Stott has slumped in September. Jeff Hoffman has been huge out of the pen, and rookie call-up Orion Kerkering was so impressive in his debut that he may end up playing a key role out of the bullpen in the postseason. “I hope we can win this thing this year,” Zack Wheeler said in the clinching celebration. — Schoenfield


Record: 89-69

Previous ranking: 6

Mark Canha has been a great addition at the plate for Milwaukee, compiling a lofty OBP since coming over from the Mets. He’s helped the Brewers to yet another division title and playoff appearance under manager Craig Counsell. This year, they have some rare balance in their lineup to go along with their big three on the mound, giving prognosticators something to think about for next month. Can they upset L.A. and/or Atlanta? It’s a longshot, but Milwaukee has as good a chance as ever considering it’s the best equipped to keep its opponent in the ballpark — a trademark of the Braves and Dodgers. — Rogers


Record: 87-71

Previous ranking: 8

Big-money free agent deals generally carry a lot more downside than upside. That’s especially true of pitchers. Nevertheless, two years into the five-year pact the Blue Jays gave Kevin Gausman, the deal looks like a winner. After a successful 2022 season that saw Gausman lead the AL in FIP and finish ninth in Cy Young balloting, he’s been even better in 2023, his age-32 campaign. Gausman, who leads the AL in strikeout rate and strikeouts alike, is likely to top 190 innings and should easily land in the top five of Cy Young balloting. Over the last two years, the only AL pitcher with more strikeouts than Gausman’s 442 is Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. — Doolittle


Record: 87-72

Previous ranking: 5

If you set aside the 2020 shortened season during which it was also dealing with fallout from the sign-stealing scandal, this has arguably been the most trying season for Houston since it emerged from its rebuild in 2015. The next few days will determine just how trying it has been, as the Astros continue to teeter on the precipice of falling out of the postseason altogether. The pitching staff is running on fumes, which is the case even after Justin Verlander‘s eight-inning gem in Seattle on Monday. During September, the staff ERA is middle of the pack, but the rotation is in the bottom third of MLB. The rookie back of the rotation (J.P. France and Hunter Brown) have fallen off, combining for a 7.50 ERA over nine September starts. — Doolittle


Record: 85-73

Previous ranking: 11

While the Twins wait out decisions on the postseason statuses of ailing position players like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, the pitching depth chart is rounding into as good a shape as it’s been in some time. Speaking to reporters this week, manager Rocco Baldelli said that his playoff rotation will be led by Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray, as expected. Joe Ryan figures to be the third guy. Meanwhile, an already solid bullpen will be bolstered by two fresh injury returnees: Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart. Paddack tossed his first big league pitches since May 8 of last season on Tuesday, throwing two innings against Oakland. The best sign: Paddack’s stuff played up in his relief role, as his four-seamer touched a career-best 99 mph, per TruMedia. — Doolittle


Record: 85-73

Previous ranking: 10

It all comes down to the final four-game series against the Rangers — a team that has owned the Mariners with an 8-1 record, including last weekend’s three-game sweep in Texas. In some ways, it’s been a frustrating season: The Mariners are 16 games over .500 against the A’s and Royals and under .500 against everyone else. On the other hand, they’ve had to make some in-season adjustments as Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales combined for just 53 innings and minus-0.5 WAR (and Chris Flexen went 0-4 as the initial replacement for Ray). The bullpen had to replace three key relievers from last season — Diego Castillo was released in April, Erik Swanson was traded and Penn Murfee got hurt. The offseason pickups on offense (AJ Pollock, Kolten Wong, Cooper Hummel and Tommy La Stella) combined for minus-2.3 WAR, certainly a big strike against president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. So the Mariners are probably right where they should be: fighting to get to October. — Schoenfield


Record: 84-74

Previous ranking: 12

The D-backs recently offered a convenient snapshot of how wacky the wild-card races have been this year. They were swept by the lowly Mets but have followed that up by winning eight times in a stretch of 10 games, with five of those wins coming against the Cubs and Giants. Only 3½ games separate the D-backs, Cubs, Marlins and Reds for the second and third NL wild-card spots, but the D-backs lead that group, two games ahead of the Marlins and Cubs for the No. 2 spot with four games remaining. Arizona’s last three games will come against an Astros team fighting for its own playoff spot, but it looks as if Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly will start two of them. It’s going to be a fight until the very end. — Gonzalez


Record: 82-76

Previous ranking: 13

A critical week for the Cubs began in Atlanta after a much-needed weekend sweep of the Rockies at home, making up for Chicago losing two of three in Denver earlier this month. First baseman Jared Young hit a home run in Friday’s win while third baseman Miles Mastrobuoni — arguably fourth on the depth chart — had two hits in Saturday’s victory. Having said that, Jeimer Candelario‘s return from a back injury will be a key addition while closer Adbert Alzolay may not be far behind. The Cubs need all hands on deck in the bullpen this week as they attempt to secure a playoff spot. — Rogers


Record: 82-76

Previous ranking: 14

Hey, with one game against the Mets on Thursday and three in Pittsburgh, the Marlins are still in it. Tuesday’s cancellation in New York due to field conditions that forced Wednesday’s doubleheader was a tough blow, however, as Braxton Garrett was scheduled to start that game and then the season finale on Sunday — a game that will likely have wild-card implications. Now, Garrett would have to start on short rest if he pitches. One big key: The Marlins hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Reds, so all they have to do is tie one of those three teams for the final spot and they’re in. — Schoenfield


Record: 81-78

Previous ranking: 15

The loss to the Pirates after leading 9-0 on Saturday may have been the last straw for the Reds’ playoff hopes. They simply couldn’t afford a loss like that as they’re looking up at three teams in the wild-card race. Though they have a good, young rotation, they haven’t produced in 2023, ranking near the bottom of the majors in ERA. The bullpen hasn’t been much better as three different relievers gave up at least three runs in Saturday’s collapse. The chances remain slim that the Reds make the postseason, but it’s been a good year for Cincinnati, nonetheless, as it debuted a bunch of talented players. Now comes the hard part: All of them taking the next big step. — Rogers


Record: 81-77

Previous ranking: 16

What a year it’s been for New York baseball. The Yankees are on target to suffer one of the steepest declines in their record from 2022 to 2023 of any team in baseball. One of the few teams to have fallen off farther are their Big Apple counterparts, the Mets. Whether or not the Yankees manage to remain over .500 and keep their streak of non-losing seasons alive, this has been a startling plunge in the Bronx. If the Yankees finish, say, 82-80, that would be a 17-win decline over 2022. If that happens, it would be New York’s largest year-over-year drop since 1965 (based on 162 games, prorating for shortened seasons). And those 1965 Yanks, managed by Johnny Keane, are largely remembered as the club that represents the collapse of baseball’s most historic dynasty. What a year indeed. — Doolittle


Record: 79-80

Previous ranking: 19

Monday’s eighth inning screamed for Josh Hader, with Robert Suarez tiring, the Padres clinging to a one-run lead, a left-handed hitter due up and four outs remaining. But Hader isn’t available for four-out saves, a reality the team understood when it acquired him at midseason in 2022, and the Padres ultimately lost, moving to the brink of elimination. Later, manager Bob Melvin sounded perturbed by the reality of not being able to use his lights-out closer in a critical spot. Hader’s reasoning, on the verge of free agency, was deeply unsatisfying. It underscored some of the potential clubhouse issues rival coaches have pointed to as a reason the Padres have been so deeply disappointing this season. — Gonzalez


Record: 78-81

Previous ranking: 17

The Giants were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Tuesday, but their ace, Logan Webb, looked ahead a day earlier. After twirling a complete game in a win over the Padres on Monday night, Webb alluded to internal issues that might have prevented the Giants from seriously contending in 2023, telling reporters: “I’m tired of losing. It’s not fun. We’ve got to make some big changes in here to create that winning culture. We want to show up every single year and try to win the whole thing. I mean, I think we’re there. I don’t know what it is.” The Giants are three years removed from a shocking 107-win season, but they’ve missed the playoffs six out of the last seven years. They’ll probably chase a superstar again this offseason. — Gonzalez


Record: 76-82

Previous ranking: 18

The Red Sox’s season will be remembered as a disappointment. Still, you can argue that based on preseason projections, Boston more or less met expectations. That expectations had fallen so low, is why the Chaim Bloom tenure is over. As Boston reconfigures its leadership structure and the injury-battered team limps to the finish line, the marquee franchise finds itself at an inflection point. The news isn’t all bad though, as the number of successful prospect graduations over the last couple of years hints at a stronger foundation going forward. — Doolittle


Record: 75-84

Previous ranking: 20

Final thoughts on the 2023 Guardians: First, not the best of sendoffs for Terry Francona, but with two World Series titles with the Red Sox, one pennant in Cleveland and ranking 13th all time in wins, he’ll be headed to Cooperstown, and baseball will miss his presence. Now to the players. Triston McKenzie returned from his long IL stint but walked six batters in 1⅔ innings. Let’s hope he’s healthy and right for next season to join the impressive rookie starters who debuted this season, including Tanner Bibee, who might finish second to Gunnar Henderson for Rookie of the Year. Emmanuel Clase lost nine games and blew 12 saves — it might have been a different season if he had been as lights out as last year. Most importantly: The Guardians have to find some power in the outfield. — Schoenfield


Record: 74-83

Previous ranking: 21

Miguel Cabrera‘s final season could be remembered as a transitional season, one that bridged the Miggy era and the one that comes next. For that perception to take hold, the Tigers will have to keep getting better, but this has been a season of progress. That will be the case whether or not they manage to nudge out the Guardians for second place in the AL Central, which would be Detroit’s best finish since 2016. The Tigers have a lot of work left to do to rediscover the heights of Cabrera’s best teams, but they are one of the few clubs in the majors who can point to this season as one of steady, consistent and persistent improvement. We’ve been here before with the Tigers — the franchise seemed to be at a turning point after a 77-85 finish in 2021 — but Cabrera appears to be leaving a club on the ascension. — Doolittle


Record: 72-86

Previous ranking: 22

Let’s take a final report on the Mets rookies. Francisco Alvarez was both a pleasant surprise (excellent pitch framing metrics) and a disappointment (low average and OBP). His chase rate was better than average, but the swing-and-miss rate was too high, and he had a very low BABIP — although not due to bad luck. He just didn’t square up enough balls. It seems like a pitch selection issue that should improve with experience. Brett Baty hardly solidified himself as the third baseman of the future. He has decent raw power but too much swing-and-miss, below-average defense, and he hits the ball on the ground too much. Ronny Mauricio probably gets a chance at the second base job next year and showed good exit velocities, but he needs to tighten up the strike zone for the offense to develop. I’m not sure these three will be a strong foundation, although Alvarez has a chance to turn into a star. — Schoenfield


Record: 74-84

Previous ranking: 24

The spoiler role has suited the Pirates well lately as they took road series from both the Cubs and Reds last week. Pittsburgh’s win on Saturday in Cincinnati was historic. The Pirates were 0-819 all-time when trailing by at least nine runs in a game, as they got down 9-0 before winning 13-12. Jared Triolo’s MLB career is off to a decent start. The 2019 second-round pick had four hits in Saturday’s win, raising his batting average to nearly .300. He could be an intriguing player moving forward as the Pirates have several talented infielders on their roster, including the injured Oneil Cruz. — Rogers


Record: 71-88

Previous ranking: 23

Mike Trout was uncharacteristically emotional while discussing his recent string of ailments earlier this week. The frustration of a season in which his body felt good but a fractured hamate bone on a swing limited him to 82 games, was too strong to keep from spilling out. There are major questions surrounding each of the Angels’ three superstars going into this offseason, with Shohei Ohtani set for free agency, Anthony Rendon being a non-factor these last three years and rumors swirling about a potential Trout trade. Trout kept his answers relatively vague when talking about his Angels future, but the reality is that his contract (nearly $250 million remaining over the next seven years) and recent injuries (he will have played in just 237 of a possible 486 games since 2021) make a trade seem unlikely. Trout needs to get healthy. And his Angels need a long-term plan. — Gonzalez


Record: 69-89

Previous ranking: 25

The misery comes to an end this week for St. Louis fans who never really saw their team go on a run. Even the A’s and Royals have provided some excitement with a few big series wins, but not the Cardinals. If their pitching issues weren’t enough, they just completed one of their worst weeks at the plate, hitting .189 over a six-game span ending on Tuesday. While the Rangers hit 16 home runs over the past seven days, St. Louis hit just two, leading to a measly .549 overall OPS for the week. The Cardinals need a reset. They’ll get a long one soon enough. — Rogers


Record: 69-90

Previous ranking: 26

It’s been a rough September as the Nationals have won just one series (against the White Sox). They have a ton of rebuilding to do. They’ve allowed the most home runs and second-most runs in the NL, while hitting the fewest home runs themselves. Another area of focus will be improving the team defense, which ranks in the bottom five in the majors in defensive runs saved. Catcher Keibert Ruiz is the biggest problem there, ranking in the bottom 10% in Statcast metrics for pitch blocking, caught stealing rate, pitch framing and pop time. He’s a great contact hitter but the defense will have to improve. — Schoenfield


Record: 60-98

Previous ranking: 27

Luis Robert Jr.’s season is over after he injured his knee sliding into second base in Boston over the weekend. It means he won’t reach 40 home runs, falling two short. He was clearly the team’s best player this year, and it wasn’t even close. Robert hit 25 more home runs than his previous high while driving in 24 more runs than he ever has. He played great defense, too, but he also struck out more, whiffing 172 times while taking just 30 walks. That’s the next level for him to achieve: a more disciplined approach at the plate while keeping his power intact. — Rogers


Record: 57-101

Previous ranking: 28

The Rockies have lost 100 games for the first time in franchise history, and they got there in fitting fashion — in a blowout loss against the Dodgers, the division rivals who have dominated them in recent years. Their starting rotation — decimated by the loss of German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela, among others — has the worst ERA in the majors. And their most expensive player, Kris Bryant, has been a below-average hitter while missing lots of time due to injuries over these last two years. The Rockies, in short, are a mess. And they could be for a while. — Gonzalez


Record: 54-103

Previous ranking: 29

For the third time since 2018, the Royals lost 100-plus games. The organization remains directionless and shows no signs that improvement is coming. Bobby Witt Jr. was fun and is one home run away from joining the 30/30 club while Cole Ragans was a steal coming over from the Rangers, but some of the young hitters failed to improve (MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Kyle Isbel) and Brady Singer regressed. Needless to say, Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles didn’t help as veteran stopgaps, and it’s sad to see that 1-15 record next to Greinke’s name. The rotation and bullpen have ERAs over 5.00. On the bright side, they did just win 10 out of 11, including playing spoiler with a three-game sweep of the Astros. Maybe some momentum for 2024! — Schoenfield


Record: 48-110

Previous ranking: 30

You have to go all the way back to 1916, when the franchise was located in Philadelphia, to find an A’s team that lost more games than the current group. A 26-year-old outfielder named Wally Schang led that Philadelphia A’s team in home runs with seven; 22-year-old right-hander Elmer Myers led them in innings with 315. It was a different game then, long before the term “war” could be applied as a measurement of baseball acumen. Speaking of WAR — Zack Gelof leads the current A’s in FanGraphs’ version of that stat, by a healthy margin, even though he has only been a major league player since the middle of July. It’s his Roaring Twenties, one might say. — Gonzalez

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GMs tell their best (and wildest) trade stories: ‘Uncle Mike would have absolutely loved that you executed a trade at his funeral’

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GMs tell their best (and wildest) trade stories: 'Uncle Mike would have absolutely loved that you executed a trade at his funeral'

From births to funerals — and everywhere in between — the job of a major league baseball general manager is never done. That is especially the case this time of year, when talks heat up in advance of the July 31 trade deadline.

Calls and texts can come at the most inopportune times for front office members, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to go unanswered. After all, there’s always another team willing to do a deal.

With that in mind, we asked MLB executives to tell us their favorite trade stories.

Trade talks at the most inopportune times

‘We went back and looked at the time stamp of when he had sent texts and when the baby was born’

Brewers general manager Matt Arnold and Dodgers president Andrew Friedman worked together in the Tampa Bay Rays front office before moving on to their current jobs. Arnold was an assistant to Friedman, who was the executive vice president of baseball operations.

“We had two different trade deadlines with Andrew in the hospital,” Arnold recalled. “One year his appendix almost burst. He was doubled over in a lot of pain and we ended up having the doctor come to the stadium.”

Friedman was rushed to the hospital, where the Rays’ staff spent the trade deadline trying to work out deals while their front office leader was undergoing treatment for an appendicitis.

“We spent July 31 at the hospital with him, medicated, going in and out of consciousness,” Arnold said. “We’re trying to piece together conversations we’ve had with him as he’s in a lot of pain. That was pretty nuts. BJ Upton was involved, but I don’t think we ended up trading him.”

Arnold believes his second Friedman-in-the-hospital trade story tops even a deadline-day emergency appendix removal.

“Something like the next year, he’s at the hospital because his wife is in labor,” Arnold said. “She had a baby on the trade deadline.”

With the team involved in several trade scenarios and the deadline fast approaching, Rays staff members were texting with Friedman the entire time.

“We went back and looked at the time stamp of when he had sent texts and when the baby was born,” Arnold said with a laugh. “It was minutes apart. So we asked him what was going on in there?”

“He said she was kind of propped up, and behind her head, he was texting stuff about the trade. We were like ‘Welcome to the world, Zach Friedman.'”


‘My phone is ringing at the funeral now’

White Sox general manager Chris Getz loved his Uncle Mike. So when his uncle died during the offseason, Getz made sure to attend the funeral and even was asked to be a pallbearer. But on the day of the proceedings, the White Sox top decision-maker’s phone was buzzing.

“There’s a GM out there who if there is interest, he doesn’t stop calling,” Getz recalled. “So I told him my uncle had passed away and I have his funeral, but don’t worry, we’re going to do the deal. I’m not going anywhere other than the fact that I’m a pallbearer at my uncle’s funeral. I need a couple hours. He says, ‘Cool, I got you.'”

The funeral started, but the calls didn’t stop.

“My phone is ringing at the funeral now,” Getz said. “It wasn’t actually ringing when I was carrying the casket, but it was close enough. I told people at the celebration afterwards what was going on and they were like ‘Hey Chris, Uncle Mike would have absolutely loved that you executed a trade at his funeral.”


I’m literally going from the church to the graveyard, on the phone trying to get us $500,000′

Getz isn’t the only executive who has needed to tend to work matters during a family funeral. New San Francisco Giants GM Zack Minasian had a similar experience after his grandmother died last offseason.

“It was this past January. I had to find us $500,000 of international money,” Minasian said. “I’m literally going from the church to the graveyard, on the phone trying to get us $500,000. It was not my best day. And it’s the same church my grandmother got married in. I had my brother [Perry] next to me as I’m trying to hide my phone. He was driving so I could text.”

Zack’s older brother is the GM of the Angels, but it wasn’t Perry he was working to acquire the international bonus money.

“I got $250,000 from the Red Sox for Blake Sabol and $250,000 from the Marlins for Will Kempner,” Minasian said. “I got it done.”

Minasian was asked why not just ask his brother for it. He was sitting right next to him.

“Shocker. He didn’t have it!” the younger Minasian said with a laugh.


‘I’m feeling the texts coming through in my pocket’

Another executive, who was willing to tell his story as long as his name wasn’t used, remembers navigating a Passover seder while trying to pull off a minor deal.

“I was at my in-laws’ temple’s seder,” the executive said. “Not a fancy, formal one, but still. I’m feeling the texts coming through in my pocket.”

At one point, he excused himself to go to the bathroom. That allowed the trade to move closer to the finish line — but it wasn’t done yet.

“I was trying to be respectful, not checking the phone,” the executive said. “But at one point, one of my kids needed to go to the bathroom and my hand shot up. I said, “I’ll take him.’

“I ran out in the hall and took him to the bathroom and real quick called the other team to get the ball rolling. It definitely wasn’t easy, but we got the deal done.”

Communication issues

‘I knew I was going to lose cell service’

A few days before Christmas during the 2022 offseason, Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen was in the midst of a family vacation in Hawai’i — and also working the phones for a major trade during what is usually a rare quiet stretch for MLB execs.

Executives never know exactly when a deal is going to line up, but Hazen had a feeling he might be caught in a tough spot being so far from his home base.

“I was trying to finalize the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno/Lourdes Gurriel trade [with the Blue Jays],” Hazen said. “I talked to [Brian Cashman] in the morning, I talked to another team later, and I finalized the deal with Ross [Atkins] right before we were supposed to go zip lining that day.

“I was with my kids. We are driving to the middle of nowhere in Maui, and I knew I was going to lose cell service. We have a time slot for the zip lining we have to get to. I had my oldest kid driving and I was trying to get a hold of Varsho to tell him about the trade and I couldn’t. And we were getting closer and closer to the abyss, knowing I was going to lose service.”

Hazen couldn’t find Varsho anywhere and was told the outfielder could be “in a tree hunting somewhere.” This put Hazen in a time crunch to inform the player he would be included in a deal, but eventually he got a hold of him to tell him of the trade. Now he wanted to talk with the guys he was acquiring.

“When we get to the bottom of the gully, there is no cell service, so I’m hoping the zip line company has Wi-Fi to use,” Hazen said. “And they were like ‘The Wi-Fi just went down.’ I could not believe it. So I had not talked to Gurriel or Moreno yet. So I drop the kids off at the zip line and tell them I’ll be back when I can, and I drive back to the closest town so I could get cell service.”

Hazen sat at a restaurant, called his players and then headed back to his kids.

“They were halfway through zip-lining,” Hazen said. “They didn’t mind. At least, I don’t think so.”


‘He whipped the phone to me and he said, “Finish the Roberts deal”‘

Current Cubs president Jed Hoyer was a young executive with the Boston Red Sox in 2004, working under GM Theo Epstein during a tumultuous trade deadline.

Boston was seemingly having talks with everyone in the league, eventually trading star shortstop Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs in a blockbuster, four-team trade. The team was also trying to trade for a base-stealing player named Dave Roberts.

“Theo was trying to finish the Nomar deal on like an old-school phone,” Hoyer said. “At one point, he whipped the phone to me and he said, ‘Finish the Roberts deal.’ But I couldn’t understand [Dodgers GM] Paul DePodesta on the phone. It was a choppy connection.”

After Hoyer hung up, Epstein asked him if he got the deal done.

“I just looked at him and said, ‘I think so?’ with a shrug,” Hoyer said with a laugh. “I think we’re good, but not sure.”

Hoyer noted what that trade led to a curse-breaking title in Boston and newfound fame for Roberts, whose crucial stolen base during Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS will live forever in Red Sox lore.

“And now he might be a Hall of Fame manager,” Hoyer said. “Glad it worked out.”


‘All of a sudden the skies open up, it’s pouring, and I can’t hear on my cell phone’

In July 2009, St. Louis Cardinals executive John Mozeliak was getting ready to play golf when trade talks began to heat up.

“I wasn’t a golfer but I got invited by a friend to play at St. Louis Country Club,” Mozeliak recalled.

The calls he was getting came from Athletics GM Billy Beane with the two sides discussing a deal involving slugger Matt Holliday.

“All of a sudden the skies open up, it’s pouring, and I can’t hear on my cell phone,” Mozeliak said. “It was just disastrous. And by the way, I only played three holes because my phone was just blowing up.”

Mozeliak headed back to his car — to stay dry and find some quiet. And also to avoid trouble at the club.

“I ended up having to call our Double-A manager to get his opinion on a couple of players that were going to Oakland, trying to orchestrate all of this at a very exclusive country club where you’re not supposed to be on your cell phone,” Mozeliak said. “I’m sitting in my car getting pelted by small hailstones and rain.”

The conversation carried on through dinner time, when Mozeliak was due to be with his family and his friend’s family.

“We’re having dinner at Dewey’s Pizza, which is a local pizzeria in New City,” he said. “And so there I’m having to just not focus on this family dinner. I already missed 15 holes of golf, but by the time that dinner ended, we had a deal and we got Matt Holliday.”

With the help of their new slugger, the Cardinals went on to win 91 games and the NL Central.

“You’re not in your office, you’re not in your normal environment to do it but we were able to complete it and obviously the rest was history when it came to having Holliday.”

When chaos reigns

‘We had to tell Drew he was going to be traded — but not for two weeks’

In July 2012, current Cubs GM Carter Hawkins was an assistant in Cleveland.

“We were about to trade Alex White, Drew Pomeranz and two other players to Colorado for pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez,” Hawkins said.

After the deal was complete, Hawkins was dispatched to the farm team in Akron to inform the players they were being dealt.

“Pomeranz was starting,” Hawkins said. “We had to go get him out of the bullpen and tell him. But there was some miscommunication and Jimenez was still in the game for the Rockies that day so the trade was on hold. So we brought them all back in to tell them they weren’t being traded.”

Eventually, Jimenez was pulled from the game and was told he was going to Cleveland.

“So we brought all the guys back in to tell them they were being traded, including Pomeranz. Then we realize it had not been a calendar year since the day Pomeranz had signed and that used to be a rule. You could not trade a drafted player within that first year of his signing. So now we had to tell Drew he was going to be traded — but not for two weeks. By that time, his head was spinning.”


‘All he said was “No, I don’t want to trade him.” No reason. Just “No!” I couldn’t believe it’

Jim Duquette and Mike Flanagan were the co-GMs of the Baltimore Orioles in 2006 and the duo was working hard on a July deal involving slugger Miguel Tejada after getting permission from ownership to trade him.

“We spent like 16-hour days sorting through the level of interest,” Duquette recalled. “We had it narrowed down to three teams: the Mets, Astros and Angels. I mean we worked hard on this deal.”

The duo determined the Angels had the best offer.

“It was a significant trade,” Duquette said. “We had a chance to get Bartolo Colon and Erick Aybar or even Ervin Santana. It would have changed our organization.”

When they were ready, Duquette and Flanagan marched down to owner Peter Angelos’ law office to present the offers and their suggestions to him.

“I had a whiteboard,” Duquette explained. “We put down all of the names on it. It was a whole elaborate presentation to Peter. We’re up against the deadline. We sat there for 30 minutes going through all the options.

“At the end of it, he pauses, looks up at us both and all he said was, ‘No, I don’t want to trade him.’ No reason. Just ‘No!’ I couldn’t believe it.”

A few years later, Duquette had a laugh at his cousin Dan’s expense when nearly the same thing happened to him. In 2017, the Cubs and Astros were both vying to trade with Baltimore for reliever Zack Britton. Dan was now the Orioles’ general manager and was fielding offers.

“Theo [Epstein] opted out of the running for Britton,” Jim Duquette recalled. “He didn’t want to wait around for Peter [Angelos]. The Astros rolled the dice and waited. And Peter said no to that too. They got stuck with nobody. If you remember, one of their players even criticized ownership for doing nothing but that’s only because Angelos said no at the last minute.”


‘Frankly, we got that done well after the deadline’

In 2008, Hoyer’s Red Sox were looking to move on from Manny Ramirez, who wanted out of Boston.

“Manny was really disgruntled about his contract,” Hoyer said. “He had two club options with no buyouts. He was forcing his way out. We felt like we had to do the deal.”

The deal was “convoluted,” according to Hoyer, because it involved multiple teams as the clock was ticking down on deadline day.

“It looked like it was never going to get done,” Hoyer said. “It was a last-second three-team deal. That was the most confusing one because there were so many cooks in the kitchen. At one point, the Marlins were involved with a young [Giancarlo] Stanton.”

In the end, the Red Sox, Pirates and Dodgers pulled off the three-teamer, which sent Ramirez to Los Angeles and outfielder Jason Bay back to Boston while the Pirates got four prospects.

“Frankly, we got that done well after the deadline,” Hoyer stated. “That was the most manic and confusing one.”

When the trade goes through — for better or worse

‘We didn’t know we were getting a star’

In 2012, Jerry Dipoto was in his first full year as GM of the Los Angeles Angels. He had a good team with All-Star hitters and top-of-the-rotation pitchers, but his bullpen really struggled early in the season.

“May is a difficult time to make any meaningful trades,” Dipoto said. “And we didn’t have a burgeoning farm system to deal from either. But we were able to acquire Ernesto Frieri from the Padres. He was like fourth or fifth on the Pads depth chart.”

Frieri was out of options so the Padres didn’t mind moving him.

“He was like a 1.5-pitch type of reliever,” Dipoto said. “We got him for two prospects: second baseman Alexi Amarista and minor league pitcher Donn Roach.”

The Angels were immediately impressed with their new reliever.

“He played catch down the line the first day and our pitching coach was like ‘Wow, you can’t pick up this guy’s ball at all,'” Dipoto recalled. “He threw a scoreless inning that night and the next night he was closing.”

Frieri ripped off 20 scoreless innings to begin his Angels career and was a finalist to make the All-Star team.

“I distinctly remember [scout] Charlie Kerfeld asking me how I pulled that one off. It’s so hard to do it in May. We didn’t know we were getting a star.”


‘He threw out a slew of names and said, “We will overpay”‘

Trader Jerry, as Dipoto is known, was at it again during the shortened 2020 season, now working for the Mariners. And again, it was the Padres on the other end of the phone. San Diego had a really good team and was looking for some specific help.

“They were trying to fortify and they needed a catcher,” Dipoto said. “We had Austin Nola, who was going bananas for us in that short season.”

Nola was hitting .306 with a 151 OPS+ when AJ Preller called Dipoto.

“We were in full rebuild mode but didn’t have much interest in moving him, simply because it’s a tough position to fill and he’s a great makeup guy,” Dipoto said.

But Preller wouldn’t take no for an answer.

“He threw out a slew of names and said, ‘We will overpay,'” Dipoto recalls. “AJ is that way.”

In return, the Mariners received four players, including Ty France — but it was a second, late trade that year with San Diego that Dipoto liked even more. The Padres wanted reliever Taylor Williams.

“After doing the first deal, we’re inside of 10 minutes until the deadline,” Dipoto said. “We’ve asked for a number of mainstream players. They said no. But they had a guy in their farm system who had thrown one inning as a minor leaguer after being drafted the previous year. Then COVID hit. That was Matt Brash. We were so close to the deadline that I heard AJ cup the phone and yell, ‘BRASH?’ to one of his assistants. Then he gets back on and says, ‘We’ll do it.’

“It’s the only deal I’ve ever done without seeing the medicals. There was no time. But Brash has been good for us.”


‘To this day, I don’t think Kazmir knows the full story of why we traded him’

When asked about his most interesting deals, Jim Duquette immediately thought of the oft-discussed trade of prospect Scott Kazmir during his time as GM of the Mets — with some insight even hard-core Mets fans may not know.

In July 2004, Duquette traded Kazmir to the then-Tampa Bay Devil Rays for starter Victor Zambrano. But few knew that an off-the-field sponsorship would have a lasting impact on the deal.

“A lot of it centered on the medical,” Duquette said. “[Kazmir] was high risk.”

Kazmir was a first-round pick, but the Mets were worried about his health from the time they drafted him on. They did the deal after clearing Zambrano of any medical concerns of his own. And that backfired on them.

“It didn’t help that we had an inexperienced ortho group that had just started overseeing our entire medical staff in 2003, after their hospital had signed a multiyear sponsorship deal with the organization,” Duquette said. “The ultimate irony is Kazmir never got injured while Zambrano was cleared and got injured after three starts. It was a double whammy.”

Zambrano missed the rest of 2004 but was healthy in 2005 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006. Kazmir eventually did get hurt but first provided the Rays and later the Angels with several productive seasons before needing Tommy John surgery in 2011.

“To this day, I don’t think Kazmir knows the full story of why we traded him,” Duquette said.

When the deal falls apart

‘For an hour we thought we were getting Felix Hernandez’

Before joining the Giants in 2018, Zack Minasian spent 14 years in the Brewers. During one of his seasons under GM Doug Melvin, the team thought it had a deal for one of the game’s top pitchers.

Milwaukee was deep in conversations with the Seattle Mariners, who had a former Brewers executive, Jack Zduriencik, serving as GM.

“Jack and Doug were talking about a trade that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Milwaukee,” Minasian recalled. “At one point, we thought Jack had agreed to it but he needed to make one other move before we could finalize it.

“It didn’t happen, but for an hour we thought we were getting Felix Hernandez. We were nervous, anxious, excited and just waiting.”

That is not the only time a trade that failed to come to fruition created a memory for Minasian. After a trade with the Mets involving Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler fell through, Minasian ended up at a bar while the front office was looking at other potential deals.

“One of my friends owned a place in Milwaukee,” he said. “I got a call from Doug while I was there and I had to go in the basement of the bar where all the liquor is being stored, huddled in the back corner, going through Astros prospects.

“You have to do what you have to do, right?”


‘We don’t get Gallen if we make that trade’

Sometimes a trade that fell through can turn out to be a blessing in disguise for a team. Hazen remembers such a trade during his second trade deadline as Diamondbacks GM.

As trade season heated up, Arizona was running neck and neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers in a battle for the top spot in the National League and the teams were among the top suitors for the prize of the deadline: Baltimore star Manny Machado, who was set to hit free agency after the season.

Ultimately, Machado went to the Dodgers and L.A. won the NL West and reached the World Series. But the ripple effects of Arizona not landing Machado helped the D-backs make a World Series appearance of their own in 2023.

“We tried to get Manny Machado from the Orioles in 2018 and Jazz Chisholm would have been in that trade,” Hazen said. “We didn’t trade Jazz there but that got us Zac Gallen in 2019. We don’t get Gallen if we make that trade for Machado, so you never know.”

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ACC preview: Road to title again figures to go through Clemson

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ACC preview: Road to title again figures to go through Clemson

To be the man, you have to beat the man. It’s the mantra of Charlotte-based wrestling great Ric Flair, and it pretty reliably describes the annual title race in the Charlotte-based ACC. For 14 straight years, the ACC crown has gone to either Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers or to someone who managed to beat them in the regular season.

Over the past 10 of those 14 years, Clemson has won eight titles. Even as the Tigers’ status as a national championship contender diminished — they’ve finished from 13th to 20th in the AP poll for four consecutive years after six straight top-four finishes — they’ve split the past four conference titles. Last year they became the first bid thief of the expanded College Football Playoff era, knocking off SMU in Charlotte to nab the final playoff berth over Alabama. And with the highest returning production percentage in the country, the Tigers not only head into 2025 as obvious favorites to defend their crown, but they are also garnering top-five hype.

I’ve been pretty skeptical about the latter hype — we’ll talk plenty about that below — but there’s no question the Tigers enter 2025 as the ACC’s most likely champion. Who else might contend? Will SMU charge back after coming so close to a title in its conference debut? Can Miami finally get the offense and defense functional at the same time? Since beating Clemson in the regular season is evidently a prerequisite to ACC glory, can someone such as Louisville or Duke take advantage of opportunities? And what the heck is Florida State capable of after suffering the end-all, be-all of collapses in 2024?

The most geographically ridiculous conference in major college football has countless storylines heading into the fall. Let’s preview the ACC!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sun Belt, AAC and Indie/Pac-12 previews.

2024 recap

Though Clemson indeed won the race, the ACC’s journey through 2024 was fascinating, with Cal (and its online fan base) generating early buzz and bringing “College GameDay” to town, Florida State suffering a historic collapse, Miami reaching as high as fourth in the polls during a 9-0 start, Georgia Tech scoring a couple of stirring upset wins (and nearly getting a third), Duke and Syracuse each riding close wins to big seasons (they were a combined 13-3 in one-score finishes) and SMU rolling to an 8-0 regular season in ACC play — after nearly losing to Nevada in the season opener and making an early quarterback change, no less.

Louisville lost three conference games by a touchdown or less, Miami’s defense no-showed down the stretch, and after looking like they were in the middle of a lost season (by Clemson standards), there the Tigers were to swoop in, land a spot in the title game and beat SMU with a field goal at the buzzer in one of the best games of the year.

Both Clemson and SMU reached — and lost in the first round of — the College Football Playoff, capping a madcap season.

Oh yeah, and then North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Can’t forget that.


Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

Though the national average for returning production is around just 53% this season, the ACC is one of three conferences (along with the Big 12 and SEC) to average 59% or higher. Clemson, at 80%, leads the way nationally, and seven other teams are at 60% or better. The Tigers hit that number in a few different ways. Swinney added three transfers to the Clemson roster, a mammoth number by his standards, but Clemson still does less portal work than any non-service academy in the country. Others, such as Stanford, Pitt and Boston College, don’t do much either. BC actually joins a strange club: Of the teams in the six conferences I’ve previewed to date, only BC, Ball State and Missouri State have fewer than 10 incoming starts from transfers and fewer than 10 redshirt freshman. It’s a pretty odd combination.

Jeff Brohm’s Louisville, meanwhile, does more portal work than most, and among the top teams in the returning production column, Miami, Louisville, FSU and Duke all got there in part through the addition of transfer quarterbacks.


2025 projections

We have some pretty big stratification at the top, where ACC No. 1 Clemson and No. 3 SMU are separated by 10.2 points, larger than the difference between No. 6 Duke and No. 16 Wake. The Tigers are projected favorites of at least 12 points in seven of eight league games and could get their biggest tests from a pair of nonconference matchups against the SEC — LSU’s visit in Week 1 and the trip to South Carolina in the regular-season finale.

Miami’s rating might be a bit surprising. The Hurricanes obviously benefit from how ridiculously good last year’s offense was — they’re still projected to have the best offense in the country despite losing basically eight starters. That will be a high bar to clear, but the defense has a chance to improve beyond 44th, too. We’ll see.

Because of the volatility baked into the projections, Clemson has only about a 2-in-7 chance of winning the league, and Miami, SMU and Louisville could each make a run to the title game. NC State, meanwhile, has a pretty workable conference schedule if you’re looking for a random sleeper.


Five best games of 2025

Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.

LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games — Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end — but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren’t many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let’s get a bunch of those questions answered right away.

Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes’ ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.

Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals’ ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.

Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of each other. Because Clemson’s projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race — if the Canes don’t make it to Charlotte for the league title game, they will have a huge role to play in who does.

Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). Clemson’s tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East.


Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Head coach: Dabo Swinney (17th year, 180-47 overall)

2025 projection: eighth in SP+, 10.0 average wins (6.8 in the ACC)

Hey there, Tigers fans. More than any other fan base this offseason, you guys have accused me of hating your team because of how open I’ve been in my skepticism toward its top-five bona fides. We’ll get to that, but I should note that none of that skepticism applies to the ACC race.

Again, the national average for returning production at the moment is about 53%. Clemson’s is 80%. The Tigers bring back quarterback Cade Klubnik (3,639 yards, 36 TDs last season) and three of his top four receivers in junior Antonio Williams and sophomores Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore (combined: 2,263 yards and 21 TDs last year). Plus, sophomore Tyler Brown, injured in 2024, returns after catching 52 passes in 2023. Throw in the rarest of Clemson rarities, an incoming transfer receiver — Tristan Smith (934 yards and six TDs at SE Missouri State) — and you’ve got a tantalizing skill corps even with the loss of leading rusher Phil Mafah. (Sophomore back Jay Haynes easily topped Mafah by averaging 6.9 yards per carry in a small sample, though he’s coming back from a late-season ACL tear.)

Anchoring all this talent is what should be Clemson’s best offensive line in ages, one that returns four senior starters, including all-conference right tackle Blake Miller. The Tigers jumped to 16th in offensive SP+ last season — a far cry from where the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence offenses ranked but a vast improvement over the 2021-23 units, which averaged a 50.3 ranking. If huge returning production results in improvement (and it frequently does), they could easily have their first top-10 offense in a half decade.

The defense, meanwhile, was ridiculously young in 2024. Eighteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps, 13 of them return and nine are still only sophomores or juniors. That includes absolute stars in end T.J. Parker (11 sacks, 17 run stops), tackle Peter Woods (7.5 tackles for loss at 315 pounds), linebacker Sammy Brown (11.5 TFLs, five sacks) and corner Avieon Terrell (five TFLs, 13 passes defended), plus the rare senior in linebacker Wade Woodaz (15 run stops). And Purdue DE transfer Will Heldt (11 TFLs on a dismal defense) could add some star power as well. After the defense got worse for three straight years under coordinator Wes Goodwin, Swinney sought out a steadier set of hands in former Penn State DC Tom Allen. Improvement is likely, and a first defensive SP+ top-10 ranking since 2021 isn’t out of the question.

It’s a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games.

For starters, with all of those playmakers, Clemson’s defense ranked only 51st in success rate allowed and 103rd in yards allowed per successful play and registered its worst SP+ ranking (29th) since 2012. The run defense was mediocre even with Woods’ efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great.

The Tigers didn’t stand out in terms of offensive explosiveness either. Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion, even with some random explosiveness from Wesco and Moore. They could obviously be capable of far more, but I fear the preseason top-five rankings are overreactions to just a couple of big catches from Moore in the CFP loss to Texas. Plus, Clemson benefited significantly from turnover luck, especially in the ACC title game, and without those bounces in Charlotte, there’s no way we’re talking about a top-five team here.

But that’s the hater talking, I guess. I’m excited about watching Clemson in 2025, primarily because we’ll get to find out exactly what a Swinney program is capable of in the mid-2020s. If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it’s going to come with this wonderfully experienced team. If the offense, which has lacked pop for years, is ever going to produce lots of explosions again, it will be with Klubnik distributing to Wesco, Moore, Haynes & Co. If the defense is going to rebound, it’s going to be with this combination of experience and a new, proven DC. It’s going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there’s a chance they prove this hater wrong.


Head coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year, 22-16 overall)

2025 projection: 12th in SP+, 9.2 average wins (6.3 in the ACC)

I just can’t get past it. Trailing by seven points and facing a fourth-and-goal from the Syracuse 10 with under four minutes remaining, Cristobal took the ball out of No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s hands and elected to kick a field goal, hoping that his defense, which had given up touchdowns in four of five possessions and had no-showed for most of the previous two months, could make one last stop. It was painfully obvious that it wouldn’t. And it didn’t. Ward didn’t touch the ball again, and Miami fell 42-38, its ACC title and CFP hopes going by the wayside.

This wasn’t nearly the most disastrous game-management decision that Cristobal has made since taking over at The U in 2022, but it once again crystallized the contradictions inherent in the Cristobal experience. He’s going to recruit like gangbusters, he’s going to field an increasingly talented team, and when it’s winning time, he’s going to make a grave miscalculation.

Still, after a dismal first season in charge — Miami fell to 5-7 and 71st in SP+ in 2022 — things have improved dramatically. The Canes jumped to 7-6 and 28th in 2023, and even with a defense that was actively working against the team for half the season, they improved further, to 10-3 and 10th in SP+, last season. At some point, with the right combination of talent and quarterback play, your own game management issues can cease to be part of the equation. (Remember when we thought Andy Reid was a horrible game manager?)

I’m not saying Miami will be that talented in 2025, but there’s at least a chance. Carson Beck comes from Georgia after throwing for 3,485 yards and 28 TDs last season. He alternated between looking like the best QB in college football and throwing baffling interceptions (12 in all), but he’ll have backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle (combined: 1,007 yards, 6.1 per carry) and tantalizing North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown next to him and a deeply experienced line, led by tackle Francis Mauigoa, in front of him. Cristobal had to completely rebuild the receiving corps, which doesn’t return anyone who caught more than 10 passes. I’m not sure he got the job done there, but between wideouts CJ Daniels (Liberty/LSU) and Keelan Marion (BYU) and returning blue-chip youngsters such as Joshisa Trader and tight end Elija Lofton, there might be enough.

The offense covered for the defense as much as possible last season — the Canes actually went 3-2 while allowing 34 or more points — but Cristobal needed a lot of new blood on that side of the ball and got it. New coordinator Corey Hetherman led Minnesota to a No. 11 defensive SP+ ranking in 2024, and he takes over a unit that returns five starters and welcomes nine transfers. The defensive front looks strong thanks to the return of tackles Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr. — they combined for 15 run stops and nine sacks despite Bain missing four games — and the addition of tackle David Blay (Louisiana Tech). If blue-chip sophomores Justin Scott and Armondo Blount develop properly, that’s a nasty defensive line. Transfer Mohamed Toure (Rutgers) could team with senior Wesley Bissainthe to form a decent linebacking corps. But breakdowns in the back were devastating last year, and Hetherman has to hope a remodeled secondary fixes that. Cristobal signed four new corners, led by Washington State playmaker Ethan O’Connor and including Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and potential nickel backs Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) and Kamal Bonner (NC State). Returning corner OJ Frederique Jr. could improve, too.

I like what Miami will have in the trenches, and despite the occasional INTs, Beck is a very good QB. But Miami will need the teardowns in the receiving corps and secondary to stick. I’m pretty sure the latter will, but I’m not sure Beck will have enough strong pass catchers.


Head coach: Rhett Lashlee (fourth year, 29-13 overall)

2025 projection: 20th in SP+, 8.4 average wins (5.3 in the ACC)

Based purely on performance compared with recent history, there might not be a better college football coach than Rhett Lashlee. Before his tenure, the Mustangs’ previous two seasons with 11-plus wins came in 1982 and … 1935; he did it in 2023 and 2024. They hadn’t finished in the SP+ top 25 since 1983-84; they jumped from 56th to 24th in 2023, then to 12th in 2024. When he took over three years ago, SMU was an above-average AAC team. Now it’s defending a spot in the CFP.

Is a two-year sample enough to proclaim Lashlee the best coach in the sport? Probably not. OK, definitely not. But wow. Chad Morris (12-13 in 2016-17) and Sonny Dykes (30-17 in 2018-21) helped to dust this program off and get it back on its feet, but Lashlee has transformed it from head to toe.

The 2024 Mustangs dealt with early QB issues — incumbent Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings barely two weeks into the season — and committed far too many penalties and turnovers. They also made far more big plays than their opponents, went three-and-out far less, created more negative plays and dominated third downs on the way to an 11-1 regular season. They needed one more bounce against Clemson in the ACC title game, and Jennings briefly self-destructed in an impossibly loud environment at Penn State in the CFP, but it was a hell of a season. SP+ had projected SMU as a top-25 team and possible ACC contender, and it still sold the Mustangs short.

The continuity table above says relatively kind things for 2025. Jennings (3,245 passing yards, 436 pre-sack rushing yards, 28 total TDs) is one of about six returning starters on offense, the O-line has a pair of all-conference contenders in tackle PJ Williams and guard Logan Parr, and corner Deuce Harmon and safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Robert Rahimi (a ball-hawking San Jose State transfer) anchor what should be a strong secondary. But although Lashlee is used to living the transfer portal life, he had to do some serious work in rebuilding both the skill corps (which lost its top two RBs and three of its top four WRs) and the defensive front six (which lost eight of the 12 guys with 200-plus snaps). Three Mustangs gained at least 500 yards from scrimmage last year, and four made at least nine TFLs. They’re all gone.

Lashlee added a couple of solid pass-catching backs in T.J. Harden (UCLA) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Miami), and slot receiver Yamir Knight (James Madison) is an excellent efficiency guy. Meanwhile, linebacker Zakye Barker (13.5 TFLs at East Carolina) is nearly a sure thing, and defensive tackle Terry Webb (six run stops and 1.5 sacks at 314 pounds) is active for his size. But disruption up front was vital to SMU’s defensive success, and Webb is the only genuinely proven disruptor among nine incoming transfer linemen. Some newbies and/or youngsters will have to raise their game for SMU to return to either Charlotte or the CFP.

The schedule certainly seems trickier this time around. After nonconference battles with both Baylor (home) and TCU (away), SMU faces all three of the other teams in this title contenders section — Miami and Louisville at home and Clemson away. After what Lashlee and the Mustangs have done these past two years, doubting them seems pretty foolish. But they’ve got their work cut out for them in 2025.


Head coach: Jeff Brohm (third year, 19-8 overall)

2025 projection: 24th in SP+, 8.3 average wins (4.8 in the ACC)

Brohm’s Louisville is a very hectic program. Change never stops. In 2023, he took over a team that had ranked 41st in SP+ with an 8-5 record, sent 25 transfers out, brought 25 in and improved the Cardinals to 10-4 and 34th. In 2024, it was 30 transfers out, 32 in and further improvement to 21st with a 9-4 record. The offense got better each year, while the defense and special teams got worse.

In theory, by your third year, you probably want to have your culture and your own recruits in place, therefore necessitating fewer incoming and outgoing transfers. But that’s not how Brohm sees things. He lost 28 transfers and brought in 30. The Cardinals have some dynamite returnees in running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson (combined: 1,770 yards, 7.6 per carry!), receiver Chris Bell (737 yards, 17.1 per catch), potential all-conference center Pete Nygra, super-disruptive linebackers Stanquan Clark and Antonio Watts (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 11 passes defended) and safety D’Angelo Hutchinson (five pass breakups, five run stops). But those are damn near the only proven returnees. Brohm and offensive coordinator (and brother) Brian Brohm will have their third starting quarterback in as many years — likely USC transfer Miller Moss — and welcome four wideouts, three tight ends and seven linemen via the portal. Brohms typically field good offenses, and they’re clearly used to handling change, but this carousel isn’t slowing down at all.

The defense has indeed trended in the wrong direction of late, so maybe it’s not too scary that 14 of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps are gone. The linebacking corps looks excellent, and Brohm added quite a few proven disruptors via the portal: end Clev Lubin (9.5 sacks at Coastal Carolina), tackle Jerry Lawson (14 TFLs at 295 pounds at Abilene Christian), safety JoJo Evans (seven passes defended and four run stops at Florida International), corners Justin Agu and Jabari Mack (combined: 20 passes defended at Louisiana and Jacksonville State, respectively) and corner/safety Rodney Johnson Jr. (five TFLs, three passes defended at Southern), among others.

Living the portal life means your scouting department constantly has to hit the jackpot. Ask Florida State’s Mike Norvell — a 2022 portal genius, a 2023 portal genius and a 2024 portal disaster — how that can go. But Moss’ QBR (74.4) basically matched that of last year’s starter, Tyler Shough (75.0); the trio of Brown, Watson and Bell is the most explosive in the conference; and there’s no reason to think the defense is any less talented than it was last season. Like SMU, Louisville plays all three fellow contenders (Clemson at home, Miami and SMU away), and the Cardinals travel to Pitt and Virginia Tech, too. That’s an obstacle, and at some point, a trend toward stability would be nice. But Brohm seems to know what he’s doing with all these moving pieces, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Louisville improves for a third straight year.


A couple of breaks away from a run

Head coach: Mike Norvell (sixth year, 33-27 overall)

2025 projection: 36th in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.5 in the ACC)

For all the obvious reasons, I feared a bit of a hangover for FSU last year. The heartbreak of 2023’s unconscionable CFP snub combined with the loss of quarterback Jordan Travis, most of a dynamite skill corps and seven defensive draft picks made the Seminoles regression candidates, even if Norvell said all the right things in the offseason and brought in another solid-on-paper transfer haul.

Of course, if you’d asked me what “hangover” meant, I’d have probably guessed a record in the neighborhood of 7-5. FSU went 2-10! The transfer class produced almost no standouts, and the quarterback situation was even worse than at the end of 2023 after Travis’ injury — DJ Uiagalelei, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek were dreadful. The Noles fell from ninth to 58th in defensive SP+ and from 23rd to 114th on offense.

This was a collapse on the scale of Bobby Petrino’s last season at Louisville, Texas’ first season after 2009 BCS Championship disappointment and Notre Dame’s 2007 swoon under Charlie Weis. And it’s noteworthy that none of the coaches in charge during those collapses could right the ship. But Norvell will try.

The offense, now coordinated by veteran Gus Malzahn, could start almost nothing but transfers, from quarterback Thomas Castellanos (Boston College) to running back Gavin Sawchuk (Oklahoma) to receivers Squirrel White (Tennessee), Duce Robinson (USC) and Gavin Blackwell (North Carolina) to any of six new offensive linemen. Tackle Micah Pettus (Ole Miss), guard Adrian Medley (UCF) and center Luke Petitbon (Wake Forest) are immediately the team’s most proven linemen. Castellanos was honestly an underwhelming addition; he started 2024 well at BC, but injuries and defensive adjustments rendered him mostly ineffective, and he was eventually benched. That said, he’s a speedster who started his career with Malzahn at UCF, and White and Robinson could be excellent.

On defense, new coordinator Tony White inherits a unit with few incumbents. Tackles Darrell Jackson Jr. and Daniel Lyons, linebackers Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham Jr. and corner Quindarrius Jones are solid, but transfers Deamontae Diggs (Coastal Carolina), Jayson Jenkins (Tennessee), James Williams (Nebraska) and Elijah Herring (Memphis) will need to immediately spruce up the pass rush, and tackle depth appears tenuous. There are enough proven entities to assume the defense will bounce back. In fact, the collapse was so significant last season that we should assume some progression toward the mean everywhere. But how much of a rebound can you pull off after such a collapse? And how many games does Norvell need to win to assure he’s still in Tallahassee in 2026?


Head coach: Manny Diaz (second year, 9-4 overall)

2025 projection: 41st in SP+, 6.8 average wins (4.4 in the ACC)

Mike Elko resurrected the Duke program, winning 17 games in 2022-23. But when he left for Texas A&M, Manny Diaz inherited an offense in need of a new quarterback and an overhaul on the line. The defense had been excellent under Elko, but 11 of the 16 guys with at least 250 snaps in 2023 were gone. A reset season seemed realistic.

Looking at the Blue Devils’ output, you could hardly tell there was any change at all.

Duke in 2022 (Elko): 9-4, 42nd in SP+ (55th offense, 29th defense)

Duke in 2023 (Elko): 8-5, 30th in SP+ (63rd offense, 25th defense)

Duke in 2024 (Diaz): 9-4, 44th in SP+ (71st offense, 31st defense)

The run game was a disaster, and Duke’s 6-1 record in one-score finishes camouflaged what probably should have been more like a seven-win season. But Diaz & Co. held the fort.

This year, the offensive line depth appears far stronger, and of the 17 defenders with at least 200 snaps, nine return, including four of six linemen and four of six DBs. Diaz added one of the Group of 5’s best safeties in Caleb Weaver (Sam Houston) and potentially exciting receivers in Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (Harvard), but his portal coup came at quarterback, where Darian Mensah comes over from Tulane. Mensah finished his redshirt freshman season 21st in QBR, just a few points behind veterans such as Klubnik (13th) and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (14th). Mensah’s numbers were strong across the board, from efficiency (66% completion rate) to explosiveness (14.4 yards per completion) to escapability (15.2% of pressures turned into sacks — a good number for a mobile guy). The skill corps is a bit of a question mark: Five of last year’s top seven pass catchers are gone, and Anthony, Barkate and running back Anderson Castle (Appalachian State) might all have to make an immediate impact. But Mensah is awesome, and the line looks sturdy. That’s a good starting point for improvement.

It’s hard to worry much about a Diaz defense, especially one with experience at the front and back. Ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony Jr. (combined: 20.5 TFLs, 11 sacks) and tackle Aaron Hall (7 TFLs) are good, and corner Chandler Rivers (6.5 TFLs, 3 INTs, 8 breakups) is great. Four of last year’s top five linebackers are gone, and Diaz didn’t pursue any portal replacements, which theoretically means he’s happy with what he has there. Regardless, linebackers are generally easier to replace than linemen or DBs, so Duke has experience where it counts the most. I’m not sure Mensah will have enough help to make Duke an ACC dark horse, but the defense should give the Blue Devils a pretty high floor.


Head coach: Dave Doeren (13th year, 87-65 overall)

2025 projection: 42nd in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

“They’ll need some new disruptors. (Gibson usually finds them.)” That’s what I wrote about the NC State defense in last year’s ACC preview. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson had produced three straight top-30 defenses, per SP+, but he had to replace six excellent starters and needed transfers to fill major gaps in the secondary. Of eight defensive transfers, only two clicked, and Gibson’s track record didn’t prevent State from collapsing to 69th in defensive SP+. Doeren’s Wolfpack were ranked in the 2024 preseason poll, but even with slight overachievement on offense — they were projected 56th in offensive SP+ and ended up 48th — they posted their first losing record in five years.

It’s time for another round of change in 2025. Gibson took the Marshall head coaching job, and of the 16 defenders with 200-plus snaps last season, only six return. Linebacker Sean Brown (13 run stops) and tackles Brandon Cleveland and Travali Price (combined: 15 run stops) are good starting points for new coordinator D.J. Eliot, but after failing to land enough impact transfers last year, Doeren had to seek out even more of them. Cian Slone (Utah State) and Sabastian Harsh (Wyoming) were among the Mountain West’s best defensive ends last year, and Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) were among the AAC’s most active corners. But this is a lot of change in a short amount of time, and the last time Eliot coordinated a top-50 defense was 2015.

There’s reason for optimism on offense, at least. Quarterback CJ Bailey was decent as a true freshman: He ranked 65th in QBR, right between two mega-blue-chippers — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola was 59th, Florida’s DJ Lagway 70th — and his best moments were great. He was 18-for-20 for 234 yards and three scores in a blowout of Stanford, he rushed for 83 yards and three TDs in a near-upset of Georgia Tech, and he threw for 242 yards and ran for 54 in a rivalry win at UNC. His performance was encouraging enough that when Doeren fired coordinator Robert Anae, he promoted QBs coach Kurt Roper.

Bailey isn’t Roper’s only exciting sophomore. Running back Hollywood Smothers (571 yards, 6.4 per carry) and Noah Rogers (478 yards, 13.7 per catch) were both portal hits, and incoming tackle Teague Andersen (Utah State) was honorable mention all-MWC as a freshman. If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays — the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate — this could be State’s best offense since 2021. That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn’t collapse further.


Head coach: Brent Key (fourth year, 18-16 overall)

2025 projection: 44th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three — they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.

Overall, they really weren’t different than they were in Brent Key’s first season at the helm.

Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)

Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)

Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International’s two best players — receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs — and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).

The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn’t had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it’s clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.

Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won’t be as many marquee win opportunities — the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) — but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much.


Head coach: Bill Belichick (first year)

2025 projection: 54th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (4.0 in the ACC)

We’ve had months to get used to the idea of Bill Belichick running a college football program. It’s still going to feel ridiculously odd to see the 73-year-old, six-time Super Bowl-winning head coach leading North Carolina onto the field against TCU on the first Monday night of the season. I had this vision of Belichick deciding to finish his career leading some Division III team like his alma mater, Wesleyan. I can’t say I ever had a vision of him coaching in the ACC.

I still have no idea how it’s going to go. As I wrote in the spring, “Depending on how kind you are, Belichick has surrounded himself with either known entities or yes-men: two Belichicks (defensive coordinator Steve, DBs coach Brian), two Lombardis (general manager Michael, quarterbacks coach Matt) and other key former NFL assistants (offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, special teams coordinator Mike Priefer). He has raved about enjoying popping pads and yelling at tight ends, and he’s regarded as a good enough teacher that, for all we know, this unheralded roster might develop well and thrive. Or not. I have no idea how to set expectations for this.”

I like the roster more now than I did when I wrote that, thanks to the spring addition of South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez (2,559 passing yards, 547 pre-sack rushing yards, 25 total TDs), and Belichick & Co. added lots of heft to the offensive line, signing eight transfers — including 2024 FBS all-conference performers in tackles Will O’Steen (Jacksonville State) and Daniel King (Troy) — who average 6-foot-6, 322 pounds. But the skill corps is terribly unproven: Leading returning running back Davion Gause had 326 rushing yards, and leading returning receiver Kobe Paysour had 365 receiving yards.

The defense, meanwhile, is almost completely starting over. Sixteen defenders saw at least 200 snaps last year, and only three return, all defensive backs. Linebackers Andrew Simpson (Boise State), Mikai Gbayor (Nebraska) and Khmori House (Washington) could all be keepers, though ends Pryce Yates (6.5 TFLs at UConn) and Melkart Abou-Jaoude (9.5 TFLs at Delaware) are almost by default the most proven linemen. Under Mack Brown, the defense usually dragged the offense down — the Heels allowed at least 34 points in five of seven losses last season — and while the word “Belichick” is synonymous with good defense, it might take UNC a little while to grow sound on that side of the ball.


Head coach: Brent Pry (fourth year, 16-21 overall)

2025 projection: 46th in SP+, 6.6 average wins (3.9 in the ACC)

In 2023, Virginia Tech fell as low as 80th in SP+ before the offense caught fire and drove a 5-2 finish. In 2024, the Hokies started slowly again but nearly beat Miami and won three straight ACC games by a combined 60 points before injuries to quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten slowed the offense down. Brent Pry’s team spent about half of the past two seasons flashing top-20 form but went a combined 13-13. And after massive turnover, Pry’s fourth Tech roster will look almost completely different than his third.

Drones is back. He has thrown for 3,646 yards and rushed for 1,377 in 23 games as a Hokie, and he’s a great starting point, but tight end Benji Gosnell is the only other offensive starter returning. On defense, linebackers Caleb Woodson and Jaden Keller are the only returnees who started more than six games. I really like a lot of the transfers Tech brought in, but they had to bring in so damn many.

On offense, running backs Terion Stewart (Bowling Green), Braydon Bennett (Coastal Carolina) and Marcellous Hawkins (Central Missouri) combined for 2,762 yards and 35 TDs in 2024, and Stewart is one of the best yards-after-contact backs in the country. Receiver Donavon Greene (Wake Forest) is dynamite when healthy (which isn’t often), former top-125 recruit Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) could be a nice yardage stealer in the slot, and guard Tomas Rimac (West Virginia) is one of four transfers new OL coach Matt Moore brought with him from WVU.

On defense, end Ben Bell (Texas State) was one of the nation’s best pass rushers in 2023 before missing most of 2024, and five other new D-linemen made at least five TFLs last year. In the back, safeties Christian Ellis (New Mexico), Isaiah Cash (Sam Houston) and Tyson Flowers (Rice) combined for 5 interceptions, 15 breakups and 14 run stops, while corners Isaiah Brown-Murray (East Carolina), Caleb Brown (Hawai’i) and Joseph Reddish (Wingate) combined for five INTs and 24 breakups.

On top of all this, Pry had to hire a new pair of coordinators, choosing a known quantity on offense (former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery) and an intriguing younger coach on defense (former Arizona Cardinals LBs coach Sam Siefkes). With how close Pry has come to success, it’s not optimal to deal with this much change at once, but this roster might have more upside than any Pry has led in Blacksburg.


Head coach: Pat Narduzzi (11th year, 72-56 overall)

2025 projection: 47th in SP+, 6.1 average wins (3.6 in the ACC)

One of the things that makes a college football season so enjoyable is the early upstart run, when a team enjoys some thrilling early finishes, gets off to a fast start and forces you to think of it as a potential contender. It adds such a layer of richness and world-building to the sport.

Pitt’s 2024 season is a perfect example. Coming off of a dire 3-9 collapse in 2023, Pat Narduzzi hired 30-year-old offensive coordinator Kade Bell (Western Carolina), paired him with former WCU back Desmond Reid and former Alabama backup quarterback Eli Holstein, and watched the offense drive a stunning 7-0 start. The Panthers scored late wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia, outlasted another September headline-maker (Cal) and blew out yet another upstart, Syracuse, thanks to three first-half pick-sixes.

And then they vanished from sight. Holstein struggled, then got hurt. An aggressive but glitchy defense sprang more leaks. And as delightful as they looked during the unbeaten start, they looked equally lost during an 0-6 finish. They more than doubled their win total in the most disappointing possible way.

Which was the more accurate impression, the start or the finish? Holstein is back, and Bell also has former WCU quarterback Cole Gonzales in tow, just in case. Reid is back after combining 966 rushing yards with 579 receiving yards, and the offense also returns two of its top three wideouts and three starting offensive linemen. The defense returns four of the six players with at least eight TFLs, including linebackers Kyle Louis (17 TFLs) and Rasheem Biles (11.5), plus three physical DBs in safety Javon McIntyre and corners Rashad Battle and Tamon Lynum. Incoming transfer Kavir Bains-Marquez (UC Davis) was one of the Big Sky’s most disruptive defenders last year.

A Pitt game last year was almost guaranteed to feature a lot of negative plays, a lot of explosive plays and a lot of penalties. It was highly volatile ball, even by Narduzzi’s standards, and it paid off for the Panthers until it very much did not. Reid aside, most of last year’s most exciting players were freshmen and sophomores, and one can see how experience might sand down rough edges and make Pitt an ACC dark horse. But that late-season collapse was pretty ugly. It’s up to the Panthers to prove whether the first or second half of the season showed us the way forward.


Head coach: Justin Wilcox (ninth year, 42-50 overall)

2025 projection: 65th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.4 in the ACC)

Somehow, Cal may have had an even more memorable mediocre season than Pitt. Because of a 3-0 start and the vaunted Calgorithm, the Golden Bears hosted “College GameDay” for the first time when Miami came to town. They led by as many as 25 points but fell, 39-38. It was basically the story of their season: They finished 55th in SP+ — their best ranking of the entire Justin Wilcox era — but went 6-7 because of a 2-5 record in one-score finishes. To compound the frustration, they proceeded to lose 33 players to the portal. (Wilcox also changed both coordinators.)

Wilcox honestly did a pretty good job of finding upside to replace upside in the portal. At quarterback, he found junior Devin Brown (Ohio State) and blue-chip freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had originally signed with Oregon. At running back, he grabbed Brandon High (UTSA), Kendrick Raphael (NC State) and former blue-chipper L.J. Johnson Jr. (SMU). Five new WRs and two TEs came in, including a high-level slot receiver in UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus and two of the most explosive receivers in FCS, Idaho’s Mark Hamper and South Dakota’s Quaron Adams (combined: 1,504 yards, 22.4 per catch). And he has five new offensive linemen to pair with two 2024 starters and 2023 starter Sioape Vatikani, who missed a lot of last season.

On defense, quite a bit of last year’s front six returns, including four of five primary linemen, but Wilcox still added four more linebackers and three linemen, including Liberty’s TJ Bush Jr. (nine TFLs) and former blue-chipper Tyson Ford (Notre Dame). The secondary, however, lost seven of last year’s top eight. In come seven DB transfers, including corners Hezekiah Masses (FIU) and Brent Austin (USF).

The defense graded out better last season and returns more experience, but while I’m not sure what to expect from new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin, I really like the upside of the transfers there. The schedule is kind, featuring only two opponents projected better than 40th, and if either of the two athletic QBs plays at a solid level and the god of close games smiles on the Golden Bears — two mighty ifs that may not come to fruition — Cal could top last year’s win total.


Just looking for a path to 6-6

Head coach: Bill O’Brien (second year, 7-6 overall)

2025 projection: 62nd in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)

Bill O’Brien’s first season as BC head coach was a full three-act play. At first, the Eagles were yet another intriguing upstart, holding Florida State to 13 points (again, back when we thought that was impressive) and damn near knocking off an eventual 10-win Missouri team. The defense was physical and frustrating, and quarterback Thomas Castellanos was able to run around and avoid defenders for seemingly minutes on end, even if he didn’t really go anywhere. Even when Castellanos began picking up injuries and losing effectiveness, the defense was good enough to assure a 4-1 start.

A three-game losing streak followed, however, and with O’Brien losing faith in Castellanos, he called Grayson James off the bench against Syracuse. James threw a late TD pass to secure an upset win, and O’Brien elected to start James from there; Castellanos quit the team, and BC won two more games to finish 7-6.

James suffered fewer negative plays than Castellanos and was able to both get the ball quickly to slot man Lewis Bond and connect on some deep shots to then-freshman Reed Harris. In a reasonably small sample, he ended up with one of the better Total QBR ratings in the conference, right between second-round NFL draft pick Tyler Shough and Kevin Jennings.

The James-Bond-Harris combo was intriguing, as were young RBs Turbo Richard and Datrell Jones in small samples. A good line lost a couple of all-conference starters; if there’s not too much of a drop-off there, there should be enough to maintain last season’s late momentum, especially if the Eagles get something out of transfers such as receiver VJ Wilkins (Campbell) and tight end Ty Lockwood (Alabama). Bama transfer Dylan Lonergan joined the QB race as well.

With a secondary loaded with freshmen and sophomores, coordinator Tim Lewis had to play things pretty soft in pass defense. But the run defense was sound, and BC both created long third downs for opponents and made a solid number of stops. The secondary is far more seasoned now, and linebacker Daveon Crouch is excellent. But with last year’s top four linemen gone, O’Brien loaded up with seven transfers up front, five from smaller schools. None had amazing stat lines last year, but if a couple can provide depth for veterans like end Quintayvious Hutchins, a top-50 defensive SP+ ranking is possible.


Head coach: Fran Brown (second year, 10-3 overall)

2025 projection: 56th in SP+, 4.8 average wins (2.9 in the ACC)

Those hatin’ numbers are at it again. Syracuse won 10 games last season and is now in the “just hoping for 6-6” section. What?

I’ll try to explain: In 2024, the Orange played only three SP+ top-40 teams and beat them all, but they went 7-2 in one-score finishes (hard to duplicate), and two of their three losses — by 28 to Pitt and at home to Stanford — were absolutely dreadful. Kyle McCord piloted an efficient, pass-happy offense, but opponents made more big plays, and they were among the most fortunate teams in the league. Despite the 10 wins, they finished 46th in SP+.

Of course, 46th was Syracuse’s best ranking in seven years! And Fran Brown’s first dalliances in the portal produced the Orange’s leading passer, leading receiver, two offensive line starters and four of their best defenders. That’s a good sign.

Things will get tougher in 2025. The schedule features five projected top-20 teams, and the offense returns only two starters. McCord will likely be replaced by either Steve Angeli (Notre Dame) or Rickie Collins (LSU), and with last year’s leading rusher and three leading targets gone, incoming receiver transfer Johntay Cook II (Texas) and a lot of former backups will have to step up. Up front, two starters return, but they’re two of only three guys with more than 40 snaps back, and Brown brought in five line transfers.

Injuries thrust a lot of guys into the starting defense at one point or another, and of the 23 players who started at least once (!), 15 return. There isn’t a ton of proven playmaking here, but safety Duce Chestnut and nickel Devin Grant are fantastic, and sophomore OLB David Omopariola‘s per-snap production suggests he has breakout potential. Brown didn’t load up on transfers, but he did add strong playmakers in tackle Chris Thomas (Marshall) and edge rusher David Reese (Cal) and a young former blue-chip safety in Chris Peal (Georgia).

Between the massive schedule-strength upgrade, last year’s inflated win total and the need for another batch of portal playmakers on offense, the odds certainly favor a setback season for the Orange. But Brown has barely made a misstep so far, whether the hatin’ numbers acknowledge it or not.


Head coach: Tony Elliott (fourth year, 11-23 overall)

2025 projection: 79th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (2.8 in the ACC)

On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.

On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever — after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott’s first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).

After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall’s last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J’Mari Taylor (NC Central). I’m not sure whom Morris will be throwing to — Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats — but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.

I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.

Will this work? I’d be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least.


Head coach: Jake Dickert (first year)

2025 projection: 81st in SP+, 5.2 average wins (2.3 in the ACC)

Dave Clawson ended up a relic of a past era. He won 157 combined games at Fordham, Richmond, Bowling Green and Wake Forest due to pragmatic program building and player development. He took his time — his win percentage in his first year in those jobs was just .277, followed by .354 in year two, .532 in year three and .698 in year four.

You don’t take your time anymore. It must be said that the best coaches adapt, and plenty have done so as the demands of NIL and the portal have so drastically changed how roster building works. But whether it was Clawson’s failure to adapt or Wake Forest’s failure to generate proper NIL funds — I’m not taking guesses either way — things fell apart pretty quickly for the Demon Deacons. In Clawson’s last two seasons, they went 4-8 with sub-90 SP+ rankings. The good players left too quickly, and there just wasn’t enough talent to work with.

If there’s anyone who knows about winning when your best players are constantly looking out the door, it’s Jake Dickert. He went 20-18 in three years at Washington State despite constant turnover. And his first Wake team will be portal-built. He inherits a solid tackle-breaker in running back Demond Claiborne, a sure-tackling linebacker in Dylan Hazen and little else. He brought a few Wazzu transfers with him, including three starting offensive linemen and a solid receiver in Carlos Hernandez. Those linemen will be protecting one of two very exciting (read: scramble-heavy and sack-prone) quarterbacks in sophomore Deshawn Purdie (Charlotte) or senior Robby Ashford (South Carolina). They’ll be running around a lot and potentially throwing to Hernandez and two 1,000-yard smaller-school receivers in Reginald Vick Jr. (Virginia Union) and Karate Brenson (Tennessee State).

Yes, his name is Karate Brenson.

Former Kansas State and Michigan State coordinator Scottie Hazelton takes over a defense that — surprise! — will consist mostly of transfers. Ends Gabe Kirschke (Colorado State) and Langston Hardy (UConn) were nice gets, and safeties Ashaad Williams (North Alabama) and Sascha Garcia (William & Mary) were both smaller-school ballhawks. Led by Hazen, this could become a solid-tackling, make-them-beat-you defense pretty quickly. But it’s still fair to question the overall talent level on both sides of the ball.


Head coach: Frank Reich (first year)

2025 projection: 88th in SP+, 3.4 average wins (2.2 in the ACC)

As far as interim coaches go, you could do worse than Frank Reich. The former Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers head coach — and engineer of two of the greatest comebacks of all time — has the résumé, even if he went just 4-15-1 in his last two years in those jobs. Andrew Luck, the Stanford GM overseeing the program, called in a favor in bringing Reich in after the awkwardly timed firing of Troy Taylor, and no matter what, Reich probably isn’t going to do any worse than Taylor. He went 3-9 in each of his two years on the job, just as predecessor David Shaw went 3-9 in each of his last two years. Stanford’s SP+ ranking has gotten worse in seven of the last nine years, and the last time the win total improved in a given season was 2015. Yikes. After the program’s sudden surge under Jim Harbaugh and Shaw, it’s been a slow-motion disaster for most of a decade.

So yeah, there’s a low bar for Reich. At QB, he and offensive coordinator Nate Byham will try to create something useful out of either senior Ben Gulbranson (Oregon State), sophomore Dylan Rizk (UCF) or redshirt freshman Elijah Brown; the only particularly proven players in the skill corps are smaller-school transfers in running back Tuna Altahir (Eastern Washington) and receivers Caden High (SC State) and David Pantelis (Yale). The offensive line, long loaded with former blue-chippers, doesn’t really have any left. But three starters do return, along with transfers Niki Prongos (UCLA) and Nathan Mejia (Sacramento State). Is there a successful offense in that mix? I don’t see it.

The defense has been horrible for three straight years, but it does have experience and continuity — of 20 players with at least 150 snaps, 15 return. Outside linebacker Tevarua Tafiti, nickel Collin Wright and safety Mitch Leigber are all solid, but the hope has to be that experience and development create something useful.

Things don’t usually turn around for an interim, but at the very least, things probably won’t get worse. Does that count as positive spin?

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Irish OL Jagusah fractures arm in UTV accident

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Irish OL Jagusah fractures arm in UTV accident

Notre Dame offensive lineman Charles Jagusah is recovering from surgery to repair a fractured bone in his left arm following a utility terrain vehicle accident Saturday in Wyoming.

The team announced Jagusah will return to campus early this week for further evaluation, and that his prognosis from the surgery which repaired his fractured left humerus, a bone located between the shoulder and elbow, is “favorable.”

The accident is the latest setback for Jagusah, who was projected to start at left tackle for Notre Dame entering the 2024 season but tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp. He missed the entire regular season but returned for the Fighting Irish during their College Football Playoff run, filling in for Rocco Spindler at right guard and then starting the national title game against Ohio State at left tackle.

Jagusah has been set to start at guard for Notre Dame in 2025. The team did not provide an initial timeline for his return.

The 6-foot-7, 333-pound Jagusah is part of a young Notre Dame offensive line that projects to be among the nation’s best. Despite losing veterans Spindler (Nebraska), Pat Coogan (Indiana) and Sam Pendleton (Tennessee) to the transfer portal, Notre Dame returns promising players such as left tackle Anthonie Knapp and center Ashton Craig.

Jagusah was the No. 7 tackle and No. 66 overall recruit in the 2023 class. Notre Dame opens the season Aug. 31 at Miami.

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