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As Rishi Sunak prepares to launch his re-election pitch from the stage in Manchester this week, it’s worth remembering that this time last year, the now prime minister – and many of his supporters – were put out to pasture and didn’t even bother to turn up for the annual Tory jamboree.

Those who did looked on with widening eyes at the accelerating car crash of the Liz Truss premiership, as her mini-budget began to unravel in real time at party conference (remember the panicked decision to U-turn on cutting the top rate tax no sooner than conference kicked off), with her administration’s complete collapse coming less than three weeks later.

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Truss’ time as PM, one year on

It is a chapter of Conservative history that Rishi Sunak has sought to put right – spending his first year as PM trying to steady the ship and bring an air of competence and professionalism to government. There is no doubt that the tenor and tone of what could well be the final party conference before a general election will be a world away from the last.

But when it comes to the fundamentals, has that much changed? If you measure politics in its most brutal sense as victory at the ballot box, the answer is not much. The Conservatives were experiencing their worst polling since the last 1990s this time last year. Look at our Sky News poll tracker now, and you can see average support for the party is pretty much the same – about 26%. It’s barely shifted at all.

To make matters worse, Mr Sunak – who will look in his leader’s speech to the country to cast himself as the heir of Thatcher – goes to conference as the Conservative prime minister who is presiding over anything but a Thatcherite economy.

The tax burden is on course to rise by more in this Conservative parliament than during any other since the Second World War, according to analysis released by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the eve of conference. It will rise from 33% of national income to 37% by next year. A record leap that sees families and businesses paying more than £100bn extra in tax by next year compared with the last election, it has left many Tory MPs in despair and angry at the Sunak approach to the economy.

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Taxes are rising to near historic highs

The Sunak message will be that, during the pandemic, he had to do things and spend public money in a way that didn’t come naturally to him. He will argue he is a Thatcherite in both his personal work ethic and philosophy – an instinctive tax cutter and small-state Conservative, but is doing the hard work now – growing the economy, halving inflation – to reap the rewards later.

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But his detractors are quietly fulminating. As one put it to me this week: “This heir to Thatcher business, it’s concocted vacuous stuff he’s come up with – ‘she grew up in a small shop, I [Sunak] grew up in a pharmacy’. Why didn’t he do that last year in a leadership campaign?”

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Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’

And if the message is stick to the plan and reap the rewards, there are some who have missed the memo. Divisions will surface on “economy day” as Liz Truss, Dame Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg appear at the Great British Growth rally on Monday.

“The tax burden is now a 70-year high. That is unsustainable. And the people that pay the taxes are hard pressed Brits around the country,” former home secretary Dame Priti Patel told GB News on Friday as she insisted taxes had to come down. “As Conservatives, we believe in lower taxes. As Conservatives, we believe being on the side of hard-working households and families. As Conservatives, we believe in hope and aspiration.”

Poor polling and anxiety over the tax burden make for a tricky backdrop. Team Rishi insist that they can turn it around in the coming months, and the contour of that plan is taking shape.

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‘Not right to impose costs on people’

On net zero, the PM is trying to drill dividing lines between the Conservatives and Labour over environmental policies. He will use conference to position himself on the side of the motorist as he looks to further mine the advantage he gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

The fanning of the immigration flames – with Home Secretary Suella Braverman threatening to withdraw from the ECHR last week – is helpful to a prime minister who is looking to win back lapsed 2019 Conservative voters and regroup on the right.

His team see a narrow path to victory with all pivots on economic recovery, coupled with the message “we’re back on track, don’t risk Labour” and winning back voters over core issues – environment, immigration – to narrow the polls (someone told me that 14% of lapsed Conservative 2019 voters have moved to Reform, get a chunk back and the gap begins to close).

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‘Being gay isn’t enough to claim asylum’

“I wouldn’t bet against us to turn it around in the coming months,” said one No 10 insider. “Rishi genuinely believes he can make it better for the country and get into the best possible position for an election next year. Seeing how politics has changed over the past one, two years, I wouldn’t bet against us being able to turn it around. We have got to be the party of change.”

But the huge problem for Mr Sunak is that voters seem to have tuned out. He has been in No 10 for a year, and still the polls are unchanged. This conference, likely the last before an election, is his final chance to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

But he has a problem too with a party that is in despair. While No 10 were pleased that the net zero announcements didn’t spark at backlash from pro-green One Nation Conservatives, the right of the party is restive over economy and waiting for the prime minister to placate them on spending and tax cuts. One figure suggested to me this weekend that Mr Sunak might use the cancellation of the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2 as a way of finding room for manoeuvre when it comes to promises on tax.

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Labour: ‘We want HS2 to go ahead’

Closing the gap with Labour is the goal for now as speculation grows around whether it will be a May or October election. (If it’s May you can run it with the local elections and not risk a small boats summer crisis or a vote in the autumn after a local election wipeout – but the PM might just want to hold out.)

But away from the No 10 bunker, and even his most ardent backers think the best Mr Sunak can achieve is holding Labour back from an outright majority.

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As for some of his more seasoned MPs, they are resigned to what they see is their fate: “Instinctively, I don’t feel that we can win. This feels like a damage limitation project.”

Manchester will be the acid test as to whether Mr Sunak can shift the momentum.

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Trump has acted for his country, I will act in Britain’s interests, says Starmer

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Trump's tariffs are about something more than economics: power

Donald Trump has acted for his country and I will act in Britain’s interests, Sir Keir Starmer has said after the US president imposed 10% tariffs on UK goods.

The prime minister told business chiefs at an early morning meeting in Downing Street: “Last night the president of the United States acted for his country, and that is his mandate.

“Today, I will act in Britain’s interests with mine.”

Politics latest: Starmer says UK will react to tariffs with ‘cool and calm head’

Mr Trump announced sweeping tariffs on countries around the world, with the UK getting off relatively lightly with 10% tariffs – branded “kind reciprocal” by the president – compared with China, which will have to pay 54% tariffs and 20% for the EU.

A previously announced 25% tariff on British car imports to the US came into effect at 5am on Thursday.

Sir Keir said the government is moving “to the next stage of our plan” after negotiations failed to fend off any tariffs ahead of Wednesday’s announcement.

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He promised any decisions “will be guided only by our national interest, in the interests of our economy, in the interests of businesses around this table, in the interests of putting money in the pockets of working people”.

Keir Starmer hosts a meeting with business leaders in 10 Downing Street following the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump.
Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street
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Sir Keir Starmer hosted business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. Pic: Simon Dawson/No 10 Downing Street

“Clearly, there will be an economic impact from the decisions the US has taken, both here and globally,” he told the business leaders.

“But I want to be crystal clear: we are prepared, indeed one of the great strengths of this nation is our ability to keep a cool head.”

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told the Commons on Thursday the government is considering retaliatory measures and requested British businesses let him know what the tariff implications will be for them.

An “indicative list of potential products” that could be targeted was later published, with 8,364 categories covering about 27% of UK imports from the US.

Earlier, Mr Reynolds told Wilfred Frost on Sky News Breakfast his “job is not done” when it comes to negotiating a trade deal

Mr Reynolds refused to say if the tariffs might cause a global recession and said the UK has safeguards in place to ensure it is not flooded with goods that would have gone to other countries.

“We’ll take any powers we need to protect the British people and the British economy from that,” he said.

“What we have directly within our power, alongside that is, of course, the ability to negotiate a better deal in the national interest for the UK. That’s been our approach to date and we’ll continue with that.”

Read more:
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Tariffs will have consequences for globalisation, the US economy and geopolitics
Trump’s tariffs explained

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Moment Trump unveils tariffs chart

UK will be template for other nations’ deals

The business secretary also suggested if the UK is successful in negotiating a deal with the US “there’ll be a template there” for other countries to “resolve some of these issues”.

He reiterated statements he and the PM have made over the past few days as he said: “America is a friend, America’s our principal ally.

“Our relationship is an incredibly strong economic one, but also a security one, a political one as well.”

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Sky’s Ed Conway examines how economies across the world are impacted by tariffs

Government ‘very slow’ to start talks

Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sky News the government had been “very slow” to start negotiating a free trade agreement with the US, and they should have started when Mr Trump was elected in November, even though he did not get sworn in until the end of January.

He said the UK being hit by a lower tariff than the EU was “one of the benefits of Brexit”.

However, he said the 25% tariff on car exports to the US is “very, very serious” and the global impact is “bad news for our economy”.

Relief in Westminster – but concessions to Trump to come

It has been quite a rollercoaster for the government, where they went from the hope that they could avoid tariffs, that they could get that economic deal, to the realisation that was not going to happen, and then the anticipation of how hard would the UK be hit.

In Westminster tonight, there is actual relief because the UK is going to have a 10% baseline tariff – but that is the least onerous of all the tariffs we saw President Trump announce.

He held up a chart of the worst offenders, and the UK was well at the bottom of that list.

No 10 sources were telling me as President Trump was in the Rose Garden that while no tariffs are good, and it’s not what they want, the fact the UK has tariffs that are lower than others vindicates their approach.

They say it’s important because the difference between a 20% tariff and a 10% tariff is thousands of jobs.

Where to next? No 10 says it will “keep negotiating, keep cool and calm”, and reiterated Sir Keir Starmer’s desire to “negotiate a sustainable trade deal”.

“Of course want to get tariffs lowered. Tomorrow we will continue with that work,” a source added.

Another source said the 10% tariff shows that “the UK is in the friendlies club, as much as that is worth anything”.

Overnight, people will be number-crunching, trying to work out what it means for the UK. There is a 25% tariff on cars which could hit billions in UK exports, in addition to the blanket 10% tariff.

But despite this being lower than many other countries, GDP will take a hit, with forecasts being downgraded probably as we speak.

I think the government’s approach will be to not retaliate and try to speed up that economic deal in the hope that they can lower the tariffs even further.

There will be concessions. For example, the UK could lower the Digital Services Tax, which is imposed on the UK profits of tech giants. Will they loosen regulation on social media companies or agricultural products?

But for now, there is relief the UK has not been hit as hard as many others.

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Trump’s tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

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Trump's tariffs will have an impact before too long – but how will the UK respond?

The list has landed.

More than 400 pages of thousands of goods that could be affected by reciprocal tariffs against the US.

Everything from fresh domestic ducks to sea-going dredgers makes the cut; most symbolic, however, are iconic American items like jeans, motorcycles and whiskey.

Would Donald Trump stand for a levy on Levi’s? It’s not the first time this battle has played out.

When the US president announced tariffs on steel and aluminium in his first term, the EU responded with its own – including a symbolic 25% tax on American whiskey.

At the time, the UK, then an EU member, followed suit.

But as the UK tries to carve its own path outside the bloc, vindicated by the baseline 10% tariffs imposed instead of the EU’s rate of 20%, the aim is to avoid retaliation.

The government want us to know “all options are on the table” – but that is not how they want this to play out.

“This is not a short-term tactical exercise,” the prime minister said this morning.

Despite the business secretary’s best efforts during his recent trip to Washington to try to secure a UK tariffs carveout, no deal was reached in time.

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How will tariffs hit working people?

Mr Trump wanted his big bang, board brandishing moment; carveouts for certain countries would have softened the impact of his speech.

But with 90-plus countries on the tariff billboard, how far along the queue is any UK deal?

And how much are we willing to give? Will the sensitive subject of chlorinated chicken be on the table? What of the agreement to cut taxes on big tech companies that Mr Trump wants?

Lots of questions. The day after the surreal night before is too soon to know all the answers, but this is about politics as much as it is about economics.

Read more:
There were no winners from Trump’s tariff gameshow
Do Trump’s numbers on tariffs really add up?

As the prime minister launched Labour’s local election campaign in Derbyshire today, he talked about potholes, high streets and school meals. Every question I heard was about tariffs.

Decisions made across the Atlantic are looming large. Tariffs may not directly sway many votes in the local elections, but the consequences for Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom and the amount of money she has to spend, or save, will have an impact before too long.

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Woman whose son Martyn Hett died in Manchester Arena terror attack welcomes new law in his name

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Woman whose son Martyn Hett died in Manchester Arena terror attack welcomes new law in his name

There is a certain steel about a mother who has lost a child.

It’s hard to put your finger on, but perhaps after going through hell you re-emerge made of a different material to the rest of us.

Figen Murray has been utterly relentless after her son Martyn Hett was killed in the Manchester Arena terror attack at an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.

When she worried that politicians’ support was wavering last year, she walked 200 miles from the place Martyn died to Downing Street – and needed a hip replacement after.

And on Thursday, Martyn’s Law – rules to better train staff and safeguard venues against terrorists – was passed by royal assent, finally becoming law.

I sat down with Figen just before she went into Number 10 Downing Street to meet the prime minister, and she told me after six years of campaigning, the moment “feels surreal”.

She continued: “The Manchester attack was a wake up call. But it also made question, who are these people who do these things? Why are they doing it? What are governments doing about it? And I realised the only way I could get the answers was to educate myself – so I did a masters in counter-terrorism.

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I’ve recognised that people were radicalised. When you were a newborn baby, you were innocent but somebody poisoned your mind.

“There are people who try to groom young people into their ideology, and I want them to recognise where these people operate, the tricks they use, the things they say and how they can recognise themselves or others in the process of being radicalised and how to get out.”

Martyn Hett
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Martyn Hett

She also supports the initiative to show the Netflix drama Adolescence in schools: “I think it’s absolutely important that young people see that programme and they learn more about it. It’s a good thing and I’m hoping they’re taking it further.”

There will be a debate – certainly – about the financial impact the legislation will have on venues, but the legislation has been welcomed by safety campaigners.

Emma Kay, co-founder of personal safety app WalkSafe which geo-fences events and stadiums, said: “The passing of Martyn’s Law is hugely progressive move that will keep young people safe on nights out.

“Our research has shown that 63% of women prefer to visit venues with safety initiatives in place. People want safer experiences and to know their friends and loved ones arrive home safely.”

Read more:
Martyn’s Law: Terrorism response bill named after Manchester Arena bombing victim becomes law

When I sat down with Figen, I asked her how Martyn would feel today.

“Knowing Martyn, the party animal he was, he’d throw the biggest party ever,” she said.

“He was full of life and lived life not just at 100 miles an hour, but 200 miles an hour.

“You would definitely know when he came through the door, and he had an incredible ability to make everyone feel that they are the most important person in that moment in his life. And I really miss that.”

You can watch Sophy Ridge’s full interview with Figen Murray on the Politics Hub at 1900 on Sky News.

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