Could the US government shut down and does it really matter?
The United States government is, once again, on course to shut down.
In just a few hours, when the clock strikes a minute past midnight, the state will likely be unable to pay its bills.
What happens?
It means all non-essential federal services are frozen. Government, military, waster disposal and air traffic control staff are unlikely to be paid. Federal agencies, national parks, federal courts, museums and a plethora of state bodies will be hit.
They simply won’t have the funding to have meet their wage and other bills.
Lawmakers, however, will continue to be paid, thanks to provision in the US constitution.
Why is this happening?
Congress, encompassing the US Senate and House of Representatives, have yet to approve discretionary spending, a necessity for the new US financial year, which starts on 1 October.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not succeeded at getting hard right wing Republicans to agree a deal. If he pushes too hard, or gets a bill passed that the right flank of his party don’t like, he risks losing his job.
Mr McCarthy’s job is predicated on not upsetting that far right cohort. In order to secure his job as speaker he agreed that any House of Representatives member could call for a vote to oust him.
In a way he’s backed himself in to a corner, promising something he couldn’t deliver: to return federal spending to pre-COVID levels. Many Republicans loath the trillions spent on health measures and economic stimulus.
While he secured a deal to lift the debt ceiling with President Joe Biden back in May to avert the US being unable to meet debt repayments, this is a different situation.
There aren’t the same catastrophic economic consequences hanging over a government shutdown and so there’s less of a threat to Mr McCarthy.
Had the US defaulted it would have been first time in the country’s history and would have led to a near total shutdown of the economy. There would have been severe consequences to the worldwide economy.
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When has it happened before?
Many times. In the last decade alone there have been four shutdowns over topics such as Obamacare and Trump’s border wall. This one is harder to tie to a specific event.
Most recently, in 2018, Democratic politicians refused to pass a Trump-led spending plan to fund his disputed southern border wall. The shutdown then lasted 35 days.
Numerous government organisations have manuals for furloughing staff in the event of a shutdown.
What are the consequences/effects?
Last time roughly 800,000 workers were furloughed but exact numbers for a 2023 repeat are unclear.
As the first day of the shutdown would be Sunday, the effects will not be immediate as many employees won’t be due at work.
When people activity falter so too does production.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the five-week Trump shutdown in 2018-2019 reduced economic output by $11bn, including $3bn that the US economy never regained.
Shutdowns also impact America’s reputation as a stable, functioning financial leader, and it had an influence on government spending plans, delaying legislative agendas.
Some consequences are less quantifiable.
The US’s credit rating was already downgraded after just months of debt limit debate that brought the country to the brink of default.
Fitch brought down the rating from AAA – the highest possible – to AA+ over debt and governance concerns.
Lower credit ratings can increase the cost of government borrowing, adding to taxpayer bills, reducing spending and shrinking the economy.
US officials criticised the move, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling it “arbitrary” and “based on outdated data”.
Another credit agency, Moody’s, said a shutdown would threaten the triple A credit rating it designated for the US.
What are the odds of this happening?
It’s highly likely. Hard-line Republicans in the House of Representatives voted down a long-shot bill proposed by Mr McCarthy to halt the shutdown.
The Senate, which would need to vote to approve any plan, is not scheduled to take a final vote until Sunday despite the final deadline being midnight on Saturday.
How long will it go on for?
No one knows.
US President Donald Trump says he has yet to decide whether the US will join Israel militarily in its campaign against Iran.
Asked whether the US was getting closer to striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Mr Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it.”
Speaking outside the White House on Wednesday, he added: “Nobody knows what I’m going to do…Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.
“And I said, ‘why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?'”
Mr Trump said Iran had reached out to Washington, a claim Tehran denied, with Iran’s mission to the UN responding: “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House.”
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would not surrender and warned “any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage” to US-Iranian relations.
Read more:
Why did Israel attack Iran?
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The families caught up in Iran-Israel attacks
Strikes continue
Hundreds have reportedly died since Iran and Israel began exchanging strikes last Friday, when Israel launched an air assault after saying it had concluded Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim Tehran denies.
Israel launched three waves of aerial attacks on Iran in the last 24 hours, military spokesman Brigadier General Effie Defrin has said.
Israel deployed dozens of warplanes to strike over 60 targets in Tehran and western Iran, including missile launchers and missile-production sites, he said.
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Can Iran’s leadership be toppled?
“The aim of the operation is to eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel, significantly damage Iran’s nuclear programme in all its components, and severely impact its missile array,” he said.
Early on Thursday Israel issued an evacuation warning to residents of the Iranian Arak and Khandab regions where Iran has heavy water reactor facilities. Heavy water is important in controlling chain reactions in the production of weapons grade plutonium.
Meanwhile Iran says it has arrested 18 people it describes as “enemy agents” who it says were building drones for the Israelis in the northern city of Mashhad.
Iran also launched small barrages of missiles at Israel on Wednesday with no reports of casualties. Israel has now eased some restrictions for its civilians.
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The US is working to evacuate its citizens from Israel by arranging flights and cruise ship departures, the US ambassador to the country has said.
In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer chaired a COBRA emergency meeting on the situation in the Middle East, with a Downing Street spokesperson saying: “Ministers were updated on efforts to support British nationals in region and protect regional security, as well as ongoing diplomatic efforts”.
A senior US senator who supports Donald Trump has told Sky News why he believes the US would be right to intervene in Iran.
Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas who ran against Mr Trump in 2016 but now backs him, told US correspondent David Blevins that Iran is an “acute threat to the national security of the US”.
He went on to claim that because “Iran is also building ICBMs (intercontinental ballistc missiles)” and “You don’t need an ICBM to go to Israel”, it indicated Iran’s intention “to take a nuclear weapon to the United States to murder Americans”.
“Nobody is talking about invading Iran,” Mr Cruz added. “We’re not going to see boots on the ground.”
Middle East latest: Trump says he ‘may or may not’ strike Iran
It comes after the US president said he “may do it, I may not do it” when asked if he would launch a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
So far, Israel has been attacking Iran alone since it ramped up its military action last Friday, launching strikes against what it says are Tehran’s facilities for developing a nuclear weapon and also destroying its air defences.
Iran has always denied seeking the ability to make a nuclear weapon from its uranium enrichment programme.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Blevins’s fellow US correspondent Mark Stone says that while figures like Mr Cruz back military action, “a whole host of other figures are saying ‘do not do it'”.
“The social media space is absolutely full of MAGA [Make America Great Again] figures from the right… saying ‘we absolutely must not go into Iran’.”
If the US were to decide to take military action against Iran, it could have implications for the UK, as America may ask to station refuelling aircraft at a British base in Cyprus and B-2 bombers, which could carry the bunker buster bombs required to attack Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, could launch from the British base of Diego Garcia.
Mr Cruz told Sky News that while many of Mr Trump’s support base did not want to see the US involve itself in another war, “the overwhelming majority of Americans, nearly 80%, support President Trump, and support President Trump defending us against an Iranian nuclear weapon.”
America is deploying more fighter planes to the Middle East in a “demonstration of force” as tensions escalate and speculation about a possible US strike on Iran continues.
Pictures and flight tracking data show F-35 jets and tanker aircraft being moved towards the region, as well as the tasking of an aircraft carrier, providing options in case President Donald Trump decides to intervene in the conflict.
But one particular aircraft that has not been seen just yet – the B-2 stealth bomber – could reveal the most about America’s intentions towards Iran…
Why is America moving more aircraft to the Middle East?
“It’s giving them options,” says military analyst Michael Clarke. “They have got four types of aircraft – including fighters, interceptors and fighter-bombers – all in the right region.”
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Clarke: What could US involvement look like as Iran attacks ease
The new arrivals can be spread around several existing military bases that the US has in the region in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
“More is better and also it’s a demonstration of force,” Prof Clarke added. “There’s a political element behind it, to show the Iranians what they can do, but also to other allies.
“The Americans want to be taken seriously in all of this.”
A Boeing KC-46A Pegasus, primarily used for aerial refueling, is seen on tracking in the eastern Mediterranean. Pic: Flightradar24
Analysis: What aircraft have moved to the region?
Sky News analysis of flight-tracking data shows more than 30 US military planes have been active over parts of Europe and the Mediterranean Sea over the past three days.
These include planes used for reconnaissance, refuelling in mid-air as well as carrying cargo.
Map of US military bases in the Middle East
An air-traffic control recording from the US suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
In images taken by photographer Glenn Lockett in Suffolk, three US air tankers were seen flying over England, each accompanied by four F-35 jets.
F-35s are one of the most advanced warplanes in the world, known for their ability to evade enemy radar.
A US air tanker seen flying over England, accompanied by F-35 jets. Credit: Instagram/g.lockaviation
Flight tracking data shows that the tankers travelled to the Mediterranean and then returned to the UK.
Most of the US military planes tracked by Sky News regularly turn off their locations and final destinations, according to the data from Flightradar24.
Some of the planes moved from the US to Europe, while others appeared to move closer to the Middle East. At least five of the US military aircraft landed at Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.
An air-traffic control recording from the US also suggests F-22 Raptors are being sent across the Atlantic. Two refuelling tankers are visible on flight tracking data leaving the US east coast, likely escorting the stealth fighter jets.
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US insists deployments are defensive
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that the deployment of more aircraft was defensive in nature, as Washington looks to safeguard its forces in the region.
Fighter aircraft have been used to shoot down drones and projectiles in the past.
America already has a substantial force in the Middle East, with nearly 40,000 troops as well as air defence systems, aircraft and warships.
But as the conflict between Israel and Iran carries on – and President Trump continues to make threats against Tehran – it’s possible that multiple options could be on the table for intervention.
B-2 bombers – the ones to watch?
Asked what he’s looking out for as speculation about whether the US will intervene directly continues, Prof Clarke pointed to one particular aircraft that hasn’t been seen moving towards the region yet: The B-2 stealth bomber.
Known for its iconic triangle shape and ability to penetrate deep air defences undetected, the B-2 has lesser-known capability that could be crucial for any action over Iran: it can carry ‘bunker buster’ bombs.
So far Israel has not been able to damage Iran’s secretive Fordow uranium enrichment plant, which is buried deep beneath a mountain.
A B-2 stealth bomber flies over Washington DC during a 4 July celebration. File pic: AP
The only bomb believed to be powerful enough to penetrate the facility is America’s GBU-57, a 14-ton bomb that is so heavy it can only be launched from the US fleet of heavy bomber aircraft.
Any movement of B-2 bombers to the joint UK-US base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean could “indicate the likelihood that the Americans are going to use bunker busters in Iran,” Prof Clarke says.
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