The United States government is, once again, on course to shut down.
In just a few hours, when the clock strikes a minute past midnight, the state will likely be unable to pay its bills.
What happens?
It means all non-essential federal services are frozen. Government, military, waster disposal and air traffic control staff are unlikely to be paid. Federal agencies, national parks, federal courts, museums and a plethora of state bodies will be hit.
They simply won’t have the funding to have meet their wage and other bills.
Lawmakers, however, will continue to be paid, thanks to provision in the US constitution.
Why is this happening?
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Congress, encompassing the US Senate and House of Representatives, have yet to approve discretionary spending, a necessity for the new US financial year, which starts on 1 October.
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not succeeded at getting hard right wing Republicans to agree a deal. If he pushes too hard, or gets a bill passed that the right flank of his party don’t like, he risks losing his job.
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Mr McCarthy’s job is predicated on not upsetting that far right cohort. In order to secure his job as speaker he agreed that any House of Representatives member could call for a vote to oust him.
In a way he’s backed himself in to a corner, promising something he couldn’t deliver: to return federal spending to pre-COVID levels. Many Republicans loath the trillions spent on health measures and economic stimulus.
While he secured a deal to lift the debt ceiling with President Joe Biden back in May to avert the US being unable to meet debt repayments, this is a different situation.
There aren’t the same catastrophic economic consequences hanging over a government shutdown and so there’s less of a threat to Mr McCarthy.
Had the US defaulted it would have been first time in the country’s history and would have led to a near total shutdown of the economy. There would have been severe consequences to the worldwide economy.
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1:36
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he is directing committees to open a formal investigation into a ‘culture of corruption’ around Joe Biden
When has it happened before?
Many times. In the last decade alone there have been four shutdowns over topics such as Obamacare and Trump’s border wall. This one is harder to tie to a specific event.
Most recently, in 2018, Democratic politicians refused to pass a Trump-led spending plan to fund his disputed southern border wall. The shutdown then lasted 35 days.
Numerous government organisations have manuals for furloughing staff in the event of a shutdown.
What are the consequences/effects?
Last time roughly 800,000 workers were furloughed but exact numbers for a 2023 repeat are unclear.
As the first day of the shutdown would be Sunday, the effects will not be immediate as many employees won’t be due at work.
When people activity falter so too does production.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the five-week Trump shutdown in 2018-2019 reduced economic output by $11bn, including $3bn that the US economy never regained.
Shutdowns also impact America’s reputation as a stable, functioning financial leader, and it had an influence on government spending plans, delaying legislative agendas.
Fitch brought down the rating from AAA – the highest possible – to AA+ over debt and governance concerns.
Lower credit ratings can increase the cost of government borrowing, adding to taxpayer bills, reducing spending and shrinking the economy.
US officials criticised the move, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling it “arbitrary” and “based on outdated data”.
Another credit agency, Moody’s, said a shutdown would threaten the triple A credit rating it designated for the US.
What are the odds of this happening?
It’s highly likely. Hard-line Republicans in the House of Representatives voted down a long-shot bill proposed by Mr McCarthy to halt the shutdown.
The Senate, which would need to vote to approve any plan, is not scheduled to take a final vote until Sunday despite the final deadline being midnight on Saturday.
For Ukrainians, the spectacle of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Alaska will be repugnant.
The man behind an unprovoked invasion of their country is being honoured with a return to the world stage by the leader of a country that was meant to be their ally.
President Trump had threatened severe sanctions on Russia within 50 days if Russia didn’t agree to a deal. He had seemed close to imposing them before letting Putin wriggle off the hook yet again.
But they are not surprised. At every stage, Trump has either sided with Russia or at least given them the benefit of the doubt.
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3:44
‘Putin won’t mess around with me’
It is clear that Putin has some kind of hold over this American president, in their minds and many others.
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Ukraine wants three things out of these talks. A ceasefire, security guarantees and reparations. It is not clear at this stage that they will get any of them.
Ukrainians and their European allies are appalled at the naive and cack-handed diplomacy that has preceded this meeting.
Vladimir Putin is sending a team of foreign affairs heavyweights, adept at getting the better of opponents in negotiations.
There are, the Financial Times reported this week, no Russia specialists left at the Trump White House.
Instead, Trump is relying on Steve Witkoff, a real estate lawyer and foreign policy novice, who has demonstrated a haphazard mastery of his brief and breathtaking credulity with the Russians.
Former British spy chief Sir Alex Younger described him today as totally out of his depth. Trump, he says, is being played like a fiddle by Putin.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of the conflict at the heart of the Trump administration’s handling of it. Witkoff and the president see it in terms of real estate. But it has never been about territory.
Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign democratic entity cannot be tolerated. He has made no pretence that his views on that have changed.
Ukrainians know that and fear any deal cooked up in Alaska will be used by Putin on the path towards that ultimate goal
Melania Trump has threatened to sue Hunter Biden for more than $1bn (£736.5m) in damages if he does not retract comments linking her to Jeffrey Epstein.
Mr Biden, who is the son of former US president Joe Biden, alleged in an interview this month that sex trafficker Epstein introduced the first lady to President Donald Trump.
“Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. The connections are, like, so wide and deep,” he claimed.
Ms Trump’s lawyer labelled the comments false, defamatory and “extremely salacious” in a letter to Mr Biden.
Image: Hunter Biden. File pic: AP
Her lawyer wrote that the first lady suffered “overwhelming financial and reputational harm” as the claims were widely discussed on social media and reported by media around the world.
The president and first lady previously said they were introduced by modelling agent Paolo Zampolli at a New York Fashion Week party in 1998.
Mr Biden attributed the claim that Epstein introduced the couple to author Michael Wolff, who was accused by Mr Trump of making up stories to sell books in June and was dubbed a “third-rate reporter” by the president.
The former president’s son doubled down on his remarks in a follow-up interview with the same YouTube outlet, Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan, entitled “Hunter Biden Apology”.
Asked if he would apologise to the first lady, Mr Biden responded: “F*** that – that’s not going to happen.”
He added: “I don’t think these threats of lawsuits add up to anything other than designed distraction.”
Ms Trump’s threat to sue Mr Biden echoes a strategy employed by her husband, who has aggressively used legal action to go after critics.
Public figures like the Trumps must meet a high bar to succeed in a defamation suit like the one that could be brought by the first lady if she follows through with her threat.
In his initial interview, Mr Biden also hit out at “elites” and others in the Democratic Party, who he claims undermined his father before he dropped out of last year’s race for president.
This comes as pressure on the White House to release the Epstein files has been mounting for weeks, after he made a complete U-turn on his administration’s promise to release more information publicly.
The US Justice Department, which confirmed in July that it would not be releasing the files, said a review of the Epstein case had found “no incriminating ‘client list'” and “no credible evidence” the jailed financier – who killed himself in prison in 2019 – had blackmailed famous men.
But there are fears they will discuss a deal robbing Ukraine of the land currently occupied by Russia – something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he won’t accept.
Here’s what three of our correspondents think ahead of the much-anticipated face-to-face.
Putin’s legacy is at stake – he’ll want territory and more By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent, in Alaska
Putin doesn’t just want victory. He needs it.
Three and a half years after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, this war has to end in a visible win for the Russian president. It can’t have been for nothing. His legacy is at stake.
So the only deal I think he’ll be willing to accept at Friday’s summit is one that secures Moscow’s goals.
These include territory (full control of the four Ukrainian regions which Russia has already claimed), permanent neutrality for Kyiv and limits on its armed forces.
I expect he’ll be trying to convince Trump that such a deal is the quickest path to peace. The only alternative, in Russia’s eyes, is an outright triumph on the battlefield.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019
I think Putin‘s hope is that the American president agrees with this view and then gives Ukraine a choice: accept our terms or go it alone without US support.
A deal like that might not be possible this week, but it may be in the future if Putin can give Trump something in return.
That’s why there’s been lots of talk from Moscow this week about all the lucrative business deals that can come from better US-Russia relations.
The Kremlin will want to use this opportunity to remind the White House of what else it can offer, apart from an end to the fighting.
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4:25
What will Kyiv be asked to give up?
Ukraine would rather this summit not be happening By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor, in Ukraine
Ukraine would far rather this meeting wasn’t happening.
Trump seemed to have lost patience with Putin and was about to hit Russia with more severe sanctions until he was distracted by the Russian leader’s suggestion that they meet.
Ukrainians say the Alaska summit rewards Putin by putting him back on the world stage.
But the meeting is happening, and they have to be realistic.
Most of all, they want a ceasefire before any negotiations can happen. Then they want the promise of security guarantees.
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2:35
Does Europe have any power over Ukraine’s future?
That is because they know that Putin may well come back for more even if peace does break out. They need to be able to defend themselves should that happen.
And they want the promise of reparations to rebuild their country, devastated by Putin’s wanton, unprovoked act of aggression.
There are billions of Russian roubles and assets frozen across the West. They want them released and sent their way.
What they fear is Trump being hoodwinked by Putin with the lure of profit from US-Russian relations being restored, regardless of Ukraine’s fate.
Image: US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters
That would allow Russia to regain its strength, rearm and prepare for another round of fighting in a few years’ time.
Trump and his golf buddy-turned-negotiator Steve Witkoff appear to believe Putin might be satisfied with keeping some of the land he has taken by force.
Putin says he wants much more than that. He wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a country separate from Russia.
Any agreement short of that is only likely to be temporary.
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1:41
Zelenskyy: I told Trump ‘Putin is bluffing’
Trump’s pride on the line – he has a reputation to restore By Martha Kelner, US correspondent, in Alaska
As with anything Donald Trump does, he already has a picture in his mind.
The image of Trump shaking hands with the ultimate strongman leader, Vladimir Putin, on US soil calls to his vanity and love of an attention-grabbing moment.
There is also pride at stake.
Image: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters
Trump campaigned saying he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, so there is an element of him wanting to follow through on that promise to voters, even though it’s taken him 200-plus days in office and all he’s got so far is this meeting, without apparently any concessions on Putin’s end.
In Trump’s mind – and in the minds of many of his supporters – he is the master negotiator, the chief dealmaker, and he wants to bolster that reputation.
He is keen to further the notion that he negotiates in a different, more straightforward way than his predecessors and that it is paying dividends.
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