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The United States government is, once again, on course to shut down. 

In just a few hours, when the clock strikes a minute past midnight, the state will likely be unable to pay its bills.

What happens?

It means all non-essential federal services are frozen. Government, military, waster disposal and air traffic control staff are unlikely to be paid. Federal agencies, national parks, federal courts, museums and a plethora of state bodies will be hit.

They simply won’t have the funding to have meet their wage and other bills.

Lawmakers, however, will continue to be paid, thanks to provision in the US constitution.

Why is this happening?

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Congress, encompassing the US Senate and House of Representatives, have yet to approve discretionary spending, a necessity for the new US financial year, which starts on 1 October.

Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has not succeeded at getting hard right wing Republicans to agree a deal. If he pushes too hard, or gets a bill passed that the right flank of his party don’t like, he risks losing his job.

Mr McCarthy’s job is predicated on not upsetting that far right cohort. In order to secure his job as speaker he agreed that any House of Representatives member could call for a vote to oust him.

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In a way he’s backed himself in to a corner, promising something he couldn’t deliver: to return federal spending to pre-COVID levels. Many Republicans loath the trillions spent on health measures and economic stimulus.

While he secured a deal to lift the debt ceiling with President Joe Biden back in May to avert the US being unable to meet debt repayments, this is a different situation.

There aren’t the same catastrophic economic consequences hanging over a government shutdown and so there’s less of a threat to Mr McCarthy.

Had the US defaulted it would have been first time in the country’s history and would have led to a near total shutdown of the economy. There would have been severe consequences to the worldwide economy.

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When has it happened before?

Many times. In the last decade alone there have been four shutdowns over topics such as Obamacare and Trump’s border wall. This one is harder to tie to a specific event.

Most recently, in 2018, Democratic politicians refused to pass a Trump-led spending plan to fund his disputed southern border wall. The shutdown then lasted 35 days.

Numerous government organisations have manuals for furloughing staff in the event of a shutdown.

What are the consequences/effects?

Last time roughly 800,000 workers were furloughed but exact numbers for a 2023 repeat are unclear.

As the first day of the shutdown would be Sunday, the effects will not be immediate as many employees won’t be due at work.

When people activity falter so too does production.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the five-week Trump shutdown in 2018-2019 reduced economic output by $11bn, including $3bn that the US economy never regained.

Shutdowns also impact America’s reputation as a stable, functioning financial leader, and it had an influence on government spending plans, delaying legislative agendas.

Some consequences are less quantifiable.

The US’s credit rating was already downgraded after just months of debt limit debate that brought the country to the brink of default.

Fitch brought down the rating from AAA – the highest possible – to AA+ over debt and governance concerns.

Lower credit ratings can increase the cost of government borrowing, adding to taxpayer bills, reducing spending and shrinking the economy.

US officials criticised the move, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calling it “arbitrary” and “based on outdated data”.

Another credit agency, Moody’s, said a shutdown would threaten the triple A credit rating it designated for the US.

What are the odds of this happening?

It’s highly likely. Hard-line Republicans in the House of Representatives voted down a long-shot bill proposed by Mr McCarthy to halt the shutdown.

The Senate, which would need to vote to approve any plan, is not scheduled to take a final vote until Sunday despite the final deadline being midnight on Saturday.

How long will it go on for?

No one knows.

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Donald Trump’s tariffs will have consequences for globalisation, the US economy and geopolitics

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Donald Trump's tariffs will have consequences for globalisation, the US economy and geopolitics

For decades, trade and trade policy has been an economic and political backwater – decidedly boring, seemingly uncontroversial. 

Trade was mostly free and getting freer, tariffs were getting lower and lower, and the world was becoming more, not less, globalised.

But alongside those long-term trends, there were some serious consequences.

Trump latest: US president announces sweeping global trade tariffs

Mature, developed economies like the UK and US became ever more reliant on cheap imports from China and, in the process, saw their manufacturing sectors shrink.

Large swathes of the rust belt in the US – and much of the Midlands and North of England – were hollowed out.

And to some extent that’s where the story of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” really began – with the notion that free trade and globalisation had a darker side, a side he wants to remedy via tariffs.

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He imposed a set of tariffs in his first term, some on China, some on specific materials like steel and aluminium. But the height and the breadth of those tariffs were as nothing compared with the ones we have just heard about.

Not since the 1930s has the US so radically increased the level of tariffs on all nations across the world. Back then, those tariffs exacerbated the Great Depression.

It’s anyone’s guess as to what the consequences of these ones will be. But there will be consequences.

Consequences for the nature of globalisation, consequences for the US economy (tariffs are exceptionally inflationary), consequences for geopolitics.

President Trump with his list of tariffs for various countries. Pic: Reuters
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Imports from the UK will face a 10% tariff, while EU goods will see 20% rates. Pic: Reuters

And to some extent, merely knowing that little bit more about the White House’s plans will deliver a bit of relief to financial markets, which have fretted for months about the imposition of tariffs. That uncertainty recently reached unprecedented levels.

But don’t for a moment assume that this saga is over. Nothing of the sort. In the coming days, we will learn more – more about the nuts and bolts of these policies, more about the retaliatory measures coming from other countries.

We will, possibly, get more of a sense about whether some countries – including the UK – will enjoy reprieves from the tariffs.

To paraphrase Churchill, this isn’t the end of the trade war, or even the beginning of the end – perhaps just the end of the beginning.

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‘A genius actor’, ‘firecracker’, and ‘my friend’: Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

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'A genius actor', 'firecracker', and 'my friend': Tributes paid to Top Gun star Val Kilmer

Actors, directors and celebrity friends have paid tribute to Val Kilmer, after he died aged 65.

The California-born star of Top Gun, Batman and Heat died of pneumonia on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, his daughter Mercedes told the Associated Press.

She said Kilmer was diagnosed with throat cancer in 2014 but later recovered.

Tributes flooded in after reports broke of the actor’s death, with No Country For Old Men star Josh Brolin among the first to share their memories.

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He wrote on Instagram: “See ya, pal. I’m going to miss you. You were a smart, challenging, brave, uber-creative firecracker. There’s not a lot left of those.

“I hope to see you up there in the heavens when I eventually get there. Until then, amazing memories, lovely thoughts.”

Kyle Maclachlan, who co-starred with Kilmer in the 1991 biopic The Doors, wrote on social media: “You’ll always be my Jim. See you on the other side my friend.”

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Michael Mann, who directed Kilmer in 1995’s Heat, also paid tribute in a statement, saying: “I always marvelled at the range, the brilliant variability within the powerful current of Val’s possessing and expressing character.

“After so many years of Val battling disease and maintaining his spirit, this is tremendously sad news.”

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Heat co-star Danny Trejo also called Kilmer “a great actor, a wonderful person, and a dear friend of mine” on Instagram.

Cher, who once dated the actor, said on X that “U Were Funny, crazy, pain in the ass, GREAT FRIEND… BRILLIANT as Mark Twain, BRAVE here during ur sickness”.

Lifelong friend and director of Twixt, Francis Ford Coppola said: “Val Kilmer was the most talented actor when in his High School, and that talent only grew greater throughout his life.

“He was a wonderful person to work with and a joy to know – I will always remember him.”

The Top Gun account on X also said it was remembering Kilmer, who starred as Iceman in both the 1986 original and 2022 sequel, and “whose indelible cinematic mark spanned genres and generations”.

Nicolas Cage added that “I always liked Val and am sad to hear of his passing”.

“I thought he was a genius actor,” he said. “I enjoyed working with him on Bad Lieutenant and I admired his commitment and sense of humor.

“He should have won the Oscar for The Doors.”

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Elon Musk calls reports he will step back from government role ‘fake news’

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Elon Musk calls reports he will step back from government role 'fake news'

Elon Musk has called reports that he will leave his government role in the coming months “fake news”.

A senior White House official previously told NBC News, Sky’s US partner network, that Donald Trump had discussed the Tesla and X boss transitioning back to the private sector at a cabinet meeting last month.

Donald Trump walks with Elon Musk before attending a viewing of the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket, in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024 . Brandon Bell/Pool via REUTERS TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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The Tesla boss has headed DOGE since 20 January. File pic: Reuters

After reports emerged of the meeting, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said it was “garbage” and added: “Elon Musk and President Trump have both publicly stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete.”

Mr Musk added in response on X: “Yeah, fake news.”

NBC News reported that the official said Mr Musk would leave at the end of his 130 days as a special government employee.

That would be 30 May, but it is unclear if the billionaire businessman will indeed leave on that date.

Previously, the White House said that as a temporary organisation, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would be terminated on 4 July next year – the 250th anniversary of the US.

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It comes days after Mr Musk said some members of his DOGE team were getting death threats on a daily basis.

Mr Musk had drawn criticism over his efforts to downsize the US federal government.

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In just weeks, entire agencies were dismantled, and tens of thousands of workers from the 2.3 million federal workforce have been fired or have agreed to leave their jobs.

A number of lawsuits were filed in state and federal courts over cuts recommended by DOGE.

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