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Rishi Sunak’s recent shift on green policies gave us the biggest indication yet that he is planning for a general election.

Standing on a podium with the slogan “Long term decisions for a brighter future”, the prime minister made clear his watering down of net zero pledges was not a one-off, but the beginning of a series of policy measures aimed at driving a wedge with Labour – and turning around his fortunes in the polls.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

But the precise date of the vote remains guesswork – and has been the subject of much speculation.

There have been reports of a spring election, and a November election, or could the prime minister even stick it out until the bitter end?

More on Rishi Sunak

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

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Is this all because you’re scared of losing the election?

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

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‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

Read More:
A general election isn’t far away – and Labour need to make Sir Keir Starmer look like a prime minister
Political parties eye general election after mixed results in triple by-election

Beth Rigby analysis: Can the Tories turn things around before the next election?

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

This week’s party conference in Manchester, expected to be the last before an election, offers a final chance for Mr Sunak to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, his team eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”, and will seek to pitch themselves as on the side of motorists to further mine the advantage gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Ultimately only the prime minister knows when he will call an election, and there is no reason for him to have decided yet.

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Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Watch Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips at 8.30am on Sky News – live from the Conservative Party conference. He will be joined by Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, former home secretary Dame Priti Patel, and Labour’s shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray.

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Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

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Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Crypto investor sentiment has seen a significant recovery from global tariff concerns, but analysts warn that the market’s structural weaknesses may still result in downside momentum during periods of weekend illiquidity.

Risk appetite appeared to return among crypto investors this week after US President Donald Trump adopted a softer tone, saying that import tariffs on Chinese goods may “come down substantially.”

However, the improved investor sentiment “does not guarantee that Bitcoin will avoid volatility over the weekend,” analysts from Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph:

“Sentiment improvements reduce fragility, but they do not eliminate structural risks like thin weekend liquidity.” 

“Historically, weekends remain vulnerable to sharp moves — especially when open interest is high and market depth is low,” the analysts said, adding that unexpected macroeconomic news can still increase volatility during low liquidity periods.

Related: Trump fought the bond market, the bond market won: Saifedean Ammous

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a near 11% recovery during the past week, but its rally has previously been limited by Sunday liquidity dynamics.

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain
BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, April 6, despite initially decoupling from the US stock market’s $3.5 trillion drop on April 4 after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs may affect the economy and raise inflation.

The correction was exacerbated by the lack of weekend liquidity and the fact that Bitcoin was the only large liquid asset available for de-risking, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

Related: US banks are ‘free to begin supporting Bitcoin’ — Michael Saylor

“While improved sentiment creates a more stable foundation, cryptocurrency markets are still susceptible to rapid movements during periods of reduced trading volume,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of RedStone blockchain oracle firm.

“The sentiment recovery provides some cushioning, but traders should remain cautious as weekend liquidity constraints can still amplify price movements regardless of the current market mood,” he told Cointelegraph.

Crypto investors may have “maxed out on tariff-related fears”

Cryptocurrency markets may have priced in the full extent of tariff-related concerns, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“It feels like we’ve maxed out on tariff-related fear,” she told Cointelegraph, adding:

“While many remain uncertain about where things are headed over the next month or so, it also seems like markets were just waiting for the slightest signal that we’re back in the game.”

“Whether the rally is sustainable depends on whether we can break through previous resistance levels, at least in isolation. It could have legs, as markets now seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, the US dollar and US Treasurys,” Barthere added, warning of more potential volatility amid the upcoming negotiations.

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance that crypto markets will bottom and start a recovery by June, but highlighted that the timing will depend on the outcome of tariff negotiations.

The tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach a trade agreement with China, which may be the “big prize” for Trump’s administration, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

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Deloitte predicts T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Deloitte predicts T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Over $4 trillion worth of real estate could be tokenized on blockchain networks during the next decade, potentially offering investors greater access to property ownership opportunities, according to a new report.

The Deloitte Center for Financial Services predicts that over $4 trillion worth of real estate may be tokenized by 2035, up from less than $300 billion in 2024. The report, published April 24, estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 27%.

The $4 trillion of tokenized property is predicted to stem from the benefits of blockchain-based assets, as well as a structural shift across real estate and property ownership.

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035
Global tokenized real estate value, growth predictions. Source: Deloitte

“Real estate itself is undergoing transformation. Post-pandemic work-from-home trends, climate risk, and digitization have reshaped property fundamentals,” according to Chris Yin, co-founder of Plume Network, a blockchain built for real-world assets (RWAs).

“Office buildings are being repurposed into AI data centers, logistics hubs and energy-efficient residential communities,” Yin told Cointelegraph.

“Investors want targeted access to these modern use cases, and tokenization enables programmable, customizable exposure to such evolving asset profiles,” he said.

Related: Blockchain needs regulation, scalability to close AI hiring gap

The uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs has boosted investor interest in the RWA tokenization sector, which involves minting financial products and tangible assets on a blockchain.

Both stablecoins and RWAs have attracted significant capital as safe-haven assets amid the global trade concerns, Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock, told Cointelegraph.

The tariff concerns also led tokenized gold volume to surpass $1 billion in trading volume on April 10, its highest level since March 2023 when a US banking crisis saw the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank

Related: US banks are ‘free to begin supporting Bitcoin’ — Michael Saylor

Blockchain innovation could drive regulatory clarity

Growing RWA adoption may inspire a more welcoming stance from global regulators, Yin said.

“While regulation is a hurdle, regulation follows usage,” he explained, likening tokenization to Uber’s growth before widespread regulatory acceptance:

“Tokenization is similar — as demand increases, regulatory clarity will follow.”

He added that making tokenized products compliant with a wide range of international regulations is key to unlocking broader market access.

However, some industry watchers are skeptical about the benefits introduced by tokenized real estate.

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035
The Truth Behind Tokenization and RWA panel. Source: Paris Blockchain Week

“I don’t think tokenization should have its eyes directly set on real estate,” said Securitize chief operating officer Michael Sonnenshein at Paris Blockchain Week 2025.

“I’m sure there are all kinds of efficiencies that can be unlocked using blockchain technology to eliminate middlemen, escrow, and all kinds of things in real estate. But I think today, what the onchain economy is demanding are more liquid assets,” he added. 

Magazine: Ripple says SEC lawsuit ‘over,’ Trump at DAS, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 16 – 22

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Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

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Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

Crypto banking rule withdrawal by Fed ‘not real progress’ — Senator Lummis

United States Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests the crypto industry may be celebrating too soon over the US Federal Reserve softening its crypto guidance for banks.

“The Fed withdrawing crypto guidance is just noise, not real progress,” Lummis said in an April 25 X post. Lummis called the Fed’s April 24 announcement — withdrawing its 2022 supervisory letter that had discouraged banks from engaging with crypto and stablecoin activities — “just lip service.”

Lummis’ tone was different from the rest of the crypto industry

Lummis, a pro-crypto advocate known for introducing the Bitcoin (BTC) Strategic Reserve Bill in July 2024, pointed out several flaws in the Fed’s announcement, even as Strategy founder Michael Saylor and crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano suggested it was a step forward for banks and crypto.

Cryptocurrencies, United States
Source: Anthony Pompliano

She argued that the Fed continues to “illegally flout the law on master accounts” and still relies on reputational risk in its bank supervision practices. It comes as the Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (FDIC) is working on a rule to stop examiners from considering reputational risk when reviewing a bank’s operations, according to a recent Bloomberg report.

Lummis also highlighted the Fed’s policy statement in Section 9(13), which hasn’t been withdrawn, stating that Bitcoin and digital assets are considered “unsafe and unsound.”

She also reiterated many of the same staff behind Operation Chokepoint 2.0 are still involved in crypto policy today.

“We are NOT fooled. The Fed assassinated companies within the industry and hurt American interests by stifling innovation and shuttering businesses. This fight is far from over.”

“I will continue to hold the Fed accountable until the digital asset industry gets more than a life jacket, Chair Powell — they need a fair shake,” Lummis said.

Related: If Trump fired Powell, what would happen to crypto?

Custodia Bank founder and CEO Caitlin Long seemed to share a similar view to Lummis.

“THANK YOU for seeing this for what it is,” Long said.

Cryptocurrencies, United States
Source: David Sacks

However, many crypto executives praised the Fed’s announcement as a positive development for the industry. Saylor said in an April 25 X post that the Fed’s move means that “banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin.”

Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of blockchain regulatory firm Fideum, said the Fed’s decision “is a significant development, as it will simplify the path to institutional adoption.”

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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