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Rishi Sunak’s recent shift on green policies gave us the biggest indication yet that he is planning for a general election.

Standing on a podium with the slogan “Long term decisions for a brighter future”, the prime minister made clear his watering down of net zero pledges was not a one-off, but the beginning of a series of policy measures aimed at driving a wedge with Labour – and turning around his fortunes in the polls.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

But the precise date of the vote remains guesswork – and has been the subject of much speculation.

There have been reports of a spring election, and a November election, or could the prime minister even stick it out until the bitter end?

More on Rishi Sunak

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

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Is this all because you’re scared of losing the election?

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

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‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

Read More:
A general election isn’t far away – and Labour need to make Sir Keir Starmer look like a prime minister
Political parties eye general election after mixed results in triple by-election

Beth Rigby analysis: Can the Tories turn things around before the next election?

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

This week’s party conference in Manchester, expected to be the last before an election, offers a final chance for Mr Sunak to capture attention and start to regain voters’ ears.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, his team eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”, and will seek to pitch themselves as on the side of motorists to further mine the advantage gained in the Uxbridge by-election over taxing polluting diesel cars.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Ultimately only the prime minister knows when he will call an election, and there is no reason for him to have decided yet.

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Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Watch Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips at 8.30am on Sky News – live from the Conservative Party conference. He will be joined by Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, former home secretary Dame Priti Patel, and Labour’s shadow Scotland secretary Ian Murray.

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ECB exec renews push for digital euro to counter US stablecoin growth

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ECB exec renews push for digital euro to counter US stablecoin growth

ECB exec renews push for digital euro to counter US stablecoin growth

The European Central Bank is intensifying its warnings over stablecoin adoption, with one of its top officials calling for a digital euro to curb the influence of US dollar-pegged stablecoins across the continent.

ECB executive board member Piero Cipollone has penned another article highlighting concerns over the growing popularity of US dollar stablecoins, arguing that launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could help preserve the eurozone’s monetary sovereignty.

A potential digital euro “would limit the potential for foreign currency stablecoins to become a common medium of exchange within the euro area,” Cipollone wrote in a statement published April 8 on the ECB’s official website.

The remarks follow a string of similar public statements from Cipollone, who has been a vocal advocate for a digital euro as a strategic response to the dominance of dollar-backed stablecoins in Europe.

A “public-private partnership to retain sovereignty”

In the latest piece, Cipollone reiterated that excessive reliance on foreign providers — including stablecoins as well as international card schemes — compromises the monetary sovereignty of Europe.

“It also underscores the urgent need for a digital euro. Failing to act would not only expose us to significant risks but also deprive us of a great opportunity,” the central banker said.

ECB exec renews push for digital euro to counter US stablecoin growth

ECB’s executive board member Piero Cipollone. Source: Bloomberg

Cipollone also cited concerns about the United States’ increasingly crypto-friendly stance under the current administration, including efforts to promote dollar-based stablecoins globally.

Related: Lawmaker alleges Trump wants to replace US dollar with his stablecoin

“They could potentially result not just in further losses of fees and data, but also in euro deposits being moved to the US and in a further strengthening of the role of the dollar in cross-border payments,” he said, adding:

“Faced with these challenges, we need a public-private partnership to retain our sovereignty. The digital euro — as a sovereign European means of payment based on EU legislation —  would be the cornerstone of this partnership.”

ECB wants to promote cash but can’t do it online

Cipollone also highlighted the “vital role of cash” in ensuring financial inclusion and resilience, stating that cash remains a “cornerstone of the European financial system” and is its only sovereign means of payment.

However, a growing preference for digital payments has limited the use of cash amid the rapid growth of online shopping, which now accounts for one-third of European retail transactions, he said.

“Cash cannot be used online, and it is often not possible to pay using a European payment service, meaning we need to rely on non-European payment systems,” Cipollone added.

“The time to act is now,” he said. “Making progress on both the digital euro regulation and the regulation on the legal tender status of cash has become urgent if we are to increase our resilience to possible disruptions and reverse our ever-increasing dependence on foreign companies.”

Despite the ECB’s ongoing efforts, the proposed digital euro has faced criticism and skepticism among European consumers, especially around data privacy concerns.

An ECB working paper on the digital euro published in March showed that European consumers are not interested in adopting a digital euro, with many seeing little value in the potential CBDC.

Magazine: Stablecoin for cyber-scammers launches, Sony L2 drama: Asia Express

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Kraken taps Mastercard to launch crypto debit cards in Europe, UK

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Kraken taps Mastercard to launch crypto debit cards in Europe, UK

Kraken taps Mastercard to launch crypto debit cards in Europe, UK

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has partnered with Mastercard to issue crypto debit cards across the United Kingdom and Europe, the company announced on April 8.

The partnership will enable the crypto exchange to expand its payment offerings by launching physical crypto debit cards.

The partnership comes as Kraken continues to pursue a license under the European Union’s regulatory framework, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

The debit card will allow users to spend cryptocurrencies and stablecoins directly. Kraken said the rollout will begin in the coming weeks, with a waitlist now open to customers.

This partnership builds on Kraken Pay’s growth

Kraken said its partnership with Mastercard builds on the rapid growth of Kraken Pay, a new tool that enables customers to send money from their Kraken account.

Launched in January 2025, Kraken Pay allows users to send more than 300 crypto assets to multiple countries worldwide. It also introduces a paylink feature that enables users to send payments through a simple URL.

Since launching the service, Kraken has seen more than 200,000 customers out of its 15 million user base activate Kraktag, a unique user identifier allowing owners to receive money without exposing full bank account details.

Crypto payments on the rise

“Crypto is evolving the payments industry, and we see a future where global commerce and everyday payments are underpinned by crypto,” Kraken co-CEO David Ripley said in a statement shared with Cointelegraph.

“Our clients want to be able to seamlessly pay for real-world goods and services with their crypto or stablecoins,” he said, adding:

“Partnering with Mastercard is a major step toward us bringing that vision to life. Together, we will unlock crypto’s true everyday utility, ensuring it remains undeniably relevant and usable long-term.”

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Magazine: 3 reasons Ethereum could turn a corner: Kain Warwick, X Hall of Flame

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US gov’t actions give clue about upcoming crypto regulation

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US gov’t actions give clue about upcoming crypto regulation

US gov’t actions give clue about upcoming crypto regulation

The early days of the Trump administration saw a flurry of activity that could give the crypto industry an idea of forthcoming crypto regulations, namely that they may not be regulated as securities. 

Practitioners have decried a lack of concrete change in the form of new rules and guidance. The skeptics have their reasons. The formation of the crypto task force, Trump’s crypto executive order, crypto czar David Sacks’ lone press conference, and the digital asset reserve has been criticized as mere theater.

The real work of regulating comes not in press conferences but in the guidance, enforcement, and rulemaking that support the structure of rules-based systems.

A faithful account of all of the cryptocurrency decisions from the Trump administration reveals a new approach to enforcement and regulation that could meaningfully affect the rights of operators in the United States. 

Trump’s regulatory approach opens up banking to crypto

In the dog days of the Biden administration, a policy known as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” became a major scandal in certain crypto media channels. The allegations were that, during the Obama administration, the Justice Department developed a program called Operation Choke Point that it used to surveil and curtail certain disfavored businesses like payday lenders and firearms dealers. 

Some speculated that the Biden administration adopted the same policies for cryptocurrency companies. There was a lot of back and forth over this issue — some denied it ever happened, but many cryptocurrency firms and individuals lost access to banking services.

Whether this was a directive or simply an unforeseen consequence of other policies, many in the industry were incensed; the issue became politically charged. 

US gov’t actions give clue about upcoming crypto regulation

Crypto execs went on popular shows and podcasts like The Joe Rogan Experience to discuss debanking. Source: Nic Carter

As a result, one of the first steps the Trump administration took regarding crypto was to fix the industry’s debanking problem. This began only two days after Trump took office with Staff Accounting Bulletin 122 (SAB 122), a directive that repealed the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) SAB 121 — which had effectively prohibited banks from holding cryptocurrencies by making it difficult and inefficient to do so. 

On March 7, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released its own interpretive guidance, Letter 1183, itself undoing Letter 1179. The latter required banks to ask OCC’s permission to participate in certain crypto-native activities like custodying cryptocurrency, holding stablecoin reserve deposits and functioning as validation nodes.

On March 28, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) followed up with its own guidance. It rescinded the Biden era FIL-16-2022, which required FDIC-supervised institutions to notify the FDIC of their intent to dabble in crypto and provide information on possible risks. 

Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill also signaled that “banking regulators should not use reputational risk as a basis for supervisory criticisms” at all.

It may be difficult to separate the effects of these policies so early in the administration because banks are large institutions and move slowly. But across three agencies the rules have changed substantially and dramatically, which could have major effects on cryptocurrency access to banking services in the medium to long term. 

Fully dismissed crypto cases 

Virtually every pending SEC matter with a cryptocurrency defendant has been dropped. While nice for the targets, it doesn’t create much precedent that anyone can build off of. That said, the result does suggest that the underlying activities in those dropped cases won’t be pursued for enforcement, at least for the immediate future.

Related: Ripple celebrates SEC’s dropped appeal, but crypto rules still not set

It’s helpful, then, to consider what activities have received implied license through this campaign of dropped enforcement.

There are a number of cases in which the SEC filed a complaint and litigated to varying degrees of resolution, which the commission either fully dropped or settled without admissions of wrongdoing on the part of the targets:

These cases revolved around the unregistered sale and offer of securities under the Securities Act of 1933, and acting unregistered as a broker, dealer, clearing agency and exchange. While the allegations and actors are different, the common thread between them is that none would be subject to the laws in question if the underlying assets were not themselves securities.

The sole exception is Consensys, which was accused of providing staking as a service without first registering it as a security. While the texture of this claim is familiar, the activity is somewhat different than the pure offer and sale of securities. 

This dismissal, along with the related guidance concerning mining pools, suggests that the current SEC does not consider most token-generating activities to be investment contracts, either. 

US gov’t actions give clue about upcoming crypto regulation

Crypto firms were quick to celebrate after the SEC dropped cases against them. Source: Bill Hughes

Stayed pending resolution

Other cases have been filed in court and halted through joint motions to pause the suits. This is presumably in anticipation of eventually dismissing them, but since they have not yet been dismissed, it is hard to say for sure. 

These cases mostly differ from the ones that have already been dropped in that, in the case of Binance and Tron, the government brought allegations not just of unregistered operation but of actual fraud as well. The pause indicates the government may be conciliatory, but the aggravating nature of these allegations is stalling resolution. 

Gemini fits more naturally into the category above, and it is not clear why that case has not yet been dropped.

SEC drops investigations into crypto firms

There are other cases where the SEC opened investigations and even issued Wells notices indicating potential enforcement. However, the commission has reportedly ceased investigations after Trump’s inauguration. 

The investigations were focused around allegations that non-fungible tokens (NFTs) were securities, or that intermediaries like Robinhood or Uniswap were operating as unregistered brokers.  

While little has come of these actions, on balance they match the trend suggested above.

What the dismissals say quietly

None of the dismissals could be considered an SEC edict that certain crypto activities are legal. But taken together, these dismissals, pauses and dropped investigations paint a clear picture of how the current SEC thinks about cryptocurrency’s place in securities regimes. 

The SEC dropped charges where allegations revolved around operating as a broker, dealer, clearing house or exchange. This is consistent with the position that the underlying assets themselves are not securities. 

The same is true about cases of issuance. The commission dropped charges alleging that an entity issued securities in the form of cryptocurrency tokens.

Still, claims of fraud and market manipulation have not yet been dropped. This might indicate a reticence among commission attorneys to let these claims go. Still, if the assets at hand are not securities, the SEC will not be the correct agency to bring those claims, and so, if the SEC is consistent, then it will likely drop these cases too.

Furthermore, in three official statements, the SEC notified the public that traditional memecoins, proof-of-work mining, including pooled mining, and traditional “covered” or asset-backed stablecoins denominated in dollars are not subject to securities laws.

Related: Crypto has a regulatory capture problem in Washington — or does it?

This, alongside the chain of dismissals, suggests that secondary market sales of fungible cryptocurrency tokens, NFTs, and staking-as-a-service products are also outside of the scope of traditional securities law. 

Some might argue that this is more confusing than clarifying, but applying the principle of Occam’s Razor would suggest the SEC simply does not consider cryptocurrency assets to be subject to securities laws as currently construed.

But what does it all mean?

“Flood the Zone” is a tactic that Trump strategist Steve Bannon made famous during the president’s first term, and it might now apply to the manic flurry of policy and dismissals over the past few months. 

Take any one at face value and it would be easy to discount the project as insubstantial, but together they arguably represent a sea change in the crypto policy of the United States government. 

Banks, once effectively prohibited from holding cryptocurrencies, are now unrestrained. Companies once bogged down in litigation are now free. They may well be followed by new entrants comforted by their survival. 

At a biweekly clip, the SEC is releasing new guidance as to which products exist outside its remit. And Trump nominee Paul Atkins isn’t even in the door yet. 

This is a dramatically improved regulatory environment, and there are now affirmatively legal paths through which industry participants can do business onchain. 

Magazine: 3 reasons Ethereum could turn a corner: Kain Warwick, X Hall of Flame

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