This party conference is, in the words of one former minister I spoke to, “the survival conference” – a year on from Liz Truss announcing a series of unfunded tax cuts which saw the bond markets tank and her premiership unravel.
Accordingly, Rishi Sunak has staunchly refused to commit to any tax cuts at this stage, saying the best tax cut he can give people is getting inflation under control.
The chancellor has gone further, telling a newspaper it will be “virtually impossible” to deliver tax cuts until the economic outlook improves.
More on Conservatives
Related Topics:
But this is where economic realities collide with politics – an election year in which the Conservatives are well behind and the party restive for a positive message.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Senior figures on the right went further, with Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg telling Sky News the time for signalling was over, calling for action in the autumn statement in November.
“We don’t need signals, we need action,” he said. “I think the autumn statement is a time to say, this is what we are doing on this particular tax. I would be in favour of reversing the increasing corporation tax, as Liz Truss is.
“I’d be in favour of abolishing death duties, which I think is eminently affordable. But we need to do things, not promise them.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Speculation has been rife that the prime minister is planning a pre-election giveaway on inheritance tax.
Tory sources point out it is widely unpopular even though only 4% of estates are liable for it.
There are also spending cuts under consideration, with the High Speed 2 rail line, winter fuel payments for richer pensioners and some benefits being looked at for potential savings.
But after a decade of austerity, and the realities of an ageing populations and pressures on the health service, savings will not be easy or popular.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:14:17
Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips
Jeremy Hunt will today insist sunlit uplands are within reach, saying the British economy has grown faster since 2010 than others in Europe.
The party will also confirm it will accept recommendations to raise the national living wage to at least £11 an hour in 2024 – meeting a manifesto commitment to raise the wages of the lowest paid to two-thirds of the median earnings.
Whether this will make up for increases in rent, energy bills, food and childcare costs will be one of the questions voters weigh up at the next election.
Ms Truss will be appearing in Manchester, at a rally for economic growth in which she will call for corporation tax to be cut back – an aim Mr Hunt used to strongly support. How much support she receives there from activists will be closely watched.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
There’s no question that Kemi Badenoch’s on the ropes after a low-energy first year as leader that has seen the Conservative Party slide backwards by pretty much every metric.
But on Wednesday, the embattled leader came out swinging with a show-stopping pledge to scrap stamp duty, which left the hall delirious. “I thought you’d like that one,” she said with a laugh as party members cheered her on.
A genuine surprise announcement – many in the shadow cabinet weren’t even told – it gave the Conservatives and their leader a much-needed lift after what many have dubbed the lost year.
Image: Ms Badenoch with her husband, Hamish. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch tried to answer that criticism this week with a policy blitz, headlined by her promise on stamp duty.
This is a leader giving her party some red meat to try to help her party at least get a hearing from the public, with pledges on welfare, immigration, tax cuts and policing.
In all of it, a tacit admission from Ms Badenoch and her team that as politics speeds up, they have not kept pace, letting Reform UK and Nigel Farage run ahead of them and grab the microphone by getting ahead of the Conservatives on scrapping net zero targets or leaving the ECHR in order to deport illegal migrants more easily.
Ms Badenoch is now trying to answer those criticisms and act.
At the heart of her offer is £47bn of spending cuts in order to pay down the nation’s debt pile and fund tax cuts such as stamp duty.
All of it is designed to try to restore the party’s reputation for economic competence, against a Labour Party of tax rises and a growing debt burden and a Reform party peddling “fantasy economics”.
She needs to do something, and fast. A YouGov poll released on the eve of her speech put the Conservatives joint third in the polls with the Lib Dems on 17%.
That’s 10 percentage points lower than when Ms Badenoch took power just under a year ago. The crisis, mutter her colleagues, is existential. One shadow cabinet minister lamented to me this week that they thought it was “50-50” as to whether the party can survive.
Image: (L-R) Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins and shadow housing secretary Sir James Cleverly. Pic: PA
Ms Badenoch had to do two things in her speech on Wednesday: the first was to try to reassert her authority over her party. The second was to get a bit of attention from the public with a set of policies that might encourage disaffected Tories to look at her party again.
On the first point, even her critics would have to agree that she had a successful conference and has given herself a bit of space from the constant chatter about her leadership with a headline-grabbing policy that could give her party some much-needed momentum.
On the second, the promise of spending control coupled with a retail offer of tax cuts does carve out a space against the Labour government and Reform.
But the memory of Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget, the chaos of Boris Johnson’s premiership, and the failure of Sunak to cut NHS waiting lists or tackle immigration still weigh on the Conservative brand.
Ms Badenoch might have revived the room with her speech, but whether that translates into a wider revival around the country is very hard to read.
Ms Badenoch leaves Manchester knowing she pulled off her first conference speech as party leader: what she will be less sure about is whether it will be her last.
I thought she tacitly admitted that to me when she pointedly avoided answering the question of whether she would resign if the party goes backwards further in the English council, Scottish parliament and Welsh Senedd elections next year.
“Let’s see what the election result is about,” was her reply.
That is what many in her party are saying too, because if Ms Badenoch cannot show progress after 18 months in office, she might see her party turn to someone else.