IMF working paper proposes country-level assessment matrix for crypto risks
A working paper published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed a count vulnerabilities and potential policy responses for the crypto sector.
On Sept. 29, the IMF published a working paper titled “Assessing Macrofinancial Risks from Crypto Assets.” Within the paper, authors Burcu Hacibedel and Hector Perez-Saiz proposed a crypto-risk assessment matrix (C-RAM) for countries to spot indicators and triggers of potential risks in the sector. The matrix also aims to summarize regulators’ potential responses to the risks it could identify.
The matrix includes a three-step approach. The first step includes using a decision tree to assess crypto macro criticality or the potential to affect the macro-economy. The next step involves looking at indicators comparable to those used to monitor the traditional financial sector. The last step covers the global macro-financial risks affecting countries’ systemic risk assessment.
For example, the authors applied C-RAM to identify risks in El Salvador, a country that made Bitcoin (BTC) a legal tender in September 2021. According to the paper, El Salvador’s use of BTC poses market, liquidity and regulatory risks. The authors wrote:
“The use of crypto assets in El Salvador could also be assessed as macrocritical as recent regulatory and legal changes entail the risk of substantial cryptoization in the country, undermining financial stability and affecting large remittances and other capital inflows.”
The IMF has consistently discouraged El Salvador from adopting Bitcoin. In January 2022, the IMF urged the Central American country to drop Bitcoin’s legal tender status. According to the IMF, using BTC as legal tender carries “large risks” in areas such as financial stability, financial integrity and consumer protection.
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As crypto rapidly develops, regulators are playing catch up on putting in place responses to potential risks in the nascent space. On Sept. 7, the IMF and the Financial Stability Board collaborated on a joint paper containing policy recommendations, at the request of the Indian G20 presidency. The paper combined standards and consolidated recommendations for various risks associated with activities in crypto.
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Politics
Starmer says ‘US is right’ about UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence
Sir Keir Starmer has said the United States “is right” about the UK and Europe needing to take more responsibility for defence and security.
The prime minister, speaking at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow on Sunday, said he is clear Britain “will take a leading responsibility” in protecting the continent.
“Instability in Europe always washes up on our shores,” he said.
“And this is a generational moment. I’ve been saying for some time that we Europeans – including the United Kingdom – have to do more for our defence and security. The US is right about that.”
He added “we can’t cling to the comforts of the past” as it is “time to take responsibility for our security”.
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Donald Trump sparked an emergency meeting of European leaders this week after he said European NATO members should spend more on defence, while the US should spend less.
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Sir Keir has said he will set out a path for the UK to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence, up from the current 2.3%, but has not indicated when that will be.
It is believed he may announce the details when he visits Mr Trump in Washington DC on Thursday, bringing forward the announcement that was expected in the spring when a defence spending review is published.
The prime minister reiterated the UK will “play our role” if required in Ukraine following a peace agreement after he earlier this week said the UK would send troops to be part of a peacekeeping force.
Sir Keir will meet Donald Trump in the White House on Thursday. Pic: AP
However, his comments caused a row with Germany and Italy who said it was premature to commit to boots on the ground, although France agreed with the UK.
Sir Keir said: “As we enter a new phase in this conflict, we must now deepen our solidarity even further.”
He added: “There can be no discussion about Ukraine without Ukraine.
“And the people of Ukraine must have long-term security.”
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This week has seen US officials meet their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to discuss Ukraine – which has been met with indignation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as none of his team were invited.
No Europeans were invited either, sparking concern the US is pandering to Vladimir Putin.
Sir Keir has promised Mr Zelenskyy he will make the case for safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty when he meets with Mr Trump, who has called the Ukrainian president a dictator.
Mr Trump also said Sir Keir and French President Emmanuel Macron, who will visit the White House too this week, “haven’t done anything” to end the war.
The prime minister has announced £200m for Grangemouth ahead of the closure of Scotland’s last oil refinery.
Sir Keir Starmer, speaking at the Scottish Labour conference on Sunday, said the cash would come from the National Wealth Fund for an “investment in Scotland’s industrial future”.
Grangemouth oil refinery, on the banks of the Firth of Forth, is set to cease operation this summer and transition into an import terminal, making 400 workers redundant.
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Sir Keir said: “We will grasp the opportunities at Grangemouth, work alongside partners to develop viable proposals, team up with business to get new industries off the ground and to attract private investors into the partnership we need.
“We will allocate £200m from the National Wealth Fund for investment in Grangemouth.”
The money comes on top of a £100m “growth plan” already in place for the area.
Scotland’s first minister, the SNP’s John Swinney, welcomed the announcement and said it is “important that the Scottish and UK governments work together on securing the future for the workforce”.
The plant will become an import terminal. Pic: Jane Barlow/PA
Sir Keir said the new investment will be a partnership with the private sector, and he is expecting three times the amount the government is putting in to come from private investors.
The prime minister said he believes the transition to clean energy is a “golden opportunity for Britain, especially for Scotland”, and is essential for national security as it “gets Putin’s boots off our throat”.
However, he said oil and gas are also “vital for our security” so will be “part of the future of Scotland for decades to come”.
As well as the investment in Grangemouth’s future, Sir Keir said every person made redundant will get 18 months full pay and a skills and training offer “backed up with up to £10m”.
Any business in Grangemouth that takes on those workers will get National Insurance relief, he also said.
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Petroineos, which owns Grangemouth, announced last September it was to close Grangemouth by this summer because it was unable to compete with sites in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
The refinery is understood to have been losing about £395,000 a day when it made the announcement and was on course to lose about £153m this year.
The company said the decision would “safeguard fuel supply for Scotland” by converting the site into a terminal able to import petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and kerosene into Scotland.
However, it said that would only need a workforce of fewer than 100 employees.
Petroineos announced its intention to close the plant in November 2023 but union leaders had hoped it could remain open for longer to provide time for a green alternative to be established there.
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