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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

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NHL draft Round 1 reaction: Smart and questionable picks, best remaining prospects

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NHL draft Round 1 reaction: Smart and questionable picks, best remaining prospects

That was one interesting first round of the NHL draft — fitting for a Las Vegas show.

Everything from Beckett Sennecke going No. 3 overall and swearing on TV, to Celine Dion and Michael Buffer’s surprise appearances, to Zeev Buium falling into Minnesota’s lap at 12. Plenty of pick-swap trades, as expected, but nearly every lottery pick stayed put.

The use of technology inside Sphere with player mosaics was different and cool, allowing for innovative graphics, introduction videos and an immersive experience.

Centralizing the draft in Vegas at Sphere was a fun and unique approach given how different it is from an NHL arena. Using celebrities with ties to respective teams to draft players was well done. The trade horn brought some spunk and was especially funny when it was played while commissioner Gary Bettman was attempting to announce a trade. The NHL deserves high marks for stepping outside the box and executing the draft in a fun and unique way.

Here’s a rundown of the smart and questionable selections from the first round, and a look at the best remaining prospects on the board for Rounds 2-7 on Saturday.

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Jay Slater: ‘Massive search’ for missing teenager set to begin almost two weeks after 19-year-old’s disappearance

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Jay Slater: 'Massive search' for missing teenager set to begin almost two weeks after 19-year-old's disappearance

A “massive search” for British teenager Jay Slater will get under way in Tenerife today, almost two weeks after the apprentice bricklayer went missing.

The Civil Guard said they would step up their search for the 19-year-old after appealing for volunteer associations, such as firefighters, and individual volunteers with experience in navigating difficult terrain to help them.

Police and volunteers will begin their search at 9am in the village of Masca, near Mr Slater‘s last-known location, and attempt to retrace his last-known steps.

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Appeal for volunteers in Jay Slater search

In a statement, police said: “The massive search will be carried out on Saturday, 29 June from 9am.

“Bearing in mind that this is an abrupt, rocky area, full of unevenness and with a multitude of ravines, paths and roads, the collaboration of all those associations of volunteers who can help in this raid that is intended to be carried out in a directed and coordinated manner is requested.”

Sky’s North of England correspondent Shingi Mararike in Tenerife said the search “is perhaps a final push from the Civil Guard to make some kind of headway”.

Mr Slater, from Oswaldtwistle, Lancashire, disappeared after trying to walk back to his accommodation after missing a bus on Monday last week.

More on Jay Slater

He was last pictured at Papayago, the nightclub hosting the end of the New Rave Generation festival, late on 16 June.

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Slater seen by cafe owner

After the event ended, he got in a car with two men, travelling to a small Airbnb in Masca, where a local cafe owner told Sky News he tried to catch a bus back to Los Cristianos, where he was staying.

Ofelia Medina Hernandez said she saw him at 8am on 17 June, and added: “He asked twice what time the bus came.

“He came back and he asked me again, and I told him again, at 10 o’clock. Later I got in my car, and I saw him, he was walking quickly, but I didn’t see him again after that.”

She said he was walking in the wrong direction.

Read more on Sky News:
‘My son went missing – I know how Jay’s parents feel’
Spanish police release new footage of search for Jay Slater
Jay Slater’s father describes ‘nightmare’ of son’s disappearance

A missing persons sign for Jay Slater in San Tiago del Teide. Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser
Image:
A missing persons sign for Jay Slater in San Tiago del Teide. Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser

Last phone call

It comes after one of Mr Slater’s friends told ITV’s This Morning about his last video call with the 19-year-old.

Brad Hargreaves said he saw the missing teenager’s feet slide on rocks during a call at around 8.30am, saying that is how he knew Mr Slater was not on a road.

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He then said Mr Slater went down a “little drop” in one of his last video calls, and added: “He said, ‘look where I am’.

“He didn’t seem concerned on the phone until we knew how far away he was. I said, ‘put your location on’. He said: ’15-minute drive, 14-hour walk’.

“I don’t know if it’s accurate or not so I said to him: ‘It’s only a 15-minute drive, get a taxi’.”

Search teams coordinated by the Civil Guard have since mounted a huge manhunt using helicopters, drones and search dogs to scour mountainous areas of the island, but are yet to find the teenager.

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Jay Slater: Today feels like the beginning of one last push to try to find missing teenager

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Jay Slater: Today feels like the beginning of one last push to try to find missing teenager

In a corner of Tenerife, a winding, narrow road takes you towards a small village called Masca. At points on the route, the view of the sea below and the mountains above is breathtaking.

This place, with its handful of houses and cafes, nestled among ravines and rockfaces, is about a 40-minute drive from the parts of the island most British tourists know, but it might as well be a world away.

There isn’t the bustle of the resort towns in the south, with their clubs and bars. Instead, there are vast expanses of land that are arid and difficult to traverse on foot.

In the 13 days since the disappearance of Jay Slater, a 19-year-old apprentice bricklayer from Lancashire, the hikers and tourists who come to Masca have been joined by two more groups of people.

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Appeal for volunteers in Jay Slater search

The first are the emergency services, including the civil guard, volunteer firefighters and mountain rescue teams carrying out the so-far unsuccessful search for Jay. The second group are journalists like me, trying to understand a case shrouded in speculation and questions.

Jay’s journey

Those questions begin with Jay’s journey which started at Papayago, the nightclub where he was last pictured enjoying the end of the New Rave Generation (NRG) festival late on 16 June.

More on Jay Slater

The club is in Playa De Las Americas, not too far from Los Cristianos where he was staying. Full of British revellers and near the beach, the strip is an area Jay would have been growing familiar with, having been at the festival for two days.

But on the event’s third and final night, instead of going back to the accommodation he was sharing with friends, Jay jumped in a car with two men, travelling to a small Airbnb in Masca.

This is where the information about his movements and whereabouts begins to thin, aside from the testimony of one eyewitness we met on our first full day in Tenerife.

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Ofelia Medina Hernandez runs a cafe above the Airbnb and says she saw Jay at about 8am on 17 June.

“He asked twice what time the bus came,” she told us. “He came back and he asked me again, and I told him again, at 10 o’clock.

“Later I got in my car, and I saw him, he was walking quickly, but I didn’t see him again after that,” she added.

Map showing Jay Slater's last known location on Tenerife, Masca, Los Carrizales where police are searching and Los Cristianos, where Jay's accomodation was

Despite the door to the Airbnb being just yards from a bus stop which would have taken him back down south, Medina Hernandez described Jay walking in the wrong direction.

Another key component of the timeline is a conversation Jay had with a friend on the phone at around 8.30am that day. He told them he was walking back after missing a bus – a journey that would take 11 hours on foot.

He also said he was lost, in need of water, and only had 1% charge on his phone.

His phone is believed to have been last located near an observatory around an 18-minute walk away, which is where the efforts of the emergency services were focused in the first week.

The search

That visible flurry of activity included emergency services using a helicopter, drones and sniffer dogs.

However, as the days went on, that sprawling search became a more tightly focused one, with smaller groups of officers looking at pockets of land, like ravines and caves.

Police search near Los Carrizales caves for Jay Slater. Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser
Image:
Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser

Despite allowing us to film them at a distance, the teams, led by the civil guard, have refused to give much guidance on the ground, instead choosing to release updates and footage via WhatsApp.

With no news conference or formal interviews on offer, they’ve largely kept journalists in the dark.

‘I just want him back’

One group who are hoping for information and updates more than anyone else are Jay’s loved ones.

A small group of his friends and family have stayed in Tenerife, clearly struggling to come to terms with the void left by his absence and the prospect he might not return.

A missing persons sign for Jay Slater in San Tiago del Teide. Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser
Image:
Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser

On the first Saturday after his disappearance, we met his dad Warren and brother Zak for the first time and their anguish was clear.

Speaking to us near Masca, after trying to retrace Jay’s steps, Warren said he was “just hoping that somebody has helped him off this mountain”.

“That’s all I want, that somebody has helped him get off this mountain. I just want him back and that’s it. He’s, my son.”

His voice then cracked and he walked away from the camera and repeated: “I just want him back and that’s it.”

Despite his visible pain, Warren has also to push this search forward in his own way. Two days later in the town of Santiago Del Teide, we meet him again.

Read more:
Friend says Jay slipped down hill in video call moments before disappearance

‘My son went missing in Ibiza – I know how Jay Slater’s parents feel’

Tenerife strip Papagayo nightclub exterior. Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser
Image:
Pic: Adele-Momoko Fraser

That afternoon he was tearful again – but determined, handing out flyers with a small group of friends.

Their reason for choosing the town, which is 7km away from Masca, was because of a grainy CCTV image that suggested Jay was last seen in the town’s square.

Online speculation

The family hinging so much hope on that information was an insight into how this case isn’t just about what’s happening on the ground, but also the narrative online.

A Facebook group called Jay Slater Missing – Only Official Group reached more than 500,000 members in less than a week and was inundated with speculation around the case, before comments in the group were restricted.

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Police share new CCTV image

The noise on social media, coupled with the situation, have added to his family’s distress, something his mother Debbie Duncan who is also in Tenerife, alluded to in a statement.

“I have every faith in them down on the ground and the amazing searches they are carrying out along with more amazing guys up there,” she said.

“As a family we are in a living nightmare. We have no further updates other than Jay is still missing and we are just ignoring the social media side of things.”

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Has the Farage bandwagon crashed?
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It’s clear though that social media has not only hurt the family, they also feel it’s helped them too, a point Debbie made when specifically thanking Paul Arnott.

A hiker from Bedfordshire, he has travelled from Fort William in Scotland to Spain and promised to stay however long it takes to find the teenager.

Never too far from the police search, Paul has been scrambling down ridges and climbing hills on his own while regularly updating his followers in TikTok.

Away from the small screen is the reality of the situation, as the search for Jay enters its 13th day.

It’s a period that promises to be pivotal, with the Spanish Civil Guard calling on volunteer agencies such as Civil Protection and firefighters, as well as “individual volunteers who are experts in rugged search terrain”.

In a case that has seen every twist and turn followed in places well beyond the rugged terrain of North West Tenerife, today feels like the beginning of one last push to try to find Jay Slater.

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