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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

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Arrests after Trump-Epstein images projected on to Windsor Castle

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Arrests after Trump-Epstein images projected on to Windsor Castle

Giant projections of Donald Trump alongside paedophile Jeffrey Epstein have been beamed on to Windsor Castle by protesters as the US president arrived in the UK for his second state visit.

Mr Trump has faced mounting questions about his relationship with the disgraced late billionaire after messages allegedly sent to him by the US president were published by Congress earlier this month.

Follow Trump’s second state visit live

A giant image of Epstein
Image:
A giant image of Epstein

Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell
Image:
Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell

The US president's mugshot was projected on the castle too
Image:
The US president’s mugshot was projected on the castle too

The apparent notes – which Mr Trump denies having written – appeared in a 2003 “birthday book” for Epstein.

Four people were arrested on “suspicion of malicious communications” after the images of Mr Trump and Epstein appeared on the landmark, Thames Valley Police said.

Two men were also arrested for breaching airspace restrictions in place for Mr Trump’s visit.

Donald Trump, Melania Trump and Jeffrey Epstein
Image:
Donald Trump, Melania Trump and Jeffrey Epstein

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

The president is being feted with a stay in Windsor Castle, where he will be hosted by the King and treated to a ceremonial welcome on Wednesday and later, a lavish state banquet.

The Prince and Princess of Wales will meet the president and first lady Melania Trump in the grounds of the Windsor estate, where he will spend the day, before heading to the prime minister’s country residence Chequers on Thursday.

It is hoped the Queen – who pulled out of attending the Duchess of Kent’s funeral on Tuesday after suffering from acute sinusitis – will recover in time to attend the busy run of royal events.

Read more: No one does pomp better than Britain

There are no public-facing engagements for the president throughout his 48-hour state visit, with thousands of people expected to take part in a major protest against his stay in central London today.

The Metropolitan Police said it is preparing for “a significant operation” with as many as 50 protest groups expected to take part.

More than 1,600 officers will be deployed, including 500 assisting from other forces.

What will happen today?

The Prince and Princess of Wales will greet the president and his wife in the grounds of the Windsor estate in the morning, before accompanying them to meet the King and Queen for an open-air greeting.

Mr and Mrs Trump, the King, Camilla, William, and Kate will then take part in a carriage procession through the estate to the castle, with the carriage ride joined by the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment, which will provide a Sovereign’s Escort, as well as members of the armed forces and three military bands.

A ceremonial welcome with a guard of honour will be staged in the quadrangle of the castle, as is customary, followed by lunch with the royal family and a visit to see a Royal Collection exhibition within the castle.

The president and his wife will then visit St George’s Chapel privately on Wednesday afternoon to lay a wreath on the tomb of Queen Elizabeth II, whom they both met on their first state visit.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

The traditional grand state banquet is set to follow in the castle’s St George’s Hall in the evening, with both Mr Trump and the King to give speeches as the event gets under way.

A small group of protesters from the Stop Trump Coalition were in Windsor on Tuesday night.

Two protesters from the activist group Fossil Free London were escorted out of a dinner organised by Republicans Overseas UK at Windsor Guildhall in the Berkshire town.

They chanted “how many will you kill if you drill baby drill” and unfurled a banner that said: “Oily Money Kills” at the event.

Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump disembark Air Force One. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump disembark Air Force One. Pic: Reuters

Speaking to reporters mid-flight, Mr Trump said: “My relationship is very good with the UK, and Charles, as you know, who’s now King, is my friend.

“It’s the first time this has ever happened where somebody was honoured twice. So, it’s a great honour.”

He told the journalists “everybody is looking forward to it. You’re going to have the best pictures”.

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Sports

Cal Raleigh Home Run Watch: After two more on Tuesday, will the Big Dumper hit 60?

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Cal Raleigh Home Run Watch: After two more on Tuesday, will the Big Dumper hit 60?

The Big Dumper just left the yard again!

In what has become a regular occurrence during Cal Raleigh‘s incredible 2025 season, the Seattle Mariners catcher added two more home runs to his historic total Tuesday — and passed another MLB legend in the process.

Raleigh has already surpassed the record for home runs by a catcher and by a switch-hitter and joined the prestigious 50-homer club, and who could forget his Home Run Derby triumph earlier this summer?

What record could Raleigh set next, how many home runs will he finish with and just how impressive is his season? We’ve got it all covered.

Raleigh must-reads: Raleigh’s road to homer history | Surprising 50-HR seasons | Best power half-seasons in MLB history


Raleigh’s current pace

Raleigh is now at 56 home runs and on pace for 60 with 11 games left.

The American League record is 62, set by Aaron Judge in 2022, and there have been only nine 60-home run seasons in MLB history.


Who Raleigh passed with his latest home run

With his 55th and 56th home runs Tuesday, Raleigh passed Mickey Mantle (yes, you read that right: The Mick himself) for the most in a season by a switch-hitter.

Raleigh and Mantle (who reached the mark twice) are the only switch-hitters in MLB history with 50 long balls in a single season — well ahead of Lance Berkman and Chipper Jones, who each hit 45 in their most prolific home run season.


Who Raleigh can catch with his next home run

The next milestone up for Raleigh is passing Ken Griffey Jr.’s Mariners franchise record of 56, which Raleigh tied with his two-homer effort Tuesday. That’s a number Griffey reached twice — in the 1997 and 1998 seasons.

Raleigh has already joined Griffey as the only Mariners with 50 home runs (or even 45) in a season. Raleigh is also the first Seattle slugger with 40 homers in a season since Nelson Cruz in 2016.


Raleigh’s 5 most impressive feats of 2025

Most home runs in a season by a switch-hitter

With his 55th home run, Raleigh knocked Mickey Mantle, who hit 54 in 1961, from the top spot. Breaking Salvador Perez‘s record of 48 home runs by a primary catcher understandably got a lot of attention, but beating Mantle’s mark is arguably more impressive given how long the record stood and the Hall of Famer’s stature.

One of the best months ever for a catcher

In May, Raleigh hit .304/.430/.739 with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs. Only four catchers have hit more home runs in a calendar month and only eight with at least 100 plate appearances produced a higher slugging percentage. Raleigh was almost as good in June, hitting .300/.398/.690 with 11 home runs and 27 RBIs, giving him two-month totals of .302/.414/.714 with 23 home runs and 53 RBIs. In one blazing 24-game stretch from May 12 to June 7, Raleigh hit .319 with 14 home runs.

Reaching 100 runs and 100 RBIs

Raleigh is sitting on 101 runs scored while leading the American League with 115 RBIs. Only eight other primary catchers have reached 100 in both categories in the same season — Mike Piazza did it twice, in 1997 and 1999, and he and Ivan Rodriguez were the last catchers to do it in ’99. Of the other catchers, seven are in the Hall of Fame (Piazza, Rodriguez, Mickey Cochrane, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Johnny Bench and Carlton Fisk). The lone exception is Darrell Porter, who reached the milestone with the Royals in 1979.

Tying Ken Griffey Jr.’s club record for home runs

Griffey hit 56 home runs for the Mariners in 1997 and 1998, leading the AL both seasons and winning the MVP Award in 1997 (he and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 are Seattle’s two MVP winners). Griffey had the advantage of playing in the cozy confines of the Kingdome in those years, although his home/road splits were fairly even. Raleigh, however, has had to play in a tough park to hit in, with 30 of his 56 home runs coming on the road, where his OPS is about 100 points higher. That marks only the 19th time a player has reached 30 road homers (by contrast, 30 homers at home has been accomplished 37 times).

An outside shot at most total bases by a catcher

With 317 total bases, Raleigh’s 2025 campaign is already one of only 20 catcher seasons with 300 total bases (yes, time at DH has helped him here). The record is 355, shared by Piazza in 1997 and Bench in 1970 (both played 150-plus games in those seasons). Raleigh would need a strong finish to get there but could at least move into third place ahead of Perez’s 337 total bases in 2021. Not counted in Raleigh’s total bases: his 14 stolen bases!

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UK

Trump will be treated to full pomp and pageantry – and no one does it better than Britain

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Trump will be treated to full pomp and pageantry - and no one does it better than Britain

While the nature of Donald Trump’s second state visit is indeed unusual, from the moment Sir Keir Starmer delivered the gold-edged invitation it began a process steeped in tradition.

State visits are usually reserved to one per head of state, with Trump last hosted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2019.

Typically, second-term US presidents are offered a shorter visit, perhaps tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle. But the red carpet is literally being rolled out once again, with Trump receiving a second full state visit, with all the pomp and pageantry it entails.

An indication was given early on in Trump’s second term that he’d be receptive to a second state visit, and so – on perhaps the advice of the new prime minister – the King issued a second invitation.

The greatest form of tradition is one that always evolves, and so this may now set a new precedent for presidents who are voted out but then return to serve a second term.

Trump and his wife Melania with the then Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall in 2019. Pic: PA
Image:
Trump and his wife Melania with the then Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall in 2019. Pic: PA

Any nation can hold a state visit, but what is unique about Britain remains our internationally respected pageantry.

Even down to the very invitation – there is a very precise format for inviting someone on a state visit.

An invite must be issued, established by international law. Written on a special gold-edged paper, embossed with a golden coat of arms that is issued, it forms part of a historic archive.

Breaches of protocol

Much has been made in the past about moments where protocol was breached – Michelle Obama famously put her arm around Queen Elizabeth in 2011, but, in all honesty, I doubt very much the Queen was upset by this.

In a breach of protocol during a visit to the UK in 2009, Michelle Obama touched the late Queen. Pic: AP
Image:
In a breach of protocol during a visit to the UK in 2009, Michelle Obama touched the late Queen. Pic: AP

The fuss was not made by the late monarch, who accepted that what mattered was that Americans should be made very welcome on behalf of the UK.

And then criticism emerged against Trump, who appeared to make the Queen change places when the Guard of Honour was to be inspected.

But, in truth, it was Elizabeth II who had to correct herself because, in her long life as sovereign, she never escorted a visiting president.

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When Trump met the Queen – and protocol was breached

The escort should stand further from the troops and her self-correction was misinterpreted as his error.

Trump’s visit this time will likely generate just as many headlines, but I don’t think there will be critical moments where a breach occurs.

What will happen today?

The Prince and Princess of Wales will greet the president and his wife in the grounds of the Windsor estate in the morning, before accompanying them to meet the King and Queen for an open-air greeting.

Mr and Mrs Trump, the King, Camilla, William, and Kate will then take part in a carriage procession through the estate to the castle, with the carriage ride joined by the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment, which will provide a Sovereign’s Escort, as well as members of the armed forces and three military bands.

A ceremonial welcome with a guard of honour will be staged in the quadrangle of the castle, as is customary, followed by lunch with the royal family and a visit to see a Royal Collection exhibition within the castle.

The president and his wife will then visit St George’s Chapel privately on Wednesday afternoon to lay a wreath on the tomb of Queen Elizabeth II, whom they both met on their first state visit.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

The traditional grand state banquet is set to follow in the castle’s St George’s Hall in the evening, with both Mr Trump and the King to give speeches as the event gets underway.

What it means for Trump – and is it worth it?

Trump’s mother would cut out and keep in a scrapbook containing pictures of the young Princess Elizabeth and her sister, Margaret Rose. It was an era before endless celebrity news, a time when public life revolved around the royals, the war, and survival.

And the president loved his mother, like many men do, so these things mean an enormous amount to him.

Read more:
No state visit has had a backdrop quite like this

Trump and Charles inspect the Guard of Honour. Pic: PA
Image:
Trump and Charles inspect the Guard of Honour. Pic: PA

When the horses go back to the stables and the carriages are put away, the impact of this visit will remain fresh in the mind of a president who may feel his nation – and maybe even he himself – have been affirmed by their ally.

Quite apart from the politics, although much will be said and written on that, there is one great hope for any state visit: that the country so many (myself included) have fought for can be safer and more successful as a result of the pomp and pageantry on display.

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