US office real estate prices headed for 'severe crash,' investors say

Published

2 years ago

October 3, 2023

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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

Politics

‘I wish I’d never met him’: Peter Mandelson ‘regrets’ association with Jeffrey Epstein

Published

6 mins ago

May 27, 2025

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'I wish I'd never met him': Peter Mandelson 'regrets' association with Jeffrey Epstein

Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador to the United States, has told Sky News he “regrets” his association with paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

Lord Mandelson‘s links to the late billionaire were exposed in a 2019 report by JP Morgan bank, filed in a New York court.

Epstein killed himself in August of that year while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking minors.

He had previously served an 18-month sentence after pleading guilty to procuring a person under the age of 18 for prostitution.

Whilst serving that sentence, the JP Morgan report suggests that Mr Mandelson stayed at Epstein’s Manhattan flat.

Epstein wrote to his private banker on 17 June 2009: “Peter will be staying at 71st over weekend…”

At the time, Lord Mandelson was the Business Secretary in the UK government under then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown. He was appointed UK ambassador to the United States in December 2024.

Sky News asked him if he did, indeed, stay at Epstein’s flat while the disgraced financier was in jail.

He replied: “I’m not answering any questions about him. My knowledge of him is something I regret, I wish I’d never met him in the first place.”

Asked why he had an association with Epstein whilst he was in jail, Lord Mandelson replied: “Why did many people meet him? He was a prolific networker. And I wish I’d never met him in the first place.”

As US ambassador, Lord Mandelson represents Britain’s interests in Washington and has vowed to treat Donald Trump‘s administration with “respect, seriousness and understanding of where they are coming from politically”.

This comes after Lord Mandelson described the US president as a “danger to the world”, for which he apologised earlier this year.

He told the Alain Elkann Interviews podcast in 2019: “What Donald Trump represents and believes is an anathema to mainstream British opinion.”

Mr Mandelson added: “Even those who have a sneaking admiration for Donald Trump because of his personality, nonetheless regard him as reckless, and a danger to the world.”

But in January this year, Lord Mandelson said he now considered his remarks “as ill-judged and wrong”.

World

Palestinians flock to Gaza aid centres despite concerns – as lawyers call for sanctions on Israel

Published

6 mins ago

May 27, 2025

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Palestinians flock to Gaza aid centres despite concerns - as lawyers call for sanctions on Israel

Thousands of Palestinians have flocked to aid distribution sites in Gaza with desperation for food overcoming concerns over Israeli-enforced checks at the centres.

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which is backed by Israel and the US, said on Tuesday it had distributed around 8,000 food boxes, equivalent to about 462,000 meals – just a fraction of what is needed, aid agencies say.

The centres have opened as hundreds of legal professionals in the UK, including lawyers and former judges, accused Israel of “genocide” and “war crimes”.

Crowds including women and children could be seen at one centre in Rafah, southern Gaza, where people received packages including rice, flour, canned beans, pasta, olive oil, biscuits and sugar.

Witnesses in Rafah said Israeli gunfire was heard after desperate people broke fences to reach supplies.

The Israeli military said its forces did not direct aerial gunfire towards the centre, but rather fired warning shots in an area outside the hub.

In a statement, it said control over the situation had been established, with aid distribution to continue as planned.

Many Palestinians stayed away amid fears over Israel’s plan to use biometric screening procedures on those receiving vital food packages.

Israeli officials said one advantage of the new aid system is the chance to screen recipients to exclude anyone they say is connected with Hamas.

Humanitarian groups briefed on the plans say anyone receiving aid will have to submit to facial recognition technology – which many Palestinians fear will end up in Israeli hands to track and possibly target them.

Father-of-seven Abu Ahmed said: “As much as I want to go because I am hungry and my children are hungry, I am afraid.”

He continued: “I am so scared because they said the company [GHF] belongs to Israel and is a mercenary, and also because the resistance [Hamas] said not to go.”

UN boycotts aid foundation

Israel previously said its forces would not be involved in the distribution points but its endorsement of the plan, which resembles Israeli schemes floated previously, has led to many questioning the neutrality of GHF.

The United Nations and major international aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF – accusing it of undermining the principle that aid should be distributed based on need.

“Humanitarian assistance must not be politicised or militarised,” said Christian Cardon, chief spokesperson of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Ex-judges call for sanctions on Israel

Over 800 legal professionals – including former Supreme Court judges – have published an open letter calling for the UK to impose sanctions on Israel.

The letter says “genocide is being perpetrated in Gaza or that, at a minimum, there is a serious risk of genocide”. It continues: “War crimes, crimes against humanity and serious violations of international humanitarian law are being committed.”

Israel has consistently denied these accusations.

As a small flow of aid has arrived in Gaza after Israel’s months-long blockade, Israeli forces have kept up attacks on various targets in the territory.

Some 3,901 Palestinians have been killed since a ceasefire collapsed in mid-March, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.

As the GHF centres opened on Monday, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 36 people in a school-turned-shelter that was hit as people slept, according to local health officials.

Israel said it targeted militants operating from the school.

US