The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.
Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.
When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.
Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.
The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.
Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.
Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.
Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.
Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.
In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.
Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.
Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.
Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.
The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.
While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.
Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.
One of the City watchdog’s top executives is to step down after an eventful eight-year tenure in which he also applied to run Britain’s competition regulator.
Sky News has learnt that Sheldon Mills, the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) executive director, consumers and competition, is to leave in the coming months.
Mr Mills, who joined the FCA in 2018, is understood to have been asked to lead a review of the growing use of artificial intelligence in the delivery of financial advice to consumers after he steps down.
His departure from one of the UK’s most powerful economic regulators is understood to have been communicated to FCA employees late last week.
Mr Mills, who has also chaired Stonewall, the LGBTQ+ charity, is said to have been on a leave of absence for much of the last 12 months.
The FCA website says his executive duties are “currently being covered by Sarah Pritchard and David Geale, Managing Director, [Payment Systems Regulator]”.
Insiders said the financial services watchdog would shortly advertise for a new executive director of markets, Ms Pritchard’s former role.
The shake-up comes months after Nikhil Rathi, the FCA chief executive, was appointed to a second five-year term by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor.
Ministers have been pressing Britain’s main economic regulators this year to adopt growth-oriented policies and remove red tape for businesses as the economy struggles.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has promised to “grip the cost of living” in the budget next week.
Writing in The Mirror newspaper, she acknowledged that high prices “hit ordinary families most” and that the economy “feels stuck” for too many.
But at the same time, she is expected to raise taxes when she sets out economic policies on 26 November as she seeks to bridge a multibillion-pound gap in her spending plans.
“Delivering on our promise to make people better off is not possible if we don’t get a grip on inflation,” Ms Reeves wrote in The Sunday Times.
“It is a fundamental precursor to economic growth. It is essential to make families better off and for businesses to thrive.
“There is an urgent need to ease the pressure on households now. It will require direct action by this government to get inflation under control.”
She said reforms would change the welfare system from “trapping millions of people on benefits” to one “designed to help people succeed”.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Among the rumoured measures in the budget is an extension of the freeze on income tax thresholds, which would see more people dragged into paying tax for the first time or shifted into a higher rate as their wages go up.
However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said Ms Reeves should “have the balls” to admit that such a move would breach Labour’s manifesto promise not to raise taxes on working people.
Nathan Gill’s actions were “treasonous” but people should not “besmirch everyone else at Reform”, the party’s head of policy Zia Yusuf has said.
Gill, the former leader of Reform UK in Wales, was jailed for 10 and a half years last week after he admitted accepting tens of thousands of pounds in cash to make pro-Russian statements to the media and European Parliament.
Asked by Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips if the case showed the party was soft on President Vladimir Putin, Mr Yusuf said that would be an “incredibly unreasonable position to take”.
He said: “Nathan Gill, what he did was treasonous, it was horrific, it was awful. He’s been dealt with by the authorities and he deserves the sentence that he got.”
He added: “As far as we’re concerned he is ancient history. I’ve never met him, I had never heard about him until I saw he was in the newspapers. It is unreasonable to besmirch Reform and the millions of people around the country who support Nigel and support our party.”
Gill, 52, was announced as the leader of Reform UK in Wales in March 2021, but quit the party a few months later after he failed to be elected to the Senedd.
He previously led the Welsh wing of UKIP (UK Independence Party) between 2014 and 2016, then ran by Nigel Farage, and was a member of the Senedd between 2016 and 2017, as well as an MEP between 2014 and 2020.
More from Politics
Gill left UKIP in 2019 to join Mr Farage’s new Brexit Party – later rebranded as Reform UK.
Image: Former leader of Reform UK in Wales, Nathan Gill. Pic: PA
Following an investigation by counter-terrorism police, officers said they believe Gill likely took a minimum of £40,000 in cash.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer demanded an investigation into links between Reform UK and Russia following the case.
Mr Farage’s position on Russia has come under scrutiny in the past. He faced a backlash during the general election campaign when he spoke about the incursion of NATO and how “we provoked this war”in Ukraine.
Speaking to Trevor Phillips, Mr Yusuf insisted his boss has never supported or been sympathetic to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, saying it is “not Nigel’s position that ‘we provoked the war’.”
He said: “When he [Farage] was pressed as to how he would respond if he was prime minister and Russian jets encroached into NATO airspace, his view was that those planes should be shot down. We are crystal clear about our position.
“I would also say this: the notion that Vladimir Putin, the murderous dictator, is making decisions based on what Nigel Farage is saying here in England, I think is for the birds.
“We are now in a situation where Ukraine’s sovereignty has been violated, and Vladimir Putin needs to be brought to heel.”
But Labour accused Reform of “pandering to Moscow” following the interview.
Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, said Mr Farage has previously called Mr Putin “the leader he most admired and has repeatedly parroted Kremlin talking points”.
She added: “Reform must urgently allow an independent investigation to root out pro-Russia links, to assure the public that Putin holds no sway over their party or its representatives.”
Police have confirmed Mr Farage has not been part of the investigation into Gill.
Mr Farage said on Friday: “An investigation into Russian and Chinese influence over British politics would be welcome.”
The Reform UK MP for Clacton had previously described his former colleague as a “bad apple” and said he was “shocked” after Gill pleaded guilty to bribery.
He said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people.
“You can never, ever guarantee 100% that everyone you meet in your life, you shake hands with in the pub, is a good person.”