Wind and solar are mushrooming globally, but drought is throwing a wrench in the works – here’s what renewable growth is looking like in 2023.
Emissions from global electricity generation plateaued in the first half of 2023, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year, according to a report published today by energy think tank Ember. However, despite the growth of wind and solar, it was adverse hydro conditions – likely exacerbated by climate change – that prevented emissions from falling.
(Ember’s report analyzes electricity data from January to June 2023, compared to the same period last year, across 78 countries representing 92% of global electricity demand.)
Wind and solar were the only two renewable sources that significantly increased their share of global electricity, together providing 14.3% of global electricity in the first half of 2023, compared to 12.8% in the same period last year.
Solar, in particular, is growing at a rapid pace (+16%, +104 TWh), with 50 countries setting new monthly records for solar generation in the first half of 2023. China continues to be the leader in solar generation, providing a massive 43% of global growth, while the EU, US, and India each accounted for about 12%.
But the first half of this year saw a historic fall in hydro generation (-8.5%, -177 TWh) due to droughts, with China accounting for three-quarters of this. As a result, fossil fuel generation increased slightly to meet the deficit created by hydro overall, but in China, coal generation increased to a new record high (+8%, +203 TWh).
Had global hydro generation been at the same level as last year, power sector emissions would have fallen by 2.9% – and had hydro generation been unchanged year-over-year, China’s coal generation would have increased far more slowly.
Despite the hydro deficit, it could have been worse – low electricity demand growth helped to suppress emissions growth. Global electricity demand rose only 0.4% in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year, which is much lower than the 10-year historic average (+2.6%).
Falls in demand in some major economies due to factors like warmer weather, policy measures to reduce demand, and reduced energy use due to the cost of living crisis led to significant declines in coal power, most notably in the EU (-23%). As a result, emissions fell in the EU (-17%), Japan (-12%), the US (-8.6%), and South Korea (-3%). Moderate demand growth in India led to slow growth in coal generation, which slowed down the country’s emissions rise to 3.1% in the first half of 2023 compared to 11% in the same period last year.
Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, the lead author of the report and senior electricity analyst at Ember, said:
It’s still hanging in the balance if 2023 will see a fall in power sector emissions.
While it is encouraging to see the remarkable growth of wind and solar energy, we can’t ignore the stark reality of adverse hydro conditions intensified by climate change. The world is teetering at the peak of power sector emissions, and we now need to unleash the momentum for a rapid decline in fossil fuels by securing a global agreement to triple renewables capacity this decade.
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BYD’s new electric car may be small, but it’s expected to be a big problem for Toyota and other Japanese auto brands.
BYD’s first EV kei car will give Toyota a wake-up call
It’s no secret by now that BYD is best known for its ultra-affordable EVs. It’s cheapest, the Seagull, can be bought for under $10,000 in China.
At the Japan Mobility Show on Friday, the Chinese EV giant will unveil a new type of vehicle. BYD will debut its first electric kei car, or what it calls a “light EV.”
If you’re not familiar, kei cars are one of the most popular choices in Japan as affordable, ultra-compact vehicles perfect for getting around the city. About a third of passenger vehicles sold in Japan last year were kei cars.
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BYD is preparing to take its first crack at the market, a rare move for a foreign brand. Domestic automakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have historically dominated the Japanese market. Last year, they accounted for over 90% of the 3.7 million new cars sold in the country.
BYD previews its first electric kei car (light EV) Source: BYD
Although it launched its first vehicle in January 2023, BYD has struggled to gain traction in Japan. Since entering the market, the company has only sold about 6,600 electric vehicles. That’s far from what it was expected to sell at this time.
“In terms of our initial expectations, our sales in Japan are missing a zero,” Atsuki Tofukuji, BYD’s head of sales in Japan, told Reuters in an interview.
Although BYD’s electric kei car won’t go on sale until next year, government officials and auto industry leaders are already preparing for a shake-up.
According to Reuters, over half a dozen Japanese government officials and auto industry insiders said the government is still paying close attention to China’s EV leader.
Three of them even admitted BYD represented “a much-needed wake-up call for Japanese automakers that have been focused primarily on hybrid technology,” the report said, like Toyota.
BYD Dolphin (left) and Atto 3 (right) at the 2024 Tokyo Spring Festival (Source BYD Japan)
Meanwhile, BYD sees an opportunity as more buyers in Japan shift from gas-powered cars to EVs. The automaker aims to establish its presence in all 47 prefectures in Japan by the end of 2026, Tofukuji said during the interview.
After updating its EV subsidy program last year, Japan now takes into account factors such as the number of charging stations an automaker builds.
BYD seal in Japan (Source: BYD)
The changes make BYD vehicles eligible for a 350,000 yen ($2,300) subsidy, down from up to 850,000 yen they previously qualified for.
Although BYD has yet to reveal prices, it’s expected to use in-house Blade LFP batteries to cut costs. It’s expected to start at around 2.5 million yen ($18,000), putting it on par with the Nissan Sakura, Japan’s best-selling EV last year.
Honda also launched its first electric kei car, the N-ONE, last month. Prices for the Honda N-ONE EV start at 2.7 million yen ($18,300).
BYD will unveil the new EV at the Japan Mobility Show, which opens on Friday, October 30. Press days start on Thursday, October 29. Check back soon for the latest updates.
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That’s even though he had claimed Tesla was now an “AI company” and that AI products were “critical to Tesla’s future”. Furthermore, the fact that he didn’t have close to 25% control was due to his own doing: selling Tesla shares to buy Twitter.
The CEO insists that his request for more shares is not about the money that comes with them but to have “control” over the AI products, especially the robots, that Tesla may eventually produce.
The problem with this narrative is that Musk consistently ignores other ways to increase his stake in Tesla without issuing more stock options, such as stock buybacks.
Lately, and amid an upcoming shareholders’ vote on a new CEO compensation package proposed by Tesla’s board, Musk has updated his threat from “not building AI products at Tesla” to “leaving Tesla”.
The CEO has both made the threat directly and through the company’s board over the last week.
Elon Musk already has full control over Tesla
The board is framing the compensation package, which is worth up to $1 trillion, as a way to keep Musk motivated to work at Tesla.
First off, Musk is already the largest individual shareholder in Tesla and therefore, he benefits the most from Tesla’s share price increase. He should already have plenty of motivations.
Other CEOs, such as Jeff Bezos, notoriously didn’t give themselves any stock options to run their companies for that specific reason.
Jeff Bezos explains why he didn’t take additional equity building Amazon
Jeff is asked why he only paid himself $80,000 per year and never took additional equity during his tenure as CEO of Amazon. He responds:
Others, such as Musk’s close friend Larry Ellison, did stock buybacks at Oracle rather than granting himself stock options to increase his stake in the company, benefiting all shareholders.
Secondly, Musk already has full control over Tesla.
Can anyone name a single instance over the last 20 years of Tesla’s existence where Musk didn’t get his way?
He was even caught lying to shareholders by the SEC, yet instead of being banned from running Tesla, he was allowed to retain his role as CEO and had to step down only as Tesla’s chairman for three years.
Musk installed a puppet chairperson who has been doing precisely what he wants for the last 7 years, including proposing increasingly more ridiculous CEO compensation plans.
Furthermore, Tesla has a strong retail shareholder base that believes everything he says and approves of these ridiculous CEO compensation plans.
There’s literally no evidence that Musk is lacking control over Tesla.
Why Elon Musk won’t leave Tesla
Musk and the board are trying to frame this as a confidence vote because that’s a lot easier to pass than giving up to $1 trillion to the CEO, but I don’t think Musk has any intention of leaving Tesla.
As I wrote in the last section, he already effectively controls Tesla.
If he were to leave, he would likely sell his shares, as he is not known to invest in companies that he is not actively involved in. For example, he invested in Twitter only a few months before he went for a full takeover.
As we have previously highlighted in the Tesla dilemma report, Musk’s leaving would likely result in a short-term crash in Tesla’s share price, as most of the company’s market capitalization currently hinges on Musk’s claims that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving and that its humanoid robot program is worth trillions of dollars.
There’s little to no evidence to support either of those claims. Shareholders believe it because of Musk. If Musk leaves, he will leave behind the belief in those programs.
Therefore, Musk’s stake in Tesla would be worth much less if he left.
Furthermore, the sale of his Tesla shares is likely to put tremendous pressure on the share price, resulting in him getting a lot less for them.
All of these things are self-defeating for Musk.
Electrek’s Take
Musk is bluffing. Plain and simple.
There are a few things that are incredibly wrong about this stock compensation package, and these blackmailing threats are forcing shareholders to ignore them.
First off, shareholders like to focus on Musk only getting paid if Tesla’s stock continues to increase, which is technically true, but not the proper way to look at it.
The way the plan is structured, Musk could get the first few tranches of the compensation plans over the next 10 years, while Tesla returns below the S&P average returns. That makes no sense.
Why give the CEO up to $40 billion, the biggest CEO pay ever, for returning below average returns?
The go-to argument from Elon fans is: you don’t want him to get paid?
The problem with that is Musk is the one who is forcing this all-or-nothing compensation plan. It’s like the board is also having shareholders vote on a more reasonable compensation package.
If you are to believe Musk and the board, you give him the most ridiculous compensation package of all time, or he leaves.
You should be extremely wary of anyone giving you such a choice.
Lastly, I want to highlight that the compensation package’s milestones are poorly designed. Why is delivering unsupervised self-driving as promised and sold to customers for almost a decade not in the milestones?
Instead, there are things like “10 million active Full Self-Driving”, which could be achieved without delivering the promised unsupervised self-driving, and “1 million Robotaxis in commercial operation”, which has the same issue, considering Tesla counts its ride-hailing service on FSD as “robotaxis”.
The compensation package is designed to be abused and benefit Musk way more than the shareholders.
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Young American EV brand Slate hit the public with not one, but two, press announcements this morning. First, Slate confirmed its flagship vehicle will utilize the North American Charging Standard (NACS), enabling access to the Tesla Supercharger network. Speaking of networks, the company has also secured a national service partner for its vehicles after they reach customers.
Ever since Slate popped up in the internet ether last spring, we’ve been excited to report any and all updates on the American EV startup. As you may recall, Slate approach to EVs revolves around “Blank Slate” design.
Its flagship product is a bare-bones all-electric pickup, with the option for customers to add over 100 accessories, as well as a five-seat SUV conversion kit. In late August, Slate opened the doors of its future home to EV production – repurposing a paper plant in Warsaw, Indiana.
It is there that Slate targets a start of vehicle production in Q4 2026, ahead of initial customer deliveries. While that milestone still remains over a year away, Slate has shared some tidbits that those would-be customers can look forward to, including confirmation of the NACS charging port.
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Source: Slate.auto
Slate confirms Tesla Supercharging with NACS
Slate’s comms team issued two separate press releases this morning, confirming that its flagship model will offer access to Tesla’s Supercharger network via the NACS port, which has become the widely accepted standard among nearly all automakers.
What’s even more exciting is that Slate’s news extends beyond NACS-enabled Tesla charging, as it has secured an OEM partnership with RepairPal, an online search tool that helps you find certified service and repair centers near you. If it wasn’t clear enough when Slate debuted, promising an ultra-affordable “no frills” electric pickup, the American startup is trying to disrupt the EV industry.
Its partnership with RepairPal is another example of this strategy, offering future owners the freedom to have their Slate EV serviced or customized wherever they’d like, as long as it’s RepairPal certified. Per the release:
DIY and open source are ingrained in Slate’s DNA. Slate believes that customers deserve the power to customize, accessorize, and repair their own vehicles, backed by the support of RepairPal’s network of highly skilled service technicians.
Slate said that RepairPal-certified technicians will be trained in accessory installation, in case you’re not a DIYer, and select shops will be trained in Slate-specific procedures, enabling them to perform high-voltage service. Slate’s chief commercial officer, Jeremy Snyder, elaborated:
Slate’s OEM partnership with RepairPal’s nationwide network of service centers will give Slate customers peace of mind, while empowering independent service shops to provide accessorization and service
Last May, a representative for Slate shared that the company had already secured over 100,000 reservations, which required a $50 refundable deposit. A source familiar with the matter wouldn’t give Electrek a concrete reservation tally, but said it is now “well over 100,000.”