Peak crude demand is fueling anger and argument in the world of oil
An off-shore oil platform off the coast in Huntington Beach, California on April 5, 2020.
Leonard Ortiz | MediaNews Group | Orange County Register | Getty Images
It’s been a war of words and numbers between two major players in the energy industry – the International Energy Agency and OPEC – as they spar over the future of something crucial to crude producers’ survival: peak oil demand.
Peak oil demand refers to the point in time when the highest level of global crude demand is reached, which will be immediately followed by a permanent decline. This would theoretically decrease the need for investments in crude oil projects and make them less economical as other energy sources take over.
For oil producing countries and companies, it’s existential.
That’s why when the chief of the IEA, an intergovernmental organization that advocates for oil consuming countries, predicted that peak oil demand would be reached by 2030 and hailed the decline of crude as a “welcome sight,” OPEC was furious.
“Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said in a Sept. 14 statement. “It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.” He accused the agency of fear-mongering and risking the destabilization of the global economy.
More broadly, the spat reflects the ongoing clash between climate change concerns and the need for energy security. That juxtaposition was on full display at ADIPEC – the annual gathering whose name stood for Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition Conference until this year, when it was quietly changed to Abu Dhabi International Progressive Energy Conference.
The United Arab Emirates will be hosting the COP28 climate summit in November and has been marketing its sustainability campaigns, all the while ramping up its crude production capacity in preparation for what it expects to be a growth in future demand. The UAE is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer.
CEOs of oil majors and state oil producers stressed the need for a dual approach, insisting their companies were part of the solution, not the problem, and that an energy transition is not possible without the security and economic support of the hydrocarbons sector.
“I don’t know if we’re going to have peak oil in 2030. But it’s very dangerous to say that we have to reduce investment because that is against the transition,” Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian multinational energy company Eni, said Monday during a panel hosted by CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
He warned that if oil investment – and therefore supply – drops and fails to meet demand, prices will surge, crippling the economy.
Descalzi acknowledged that burning fossil fuels “is producing lots of CO2,” but added “we cannot shut down everything and rely just on renewables and that is the future, no. It’s not like that. We have infrastructure, we have investment that we have to recover and we have the demand that is still there.”
The IEA wrote in its Aug. 2023 report that “world oil demand is scaling record highs” and is set to expand this year, but added that faster adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power, as well as the West’s decoupling from Russian gas, will hasten peak demand before 2030.
“Based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) … Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight,” the agency wrote in a June 2023 report.
The IEA also outlined its roadmap for Net Zero by 2050, calculating that worldwide oil demand would need to fall to 77 million barrels per day by 2030 and 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
But those figures are staggering when confronted in real-world terms: during the most intense global lockdown period of the Covid-19 pandemic, in March and April of 2020, worldwide daily oil demand was slashed by 20% – something only possible because the economy came to a near-complete standstill. The IEA’s roadmap calls for daily oil demand to be slashed by 25% in seven years’ time.
‘We all strive for the same thing’
OPEC leaders, meanwhile, point to continuing yearly increases in oil demand, particularly from major emerging markets like China and India.
But such a challenge shouldn’t distract from the immense damage to come if no action is taken, climate scientists warn. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that fossil fuel emissions must halve within the next decade if global warming is to be contained to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And according to the panel, roughly 90% of global CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels and the heavy industry.
Thus continues the tug-of-war between climate action advocates and the hydrocarbons industry, despite some calls by the latter that they should work together. Oil companies have also been accused of dialing back their climate pledges in recent months following record annual profits.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy at ADIPEC, OPEC’s al-Ghais appeared to temper his response to the IEA’s latest forecast figures.
“We respect the IEA fully, of course,” he said Monday. “What we believe in is that we cannot just replace the energy system that has existed for so many years, over a decade or even two. And that’s why we continue to emphasize the importance of investing in oil, as well as investing in renewable energy, hydrogen.”
“And the important thing is the technologies,” al-Ghais added, “because ultimately, we all strive for the same thing, which is meeting the Paris Agreement objectives” of limiting the Earth’s temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
That desire is likely to be tested at COP28 when world leaders again convene in the UAE in November to publish a joint communique on climate action.
Zevtron, ParkMobile, and Athena Partners Strategy Group are together supporting charging site owners and EV drivers affected by Shell Recharge’s shutdown of its EV charger software.
Shell Recharge is discontinuing its Shell Sky software in third-party commercial EV chargers in the US and Canada. It will service third-party commercial fleet EV chargers until April 30; after that, it’s lights out, leaving hundreds of EV charging stations across the US inoperable.
Zevtron, ParkMobile, and Athena Partners Strategy Group is deploying Zevtron’s white-label EV charging software across the former Shell Recharge network to restore full operational capacity to these chargers.
“Shell’s exit has left hundreds of chargers effectively stranded,” said Chris Mckenty, SVP of sales & marketing at Zevtron. “Our goal is to rapidly restore these stations to full functionality while enhancing their capabilities with flexible branding, seamless payment options, and improved management tools.”
ParkMobile will extend its capabilities to process EV charging sessions so users can both park and charge. “Integrating EV charging parking sessions into ParkMobile simplifies access for millions of drivers who already rely on our platform,” said Andy Harman, vice president of sales at ParkMobile.
Athena Partners Strategy Group will work closely with cities, businesses, and property owners to deploy the new solution efficiently. “We see this as a major opportunity to not only restore EV charging infrastructure but also improve it for the long term,” said Nick Stanton, managing partner of Athena Partners Strategy Group.
The partnership says it’s a “turnkey solution to ensure uninterrupted service, enhanced user experience, and improved revenue potential.”
For more information on transitioning Shell Recharge EV chargers to the Zevtron-powered network,
contact Chris Mckenty at cmckenty@zevtron.com
Read more: Shell Recharge exits the US EV charger software market
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Environment
Volkswagen ID.4 breaks into the top 5 best-selling EVs in the US after sales surged in January
The Volkswagen ID.4 was the third best-selling EV in the US last month, trailing only the Tesla Model Y and Model 3. Volkswagen’s electric SUV made a comeback after sales surged over 650% in January.
Volkswagen ID.4 was the third best-selling EV in January
Although ID.4 sales fell by 55% last year after Volkswagen halted production and deliveries in September due to a recall over faulty door handles, the EV made a triumphant return in 2025.
Volkswagen sold 4,979 ID.4’s in the US last month, up 653% from January 2024. To put it in perspective, VW only sold 646 ID.4 models in the fourth quarter and just over 17,000 in 2024. At this rate, ID.4 sales are on pace to reach nearly 60,000 by the end of 2025.
According to Cox Automotive’s latest EV Market Monitor report, the ID.4 was the third best-selling EV in the US last month, behind the Tesla Model Y and Model 3.
The Honda Prologue and Tesla Cybertruck rounded out the top five. Combined, the top five selling EV models accounted for 54% of total sales in the US last month.
| Rank | Model |
| 1. | Tesla Model Y |
| 2. | Tesla Model 3 |
| 3. | Volkswagen ID.4 |
| 4. | Tesla Cybertruck |
| 5. | Honda Prologue |
Over 102,200 electric vehicles were sold in the US in January, up nearly 30% from January 2024. Although sales were down from the record 132,392 sold in December 2024, a drop was expected over typical seasonal trends.
Tesla doesn’t provide a breakdown of US sales, so we will not know exact sales numbers until registration data is released.
Honda’s electric SUV continues to take the market by storm, with 3,744 Prologues sold in January. After delivering the first models last March, the Honda Prologue became the seventh best-selling EV in the US last year, with over 33,000 models sold.
Volkswagen announced the ID.4 was back on sale last month, with the “aim of re-instating the ID.4 to its prior position as one of the best-selling electric vehicles in the US and Canada.” It looks like it’s happening quicker than expected.
The new entry-level 2025 Volkswagen ID.4 RWD Pro model starts at $45,095, while the AWD Pro costs $48,995. Both are powered by an 82 kWh battery. Volkswagen said the 62 kWh battery will be available later this year. The larger battery provides an EPA-estimated range of up to 291 miles.
VW’s base models feature a gloss black grille, black roof rails, and a 12.9″ infotainment system with Android Auto and Apple CarPlay support. The AWD version has 20″ wheels, a heated windshield, and a tow hitch.
The ID.4 Pro S RWD starts at $50,195, and the AWD model has a sticker price of $54,095. It gets an added illuminated VW logo at the front and rear, premium LED projector headlights, a panoramic fixed glass roof, power tailgate, and more.
Volkswagen’s range-topping 2025 ID.4 Pro S Plus is only available in AWD and starts at $57,295. The Plus trim features 21-inch wheels, added exterior design elements, heated rear seats, a premium Harman Kardon audio system, and an Area View (an overhead view camera).
Both electric SUVs feature some of the biggest discounts on the market right now. To make room for 2025 models, VW is offering close-out prices on the 2024 ID.4, with leases starting as low as $189 per month. However, the Honda Prologue is hard to pass up, starting at just $209 per month. Ready to check them out for yourself? You can use our links below to find deals on the Volkswagen ID.4 and Honda Prologue in your area today.
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Rivian (RIVN) shares hit a new yearly low on Monday, dropping nearly 10%. Despite achieving its first gross profit in Q4, Rivian’s stock is taking a beating due to mixed analyst opinions. Here’s what they’re saying.
Last week, Rivian released its fourth quarter 2024 earnings, announcing a gross profit of $170 million. Although still a relatively small number, it’s a massive $776 million improvement from Q4 2023 and Rivian’s first positive gross profit.
After shutting down its manufacturing plant in Normal, IL, last April for upgrades and launching its second-generation R1 vehicles, CEO RJ Scaringe said the company is seeing “meaningful” cost reductions.
“This quarter, we achieved positive gross profit and removed $31,000 in automotive cost of goods sold per vehicle delivered in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023,” Scaringe explained last week after releasing fourth-quarter earnings.
Rivian built 49,476 vehicles last year and delivered 51,579. In 2025, the company expects slightly fewer deliveries, projecting between 46,000 and 51,000 due to external factors, including changing government policies. It also expects lower EDV deliveries for Amazon after higher output in Q4.
| Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Full-Year 2024 | 2025 guidance | |
| Deliveries | 13,588 | 13,790 | 10,018 | 14,183 | 51,579 | 46,000 – 51,000 |
| Production | 13,980 | 9,612 | 13,157 | 12,727 | 49,476 | N/A |
Some Wall St analysts are also concerned about policy changes under the Trump Administration. On Monday, Bank of America analysts downgraded Rivian stock to an Underperform rating from Neutral following its Q4 results.
The analysts also cut Rivian’s stock price target to $10 from $13, saying the 2025 delivery forecast was “softer than expected” and “there could be more downside risk if policy changes are enacted.”
Rivian stock hit with a downgrade after Q4 earnings
Bank of America warned that new competition from Lucid (LCID), GM’s Chevy, and VW’s Scout could impact sales projections over the next few years.
Meanwhile, the memo did say Rivian is still “one of the most viable” EV startups and the joint venture with Volkswagen is “complicating earnings forecasts for at least the next four years” for forecasting. Rivian finalized its EV joint venture with VW in the fourth quarter, worth up to $5.8 billion, of which Rivian will get $3.5 billion over the next few years.
Part of Rivian’s lower 2025 delivery forecast is due to plant upgrades coming at the end of the year for its more affordable R2 SUV. Starting at $45,000, the R2 will be nearly half the cost of the current R1S and R1T.
Rivian plans to begin R2 production early next year in Normal but expects output to significantly ramp up at its new EV plant in Georgia.
Despite closing on its loan agreement for the US DOE for up to $6.6 billion last month, the funding is up in the air with Trump threatening to freeze federal loans.
“Given the Trump Administration’s focus on cost-cutting, we believe there could be a risk to RIVN’s $6.6 billion Department of Energy loan closed by the Biden Administration on Jan 16,” Bank of America analysts said.
Despite the downgrade, several analysts upgraded the stock. Needham raised its price target from $14 to $17, while Wells Fargo bumped theirs up to $14 from $11 with an “Equal-Weight” rating.
Rivian’s stock was down over 8% on Monday following the downgrade. At around $11.90, however, Rivian shares are still up 11% over the past year.
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