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An off-shore oil platform off the coast in Huntington Beach, California on April 5, 2020.

Leonard Ortiz | MediaNews Group | Orange County Register | Getty Images

It’s been a war of words and numbers between two major players in the energy industry – the International Energy Agency and OPEC – as they spar over the future of something crucial to crude producers’ survival: peak oil demand.

Peak oil demand refers to the point in time when the highest level of global crude demand is reached, which will be immediately followed by a permanent decline. This would theoretically decrease the need for investments in crude oil projects and make them less economical as other energy sources take over. 

For oil producing countries and companies, it’s existential.

That’s why when the chief of the IEA, an intergovernmental organization that advocates for oil consuming countries, predicted that peak oil demand would be reached by 2030 and hailed the decline of crude as a “welcome sight,” OPEC was furious.

“Such narratives only set the global energy system up to fail spectacularly,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said in a Sept. 14 statement. “It would lead to energy chaos on a potentially unprecedented scale, with dire consequences for economies and billions of people across the world.” He accused the agency of fear-mongering and risking the destabilization of the global economy. 

More broadly, the spat reflects the ongoing clash between climate change concerns and the need for energy security. That juxtaposition was on full display at ADIPEC – the annual gathering whose name stood for Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition Conference until this year, when it was quietly changed to Abu Dhabi International Progressive Energy Conference.

ADIPEC 2023: Full interview with OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais

The United Arab Emirates will be hosting the COP28 climate summit in November and has been marketing its sustainability campaigns, all the while ramping up its crude production capacity in preparation for what it expects to be a growth in future demand. The UAE is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer. 

CEOs of oil majors and state oil producers stressed the need for a dual approach, insisting their companies were part of the solution, not the problem, and that an energy transition is not possible without the security and economic support of the hydrocarbons sector. 

“I don’t know if we’re going to have peak oil in 2030. But it’s very dangerous to say that we have to reduce investment because that is against the transition,” Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian multinational energy company Eni, said Monday during a panel hosted by CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.

He warned that if oil investment – and therefore supply – drops and fails to meet demand, prices will surge, crippling the economy. 

Descalzi acknowledged that burning fossil fuels “is producing lots of CO2,” but added “we cannot shut down everything and rely just on renewables and that is the future, no. It’s not like that. We have infrastructure, we have investment that we have to recover and we have the demand that is still there.”

Oil and gas demand is growing but you have to be 'efficient and effective,' ENI CEO says

The IEA wrote in its Aug. 2023 report that “world oil demand is scaling record highs” and is set to expand this year, but added that faster adoption of electric vehicles and renewable power, as well as the West’s decoupling from Russian gas, will hasten peak demand before 2030. 

“Based on current government policies and market trends, global oil demand will rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) … Despite this cumulative increase, annual demand growth is expected to shrivel from 2.4 mb/d this year to just 0.4 mb/d in 2028, putting a peak in demand in sight,” the agency wrote in a June 2023 report. 

The IEA also outlined its roadmap for Net Zero by 2050, calculating that worldwide oil demand would need to fall to 77 million barrels per day by 2030 and 24 million barrels per day by 2050.

But those figures are staggering when confronted in real-world terms: during the most intense global lockdown period of the Covid-19 pandemic, in March and April of 2020, worldwide daily oil demand was slashed by 20% – something only possible because the economy came to a near-complete standstill. The IEA’s roadmap calls for daily oil demand to be slashed by 25% in seven years’ time. 

‘We all strive for the same thing’

COP28 CEO says oil and gas majors need to 'step up and be part of the solution'

Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy at ADIPEC, OPEC’s al-Ghais appeared to temper his response to the IEA’s latest forecast figures.

“We respect the IEA fully, of course,” he said Monday. “What we believe in is that we cannot just replace the energy system that has existed for so many years, over a decade or even two. And that’s why we continue to emphasize the importance of investing in oil, as well as investing in renewable energy, hydrogen.”

“And the important thing is the technologies,” al-Ghais added, “because ultimately, we all strive for the same thing, which is meeting the Paris Agreement objectives” of limiting the Earth’s temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

That desire is likely to be tested at COP28 when world leaders again convene in the UAE in November to publish a joint communique on climate action.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims driverless Robotaxis coming to Austin in 3 weeks

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims driverless Robotaxis coming to Austin in 3 weeks

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company will remove “safety monitors” from the passenger seats of Tesla’s Robotaxi vehicles in “about three weeks,” which would mean we’d see completely driverless Teslas in the Austin area potentially by the end of the year – if that timeline sticks.

Tesla has been working on a system that would allow vehicles to drive themselves, which has been in “beta” release for over a decade now. It calls this system “Full Self-Driving,” despite the fact that the system does not currently drive itself.

That has not stopped Musk from consistently promising more and more of the system, despite its stagnating capabilities. Over the course of the last decade, Musk has consistently promised driverless vehicles within the coming year, with deadlines consistently passing by without achieving that goal.

One of those promises has been the creation of a driverless taxi network, which Tesla used to call “Tesla Network” and is now calling “Robotaxi.” The idea originally came with the promise that owners could use their cars to make money by running them as taxis, but that hasn’t panned out.

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Tesla did roll out its own version of a taxi network, though, in Austin, in June of this year. While it’s done a few cool things, the cars each have a “safety monitor” in the passenger seat who can take control at any time, which means the cars aren’t truly “driverless” since there is an operator, they’ve just been moved to the passenger seat.

In the time since Robotaxi’s rollout, it’s made quite a few mistakes and had a high crash rate. But Tesla also delivered one fully unoccupied vehicle from the factory to a local buyer, which was a cool (and, as yet, still unique) stunt.

Throughout the year, Musk has claimed loudly that the system would improve rapidly, stating that by the end of the year Robotaxis would be available to half of the US population (they are not) and that Tesla’s fleet would grow by more than 10x by the end of the year (it has not).

But now we have another bold prediction from Musk, stating that the safety monitors will be out of a job by the end of the year.

During a videoconference at a hackathon event for xAI, one of Musk’s other companies (which he is trying to get Tesla shareholders to bail out), Musk was asked a question about the barriers to unsupervised full self-driving. Musk answered:

Unsupervised is pretty much solved at this point. There will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them, not even anyone in the passenger seat, in about three weeks. I think it’s pretty much a solved problem, we’re just going through validation right now.

The “three weeks” timeline is familiar to longtime Tesla followers. Over the years, Musk has often promised fixes or software updates in “two weeks,” and they often take longer than that.

Three weeks is a lot closer than the “next year” promise that we’ve heard so many times for full autonomy, but given its proximity to the oft-inaccurate two-week timeline, we’re not sure these vehicles will actually be ready in time for New Year’s Eve celebrations.

Nevertheless, it’s a closer timeline than Musk has usually given, so there may be truly driverless Teslas operating sometime soon™.

Also, reading the statement more closely, it sounds like they won’t necessarily remove safety operators from every vehicle, but some vehicles. This could be similar to the singular driverless vehicle delivery that Tesla did – a PR stunt, rather than a full rollout. We’ll have to wait and see.

Tesla’s main competitor in the robotaxi space is Waymo, which has been operating truly driverless vehicles for several years now. The company has also been operating autonomous, driverless vehicles in Austin since March of this year.

Musk went on to talk about future improvements to Tesla’s software and hardware in his answer.

The company is currently on hardware previously deemed HW4, though to cash in on the AI stock market bubble, it now refers to that system as AI4. He said that AI5 will be 10-40 times better than HW4 and go into volume production in 2027, with AI6 coming soon after.

Musk’s mention of future hardware improvements neglects one important aspect of these improvements, which is that for every hardware improvement Tesla puts into its fleet, the more vehicles it will have to upgrade later.

Tesla long promised that its vehicles had all the hardware for self-driving, which means it’s going to have to upgrade a lot of cars – and there are court cases around the world seeking to force the company to do so. Together, these lawsuits and other potential challenges could mean billions of dollars in liabilities for the company.

Musk then closed his statements by claiming that “our” goal is to “to understand the meaning of life and… propagate consciousness out to the stars,” which is not Tesla’s goal. Tesla’s actual goal is to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. He may have been referring to xAI’s goal, but given the answer was about Tesla, perhaps he was confused (or perhaps he doesn’t care about Tesla anymore, and isn’t a good CEO for the company as a result…)


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Is a $10,000 discount enough to overcome your VW ID.Buzz sticker shock?

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Is a ,000 discount enough to overcome your VW ID.Buzz sticker shock?

VW’s retro-tastic minivan hasn’t been the sales success the company might have wanted, and a lot of that has to do with the van’s sky high price tag. Now, VW is asking: will a $10,000 discount be enough to create some buzz for the ID.Buzz?

Volkswagen is offering $7,500 in Retail Customer Bonus cash this month – up from the $2,500 the company offered its Black Friday customers – that, along with an additional $2,500 unadvertised dealer cash incentive that CarsDirect is reporting absolutely, definitely exists, adds up to a stout $10,000 total discount on the all-electric VW ID.Buzz … and that’s before you start haggling with your dealer over the MSRP.

It’s a lot


VW ID. Buzz trims
Photo: Volkswagen of America.

As much as I like the the Volkswagen ID.Buzz, its starting MSRP around $61,545 (incl. destination) puts it at nearly twice what you’d probably expect a minivan to cost if the last time you shopped for one was at a Dodge store. Still, that hefty price tag is some $20,000 higher than the baseline Toyota Sienna hybrid or Honda Odyssey.

That 50% higher price is a lot to swallow even if you do buy into the nostalgia. Still, the ID.Buzz is capable enough, and with ~230 miles of range and 282 hp on offer from its battery/electric motor combo – plus Supercharger access – it’s at least able to keep up with the minivan competition.

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So, while that $10,000 discount isn’t going to turn the ID.Buzz into the second coming of the affordable, family-hauling Caravan, it does bring VW’s electric people-mover a little closer to earth. In fact, with a $50K price tag, it’s right in line with the average transaction price of a new vehicles. So, if nothing else, that reduced price could finally gives electric minivan buyers something to buzz about (I tried so hard to work that in, you guys).

If you’ve been shopping for a family-hauler and dig the retro vibe over something like the (excellent) Kia EV9, click through the link below and set up a test drive at your local VW dealer.

SOURCE: CarsDirect; images via VW.


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Peterbilt takes aim at medium-duty EV market with a full line of new trucks

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Peterbilt takes aim at medium-duty EV market with a full line of new trucks

Peterbilt has jumped into the MD truck ring with the launch three new medium-duty electric trucks that deliver zero-emissions power, ultra-fast 350 kW charging, and proven, versatile platforms for delivery, utility service, and vocational upfitting.

The new Peterbilt 536EV, 537EV, and 548EV medium-duty trucks slot into the same versatile medium-duty segments the company’s fleets already know, but swap diesel power for latest PACCAR ePowertrain, with up to 605 hp and 1,850 lb-ft of torque available at 0 rpm. That big motor draws power from a variety of LFP battery packs and be fitted with ePTO options rated for either 25 kW (two-battery option) or 150 kW (three-battery option), making them suitable for that can be sized for daily delivery routes, urban utility work, and municipal fleets looking to cut both emissions and maintenance costs.

What’s more, the new Peterbilt’s flexible architecture allows for integration with existing PACCAR suspension bits to make 4×2 and 6×4 configurations, and any wheelbase of 163 inches or longer, and up to 82,000 lbs. gross combined weight ratings possible.

“[The new trucks are] optimized for the demands of the medium duty segment, the next generation of Peterbilt electric vehicles deliver excellent efficiency, rapid charging and versatile configurations elevating customer productivity across a wide range of applications,” said Erik Johnson, Peterbilt assistant general manager, Sales & Marketing.

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In addition to all those goodies, the PACCAR EV tech continues to be top-notch, with the previously-mentioned 350 kW charging, regenerative braking, and industry-leading ergonomics.

Peterbilt’s new MDEVs ship with a blue accented crown and grille for a distinctive exterior look, as well as EV-exclusive panels on the side of the hood. The interior design features laser-etched trim panels on the EV-exclusive Magneto Gray interior, just in case the driver in the quiet, smooth, and stink-free cabin forgets they’re in an electric truck.

Electrek’s Take


Peterbilt Expands Electric Vehicle Portfolio with All-New Medium Duty Models 536EV, 537EV and 548EV
Peterbilt 536EV; via PACCAR.

Ignore the headlines. The death of the commercial EV market simply hasn’t happened, and won’t happen any time soon.

If you believe the engineers and analysts at MAN Trucks and Orange EV (and, you should), an EV like this can pay for itself in reduced fuel and maintenance costs even without incentives, then you should already know what I’m about to say: the future of trucking is 100% electric.

SOURCE | IMAGES: PACCAR.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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