September 2023 was not only the hottest September on record, new data has confirmed today, but it was warmer by a margin described by stunned scientists as “extraordinary”, “huge” and “whopping”.
It keeps the world on course for its hottest year ever, expected to be 1.4C warmer than before the industrial era.
The new record is just the latest to be shattered this year, following a record hot June, July and summer overall, and record hot September in the UK.
Scientists are pointing the finger primarily at climate change, and warned of worse to come. But they also put it down to a warm weather pattern called El Nino, and natural changes in the weather.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed today that in September average surface air temperatures globally reached 16.38C.
The figure is 0.93C above the average for September during the last two decades, and a significant 0.5C warmer than the previous warmest ever September, in 2020.
The margin has astonished scientists.
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Image: Record heat in September smashed previous records by a “huge” 0.5C margin
“It’s huge,” said Professor Ed Hawkins, climate scientist at Reading University. “We shouldn’t be breaking records by this amount.”
Piers Forster – the interim chair of the government’s Climate Change Committee but speaking in his capacity as climate change professor at Leeds University – said variations between months each year are usually quite small.
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“Therefore, breaking the previous September record by a whopping 0.5C is crazy and shows something really bizarre is going on,” he said.
Dr Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said the “unprecedented temperatures” for September broke records by “an extraordinary amount”.
With two months until the next global climate talks, COP28 in Dubai in December, the “urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical”, added Dr Burgess.
The sea was hot too
Today’s findings are based on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
They confirmed that temperatures on the ocean surface had also soared in September, reaching the second highest ever, behind only August 2023.
Why was September and this summer so hot globally?
Part of the heat has come from a natural switch in the tropical east Pacific around July from a cool El Nina phase to a warm El Nino one, influencing temperatures around the world.
But while a combination of factors are at play, including natural variability from year to year, scientists believe the main cause is climate change.
Prof Forster said: “We think it’s caused by a combination of factors, principally greenhouse gas emissions being at an all time high.”
Global temperatures have warmed by around 1.1C since the pre-industrial era due to human activity, according to UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“What we’re seeing this year is there is a bump on top of that,” said Prof Hawkins, which could be “due to other factors such as El Nino or other weather patterns”.
“But the largest component by far is the fact that we have added so much greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.”
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UK climate deaths since 1990
Prof Hawkins said month after month of record heat was not necessarily a sign the climate crisis was accelerating, but a taste of the future under continued global warming.
Extreme weather events this summer – like fires in the Mediterranean, floods in New York or heatwaves in the UK – will become “more frequent and sadly become normal”, he added.
He said climate change is exacerbating flooding because warmer air can hold more water, meaning rainfall is heavier.
It also makes naturally occurring heatwaves even hotter, and it fuels the hot and dry conditions that allow wildfires to spread rapidly, even if the fires were sparked by something unrelated, he added.
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Romania has said a drone breached its airspace during a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine.
Fighter jets were scrambled on Saturday, coming close to taking down the aircraft as it was flying very low before it left national airspace toward Ukraine, defence minister Ionut Mosteanu said.
Romania is the latest NATO member state to report an incursion, with Poland deploying aircraft and closing an airport in the eastern city of Lublin on Saturday, three days after it shot down Russian drones in its airspace.
They are the first known shots fired by a member of the Western alliance during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Russian drones enter Polish airspace: What we know
Meanwhile, military exercises are taking place over the Barents Sea, with Russia and Belarus conducting joint drills.
Russian MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with hypersonic ballistic missiles completed a four-hour flight over the neutral waters as part of ongoing “Zapad 2025” military exercises, the Interfax news agency reported on Saturday.
Romania has had Russian drone fragments fall on to its territory repeatedly since Russia began waging its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
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Two F-16 fighter jets were initially scrambled by Romania, and later two Eurofighters.
Citizens in the southeastern county of Tulcea near the Danube and its Ukrainian border were warned to take cover, the defence ministry said.
The ministry said the drone dropped off their radar 20km (12 miles) southwest of the village of Chilia Veche.
While helicopters were surveying the area looking for possible drone parts, Mr Mosteanu told private television station Antena 3 that “all information at this moment indicates the drone exited airspace to Ukraine”.
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Russia getting ‘ready for war with NATO’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media that data showed the drone breached about 10km (six miles) into Romanian territory and operated in NATO airspace for around 50 minutes.
He said Belarusian airspace was also used for entry into Ukraine’s airspace.
Mr Zelenskyy described the reported incursion as “an obvious expansion of the war by Russia,” and called for “tariffs against Russian trade” and a “collective defence”.
He warned: “Do not wait for dozens of “shaheds” [Iranian-designed drones] and ballistic missiles before finally making decisions.”
NATO has said it plans to strengthen eastern flank defence, following earlier Polish airspace violations.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio called the Polish incursion “unacceptable and unfortunate and dangerous”, and said while it was unclear if the drones were intentionally sent to Poland, if it was the case, it would be “a highly escalatory move”.
Image: Donald Trump boarding Air Force One on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
On Saturday, Donald Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he was “ready to do major sanctions on Russia”, but only when all NATO nations “do the same thing” and “stop buying oil from Russia”.
Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened sanctions against Moscow, so far without any action.
The president also said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.
NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.
The war in Ukraine would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia, Donald Trump has said.
The US president, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said the alliance’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”.
Doing so “greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power, over Russia,” he said.
NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.
A NATO ban on the practice plus tariffs on China would “also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR”, he added.
The president said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.
‘China’s grip’ on Russia
“China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia,” Mr Trump posted, and powerful tariffs “will break that grip”.
The US president has already placed a 25% import tax on goods from India over its buying of Russian energy products.
He did not include in that list Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion.
Image: President Donald Trump at a New York Yankees baseball game on Thursday. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Village changes hands
On the battlefield on Saturday, Russian troops took control of the village of Novomykolaivka in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said.
A drone attack hit an oil refinery in the city of Ufa, around 870 miles (1,400km) from the border with Ukraine, the local governor said, calling it a terrorist incident.
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Drones shot down in Poland
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday the 32-nation alliance would place military equipment on the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression.
Operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ followed Wednesday’s provocative incursion by multiple Russian drones into the airspace of Poland, another NATO member.
Polish forces shot down the drones, which Moscow said went astray because they were jammed.
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Prince Harry’s surprise visit to Ukraine
Prince Harry’s surprise visit
The Duke of Sussex made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Friday, promising to do “everything possible” to help the recovery of injured military staff.
Travelling on an overnight train to Kyiv, Prince Harry, who has since left the country, told The Guardian: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.
“We have to keep it [the war] in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”
Aid workers say the number of people leaving has spiked in recent weeks, but many families remain stuck due to difficulties with transportation and housing.
Others have been displaced many times and do not want to move again, not trusting that anywhere in the Strip is safe.
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Earlier this month: IDF drops evacuation flyers on Gaza before tower bombed
In a message shared on social media on Saturday, Israel’s army told the remaining Palestinians in Gaza City to “leave immediately” and move south into what it is calling a humanitarian zone.
Sites in southern Gaza, where Israel is telling people to go, are overcrowded, the United Nations has said.
A spokesperson for the Israeli army said more than 250,000 people have left Gaza City – but the UN puts the number at around 100,000 between mid-August and mid-September.
The UN and aid groups have warned that displacing hundreds of thousands of people will exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said on Saturday that seven people, including children, died from malnutrition-related causes over the past 24 hours.
Israel has said it now controls 75% of Gaza, much of which has been reduced to fields of rubble. It has vowed to take the rest.
The current conflict followed Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people and took around 250 people hostage.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 64,803 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.