Week 6 preview: Unlikely unbeatens, marquee QB battles and quotes of the week
If you were asked in August to pick five teams that would be undefeated at this point, you’d probably be quick to name the traditional powerhouses: Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Alabama. And you’d be wrong on Alabama. But you get the point.
Who in the world thought Louisville, Maryland, Kentucky, Missouri and Washington State all would be unbeaten now? Sure, maybe one or two because of the early-season schedule. But not all the wins were expected — who thought Kentucky would wallop Florida?
Those teams put their perfect records on the line in Week 6, which features the biggest battle of 5-0 teams with No. 12 Oklahoma facing No. 3 Texas in Saturday’s Red River Rivalry.
Our reporters preview Week 6 with a look at the surprising undefeated teams and quarterback matchups to watch, plus some of the week’s best quotes.
Surprise! Look who’s still undefeated
Louisville: When Louisville hired native son Jeff Brohm, you could feel the excitement build not only among the fan base but among the football program. He then overhauled the roster and brought in several key transfers who have paid off in big ways, starting with quarterback Jack Plummer, who played for him at Purdue. Plummer ranks No. 3 in the ACC in passing, no surprise considering Brohm’s background and history, and transfer Jamari Thrash ranks No. 2 in the league in receiving. Perhaps the biggest revelation has been the Cardinals’ rushing offense behind Jawhar Jordan, who leads the league with 510 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, transfers Devin Neal (Baylor) and Cam’Ron Kelly (UNC), tied for second on the team with 24 tackles, have been big additions, too. But returner Ashton Gillotte has taken the next step with five sacks.
Brohm described his team’s 13-10 win over NC State last week as his defense’s best performance of the season. But it will take a complete team effort to beat Notre Dame and end the Irish’s 30-game regular-season winning streak against the ACC.
“We’ve done just enough to win five games,” Brohm told ESPN. “And we’ve shown some toughness and some grit to come back and win a few, so that’s been really good to see, our guys play that hard. To this point, everything’s been good. I know as a coach that our schedule will just continue to get tougher and tougher, and we’re going to have challenges ahead, starting this week.” — Andrea Adelson
Maryland: Winners of its first five games in a season for the first time since Ralph Friedgen coached the program to the ACC title in 2001, Maryland heads into a major spotlight Saturday when it visits the Horseshoe to tangle with No. 4 Ohio State. Taulia Tagovailoa spearheads a Terrapins offense that leads the Big Ten in total offense (454.8 YPG) while sitting behind only Penn State in scoring offense (38.6 PPG). Tagovailoa, who tops the conference with both 1,464 passing yards and 13 touchdown passes, has three games of at least three touchdown tosses, led by last week’s 352-yard, five-touchdown effort in a 44-17 dispatching of Indiana. Led by Jeshaun Jones‘ 19 receptions, six receivers have caught at least 11 passes and eight players have found the end zone, as Tagovailoa has done a stellar job of spreading the wealth and not letting opposing defenses key on one player. Defensively, Brian Williams’ unit has forced 10 turnovers combined over the past three weeks in convincing victories over Virginia, Michigan State and Indiana. It faces its stiffest challenge yet with a Buckeyes offense itching to sustain momentum from their win in South Bend on Sept. 23. — Blake Baumgartner
Kentucky: The schedule has been more than manageable, and even the most blue-hearted Kentucky fan would acknowledge as much. Three of the Wildcats’ wins have come over teams (Ball State, Akron and Vanderbilt) with a combined 4-12 record, and a fourth win came over FCS foe Eastern Kentucky. That’s not to diminish the fact the Wildcats are doing the things it takes to win at a high level, in particular running the ball, stopping the run, eliminating explosive plays and forcing turnovers. They’re averaging 6.48 yards per rush (second nationally) and limiting opponents to 2.54 yards per rush (eighth nationally). Ray Davis, a transfer from Vanderbilt, rushed for 280 yards last week in the 33-14 win over Florida, the most rushing yards by an FBS player this season. Kentucky dominated the line of scrimmage, as quarterback Devin Leary attempted just 19 passes, completing nine for 69 yards. He’s a better passer than he’s shown to this point and will have to make more plays down the field in the passing game if the Wildcats are going to keep it going, and that starts Saturday against No. 1 Georgia. Leary’s top two receiving targets, Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown, left the Florida game in the second half with injuries. Their status is up in the air. Some younger receivers may need to step up, but the Wildcats are going to need more out of their passing game as they tackle an October stretch that includes Georgia on the road and then Missouri and Tennessee at home. — Chris Low
Missouri: The short version for why Mizzou is 5-0 is simple: Brady Cook to Luther Burden III. But here’s the longer version. The Tigers began the season with wins over South Dakota and MTSU, but the offense disappointed terribly in the process. The Tigers averaged 4.9 yards per play against MTSU, worse than Murray State (5.7) and everyone else on the Blue Raiders’ schedule, and a couple of fourth-and-short punts both revealed Eliah Drinkwitz’s general lack of confidence and nearly proved costly in the 23-19 win. But the frustration emanating from that evidently lit a fire. The Tigers scored at least 30 points in wins over Kansas State, Memphis and Vanderbilt — all teams better than MTSU — in recent weeks. And Cook has been one of the best QBs in the country in the process, averaging 364 passing yards per game with eight TDs. He’s set an SEC record for consecutive passes without an interception, and he’s thriving both because of Burden, the nation’s leading receiver, and because other targets like Theo Wease (118 yards vs. Vanderbilt) have begun to thrive. The Tigers’ defense is still a top-30 or so unit, and suddenly the offense is dynamite. And now they return home to host an LSU team that is equal parts dangerous and flawed. — Bill Connelly
Washington State: With half the Pac-12 ranked in the top 18 of the AP poll, the Cougars remain under the radar despite climbing from unranked to No. 13. Yet, when laying out the best wins by Pac-12 teams, it’s the Cougars — Wisconsin, Oregon State — who stand out. Both of those win margins were by single digits, but WSU controlled both games and has impressed on both sides of the ball. There is a lot of credit to spread around, but it begins with quarterback Cam Ward. In new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s offense, Ward has made significant strides to become one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He’s accurate, he makes good decisions, and he’s playing with a general sense of calm that evaded him at times last year. Plus, the additions of Josh Kelly and Kyle Williams at receiver have given him a deep, talent group of receivers, joining Lincoln Victor. This is a team without a major problem area, which makes it a tough out each week. — Kyle Bonagura
QB battles: Who has the better day?
Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) vs. Jack Plummer (Louisville)
It might be easy to pick Plummer based on what happened last season alone. Hartman, playing for Wake Forest, had the worst game of his career at Louisville — throwing three interceptions, losing three fumbles and taking seven sacks in a 48-21 loss. He was benched to start the fourth quarter in a game Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson called a “disaster.” But Hartman is in a different spot now with the Irish — and a different offense that is not asking him to put as much on his shoulders as he did at Wake. His late-game heroics last week against Duke led Notre Dame to a 21-14 comeback victory. Meanwhile, Plummer faced all sorts of pressure from the NC State defense a week ago and did not play his best game, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times. Expect Notre Dame to bring the same type of pressure as NC State did, and Hartman to have a much better performance than a year ago. — Adelson
Quinn Ewers (Texas) vs. Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma)
Gabriel notably missed this game last year due to a concussion, leading to disaster for Oklahoma. Five different players attempted a pass, including two running backs and a punter, as the Sooners managed just 39 passing yards in a historic 49-0 blowout loss, the worst in any game in school history. But this season, he’s leading the Big 12 in QBR, with Ewers second. Gabriel is third nationally with eight completions of 40 or more yards, while Ewers has been inconsistent on deep balls, though he’s improved in that area. Both defenses have taken huge steps this season, but Gabriel has been more consistent and will be asked to do more. In what could end up as another Texas-OU shootout, Gabriel likely will have the better numbers. — Dave Wilson
Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland) vs. Kyle McCord (Ohio State)
McCord finished the Notre Dame game on an encouraging note, but Tagovailoa had five touchdown passes last week and eight in his first two Big Ten games. Maryland’s receiving corps doesn’t generate the attention Ohio State’s does, but there’s real depth with Tai Felton and West Virginia transfer Kaden Prather emerging alongside Jeshaun Jones. “Very similar to when I was at Alabama, I had [Henry] Ruggs and [Jerry] Jeudy] and [Jaylen] Waddle and Smitty [DeVonta Smith],” Terrapins coach Mike Locksley told me. “Your offense is more dynamic when the ball is spread around.” — Adam Rittenberg
Devin Leary (Kentucky) vs. Carson Beck (Georgia)
Leary, who passed for 6,807 yards during his career at NC State, is due for a breakout game. He’s thrown 10 touchdown passes and five interceptions in his first five outings for Kentucky, which really hasn’t needed to throw the ball much. The Wildcats could be short-handed at receiver with Tayvion Robinson and Barion Brown both being banged up, and that won’t help matters against a Georgia defense that has already intercepted eight passes and is tied for third nationally in allowing just 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Carson Beck, in his first season as Georgia’s starter, is completing 72 percent of his passes and averaging right at 300 passing yards per game. The Bulldogs got star tight end Brock Bowers going in the win over Auburn last week, and that’s a connection that gives Beck (and any quarterback) the edge. — Low
Notable quotes
Billy Napier: The Florida coach was blunt when it came to assessing his team’s 33-14 drubbing by Kentucky.
“There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Deion Sanders: There’s no question that celebrity has surrounded the Buffaloes, and the coach was more than happy to help Snoop Dogg deliver a message to Omarion Miller, who caught seven passes for 196 yards in Colorado’s Week 5 loss to USC.
“A dear friend called me and summoned me to get him on the phone to FaceTime. [He] wanted to talk to him and wanted to let him know that he has a tremendous gift. I don’t know what the conversation was, but I know I just handed him the phone. I said, ‘Somebody wants to talk to you.’ He looked at the phone like, ‘Oh my god.’ Yeah, it was Snoop. Snoop wanted to talk to [Miller]. He wanted to challenge him.”
Dave Clawson: The Wake Forest coach, whose team plays at Clemson on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network), hasn’t forgotten last year’s 2OT loss to the Tigers.
“There are certain games in your career you never, ever get over. That’s one of them. When I’m on my deathbed, that game will still bother me. Hopefully, our players feel the same way.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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