Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: Labour wins Westminster seat replacing Margaret Ferrier
Scottish Labour has won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
Michael Shanks replaces shamed MP Margaret Ferrier, who was ousted from her seat in August following a successful recall petition for breaching COVID restrictions during lockdown in 2020.
Voters took to the polls between 7am and 10pm on Thursday and out of the 82,104 electorate, a total of 30,531 votes were cast (37.19% turnout).
The turnout is down from 66.48% at the snap 2019 general election, when 53,794 valid votes were cast.
Mr Shanks defeated the SNP’s Katy Loudon by 17,845 votes to 8,399 – a majority of 9,446 and a 20.36% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour.
Speaking to Sky News after his win, Mr Shanks said: “There’s absolutely no doubt that this result shows that there’s no part of the United Kingdom that Labour can’t win.
“It’s been a long time in Scotland – Labour building back to a place where people can trust us again.
“The leadership of Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar has got us to a place where people have put their trust in us.
“I’m incredibly honoured by the trust people have put in me in this by-election.
“But it shows fundamentally that people are fed up with the division of the SNP and want to vote for something else. And it’s clear from this by-election people are willing to do that.”
Michael Shanks during the count
Anas Sarwar and Michael Shanks celebrating Scottish Labour’s win
Ms Ferrier, who won the seat for the SNP in 2019, was forced to sit as an independent after losing the party whip when her COVID breach came to light.
Fourteen candidates battled it out for the hotly contested seat.
The Scottish Conservatives backed Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr, student Cameron Eadie stood for the Scottish Greens, while data analyst Gloria Adebo ran for the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
All eyes were on the SNP and Scottish Labour – with both parties treating the by-election as an important battleground ahead of the next UK general election.
During the campaign, Labour stated a win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West could help springboard the party to Number 10.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party is now hopeful that Scottish Labour will make gains against the SNP at the next general election, which could potentially pave the way for Labour’s return to power at Westminster.
Sir Keir Starmer joined Michael Shanks on the campaign trail
Following the result, Sir Keir said: “This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it.
“I have always said that winning back the trust of people in Scotland is essential.”
Sir Keir said the victory was the culmination of “three and a half years of hard work”.
He added: “I am grateful to everyone who has put their faith in us today – we will work every day to repay it.
“Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.
“They want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting.
“The country deserves a government firmly on their side and focused on their priorities – and Labour will deliver that for them.”
SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf joined Katy Loudon on the campaign trail
Responding to the loss, SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf said it was a “disappointing night” for his party.
He added: “I want to thank our exceptional candidate Katy Loudon and our activists for their incredible efforts.
“Let me also congratulate Michael Shanks on being elected. Circumstances of this by-election were always very difficult for us.
“Collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour, also a significant factor.
“We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back.
“However, we will reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West.”
Full results:
The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result
• Gloria Adebo (Scottish Liberal Democrats) – 895 votes
• Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) – 271 votes
• Garry Cooke (Independent) – 6 votes
• Andrew Daly (Independent) – 81 votes
• Cameron Eadie (Scottish Green Party) – 601 votes
• Prince Ankit Love (Independent) – 34 votes
• Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) – 319 votes
• Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) – 46 votes
• Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives) – 1,192 votes
• Katy Loudon (SNP) – 8,399 votes
• Christopher Sermanni (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) – 178 votes
• Michael Shanks (Scottish Labour Party) – 17,845 votes
• David Stark (Reform UK) – 403 votes
• Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) – 207 votes
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Are Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules quite as iron clad as she insists?
How tough is her armour really? And is there actually scope for some change, some loosening to avoid big tax hikes in the autumn?
We’ve had a bit of clarity early this morning – and that’s a question we discuss on the Politics at Sam and Anne’s podcast today.
Politics Live: Reeves to reform financial regulations
And tens of billions of pounds of borrowing depends on the answer – which still feels intriguingly opaque.
You might think you know what the fiscal rules are. And you might think you know they’re not negotiable.
For instance, the main fiscal rule says that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to be in surplus – i.e. rely on taxation alone, not borrowing.
And Rachel Reeves has been clear – that’s not going to change, and there’s no disputing this.
But when the government announced its fiscal rules in October, it actually published a 19-page document – a “charter” – alongside this.
And this contains all sorts of notes and caveats. And it’s slightly unclear which are subject to the “iron clad” promise – and which aren’t.
There’s one part of that document coming into focus – with sources telling me that it could get changed.
And it’s this – a little-known buffer built into the rules.
It’s outlined in paragraph 3.6 on page four of the Charter for Budget Responsibility.
This says that from spring 2027, if the OBR forecasts that she still actually has a deficit of up to 0.5% of GDP in three years, she will still be judged to be within the rules.
In other words, if in spring 2027 she’s judged to have missed her fiscal rules by perhaps as much as £15bn, that’s fine.
A change could save the chancellor some headaches. Pic: PA
Now there’s a caveat – this exemption only applies, providing at the following budget the chancellor reduces that deficit back to zero.
But still, it’s potentially helpful wiggle room.
This help – this buffer – for Reeves doesn’t apply today, or for the next couple of years – it only kicks in from the spring of 2027.
But I’m being told by a source that some of this might change and the ability to use this wiggle room could be brought forward to this year. Could she give herself a get out of jail card?
The chancellor could gamble that few people would notice this technical change, and it might avoid politically catastrophic tax hikes – but only if the markets accept it will mean higher borrowing than planned.
But the question is – has Rachel Reeves ruled this out by saying her fiscal rules are iron clad or not?
Or to put it another way… is the whole of the 19-page Charter for Budget Responsibility “iron clad” and untouchable, or just the rules themselves?
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Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?
And what counts as “rules” and are therefore untouchable, and what could fall outside and could still be changed?
I’ve been pressing the Treasury for a statement.
And this morning, they issued one.
A spokesman said: “The fiscal rules as set out in the Charter for Budget Responsibility are iron clad, and non-negotiable, as are the definition of the rules set out in the document itself.”
So that sounds clear – but what is a definition of the rule? Does it include this 0.5% of GDP buffer zone?
Read more:
Reeves hints at tax rises in autumn
Tough decisions ahead for chancellor
The Treasury does concede that not everything in the charter is untouchable – including the role and remit of the OBR, and the requirements for it to publish a specific list of fiscal metrics.
But does that include that key bit? Which bits can Reeves still tinker with?
I’m still unsure that change has been ruled out.
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