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Labour sources at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West count were either playing a game with us about the scale of their party’s victory or were genuinely surprised.

Early on at the count, they said they thought the swing from the SNP to Labour would be 7% to 8%, suggesting a gain of 15 to 22 seats in Scotland in a general election.

They said a 10% swing, which they claimed they didn’t expect, would suggest Labour gains of 24 seats. Later, they admitted the Labour lead was nudging up towards 10%.

But when the result was declared at around 1.30am, Labour’s majority wasn’t far short of 10,000 and the swing was a massive 20%.

In the trade – the rough old trade of politics – it’s known as expectation management. But I’m prepared to be charitable and suggest that not even the most optimistic Labour official was expecting a 20% swing.

It’s all hypothetical, of course, but the great Michael Thrasher – “the Prof” – suggests that if you take the votes cast for each party in this by-election and apply them to a general election Labour would have 42 seats in Scotland.

Michael Thrasher: SNP loses Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat in ‘spectacular fashion’

Fanciful? Possibly. That would take Labour back to the level it was at in 2010, when under the “great clunking fist”, Gordon Brown, it had 41 MPs in Scotland.

In 2015, when under Nicola Sturgeon the SNP won 56 of Scotland’s seats, Labour held just one, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. After winning seven in 2017, Labour slumped to one again, the resilient Mr Murray, in 2019.

Does this by-election mean Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win a clear working majority next year. Not necessarily. It’s only a by-election and Labour has been through enough false dawns to fall for that. In 1992, for example.

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Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with candidate Michael Shanks after Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, at South Lanarkshire Council Headquarters in Hamilton. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023.
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Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with Mr Shanks after their victory

No wonder Labour sources at the Rutherglen count were being extremely cautious, managing expectations or were indeed genuinely surprised.

Labour is on the way back, though. In its tartan fightback, this is an excellent start. Potentially, this by-election could be a defining moment in the battle to win the next election and put Sir Keir on the road to Downing Street.

It coincided with a YouGov poll showing Labour’s lead over the Conservatives back up to a hefty 21 points. So much for a conference bounce, prime minister.

The SNP weren’t the only losers in this by-election. If Labour is on the way back and on course to win big numbers of seats in Scotland, the biggest losers after Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.

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Liz Truss calls for Trump-style ‘revolution’ in the UK after blaming Bank of England for her downfall

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Liz Truss calls for Trump-style 'revolution' in the UK after blaming Bank of England for her downfall

Liz Truss has defended her record as prime minister and called for “institutional change” in Britain in the same way she claims Donald Trump delivered “revolution in the US”.

The former Conservative leader has spoken to Sky’s Wilfred Frost on his The Master Investor Podcast nearly three years after she resigned as prime minister – 44 days after taking over from Boris Johnson.

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Her downfall began when she and her then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unleashed £45bn of unfunded tax cuts on the markets in a mini-budget which sparked weeks of economic turmoil in 2022.

However, Ms Truss has now told Frost the fault for what happened during her premiership lay with the Bank of England (BoE) as she “wasn’t captain of the ship”.

She said: “The last time I looked, it’s the prime minister who is the democratically accountable person that runs the country, not the Bank of England… The Bank of England’s role is to work with the government to ensure financial stability, and they weren’t doing that. They were pursuing their own agenda.”

Ms Truss, the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister in history, added: “The fact is I wasn’t captain of the ship because I wasn’t running monetary policy. The Bank of England were running monetary policy. I’m very happy to take responsibility for things, provided I have the full ability to actually control them. I didn’t have the ability to control them.”

The former prime minister also accused the BoE and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) of briefing against her after the mini-budget.

She added: “My mistake, if you want to put it like that was underestimating the sheer malevolence of the economic blob in Britain.”

Liz Truss speaking in Washington in 2022. Pic: AP
Image:
Liz Truss speaking in Washington in 2022. Pic: AP

‘We’ve lost our way’

Ms Truss also said there is “economic stagnation” and poor public services in the UK and this is at least party due to the “failures” of the BoE and the OBR as “institutions”.

She continued: “There’s no doubt we’ve lost our way. But I think what is happening now in Britain is the people are now realising how bad the situation is. And I think there is going be massive pressure… for institutional change in this country, and that is what we need, in a similar way to Trump delivering the revolution in the US.

“That is what we need. And I think that will happen.”

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Ms Truss later said she believes the UK is heading for “calamity” under Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and claimed the economy is in a worse state now than when she was in office.

She said she sees Sir Keir and Chancellor Rachel Reeves as part of the “economic orthodoxy” and added: “That has ruined this country, and we are heading for a calamity because of that.”

Ms Truss also said she doesn’t expect the Conservatives to win the next election and this will be partly due to a failure to take on the “leftist establishment”.

“So I don’t think (Tory leader Kemi Badenoch) is going to be prime minister at this stage,” she added.

Asked by Frost whether she will ever return to frontline politics, Ms Truss said: “I never rule anything out… what I’ve always been obsessed with is I want Britain to be a great nation again, and I’m depressed about how far we’ve sunk. The dire state of our economy is in the deindustrialisation. The fact that we don’t make things the same way we used to.”

The full conversation also includes an extensive debate about the mini-budget. Liz Truss was speaking on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost, available to watch here and listen here.

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US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

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US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

US regulators clarify rules for spot crypto trading

In a joint statement, the SEC and CFTC said existing law does not block regulated exchanges from listing spot crypto products.

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New Green leader reveals he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn – and doesn’t rule out pact

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New Green leader reveals he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn - and doesn't rule out pact

The new leader of the Green Party has revealed he spoke to Jeremy Corbyn this week amid suggestions there could be a pact between their two parties. 

Zack Polanski, who comfortably beat his rivals Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns to win the Green Party’s leadership election, told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge that he spoke to the former Labour leader on Monday.

There have been suggestions that the Greens could join forces with Mr Corbyn’s new party – which does not yet have a formal name – to avoid splitting the vote on the left.

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Polanski on Corbyn, NATO and flags

The question of a future potential pact with Mr Corbyn and his co-leader, the independent MP Zarah Sultana, became an issue in the Green Party’s leadership election, with Mr Polanski more keen on the idea than his co-leadership rivals.

Mr Polanski, who secured 20,411 votes – comfortably beating the 3,705 votes cast for the joint leadership bid of Mr Ramsay and Dr Chowns – praised Mr Corbyn for holding his own inquiry into the government’s conduct in Gaza, which will begin later this week.

The former Labour leader had tabled a private members’ bill calling for an independent public inquiry into the UK’s involvement in Israeli military operations in Gaza, but it did not progress in the House of Commons.

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Speaking to the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge, Mr Polanski said: “I spoke to him [Mr Corbyn] briefly yesterday.”

He said Mr Corbyn’s inquiry was “the exact kind of example where even if someone is from a different party, but I’m absolutely aligned with what they’re doing, then I’ll always call out what I think is good for this country and good for our global politics”.

My Corbyn congratulated Mr Polanski for his “stunning victory” after the results were announced, and added: “Your campaign took on the rich and powerful, stood up for the dignity of all marginalised communities, and gave people hope! Real change is coming. I look forward to working with you to create a fairer, kinder world.”

Mr Polanski, who is currently serving as deputy leader, won the election on a platform of “eco-populism”, which he says will make the Greens a real alternative to Labour and Reform UK.

The London Assembly member, who is not an MP, will now become the party’s only leader, after Bristol MP Carla Denyer stepped down from her joint role with Mr Ramsay, triggering the contest.

While Mr Polanski has strongly criticised the policies of Nigel Farage, he has acknowledged his cut-through with voters, and has argued that the Green Party needs to offer a bolder message to voters, in the guise of wealth taxes and net zero policies.

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In full: Tuesday’s Politics Hub

The new Green leader also weighed into the debate about flying the St George’s Cross, after the prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said he had one in his office – while also cautioning against the flag being used as a political statement.

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Asked what he thought of the St George’s Cross, Mr Polanski said: “I think that migration is at the heart of this country. Migrants contribute a huge amount. That’s not a new thing – that has been traditionally throughout our history and that the English flag means different things to different people.

“And I think if people want to wave it because they’re being patriotic, particularly at football tournaments, I think there’s a huge space for patriotism in this country.

“But I’m also aware that for lots of people who have arrived in this country or people who aren’t even migrants, to be frank, Black and Asian communities, the flag can mean very different things around colonialism and empire. And that’s the thing about flags. It means different things to different people.”

Zack Polanski. Pic: PA
Image:
Zack Polanski. Pic: PA

He said he believed the idea of flying the English flag outside homes not in the context of sport was “quite imported from America”.

“If people want to do that then I think that’s up to people what they want to do.

“But I think at times of heightened tensions, I would say patriotism is actually about loving your neighbour, whether they’re from this country or not.”

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