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Labour sources at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West count were either playing a game with us about the scale of their party’s victory or were genuinely surprised.

Early on at the count, they said they thought the swing from the SNP to Labour would be 7% to 8%, suggesting a gain of 15 to 22 seats in Scotland in a general election.

They said a 10% swing, which they claimed they didn’t expect, would suggest Labour gains of 24 seats. Later, they admitted the Labour lead was nudging up towards 10%.

But when the result was declared at around 1.30am, Labour’s majority wasn’t far short of 10,000 and the swing was a massive 20%.

In the trade – the rough old trade of politics – it’s known as expectation management. But I’m prepared to be charitable and suggest that not even the most optimistic Labour official was expecting a 20% swing.

It’s all hypothetical, of course, but the great Michael Thrasher – “the Prof” – suggests that if you take the votes cast for each party in this by-election and apply them to a general election Labour would have 42 seats in Scotland.

Michael Thrasher: SNP loses Rutherglen and Hamilton West seat in ‘spectacular fashion’

Fanciful? Possibly. That would take Labour back to the level it was at in 2010, when under the “great clunking fist”, Gordon Brown, it had 41 MPs in Scotland.

In 2015, when under Nicola Sturgeon the SNP won 56 of Scotland’s seats, Labour held just one, Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. After winning seven in 2017, Labour slumped to one again, the resilient Mr Murray, in 2019.

Does this by-election mean Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win a clear working majority next year. Not necessarily. It’s only a by-election and Labour has been through enough false dawns to fall for that. In 1992, for example.

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Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with candidate Michael Shanks after Labour won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, at South Lanarkshire Council Headquarters in Hamilton. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023.
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Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) with Mr Shanks after their victory

No wonder Labour sources at the Rutherglen count were being extremely cautious, managing expectations or were indeed genuinely surprised.

Labour is on the way back, though. In its tartan fightback, this is an excellent start. Potentially, this by-election could be a defining moment in the battle to win the next election and put Sir Keir on the road to Downing Street.

It coincided with a YouGov poll showing Labour’s lead over the Conservatives back up to a hefty 21 points. So much for a conference bounce, prime minister.

The SNP weren’t the only losers in this by-election. If Labour is on the way back and on course to win big numbers of seats in Scotland, the biggest losers after Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives.

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Why Boris’s best mate is off to Reform

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Why Boris's best mate is off to Reform

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈       

Former Conservative chairman and friend of Boris Johnson – Sir Jake Berry – is defecting to Reform UK, causing more problems for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

On today’s episode, Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy discuss if his defection will divide parts of Reform policy.

Elsewhere, the Anglo-French summit gets under way, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hoping to announce a migration deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to deter small boat crossings.

Plus, chatter around Whitehall that No10 are considering a pre-summer reshuffle, but will it have any value?

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

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Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

Australia to test CBDCs, stablecoins in next stage of crypto play

The trial is part of Project Acacia, an initiative from the RBA exploring how digital money and tokenization could support financial markets in Australia.

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Starmer and Macron agree need for ‘new deterrent’ to stop small boat crossings

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Starmer and Macron agree need for 'new deterrent' to stop small boat crossings

Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron have agreed the need for a “new deterrent” to deter small boats crossings in the Channel, Downing Street has said.

The prime minister met Mr Macron this afternoon as part of the French president’s state visit to the UK, which began on Tuesday.

High up the agenda for the two leaders is the need to tackle small boat crossings in the Channel, which Mr Macron said yesterday was a “burden” for both the UK and France.

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The small boats crisis is a pressing issue for the prime minister, given that more than 20,000 migrants crossed the English Channel to the UK in the first six months of this year – a rise of almost 50% on the number crossing in 2024.

Sir Keir is hoping he can reach a deal for a one-in one-out return treaty with France, ahead of the UK-France summit on Thursday, which will involve ministerial teams from both nations.

The deal would see those crossing the Channel illegally sent back to France in exchange for Britain taking in any asylum seeker with a family connection in the UK.

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However, it is understood the deal is still in the balance, with some EU countries unhappy about France and the UK agreeing on a bilateral deal.

French newspaper Le Monde reports that up to 50 small boat migrants could be sent back to France each week, starting from August, as part of an agreement between Sir Keir and Mr Macron.

A statement from Downing Street said: “The prime minister met the French President Emmanuel Macron in Downing Street this afternoon.

“They reflected on the state visit of the president so far, agreeing that it had been an important representation of the deep ties between our two countries.

“Moving on to discuss joint working, they shared their desire to deepen our partnership further – from joint leadership in support of Ukraine to strengthening our defence collaboration and increasing bilateral trade and investment.”

It added: “The leaders agreed tackling the threat of irregular migration and small boat crossings is a shared priority that requires shared solutions.

“The prime minister spoke of his government’s toughening of the system in the past year to ensure rules are respected and enforced, including a massive surge in illegal working arrests to end the false promise of jobs that are used to sell spaces on boats.

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“The two leaders agreed on the need to go further and make progress on new and innovative solutions, including a new deterrent to break the business model of these gangs.”

Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, seized on the statement to criticise Labour for scrapping the Conservatives’ Rwanda plan, which the Tories claim would have sent asylum seekers “entering the UK illegally” to Rwanda.

He said in an online post: “We had a deterrent ready to go, where every single illegal immigrant arriving over the Channel would be sent to Rwanda.

“But Starmer cancelled this before it had a chance to start.

“Now, a year later, he’s realised he made a massive mistake. That’s why numbers have surged and this year so far has been the worst in history for illegal channel crossings.

“Starmer is weak and incompetent and he’s lost control of our borders.”

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