Untold stories of the Air Raid revolution, from pregame hot dogs to Phil Collins photo ops
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Dave Wilson, ESPN Staff Writer
Long before the world knew Mike Leach or Dana Holgorsen or any of the other oddballs, eccentrics and revolutionaries of the Air Raid fraternity, Hal Mumme was a high school coach in Copperas Cove, Texas, with a problem.
It was 1986, the NBA and a young superstar had captured the attention of the school’s best athletes. Even Mumme’s own son came home from school one day and announced he wanted to be Michael Jordan.
This was Texas, and most coaches still romanticized the notion that football had to be torture for it to be worthwhile. There was a machismo to the running game, ramming head-on into each other and surviving battles of attrition, with defenses built around big, physical players meant to win those battles.
“My generation’s football coaches fought World War II,” Mumme said, “and they were pretty damn determined to make us relive it every day in practice.”
So Mumme, who had already gone from being the nation’s youngest coordinator at UTEP at 27, was now 31, looking to reboot his career after the Miners’ whole staff had been fired, and he had a wild idea. What if he made football fun? What if he actually used the entire field?
And so the beginnings of the Air Raid were born, 67 miles from Austin, where just 10 years before, Texas coach Darrell Royal was running the wishbone and repeating his maxim: “Three things can happen to you whenever you throw the football, and two of ’em are bad.” But Mumme, who idolized Royal, realized that the same thing that made the wishbone work, spreading the ball in space to skilled athletes, might work even better as a passing offense. So he went all-in.
A decade later, Mumme burst onto the national scene at Kentucky, walking around on SEC fields, eating hot dogs, wearing flip-flops and listening to Jimmy Buffett before becoming the only UK coach in the past 100 years to beat Alabama. His creation made 5-9 slot receivers superstars and walk-on quarterbacks Heisman winners. Mumme made it possible for Mike Leach, a lawyer from Pepperdine, to become a college football icon, for Lincoln Riley, a Texas Tech walk-on himself from tiny Muleshoe, Texas, to lead two of the most storied programs in history. He made football interesting for unpedigreed coaches who loved the sport, but who would rather write books about Geronimo than sleep in their offices or run the damn ball.
“The Air Raid is not an offense,” TCU coach Sonny Dykes said. “The Air Raid is a way of life.”
“It’s a mentality,” Riley said, “more than a collection of plays.”
These mavericks changed the course of football history and rewrote record books, paving the way for Patrick Mahomes to win two Super Bowls while forcing Bill Belichick and Nick Saban to give into wide-open passing attacks. How they did it was never boring.
Last year, Dykes, a former Mumme assistant at Kentucky, made a historic run to the national title game after a 5-7 season. This year Deion Sanders, who used to pick Mumme’s brain and called Leach for offensive staff recommendations, is using the same wide-open principles at Colorado during its program jump-start, turning his own son, Shedeur, into a Heisman candidate at QB.
With the sport still mourning Leach, the most famous and revered coach in the extended Air Raid family, following his death in December, we set out to find tales from the rise of the game-changing offense that illustrate the methods behind their collective madness.
The test pilot
For every Tim Couch or Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams, the bluest of blue-chip prospects, there are dozens of record-setting Air Raid quarterbacks who were unwanted by anyone else, then ran up the gaudiest of numbers.
Dustin Dewald blazed the trail in Copperas Cove. He was one of those players who got disillusioned with the drudgery of football in the 1980s, so he quit to join the golf team after watching his older brother get pummeled over and over as their QB.
“We got our heads kicked in trying to run the ball down the throats of bigger, more powerful teams, lining up in the Power I with an offensive line that averaged 195 pounds,” Dewald said. “It was just ridiculous. Hal came in and said, ‘All that’s going to change.’ It did. I think it was the first time in 10 years we didn’t have a losing season in Cove.”
Between 1978 and 1985, Cove went 10-69, including two 0-10 seasons. In Mumme’s first year in 1986, the Bulldogs went 5-5. They were still outmanned, but Mumme, who began by using the run and shoot, gave them a shot in every game. Then against district rival Georgetown, the opposing coach, Art Briles, blitzed Mumme relentlessly, making it difficult for more complex plays to develop.
“I decided I was never going to let that happen to me again,” Mumme said, reducing his offense to a collection of short passes and horizontal crossing routes.
Dewald threw the ball more than all but a handful of schools in Texas that year. There had been only two scholarship players in the previous 10 years at Cove, but he signed with Stephen F. Austin. Then, he went through the same cycle, quitting due to boredom and joining the golf team at Tarleton State. There weren’t any college teams he knew of where he could replicate his experience. Until he went home to Cove to visit.
He stopped by the football offices to congratulate Mumme on his new job he’d just landed at a small college, Iowa Wesleyan. By the time he left, Mumme had once again recruited him to play quarterback for a team that was similar to Sanders’ Colorado experiment: IWU was coming off an 0-10 season and had just two players returning.
“We tried to have a team meeting after I got introduced at the press conference and they told me there were going to be 40 guys,” Mumme said. “I walk in, there’s two, and the three that I brought with me. I just gave ’em the same speech I was going to give ’em anyway about working hard in the offseason, and we’re going to win games. One kid just got up and walked out. I guess he decided, ‘This is bulls—, I’m not doing this.’ So we had four.”
Leach was one of only two applicants for Mumme’s offensive coordinator job, and they quickly realized they were kindred spirits. It was a leap of faith: The high school coach took a $20,000 pay cut to try to prove himself in college again. The lawyer who could’ve made $200,000 a year instead was making $12,000, and the golfer took on student-loan debt to go to school in Iowa — where none of them had ever been.
They went 7-4 the next year, then, by 1991, started tinkering and added the up-tempo element where they never huddled and ran plays at a frenetic pace. Opposing teams had never seen anything like it and had no idea how to stop it. In Dewald’s accidental career, he threw for 12,045 yards, 115 TDs and set 25 NAIA records. He threw for 4,418 yards and 45 TDs in 1991, including one game where he set national records with 86 attempts and 61 completions. Leach sent out news releases to national media, coining the name “Air Raid” in the process and building the mystique.
While it might have appeared the gaudy numbers were because of an intricate playbook, it was actually the opposite. There was no playbook at all. The philosophy was making things as barebones as possible.
Don’t practice plays you won’t call in a game. Don’t call plays in a game you don’t practice. Don’t throw to a covered receiver and don’t pass up an open one.
The plays came from LaVell Edwards at BYU, with Mumme saying he’s watched every offensive snap of Edwards’ career. He picked his favorites — four passing and two rushing — that seemed to always work. His practice drills, the real backbone of the Air Raid, according to the coaches, were all about details of that limited set, and were all based on Bill Walsh’s 49ers practices.
So he made every practice consistent and repetitive and drilled until they were mind-numbingly boring. Do it until you can’t screw it up, and let muscle memory win. And if it works, keep doing it. Mumme said he once called the same play 52 times in a game for Dewald.
Decades after helping launch the revolution, Dewald has watched teammates like Bill Bedenbaugh, an Iowa Wesleyan offensive linemen who’s now considered one of the best O-line coaches in the country at Oklahoma, along with Holgorsen, his old IWU wide receiver who’s become another of the sport’s most idiosyncratic coaches, and he finds it amusing that he still understands almost everything they do.
“For years, I would go visit [Leach or Mumme] every year for at least one home game and spend days with them at practice and on the sidelines of games,” Dewald said. “The last time I visited Mike at Washington State, I looked at the script for the game and it was crazy. I actually knew what to do on 90 percent of it — and it was almost 30 years after I stopped playing. Just to see what they’ve all accomplished has been mind-blowing for me, how much it’s changed the game and how successful they’ve all been has been really cool to watch.”
It won’t work, until it did
Chris Hatcher is convinced Mumme isn’t the inventor of the Air Raid. He claims the title.
Hatcher signed at Valdosta State to play for Mike Cavan, a former Georgia assistant who had coached under Vince Dooley and was Herschel Walker’s lead recruiter. They were an I-formation team with a few passing concepts.
Mumme arrived at Valdosta after Cavan left for another job and, armed with talent he’d never had before, he initially made the same mistake he criticized other coaches for: He overcomplicated things.
“I don’t care what anybody says, I’m the guy that invented the Air Raid,” Hatcher said. “I was not smart enough to comprehend all this stuff Hal wanted to do. So we had to dummy it way down for me. And then that’s when the Air Raid took off. That is the truth.”
Hatcher learned to appreciate the beauty of perfecting and running an offense so simple that he had a little extra time on his hands, enough to visit a frat party the night before homecoming and leave with a parting gift.
“You didn’t have to be in the film room all night because it didn’t matter what the defense was doing,” Hatcher said. “We were so good at it that you had time to go out and steal a cannon in the evening. It was a legit Civil War cannon, now, too. Let’s not act like it was a little peashooter.”
Hatcher, who’s now the head coach at Samford, threw for 11,363 yards and 121 touchdowns and set 29 school records. During his senior year in 1994, he led the Blazers to their first postseason berth, advancing to the quarterfinals, and when it was all said and done set 29 VSU passing and total offense records. He won the 1994 Harlon Hill Award, often called the D-II Heisman, as the Blazers went 40-17-1 in his career.
This captured the attention of Kentucky athletic director C.M. Newton, who wanted to match the basketball program’s pace. He handpicked Mumme, which raised eyebrows among purists who believed such a gimmick offense wouldn’t work in the big, bad SEC. But Kentucky already had a homegrown star quarterback in Tim Couch, albeit one who was last seen losing 65-0 in his first start to Florida — and defensive coordinator Bob Stoops — and attempted just 84 passes over seven games.
First, Mumme enlisted Hatcher, now a graduate assistant, to convince Couch not to transfer. (They went to Hooters and talked it out.) He stuck around, working with Hatcher, who was in charge of getting Mumme’s play scripts prepared for Couch’s wristband. Mumme would say Play 1 or Play 2, and Couch would call what’s on the wristband. Quarterbacks often would check into different plays freely, but in one game, Couch took it to an extreme.
“We get about three or four first downs and Couch ain’t run a play Mumme’s called yet,” Hatcher said. “We go down and score, and the whole time Mumme is on the headsets using a few choice words to me.”
Mumme accused Hatcher, who often changed the play himself when playing for Mumme, of purposely telling Couch not to run Mumme’s calls.
“I can’t believe you’d do this to me,” Mumme said, according to Hatcher. “Then it finally hit me. Couch was using the wristband from the week before, and didn’t change it out. Every play was wrong, and we went down and scored anyway. My point is, when you rep the plays so much, we feel like it doesn’t matter. I can pick me a handful of plays that should work against just about anything you’ll see. I like to say we’re a well-coached backyard football team.”
Couch’s mastery paid off in 1997 when he threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to Craig Yeast in overtime to lead Kentucky to a win over Alabama 40-34. It was Kentucky’s first win over Alabama in 75 years — something the Wildcats haven’t done since. It came just a year after Couch threw for 13 yards (UK had 67 total yards) in an entire game against Stoops’ Florida defense under Steve Spurrier. Couch threw for 348 and 406 yards in the next two meetings. While the Gators ended up pulling away and winning both games handily, it was frustrating for Stoops, and their mentality impressed him.
“I liked how [Leach] and Hal Mumme were over there standing together,” Stoops said. “I took note of the casual nature of the two of them. But they were the most difficult to deal with.”
A little extra mustard
Nothing Mumme did was by accident. He doesn’t dispute any contentions that he and Leach were arrogant.
“There’s no question,” Mumme said. “We always thought we were smarter than everybody else. We always thought we had better ideas than everybody else. And we pretty much did. That’s why everybody’s trying to do it now.”
Mumme could be combative with reporters, and Leach could be aloof. And they weren’t worried about too many other opinions.
“We played Jimmy Buffett during warmups,” said West Virginia coach Neal Brown, who played wide receiver at Kentucky under Mumme. “I don’t know if that gets it going for you.”
“It got me and Mike going,” Mumme said, laughing. “We weren’t worried about anybody else.”
They loved causing a stir or annoying other fans, like when Leach mocked Texas A&M’s Corps of Cadets as head coach at rival Texas Tech.
“How come they get to pretend they are soldiers?” Leach said. “The thing is, they aren’t actually in the military. I ought to have Mike’s Pirate School. The freshmen, all they get is the bandanna. When you’re a senior, you get the sword and skull and crossbones. For homework, we’ll work pirate maneuvers and stuff like that.”
The Aggies were not amused.
Then again, Leach and Mumme were, which was the point. Jeff Allen can testify.
Before Allen became the only staff member who has been with Nick Saban for his entire Alabama tenure, a trusted confidante and sports medicine guru, he was an assistant trainer at Kentucky — but most importantly, he was Mumme’s hot dog guy.
UK was about to play at LSU in Death Valley, then coached by embattled coach Gerry DiNardo. Mumme marched into the training room on Wednesday with a request that befuddled Allen.
“Hey, during pregame, when I’m talking to DiNardo, I want you to bring me a hot dog,” Mumme said.
Allen didn’t understand. He’d been with him for more than five years at this point, and this was a new one.
“Finally, over the next day or two, I said, ‘Why do you want a hot dog while you’re on the field talking to their head coach?” Allen said, “He said, ‘Because they’re going to be so uptight to begin with. I want to show ’em how carefree and how relaxed I am, and it’s going to make them even more nervous.'”
Mumme was very specific that he wanted mustard on it. He sent a student for the hot dog and was on the field during pregame when he saw Mumme, whom he hadn’t talked to yet on the day of the game. He thought, “well here goes nothing,” and headed over.
“I looked at him and said, ‘Coach, here’s your hot dog,’ Allen said. “He looked at me and goes, ‘Oh, thanks Jeff.’ Then he said, ‘Hey, hold on, hold on. Does it have mustard on it?'” Allen assured him it did, all the while playing it straight.
“I can still see DiNardo’s face,” Allen said. “He was like, ‘What in the world is happening here?’ And I swear to you, Hal just stood there talking and eating that hot dog. I walked off and I turned around and I wanted to see it again. And there they are talking and Hal is just chomping on a hot dog right there on the 50-yard line of Tiger Stadium. And our players were seeing it. They were laughing. They were dying during warmups watching it.”
The Wildcats were 0-24 on the road against ranked teams since 1977. They were 9½-point underdogs. They played fast and loose and kicked a walk-off field goal to win at the buzzer 39-36, sealing one of the biggest wins in school history. It led Kentucky to a bid in the Outback Bowl, the first New Year’s Day bowl for the Wildcats since 1952.
“I’m not saying we won that game because of the hot dog,” Allen said. “But I don’t think it hurt.”
The Air Raid goes mainstream
On Dec. 1, 1998, Oklahoma hired Stoops. The Sooners hadn’t had a winning season in six years and were coming off a 12-22 stretch in three years under John Blake. Stoops, then 38, was a hot commodity as a defensive coordinator. Hiring someone to run his offense was his first big decision.
“My initial talks were with Turner Gill, who was at Nebraska at the time,” Stoops said. “That didn’t really work out. And then I got to thinking. … I didn’t know [Leach], but the more I thought about it, the more I referred back to how challenging it was to handle Kentucky. If they can be that good at Kentucky, why couldn’t we be as good or better at Oklahoma? So I went with it.”
It was a bold move. Leach had never been a playcaller, and let’s face it, he was pretty weird.
“I thought Mike was really interesting,” Stoops said. “Mike had a little different way of doing things. But let me tell you something: He was a hell of a leader. He was demanding, as aloof as he might be. He wanted things done a certain way and they damn sure better be done that way or you were going to hear it. He might look laid back, he was demanding, very demanding.”
That was a learning curve for the rest of the staff, who couldn’t figure out if this was all an act, or if Leach was for real.
“It was completely different from anything that any of us had seen in the offensive meeting room,” former Oklahoma assistant and Kansas head coach Mark Mangino said. “It did take time to get used to.”
So did Leach’s personality. The staff was all staying at a hotel in Norman, and somehow Mangino’s room became the center of the action.
“I couldn’t get him out of my room when I was living in the Residence Inn,” Mangino said. “Every night, somebody delivered a couple cases of beer, a box of cigars, and we sat around and called recruits till about 11:30.”
By midnight, everyone was gone. Except Leach.
“Mike used to like to watch those simulcasts of Howard Stern. And those things would run till 4 in the morning. I’m in my bed trying to sleep. And here’s Leach at 3 in the morning, he’s laughing at Howard Stern, he’s drinking a beer and he’s having a good time.”
Stoops, too, had a learning curve.
“I learned after the first few weeks late at night not to stop in and check in on Mike,” Stoops said. “One night, it’s 11 or something, I’m ready to go home, and he starts telling me a story about Geronimo. After about 20 minutes, I said, ‘Mike, I’m going home. I’m the head coach, I get to go when I want.'”
Mangino, meanwhile, couldn’t shake him at night, and he couldn’t get through to him by day. In a staff meeting, Mangino suggested a running play. Leach couldn’t have been less interested. Mangino suggested trying it at practice, and Leach blew him off again. Mangino said maybe he’ll practice it anyway.
“Mike said, you could put it in all you want, you could run it during every play of inside drill, but I’m never going to call it in a game,” and Mangino and Leach nearly came to blows, Stoops said, laughing.
An irritated Stoops called them into his office and made them hash it out. Stoops made it clear that he had given Leach full control, and they’d do it his way. Leach and Mangino became good friends.
The Big 12 was never the same. The new-look Sooners went 7-5 and made their first bowl game in five years. Texas Tech hired Leach, and Mangino took over, finally getting to put in a couple of wrinkles of his own.
Mangino had a season’s worth of reps in place, and he said he ran about 80% of Leach’s offense. “And it worked,” he said. The Sooners won a national championship, going 13-0 behind Josh Heupel, a lightly recruited junior college quarterback Leach found at Snow College.
From the @kfor archives, Mike Leach at his last OU practice with Josh Heupel on Dec. 8, 1999. You can see the emotions as he talks with Heupel. Leach was introduced as the Texas Tech head coach the next day. pic.twitter.com/xm65rAhAes
— KFORsports (@KFORsports) December 14, 2022
“They were the ones that invented it … but we [Oklahoma, Leach, Texas Tech and the Big 12] were the ones to make it popular,” Stoops said. “They weren’t getting the national attention at Kentucky until we started it. And then, of course, we kept it and won the national championship.”
Liftoff in Lubbock
Leach became a star at Texas Tech. He took down No. 1 Texas, guided the Red Raiders to a bowl game in all 10 of his seasons and finished as the program’s all-time winningest coach at 84-43.
Dykes was part of Leach’s first staff that replaced his dad, Spike Dykes, who had retired.
“We were doing all this stuff that was really analytics, but they didn’t know it was,” Dykes said. “We were going for it all the time on fourth down or going for it in our own territory. My dad would be like, ‘What the hell are you doing?’ I’m like, ‘It gives us a chance to beat Texas. Instead of losing by 14, we might lose by 50. But we also might win?'”
It became one of the most influential eras in college football. In Mumme’s days in Kentucky, Urban Meyer and Sean Payton were among the earliest coaches to visit to try to learn what the Air Raid is all about. In Lubbock, Leach made sure his doors were wide open, and there were visitors everywhere.
Leach made sure his coaches knew that he wanted them to teach visitors anything they wanted to know.
There was only one issue: “They didn’t believe us,” said Lincoln Riley, who was a student assistant for Leach, because the entire offense was so simple.
“I’ve never been to a place where you had more coaches around constantly,” Riley said. “Mike was so open to people coming in. You think just Texas high school coaches? No. I’m talking professional coaches, college coaches from all around the country, high school coaches from all around the country, every single year. There’s a group from Japan that came, groups from England that came over, I mean, you name it, we had ’em.”
Dykes and Holgorsen, who were receivers coaches and later co-offensive coordinators, would handle a lot of high school coaches on their visits. Dykes said he can remember walking out to the parking lot one day and overhearing the coaches leaving convinced the offense couldn’t be that simple, that Leach & Co. were holding things back.
“‘Those sumb—— wouldn’t tell us anything,'” Dykes recalled them saying. “And we told them everything.”
Muleshoe High’s David Wood coached Riley and his brother Garrett Riley, now the offensive coordinator at Clemson, and watched as they passed over small-school offers to head to Lubbock to learn from Leach. Over time, he said, you could see the Tech influence take hold and spread throughout high school football, with Muleshoe being one of the early adopters, because Lincoln returned to help him install it while he was still a walk-on quarterback at Tech.
“We were a run offense, but once we realized how simple it was, we didn’t think it was going to be that hard to switch,” Wood said. “We used to run maybe 30 plays in practice because you analyze every play and tell every player what they did wrong and then you’d run the play again and make sure everyone did it right. The way Leach did it, when we watched it, you got to coach on the run. So we were able to get like 120 plays a practice instead of 30 plays a practice.”
Wood said when Riley set out for Lubbock in 2002, there were maybe two schools in the Texas Panhandle that were running a spread offense.
“I would say probably 70 percent of the teams we played when I retired [in 2017] were running it,” he said. “Maybe 80.”
The Big 12 became known for its shootouts, and Leach’s earliest quarterback rooms were filled with future stars and coaches, all of whom waited their turn, many of them just to start for one season. Kliff Kingsbury, who had originally signed with Spike Dykes, threw for more than 5,000 yards as a senior in 2002 and set seven NCAA records in his three years as a starter at Tech. His backup, B.J. Symons, set the NCAA passing record with 5,833 yards in 2003, and Symons’ backups, Sonny Cumbie and Cody Hodges, each passed for more than 4,000 yards in a season as starters.
They did it all because Leach repeated the same things he and Mumme had always preached, particularly in the film room.
“The worst coaching point he would ever give us, and the one that we all hated, was: ‘This guy was open. This guy was open. This guy was open. This guy wasn’t open. And he’s the one guy you threw it to!” said Cumbie, now the head coach at Louisiana Tech, imitating Leach’s monotone cadence. “I don’t care if it’s two-high [safety coverage], one-high. Is it man? Is it zone? Is this guy open? Yes. Throw it to him.”
Something’s in the air tonight
Mumme’s Kentucky era ended in an NCAA investigation, with Mumme resigning in 2001 amid findings that an assistant coach was sending money orders to players in Memphis. Mumme was cited for a “failure to monitor,” but was not punished by the NCAA.
Since then, he’ll sign up to coach anything, anytime, anywhere, including stops at New Mexico State, reviving football after 20 years at Southeastern Louisiana or stops at Division III schools Belhaven in Mississippi and McMurry in Texas.
“I’m the Johnny Appleseed of football,” Mumme said. “I always thought that was a great story. It’s not that I set out to do that — I never set out to get kicked out of Kentucky — but when you look back on it, providence had a plan. We spread it a whole lot of places it wouldn’t have been otherwise.”
And despite his offense being almost the norm now, rather than catching teams by surprise, it still works as it was intended: As a sort of money ball, beating teams that you have no business beating.
At McMurry, he took over a program that had three winless seasons in the previous decade, including an 0-10 mark the year before he arrived. Three years later, they were 9-3 and 7-1 in the conference.
Out of the spotlight, Mumme still made history. And he did it in the most Mumme way possible.
McMurry opened the 2011 season with an 82-6 loss to Stephen F. Austin, who was ranked in the FCS at the time. After getting down early, Mumme would just keep going for it on fourth down over and over. He was down 35-0 at halftime, and it only got worse from there. But he wouldn’t stop.
“Losing by 50 was the same as losing by 1,” Dykes said. “Hal never cared.”
The next week, Mumme gave the team four days off. He showed them five plays from the first half where it easily could’ve been 35-28 instead of 35-0. They were set to face UTSA the next week, a D-I team coached by Larry Coker, who’d won a national championship at Miami. Mumme’s quarterback, Jake Mullin, like Dewald, wasn’t on the team when he arrived. He played baseball, but was a quarterback on the intramural team when Mumme found him.
“They said they created this offense for teams without much talent, which was great for us,” Mullin said, who, like Dewald, ended up throwing for more than 12,000 yards in his career. “Whenever [Mumme] got there, there was not much there. I mean, I remember I was bigger than my left guard.”
Mumme took the team to the Menger Hotel in San Antonio, his favorite place, where Teddy Roosevelt recruited Texans at the bar to serve in his Rough Riders. He took the team on a tour of the Alamo the night before the game. The next day, McMurry upset UTSA 24-21 in front of 31,000 fans in the Alamodome, one of the only upsets of a D-I team by a D-III team in history, and Mullin threw for 372 yards.
“The Menger’s filled with ghosts, we did have a ghost sighting in there,” Mumme said. “Between the Menger ghosts and the Alamo ghosts, they probably helped us out.”
Mumme’s fascination with history earned him an invitation from then-McMurry professor Don Frazier to a party for his new book, “The Alamo and Beyond.” Also invited? One of the world’s largest collectors of Alamo memorabilia in the world: Phil Collins. Yes, that Phil Collins.
Frazier didn’t want Collins to be constantly accosted at the event, so he invited Mumme because he said half the table of Texans would rather talk to Mumme about the Air Raid and Leach than to a British rock star. Even about the Alamo.
Mumme got his copy autographed by Collins. The inscription reads:
“To coach… Something’s in the air tonight. Cheers. Phil Collins.”
The next chapter
Mumme, 71, keeps spreading the gospel. He is part of the operations group of a new spring league called the International Football Alliance with teams in Mexico and Texas, and will coach one of the teams. His son, Matt, who never became Michael Jordan, instead stuck with the family business and is now the assistant head coach at Colorado State.
Mumme has seen his little creation change the sport, including watching some of the most storied running teams of his lifetime at USC and Oklahoma be completely transformed. Now, it’s finally broken through to the final frontier: the Big Ten, where Wisconsin, under Leach acolyte Phil Longo, is following the same formula as Oklahoma: Join forces with a defensive head coach (Luke Fickell) and flip the offense. Harrell, the former Leach quarterback, is the new offensive coordinator at Purdue as well.
“A couple of days before Mike passed, we talked and he was just ultra excited that we’re bringing the Air Raid to the Big Ten,” Longo said. “It’s the most excited I’ve ever heard him. So it meant something to me that he was happy that we were making moves, and he’s the only one who didn’t seem shocked by it.”
Mason Miller, Leach’s offensive line coach at Mississippi State who is now the offensive coordinator at Tarleton State, has worked for either Mumme or Leach basically since 1994 when he played running back at Valdosta State. He said the Air Raid family has become so big that it has its share of “little sibling rivalries,” but that when they all get together, “we’re like magnets to each other.”
Leach’s loss has been profound on the family. But out of that loss, there’s a new beginning.
Leach’s son Cody spent two years as a volunteer coach at BYU under Kalani Sitake, and spent his dad’s final year as a graduate assistant at Mississippi State. Now, he’s an assistant special teams coach for the Bulldogs, who has completed his Air Raid certification — a service Mumme offers to keep spreading the word to coaches anywhere — and is studying his dad’s old game tapes stored in Gatorade coolers in his garage.
“I wish I could have gotten more time with him,” Cody, 27, said. “But Dad being so famous, being on TV, the occasional ‘Friday Night Lights’ cameo and other random stuff in media, I can always find him. Not everyone has that kind of opportunity where your parent is so well-documented that you can just find them and pull them up anytime.”
There’s another Mumme-Leach pairing in the works, with Cody hoping to follow his father’s path.
“He knew so many other amazing coaches and all the guys he knows, I’ve known for a long time too,” Cody said. “So I have plenty of people to be able to talk to. His was the first generation, and it’s kind of taking off into other branches. For me, it’s a legacy.”
Stoops says he can’t help but look around and see how profound their impact was.
“It goes back to Mike,” he said. “And Hal’s not talked enough about. He and Mike were joined at the hip. Between the two of them, I don’t know that anyone’s had a stronger influence on coaches. It goes on and on. The influence is huge. These tentacles from them go all over the place. They branch out from the two of them everywhere.”
Jake Trotter and Chris Low contributed to this story.
STILLWATER, Okla. — Redshirt freshman Baylor Hayes threw for 219 yards and a touchdown and Seth Morgan kicked four field goals to help Tulsa defeat Oklahoma State 19-12 on Friday night for the first time in 27 years.
Hayes started his second straight game in place of Kirk Francis and completed 23 of 36 passes without an interception for Tulsa (2-2), which last beat Oklahoma State in 1998. It was the Golden Hurricane’s first win in Stillwater since Nov. 3, 1951, ending a streak of 23 consecutive losses there.
The loss leaves things from bad to worse for coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys, who have won just one of their past 12 games dating to last season. They also fall to 0-9 when coming off a loss dating back to last season, their longest such streak in the AP Poll era (which dates to 1936).
“I thought (Tulsa) did a great job early in the game with some of the concepts that we hadn’t (anticipated) on defense,” Gundy said. “Really, through the first quarter, they outcoached us.
“I thought their quarterback played really well. He’s a good little operator. Made some plays and was able to run and scramble.”
Morgan kicked field goals of 27, 38 and 47 yards to give the Golden Hurricane a 16-3 halftime lead. He connected from 47 yards on Tulsa’s first drive of the third quarter to make it 19-3.
Oklahoma State (1-2) rallied after that behind Zane Flores, a third-year freshman making his second career start. Flores passed for 214 yards and rushed for 56, scoring on a 5-yard keeper to cut the deficit to 19-9 early in the fourth quarter.
Logan Ward‘s 49-yard field goal with 5:49 left in the quarter made it 19-12. The game ended when the Cowboys’ Gavin Freeman was pushed out of bounds at the Tulsa 10-yard line.
“I know we caught ’em at a bad time and they’re struggling right now, but it’s all about us right now,” Tulsa coach Tre Lamb said. “That’s a huge win for our program, that’s a statement win for me and our staff and our administration and I told the team new Tulsa’s back, and I told the ESPN guys that we don’t want to be on the second page of the paper.”
Oklahoma State was playing for the first time since a 69-3 loss to then-No. 6 Oregon on Sept. 6.
The Golden Hurricane rebounded in a big way following a 42-23 home loss to Navy. Tulsa’s defense held Oklahoma State to three points and 117 of its 403 total yards in the first half.
ESPN Research and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
If there’s an overriding storyline through three weeks, it has been about the winners and losers of some big bets on quarterbacks.
Miami bet on Carson Beck reviving his NFL prospects after a down year at Georgia. So far, he has delivered, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass with eight total touchdowns, and the Canes are ranked in the top five.
Oklahoma wagered Brent Venables’ future on John Mateer, and the Washington State transfer has been electric, leading the Sooners past Michigan in a Week 2 showdown and earning Heisman front-runner status.
Auburn felt sure former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold still had plenty of untapped potential, and through three weeks, he has looked like the superstar he once was, getting the Tigers to 3-0.
Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon all bet on in-house QBs rather than dipping into the transfer portal, and all have been rewarded.
Florida State, Indiana and Tulane hit pay dirt in the portal.
That’s the good news.
On the flip side, so many quarterbacks who were expected to provide massive dividends — Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, DJ Lagway, Nico Iamaleava, LaNorris Sellers — have wavered between average or awful.
Week 4 offers some chances for redemption, with Lagway getting another big test against Miami, Klubnik hoping to right the ship against Syracuse and UNC‘s Gio Lopez going on the road against UCF in the Tar Heels’ first real test since a blowout loss to TCU.
Some of the nation’s most talented young players have a chance to break through, too. CJ Carr can earn win No. 1 against woeful Purdue. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, coming off a strong performance against Central Michigan, has a much bigger test against Nebraska. Ole Miss’ Austin Simmons hopes to return from injury in time to make his mark in a showdown with Tulane.
The story is just beginning to be written, so there’s plenty of time for Manning, Klubnik and other preseason darlings to find their footing. But it has been a cold September for some of the nation’s most renowned passers, and Week 4 could be another opportunity for others to grab their share of the spotlight. — David Hale
Jump to:
Auburn-Oklahoma | Utah-Texas Tech
Quarterbacks who are falling short
Breakout players | Quotes of the week
What do each of these teams need to do to win?
Auburn: The Tigers have to disrupt Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer and make him pay for running the ball, and they have the ingredients to do so. Auburn is tied for sixth nationally in sacks per game (3.67) and tied for 12th in tackles for loss per game (8.7). Although Keldric Faulk is the headliner, Arkansas State transfer Keyron Crawford has been the team’s most disruptive pass rusher so far with three sacks and a forced fumble. The defense and run game, which ranks 16th nationally at 240 yards per game, ideally must reduce the pressure on quarterback Jackson Arnold in his highly anticipated return to Oklahoma. Arnold is completing nearly 70% of his passes, running the ball effectively and limiting mistakes, but the more Auburn’s other playmakers can take off his plate, the better the chances for a key road win. — Adam Rittenberg
Oklahoma: Arnold started nine games for the Sooners last fall. If anyone knows his weak spots, it’s Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. As Adam points out, Arnold (eight turnovers in 2024) has played efficient, mistake-free football in his first three games at Auburn. A Sooners defense that’s creating pressures on 44.6% of its snaps this season — 10th nationally, per ESPN Research — is built to change that and make Arnold uncomfortable, although Oklahoma will be without 2024 sack leader R Mason Thomas for the first half Saturday following a Week 3 targeting ejection. Mateer will have his own work cut out for him against the Tigers’ defensive front, but he should be able to find holes in a secondary that ranks 85th in yards allowed per game (220.0). The difference, ultimately, could come on the ground where a still-figuring-out Oklahoma rushing attack meets Auburn’s 10th-ranked run defense (67.0 yards per game) on Saturday. Freshman Tory Blaylock (5.4 yards per carry) has been the Sooners’ most effective running back through three games. — Eli Lederman
How do each of these quarterbacks need to perform?
Utah: Through three games a year ago, Utah had gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives. This season, it has happened only three times in three games. The difference is Devon Dampier, who has looked as at ease running his brand of dual-threat football in a Power 4 backfield as he did a year ago at New Mexico. Dampier has racked up more than 800 yards of offense and accounted for eight touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over. His skill set has made him particularly effective. He has already accumulated 80 yards on scramble plays, and three of his seven TD passes have come from outside the pocket. This will be his biggest test to date, but he’ll also be, by far, the biggest challenge for Texas Tech’s defense. — Hale
Texas Tech: Behren Morton hasn’t taken a snap after the third quarter across three straight 30-plus point victories to open the season. Still, Texas Tech’s senior quarterback enters Week 4 tied for No. 1 nationally in passing touchdowns (11) and ranks ninth in passing yards (923), leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (58.0 PPG). Utah, with the nation’s 20th-ranked pass defense (134.0 yards per game), should present Morton with his toughest test yet in 2025. He’ll have to be accurate against an experienced Utes secondary, and Morton’s decision-making will be key, too, in the face of a Utah front seven that features the nation’s joint sack leader in John Henry Daley — five in three games — and blitzes on 42.6% of its snaps, the 10th-highest rate among FBS defenses, per ESPN Research. Most of all, Texas Tech will hope Morton’s experience (27 career starts) can keep its offense steady in the Red Raiders’ first visit to a notoriously hostile Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Eli Lederman
Three quarterbacks who aren’t meeting their preseason hype
1. Arch Manning
Anyone can have a rough outing in a Week 1 matchup against the defending champs, and Manning looked fine a week later against San José State. So, nothing to worry about, right? Ah, not so fast. A dismal first half against UTEP ignited a full-on inferno of criticism of the preseason Heisman favorite, and for good reason. Manning is completing just 55% of his throws and has turned the ball over three times, and Texas has gone without a first down on nearly a quarter of its drives so far. Add the sideline grimace that coach Steve Sarkisian chalked up to — well, we’re not quite sure — and it would be enough reason for concern even if Manning didn’t carry a legendary name and a ton of hype. That this all comes on the heels of such high expectations means Manning will be fighting critics for the foreseeable future.
2. Cade Klubnik
What’s wrong with Clemson‘s offense? The answers are everywhere, but none appear bigger than Klubnik, who has at times looked lost, frustrated or intimidated in the pocket. His 37.5 QBR through three games ranks 121st out of 136 FBS passers, and his miserable first-half performances — no passing touchdowns, two turnovers — have put Clemson in some early holes. Klubnik is completing less than 60% of his throws on the year, but the bigger issue is the number of open receivers he hasn’t even targeted in key moments. He has been sacked just three times this year, but he has gotten moved off his position too often, and abandoned ship even more frequently. So, what’s wrong with the Tigers? The better question is what’s wrong with the Tigers’ QB?
3. DJ Lagway
After last year’s hot finish, the assumption was that Lagway would take the next step in 2025 to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Through three weeks, he’s nowhere close. Not only is Florida off to a 1-2 start, Lagway has been the primary culprit. He’s completing 71% of his throws, but nearly one-third of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. He has done nothing to extend the field, attempting just seven throws of 20 yards or more. On those throws, he has one completion and two picks. Lagway’s six interceptions overall are tied for the second most nationally through three games. If Florida wants to turn things around amid a brutal schedule, it has to start with Lagway looking more like the player he appeared to be down the stretch in 2024. — Hale
Five early breakout players
Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami: The 6-foot-3, 275-pound pass rusher is performing at an All-America level so far this season with 15 stops, 11 pressures, 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an interception and a forced fumble through three games. Bain was a top-100 recruit and a Freshman All-American in 2023, so there’s nothing shocking about his rise, but he’s making the leap as a junior and proving he’s a no-doubt NFL draft first-round pick. As ESPN draft expert Jordan Reid put it, no other draft-eligible player in the sport is having a greater down-to-down impact than Bain.
Taylen Green, QB, Arkansas: Green is off to an incredible start to his second season under OC Bobby Petrino, leading the country in total offense with 866 passing yards, 307 rushing yards (most among all FBS QBs) and 13 total touchdowns. Last week against Ole Miss, he became the first QB in program history to surpass 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a single game. The Razorbacks came up short in their SEC opener but have seven more top-25 opponents on the schedule, which should give Green every opportunity to play his way into Heisman contention.
Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M: The Aggies faced Craver last year during his freshman season at Mississippi State and knew he could be a dangerous playmaker. He has been an absolute game changer for Marcel Reed and Texas A&M’s passing game with an FBS-leading 443 receiving yards and four TDs on just 20 receptions. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound wideout isn’t flying under the national radar anymore after burning Notre Dame’s secondary for a career-best 207 yards on seven catches, and his 279 yards after catch are nearly 100 more than any other pass catcher in the country.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy had a prolific freshman season at UL Monroe and hasn’t slowed down one bit since making his move to the SEC. He’s now the second-leading rusher in the FBS with 462 yards and five TDs after a ridiculous 250-yard day against Louisiana last week. The sophomore has played in only 15 career games, yet he already has three 200-yard performances on his résumé, and he leads all FBS backs with 29 forced missed tackles, according to ESPN Research.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB, Cal: The true freshman from Hawaii was a late riser in the recruiting rankings as a high school senior, and we’re quickly learning why he became so coveted. Sagapolutele signed with Oregon but flipped back to Cal in early January, believing he’d have a chance to start right away for the Golden Bears. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound lefty has flashed big-time arm talent and exciting potential with 780 passing yards and seven total TDs while leading a 3-0 start. He’s becoming must-see TV on a Cal squad that looks poised to exceed expectations. — Max Olson
Quotes of the Week
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney on speculation about his job security:
“Hey, listen, if Clemson’s tired of winning, they can send me on my way. But I’m gonna go somewhere else and coach. I ain’t going to the beach. Hell, I’m 55. I’ve got a long way to go. Y’all are gonna have to deal with me for a while.”
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on quarterback Arch Manning:
“Here’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, the way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by. I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”
LSU coach Brian Kelly:
“LSU won the football game, won the game. I don’t know what you want from me. What do you want? You want us to win 70-0 against Florida to keep you happy?”
Michigan fill-in coach Biff Poggi on Bryce Underwood:
“He might actually be Batman. We need to do a DNA test on him.”
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key addressing his team after beating Clemson:
“Enjoy the s— out of it, man. Guess what? Next week is going to be bigger.”
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Bill Connelly
You could say that Saturday brings the first act of the 2025 college football season to a close.
Next week, we’ll get a couple of mammoth helmet games — Oregon at Penn State, Alabama at Georgia — and conference play will be fully underway. We’ll head into October talking a lot about playoff implications and the hierarchy among the sport’s top teams.
First, however, we have to tie up some loose ends. We get another week to figure out which of a large group of hyped-but-struggling quarterbacks — Texas’ Arch Manning, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — will steer out of a current skid. We get a huge Illinois-Indiana game (just an amazing combination of words there). We get a matchup of two of the Big 12’s best and meanest teams to date (Texas Tech at Utah). We get former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and Auburn heading to Norman in a battle of SEC unbeatens. And we get another massive week in the Group of 5, with American Conference unbeatens Memphis and Tulane getting shots at SEC upsets and ambitious teams such as UNLV, North Texas and Boise State facing big road tests.
At the start of the college football season, 11 teams had at least a 2% chance of winning the national title, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Three weeks in, there are 13. Nothing has been even slightly decided through three weeks, and the door for chaos could open even further this weekend. Before we get to the second act of 2025, here’s everything you need to follow in a loaded Week 4.
All times Eastern.
Jump to a section:
Scuffling QBs | Indiana-Illinois
Big 12 headliner | SEC eliminators?
G5’s big weekend | Week 4 playlist
Small-school showcase
Which disappointing quarterback can rally?
Despite some chaotic undertones, the season has gone approximately as we thought it might. Among the top nine teams in the preseason SP+ rankings, six are still there, and the three others (Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan) haven’t exactly plummeted. Some teams have disappointed early on, but few seasons are completely lost.
For a quartet of quarterbacks, however, we’re approaching now-or-never territory: Either start looking like you were supposed to look or chalk up 2025 as a spectacular disappointment.
Florida at No. 4 Miami (7:30 p.m., ABC)
If DJ Lagway threw only three interceptions against LSU, the Gators might have scored an upset. That’s a positive, right? He instead threw five in a 20-10 loss, but the Florida defense still gave the Gators a chance. It has allowed only 38 points in three games.
The offense has scored only 26 in two FBS games. Opponents aren’t afraid of the run game, receivers aren’t getting open, and Lagway is developing some pretty extreme tendencies in passing to specific areas of the field (as evidenced by all the green “completion” dots along the right sideline on this chart):
Four of Lagway’s six 2025 interceptions have come on third-and-long, and a fifth came in a last-ditch drive against LSU. He’s trying desperately to make something happen, and it’s bringing out some terrible tendencies.
Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been good, and he has gotten the help Lagway hasn’t, from his offensive line and his receivers. But the Florida defense could make this one interesting if Lagway can take what he’s given by a Miami defense that ranks 83rd in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: Miami -7.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 10.6 | FPI projection: Miami by 7.2
Syracuse at Clemson (noon, ESPN)
Like Lagway, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik has performed far worse than expected and has gotten little help from his castmates. Syracuse has a history of overachieving against Clemson, but the Orange have the worst-rated FBS defense remaining on the Tigers’ schedule. If Clemson’s offense, currently 96th in points per drive, doesn’t get going now, when might that happen?
The Orange blitz a good amount, and blitzing has hurt Clemson because of a banged-up offensive line and a less-than-scary run game. Klubnik is getting hit a lot and throwing lots of passes short of the sticks. The timing of the offense is off, and the Tigers can’t afford to suffer another conference loss before they start to figure things out. The return of veteran receiver Antonio Williams, listed as probable for Saturday, can’t hurt.
Current line: Clemson -16.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.2 | FPI projection: Clemson by 9.6
Southeastern Louisiana at No. 3 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN)
With all proper respect to Southeastern Louisiana — the Lions are seventh in FCS SP+ with a loss to only Louisiana Tech — I’m guessing that LSU remains unbeaten Saturday. Now’s a good time to start repairing an LSU offense that ranks just 112th in points per drive.
Garrett Nussmeier has the most tenable place on this list; his team is unbeaten, and he’s 37th in Total QBR — not what was expected but far higher than anyone else here. His main issue is that he’s playing it safe. The LSU run game might be even worse than it was last year, the offensive line is committing too many penalties, and Nussmeier is throwing mostly quick passes to keep the train moving. His 65% completion rate is solid, but his average yards per completion has fallen from 12.0 (pretty low) to 10.0 (terribly low).
LSU’s line should hold up against SELA — if it doesn’t, yikes — so it will be interesting to see if Nussmeier starts looking further downfield. Now’s the time to build some better habits.
SP+ projection: LSU by 33.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 34.9
Sam Houston at No. 8 Texas (8 p.m., ESPN+)
Going by projections, Texas has the easiest game on this list. But Arch Manning might also be the most broken QB. After showing potential progress in Week 2, Manning completed just 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards, a touchdown and an interception against UTEP. The Miners mostly rushed only four defenders and forced Manning to work through progressions; he took forever to throw and was frequently inaccurate.
Manning is 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate, and he’s 133rd in average time to throw (3.28 seconds). Meanwhile, his 14 dropbacks against man coverage have netted 13 total yards. His running backs are hurt, his line isn’t great, his receivers aren’t getting open enough and he’s throwing inaccurate passes. If the Texas offense doesn’t get right against a dreadful Sam Houston defense, it might not happen.
Current line: Texas -39.5 (down from -41.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 40.0 | FPI projection: Texas by 37.7
Shades of 1950 in Bloomington
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana (7:30 p.m., NBC)
On Oct. 28, 1950, “Goodnight Irene,” performed by The Weavers, was dominating the airwaves. “All About Eve,” starring Bette Davis and featuring a young Marilyn Monroe, was in theaters. SMU was No. 1 in the country, Bear Bryant’s Kentucky was No. 4 and live college football wasn’t found on national television.
It was a long time ago, is what I’m saying. And it was the last time Illinois and Indiana met as ranked foes. In that game, the No. 12 Fighting Illini rode spectacular line play to a 20-0 win over the No. 19 Hoosiers. History hasn’t been kind to either program since. But that has shifted of late.
Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers and Bret Bielema’s Illini are a combined 27-5 since the start of 2024, and though neither has played an opponent ranked higher than 65th in SP+, both are in the top 15 in points and points allowed per drive this season. They’re treating iffy opposition like excellent teams are supposed to.
Both teams dominate in the Little Things department — red zone, field position, turnovers — and both boast efficient offenses with dominant receivers: Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. has 299 yards and four TDs, while Illinois’ Hank Beatty has caught 19 of 20 passes for 289 yards and a TD. Each defense has allowed a few big plays, but they’re both still giving up 4.6 or fewer yards per play.
We know that blue bloods get the best TV ratings, but these two teams have earned this prime-time slot. The computers and sportsbooks lean toward Indiana — and frankly, it’s odd that Illinois is ranked 10 spots higher in the polls — but it would be a surprise if this one didn’t go down to the wire.
Current line: Indiana -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 3.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 3.1
A Big 12 headliner in Salt Lake City
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah (noon, Fox)
If you take preseason projections out of the equation — a terrible idea if you want predictive accuracy, but an intriguing way to look at performance to date — Texas Tech would be first in SP+ and Utah would be eighth. The Red Raiders have overwhelmed three bad opponents by an average score of 58-12, and the Utes lead the Big 12 in early overachievement, topping SP+ projections by an average of 13.7 points per game. On Saturday, one of these teams will score a huge early Big 12 win.
Tech’s defense gives up quite a few big plays, while Utah’s offense, as is customary, doesn’t make many. The Utes rank first in rushing success rate, but so does Tech’s defense. Defensive tackles A. J. Holmes Jr. and Skyler Gill-Howard have eaten up interior run blockers, but the Utah line is one of the most proven in the country, and quarterback Devon Dampier and RBs NaQuari Rogers and Wayshawn Parker keep Utah on schedule.
Even with huge leads in each game, Texas Tech has passed more than 35 times per game at a fast tempo. The Red Raiders are third in yards per dropback, and Behren Morton is completing 70% of his passes at 16.2 yards per completion. Receiver Coy Eakin‘s early numbers (245 yards at 20.4 per catch) are scary.
As you’d expect, however, Utah’s pass defense looks good, too: eighth in completion rate, ninth in interception rate, 24th in yards per dropback. The Utes have given up a few more third-and-long conversions than expected, and if that remains an issue, Tech might never give up the ball. Regardless, there are strength-versus-strength matchups everywhere. This game will be awfully fun.
Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 1.9 | FPI projection: Utah by 3.8
SEC elimination(ish) day
As with Indiana-Illinois in the Big Ten, the SEC has a couple of huge games among teams that aren’t necessarily conference title contenders — though, we don’t know for sure yet — but are jockeying for 10-2 records and potential CFP bids.
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Oklahoma’s ridiculously back-loaded schedule — six of its final seven opponents rank 17th or higher in SP+ — meant that the Sooners would need a fast start. So far, so good. They’re 3-0 with a win over Michigan despite an offense that remains a work in progress. Quarterback John Mateer might be the current Heisman betting favorite, but the run game averages just 4.3 yards per carry (not including sacks), and the Sooners have fumbled five times with lots of passes broken up. Their five turnovers (104th nationally) haven’t come from bad luck.
Still, Mateer is creating big plays with his arm, and four Sooner pass catchers are on pace for 50-plus receptions. Plus, the OU defense doesn’t need a ton of help — the Sooners rank fourth in points allowed per drive and third in yards allowed per play.
They’re also sixth in rushing success rate allowed, and that might be the most important number against Auburn. The Tigers are running the ball a ton, with the combo of running back Jeremiah Cobb and quarterback Jackson Arnold carrying a heavy load. They’re avoiding must-pass situations — which doomed Arnold as OU’s QB in 2024 — but they’ll likely face some Saturday afternoon, and we’ll learn if Arnold has improved a little or a lot from last year’s disastrous campaign.
Current line: OU -6.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 7.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.8
South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri (7 p.m., ESPN)
Missouri is one of just 16 teams to overachieve against SP+ projections in all three games, and the Tigers are up to 11th in SP+ because of it. The offense looks great because of a trio of transfers: quarterback Beau Pribula (on pace for 3,100 passing yards), running back Ahmad Hardy (1,800 rushing yards), and receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. (1,000 receiving yards).
South Carolina has the first top-50 defense (per SP+) the Tigers have faced, though the Gamecocks got worked over by Vanderbilt’s efficient attack last week in a jarring 31-7 loss. They don’t give up many big plays, but they rank 73rd in success rate. Mizzou’s offense ranks 12th.
The South Carolina offense saw plenty of offseason hype, but it has been an absolute dud, scoring just five touchdowns in three games and ranking 123rd in points per drive. Receivers Nyck Harbor and Donovan Murph are averaging 21.6 yards per catch, but at only four catches per game. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers has become even more sack-prone — I probably should have put him on the disappointing QBs list above — and this week, he has had to work through concussion protocol while preparing to face a Mizzou defense that grades out as well as or better than Vandy’s.
Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks are projected favorites in only two more games this season. Either they get back on track immediately or 2025 veers into “Lost Season” territory.
Current line: Mizzou -10.5 (down from -12.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 13.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 9.5
Another huge weekend for the Group of 5
The race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff spot could see some twists this week, with two major hopefuls (Memphis and Tulane) getting shots at SEC upsets, and three others — UNLV, North Texas and Boise State — all facing tricky road trips.
Arkansas at Memphis (noon, ABC)
Memphis has looked awesome early and gets AAC opponents South Florida, Tulane and Navy at home. SP+ gives the Tigers a 36% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. Quarterback Brendon Lewis and running back Sutton Smith (in for the injured Greg Desrosiers Jr.) lead an efficient offense, and the defense has crushed bad offenses (including a Troy offense that lost its starting QB early on).
Arkansas’ offense, however, is as explosive as ever, thanks to quarterback Taylen Green, running back Mike Washington Jr. and receiver O’Mega Blake. The Razorbacks could be a permanent track-meet team thanks to a shaky defense, but Arkansas is capable of regularly winning those track meets, too.
Current line: Arkansas -7.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.5 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 2.4
Tulane at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
It’s hard to figure out how good Tulane actually is. The Green Wave made runs of 27-0 against South Alabama and 24-3 against Duke but let both opponents back into the game. Jake Retzlaff is 11th in Total QBR, but the run game moves backward a lot. The defense is a turnover machine, but it’s inefficient otherwise. Against whichever Ole Miss QB holds the reins — the injured Austin Simmons or backup Trinidad Chambliss, who destroyed Arkansas — the Green Wave will need far more stops than they’ve been making. Ole Miss’ run defense has been damningly bad, but the Rebels probably have too much firepower for Tulane to snag a third power-conference victory.
Current line: Ole Miss -13.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 13.8
UNLV at Miami (Ohio) (noon, ESPNU)
After a rough start against Idaho State in Week 0, Dan Mullen’s UNLV has begun to look the part, and SP+ gives the Rebels a 14% chance of getting to 11-1 or better. Anthony Colandrea is fifth among G5 quarterbacks in Total QBR, both RB Jai’Den Thomas and WR Jaden Bradley are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons, and the defense has at least stabilized a bit.
Miami was outscored 62-17 by Wisconsin and Rutgers, but the RedHawks gave up almost no big plays, and with explosive quarterback Dequan Finn and receivers Keith Reynolds and Kam Perry on offense, they could make UNLV’s long road trip awkward.
Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 8.4 | FPI projection: UNLV by 3.3
North Texas at Army (noon, CBSSN)
In two home games, quarterback Drew Mestemaker and North Texas have overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 77.6 points. In their lone road game, the Mean Green nearly lost to No. 122 Western Michigan. They’ll need to play far better in West Point against an Army team that sure looked like Army again in Week 2’s upset of Kansas State. Quarterback Cale Hellums rushed for 124 yards and led five drives of double-digit plays in Manhattan, Kansas, and if Hellums remains steady moving forward, Army will be a giant pain for any AAC team with CFP aspirations. Like North Texas.
Current line: North Texas -2.5 (flipped from Army -2.5) | SP+ projection: Army by 2.2 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.2
Boise State at Air Force (7 p.m., CBSSN)
Boise State’s season-opening faceplant at USF, combined with an upcoming trip to Notre Dame, removed all margin for error. The Broncos will likely have to sweep Mountain West play to have any hope of a CFP bid. Of course, they’re projected favorites in every MWC game, and they still have massive talent with running back Sire Gaines, defensive tackle David Latu, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and safety Ty Benefield.
Air Force has been a pain for BSU plenty of times, and the Falcons still dominate the ball. But the defense got torched by Utah State last week. Not an encouraging sign.
Current line: BSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 10.6 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.2
Week 4 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Our winning streak ended last week when Miami, Ole Miss (barely), Alabama and Auburn all won. But we’re still 2-for-3 on the young year, and now it’s time to move to 3-for-4!
Sticking with this week’s “Anatomy of a mid-major upset” theme, SP+ says there’s only a 38% chance that Washington (88% win probability against Washington State), Cal (80% against San Diego State), Colorado (75% against Wyoming) and BYU (72% against East Carolina) all win. Let’s take down a power-conference team!
Week 4 playlist
Here are some more games you should follow if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Iowa at Rutgers (8 p.m., Fox). In theory, few matchups scream “ROCK FIGHT!!” like Iowa-Rutgers, but Rutgers is ninth in points per possession and 83rd in points allowed per possession. Iowa has little big-play potential, but the Hawkeyes have moved the ball well against mortal defenses. So, maybe this one isn’t destined to finish 7-6 or 5-3 or something.
Current line: Iowa -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rutgers by 0.2 | FPI projection: Rutgers by 1.6
Tulsa at Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN). At the moment, this is the last game in which OSU is a projected favorite. Either the Cowboys use this as a spectacular get-right game after their 66-point humiliation at Oregon in Week 2 — or there’s (more) pain on the horizon in Stillwater.
Current line: OSU -12.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 9.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.0
Early Saturday
SMU at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Battle for the Iron Skillet! Few teams have underachieved against SP+ projections more than SMU through three games; maybe a rivalry game will wake up the Mustangs. If not, TCU’s big-play offense could have a lot of fun against an SMU defense that has given up loads of chunk plays.
Current line: TCU -6.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.4 | FPI projection: TCU by 4.7
UAB at No. 15 Tennessee (12:45 p.m., SECN). Trent Dilfer’s third UAB team has been the same “solid offense, no defense” squad as his past two. If Tennessee is still reeling from last week’s heartbreaker against Georgia, the Blazers might land a punch or two, but not 60 minutes’ worth.
Current line: Vols -38.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 37.0 | FPI projection: Vols by 36.4
Maryland at Wisconsin (noon, NBC). Per SP+, Wisconsin has only a 26% chance of reaching bowl eligibility this season, thanks to a schedule that already featured one top opponent and has five more to go. Lose to Maryland, and those odds fall to basically nil. At least it sounds like injured quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. — formerly a Terrapin — could be ready to go.
Current line: Wisconsin -9.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 0.4 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 5.1
Saturday afternoon
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska (3:30 p.m., CBS). Two years ago, Nebraska was on the wrong end of a 45-7 blowout loss to Michigan at home. Now, on paper, the Huskers have basically a 50-50 shot at taking down the Wolverines and scoring their biggest win since, what, 2015 (39-38 over No. 7 Michigan State)?
Current line: Michigan -1.5 | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 1.1 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 0.1
Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Well, Notre Dame, it’s time to start scoring some style points. After losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish will have to win out to have serious hope of a CFP shot, and they might have only one more genuine marquee win opportunity — USC in Week 8, and that’s only if the Trojans maintain their current form. So, it’s time to wreck some opponents. (Purdue might have something to say about that. Especially if the Irish defense doesn’t start defending.)
Current line: ND -26.5 | SP+ projection: ND by 20.4 | FPI projection: ND by 20.3
NC State at Duke (4 p.m., ESPN2). Duke has allowed 18 gains of 20-plus yards (tied for 122nd nationally). NC State has given up eight of 30-plus (tied for 114th). With State’s Hollywood Smothers and Wesley Grimes and Duke’s Nate Sheppard and Cooper Barkate, this could be a great game to be an explosive skill corps guy.
Current line: Duke -3.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 1.2 | FPI projection: NC State by 0.1
North Carolina at UCF (3:30 p.m., Fox). I have no idea about either of these teams. Bill Belichick’s UNC has collected itself since its embarrassing Week 1 loss to TCU, and UCF has been good enough in Scott Frost’s first two games back in town. But anything from a 35-point UNC win to a 35-point UCF win wouldn’t surprise me.
Current line: UCF -7.5 | SP+ projection: UCF by 7.0 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.2
Temple at No. 18 Georgia Tech (4:30 p.m., The CW). Temple can make some big plays and could make things messy if Georgia Tech lets its guard down after last week’s big win over Clemson. The Yellow Jackets haven’t given us any reason to think that’s possible, though. (By the way, they’re projected favorites in their next eight games.)
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 21.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.9
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (3 p.m., BTN). Three weeks into the season, Oregon has risen from seventh to second in SP+ while OSU has fallen from 75th to 107th. We will need to conjure a lot of Weird Rivalry Magic to make this one interesting.
Current line: Oregon -34.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 40.1 | FPI projection: Oregon by 36.3
Saturday evening
Arizona State at Baylor (7:30 p.m., Fox). Arizona State finally checked into the 2025 season, putting away a spirited Texas State team with relative ease last week. Now, the close-game festival that is Big 12 Play begins against a Baylor team that might have transformed its season with Week 2’s wild comeback win over SMU.
Current line: Baylor -2.5 | SP+ projection: Baylor by 3.8 | FPI projection: Baylor by 0.8
West Virginia at Kansas (6 p.m., FS1). Kansas got a week to recover after a blown lead and a rivalry loss to Missouri; WVU is riding the crest of a big comeback and a rivalry win over Pitt. Who’s ready to move past the emotion and start the rest of their season? I’m pretty sure Kansas is still good, and WVU’s offense might have finally begun its season late against Pitt.
Current line: Kansas -13.5 | SP+ projection: Kansas by 7.1 | FPI projection: Kansas by 9.7
BYU at East Carolina (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). ECU has overachieved against SP+ projections by nearly three touchdowns per game. The Pirates could be good. And they get to give BYU’s freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier his first big road test. But the Pirates will have to score on BYU’s defense, which is first in points per drive and yards per play.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 9.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 6.0
Washington at Washington State (7:30 p.m., CBS). Washington State was impressive in its 36-13 runaway win over San Diego State in Week 2. Then, the Cougs went to North Texas and got absolutely blasted 59-10. Week 2 Wazzu and a torrid Martin Stadium would make this awfully tricky for Washington. Week 3 Wazzu … would not.
Current line: UW -20.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 18.6 | FPI projection: UW by 21.0
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). From 2021 through 2024, each of these proud old mid-major programs went 14-35 with an SP+ ranking of about 112.5. Now, both are 2-1 with at least a 60% chance of bowl eligibility. Can Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton engineer enough points on a Tech defense allowing 12.3 points per game?
Current line: Tech -3.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.7
Late Saturday
Michigan State at No. 25 USC (11 p.m., Fox). A kickoff at 11 p.m. ET for a team based in Eastern Time? Cool. Makes perfect sense. Anyway, USC is averaging 55 points per game and 9.6 yards per play, and Michigan State has topped 40 points for two straight games. I don’t think the Spartans have the defense to make this a game for 60 minutes, but this could have Pac-12 After Dark vibes for a while.
Current line: USC -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: USC by 17.7 | FPI projection: USC by 24.2
California at San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal are 3-0 and projected favorites in the next six games. But they’re 94th in third-down conversion rate, and SDSU’s defense ranks seventh. If the Aztecs can score a bit (not a given), they could make this one tricky.
Current line: Cal -12.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 13.2 | FPI projection: Cal by 10.9
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 6 Mary Hardin-Baylor (noon, local streaming). These programs lorded over Division III for nearly 15 years before getting surpassed by North Central. Both are still talented and dangerous, and they’re meeting for the seventh straight season (not including 2020). UWW has produced a 200-yard rusher in each of its first two games, but a third straight, against the Crusaders’ defense, would be a surprise.
SP+ projection: Whitewater by 1.2
Division III: No. 3 Johns Hopkins at No. 4 Susquehanna (1 p.m., FloFootball). The second D-III game on the list is even bigger: JHU backed up its top-five standing with a 27-13 win over No. 20 John Carroll last week and boasts the second-best defense in D-III, per SP+. Susquehanna, meanwhile, ranks fifth on offense. It might be North Central vs. The Field in D-III, but either of these teams could make a deep playoff run.
SP+ projection: Susquehanna by 0.3
FCS: No. 23 New Hampshire at Dartmouth (1 p.m., ESPN+). An incredibly interesting Ivy League season finally opens Saturday: The league champ will participate in the FCS playoffs for the first time, and at first glance, it looks like we have a three-team race among Harvard, Yale and a Dartmouth team that gets an immediate shot at a résumé win of sorts. UNH nearly beat Ball State last week — it was actually a bit of an upset that the Wildcats didn’t — and boasts one of the stingier defenses the Big Green attack will see all season.
SP+ projection: Dartmouth by 1.7
(One game you shouldn’t track? Rio Grande at Ferris State. That’s the second-worst team in NAIA, per SP+ — pronounced “Ry-Oh Grand” and located in the same Ohio town as the first Bob Evans restaurant — facing the class of Division II. SP+ projects Ferris State as a tidy 97.2-point favorite. The final score will be whatever the Bulldogs want it to be. If morbid curiosity gets the best of you, it kicks off at 3 p.m. on FloFootball.)
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