‘If not them, why us?’ Keir Starmer needs to give people a reason to vote Labour

Published

2 years ago

October 7, 2023

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When Labour last met in Liverpool for its annual conference, Liz Truss had just delivered her mini-Budget, sterling had fallen to a 37-year low and the markets were about to be plunged into turmoil.

With her government imploding and weeks after the Johnson collapse, Labour were on a high.

Sir Keir Starmer had clocked up a 17-point lead over the Tories – Labour’s best poll performance against its adversaries for two years. It was the conference where we saw hope give way to belief – from the top of the party to the bottom – that Labour was going to win the next general election.

A year on, and Sir Keir will arrive back in Liverpool with a growing body of the evidence to back it up.

He’s riding in on a high, smashing through the SNP in Scotland with a whopping win in the Rutherglen & Hamilton by-election. It’s the sort of result that doesn’t just put Sir Keir a nose ahead, it puts him in outright majority territory.

I know it’s only one by-election and extrapolating it out has to be treated with caution, but the 20-point swing to Labour smashed internal expectations and, if replicated across Scotland, would garner Labour 40-plus seats.

There is no route to Number 10 for Sir Keir that doesn’t go through Scotland; not since 1955 has the Labour Party formed a government with fewer than 40 seats north of the border

“It was beyond what we hoped for,” one delighted senior Labour figure told me after the Rutherglen result.

“We have to build on it. We are the change.”

Change: the simple reason Mr Sunak is trying to position himself as a change candidate despite leading a party in power for 13 years. He has no option, however much of a stretch it may seem.

Both parties’ polling shows that voters overwhelmingly want things to change.

What they are yet to be convinced of is that the change has to be a Labour government. Sir Keir’s task in Liverpool this week then is to answer the question: “If not them, why us?”

“Sunak may have had ‘long-term decisions’ written up on the wall for his speech, but he didn’t have any long-term decisions in the speech,” says one senior Labour figure. “There was nothing on the economy, no plan for growth, nothing on tackling the cost of living.”

Fleshing out the five missions

What Sunak does have though, are five pledges plastered over everything he’s done for the past 10 months, which is far more than Sir Keir has got.

At the beginning of the year, the Labour leader set out five missions for government.

I know what the missions are because it’s my job to go to his press conferences and read his speeches; analyse and explain to you what he’s doing and why – but I suspect most of you haven’t a clue.

Growth for higher living standards; clean energy super power; NHS fit for the future; safer streets; breaking down barriers to opportunity: this conference will be the moment where Sir Keir gets to the brass tacks of how these missions translate into real policies.

There’ll be announcements on the “first steps of what each of the missions are”, says one of Sir Keir’s core team. We are going to see concrete policies, specific first steps, campaigning elements for activists. It will be the equivalent of Sir Keir’s pledge card to voters.

The approach will be different too.

In Manchester, the Conservatives used their conference to set down dividing lines for their opponent – trans and gender issues, motorists, immigration, high-speed rail, smoking – to try to draw Labour into rows they hope will play well with undecided voters.

Labour, meanwhile, wants to show it’s a government-in-waiting, that it has more important stuff to do than taking pot shots at opponents, or each other.

“We don’t need to make the case for change,” explains one senior figure. “We’ll do a bit of red meat for the hall, but we don’t need to spend our conference attacking the Tories.

“We will be telling people what will be different with Labour.”

So the tone will be professional, confident, but in no way complacent.

‘Tories will throw some wild punches’

It’s been nearly 20 years since Labour last won an election and they are desperate not to slip up, no matter how many banana skins the Tories toss at their feet.

Sir Keir will position himself as PM-in-waiting, while Rachel Reeves also has an enormous task this week to show herself to be the chancellor-in-waiting, and the person voters can trust with the nation’s finances.

Labour knows Mr Sunak’s election approach rests on falling inflation, economic upturn and tax cuts, with a lot of ‘you can’t trust Labour on the economy’ thrown in. Ms Reeves has to prove to voters they can.

“Tony Blair was said to be a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor as he approached the 1997 general election. The Ming vase now has economic credibility written on it,” one adviser joked to me.

Be it the economy and spending, high-speed rail, immigration or social wedge issues around gender, Starmer’s team is all too aware of the risks of being drawn into territory where the Conservatives want to fight, and will want to run the shadow cabinet with iron discipline in Liverpool.

“The Tories are like a boxer going into the final round and losing,” explains one senior party operative.

“They are going to throw some wild punches. Some will hit and some won’t, but they have won the past four elections and won’t be going down without a fight.”

The task for Labour is to try to dodge the attacks, stick to their battle plan and finish the course.

But the task this week is also to not just offer reassurance, but hope.

Sir Keir needs to come out of the crouch position and assert a plan and vision of Britain that gives people a reason to vote for him that goes beyond being fed up with the incumbents.

How he does that without reverting to the spending lever for public services isn’t an easy task, but it’s one he needs to pull off as he looks to seal the deal with voters.

Politics

Crypto execs expect global banking push into Bitcoin by end of 2025

Published

6 hours ago

April 8, 2025

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Crypto execs expect global banking push into Bitcoin by end of 2025

Despite the ongoing market meltdown on US trade tariffs, executives at major cryptocurrency firms Messari and Sygnum are bullish on institutional Bitcoin adoption later in 2025.

Speaking on a panel at Paris Blockchain Week on April 8, Messari CEO Eric Turner and Sygnum Bank co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said they expect a significant shift in the banking sector’s involvement with crypto in the second half of the year.

According to the executives, the global banking push into Bitcoin (BTC) services has great potential to happen in the second half of 2025 as regulators embrace crypto, including stablecoins and crypto services by banks.

“I think we’re probably looking at a muted Q2, but I’m really excited for Q3 and Q4,” Messari’s Turner said during the panel discussion moderated by Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, forecasting “really interesting” things coming to the crypto market in 2025.

Crypto adoption is not just about Trump

While some investors focus on the pro-crypto stance of US President Donald Trump, Turner emphasized that broader regulatory momentum is what matters most.

“When you look at the potential of having market structure regulation in the US, stablecoin regulation, and just the fact that across the board, not just President Trump himself, but the SEC and all these regulatory industries are really embracing crypto,” Turner said.

Banks, Paris, Bitcoin Regulation, Policy — Paris Blockchain Week’s panel with Cointelegraph CEO Yana Prikhodchenko, Bancor co-founder Eyal Hertzog, Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger, Messari CEO Eric Turner, AWS fintech leader Alex Matsuo and Near chief operating officer Chris Donovan. Source: Cointelegraph

Sygnum co-founder Thomas Eichenberger said international banks with US branches are also poised to enter the market once the legal landscape becomes clearer:

“I think it’s a matter of fact that US banks are preparing to be able to offer crypto custody and at least crypto spot trading services anytime soon.”

“I think by then I would agree with you, Eric,” he continued, projecting a continued phase of market uncertainty until the US establishes a clear regulatory framework.

Banks are no longer afraid of Bitcoin regulators

With the establishment of clear crypto rules for banks in the US, there will be a rush for crypto services by large international banks that are incorporated outside of the US but have a US-based presence, Eichenberger said.

“Some of them may have had their strategic plans in their cupboard to offer crypto-related services, but have been afraid that at some point they will be gone after by any of the US regulatory authorities,” he said, adding:

“Now I think there’s no one to be afraid of anymore in terms of regulatory authorities worldwide. So I think many of the large international banks will launch this year.”

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Politics

Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Published

9 hours ago

April 8, 2025

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Trump tariff negotiations are ‘all about’ China deal — Raoul Pal

Global trade tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures may come to an end with a potential deal with China as investors remain concerned about escalation from both sides.

Trump’s April 2 announcement of reciprocal import tariffs sent shockwaves through global equity and crypto markets. The measures include a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with higher levies — such as a 34% tariff on Chinese imports — set to begin on April 9.

However, the tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach an agreement with China, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

“In the end, almost all the other tariff negotiations and rhetoric are all about getting China to agree a deal,” Pal wrote in an April 8 X post, adding:

“That is the big prize and both China and the US understand it and need it. Everything else is negotiation posturing. China needs a weaker $ and the US needs tariffs.”

“Also, the US is trying to shut down China tariff arbitrage using other channels such as Mexico or Vietnam,” Pal said.

China retaliates with new tariffs

Considering China’s latest retaliatory measures, a resolution remains unlikely in the short term.

In response to US tariffs, China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports effective April 10, media outlet Xinhua News reported on April 4. China’s foreign ministry also vowed to “fight till the end” against Trump’s tariffs, which it called “bullying” by the world’s largest economy.

China overtook the US in 2012 to become the world’s largest trading nation by the total value of exports and imports, surpassing $4 trillion in goods trade that year, according to The Guardian.

Crypto markets watch trade outcome closely

As the trade dispute continues to evolve, analysts say a potential agreement between the two global superpowers could serve as a key catalyst for recovery in digital asset markets.

Crypto markets have a 70% chance to bottom by June 2025 before recovering, Nansen analysts predicted.

Investor appetite for risk assets such as Bitcoin will depend on the global tariff responses from other countries, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“We have reached somewhat of a local bottom in regard to tariffs and the impact on prices,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X, adding:

“Trump came out guns blazing, and we’ve mostly seen the worst from the US side, so we’ll see if other countries are willing to drop some of the tariffs because it’s very likely the US will do the same.”

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Politics

Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

Published

12 hours ago

April 8, 2025

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Nigerian court postpones Binance tax evasion case to end of April: Report

A Nigerian court has reportedly delayed the country’s tax evasion case against Binance until April 30 to give time for Nigeria’s tax authority to respond to a request from the crypto exchange.

Reuters reported on April 7 that a lawyer for Binance, Chukwuka Ikwuazom, asked a court the same day to invalidate an order allowing for court documents to be served to the company via email.

Binance doesn’t have an office in Nigeria and Ikwuazom claimed the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) didn’t get court permission to serve court documents to Binance outside the country.

“On the whole the order for the substituted service as granted by the court on February 11, 2025 on Binance who is … registered under the laws of Cayman Islands and resident in Cayman Islands is improper and should be set aside,” he said.

FIRS sued Binance in February, claiming the exchange owed $2 billion in back taxes and should be made to pay $79.5 billion for damages to the local economy as its its operations allegedly destabilized the country’s currency, the naira, which Binance denies.

It also reportedly alleged that Binance is liable to pay corporate income tax in Nigeria, as it has a “significant economic presence” there, with FIRS requesting a court order for the exchange to pay income taxes for 2022 and 2023, plus a 10% annual penalty on unpaid amounts along with a nearly a 27% interest rate on the unpaid taxes.

Nigeria’s legal history with Binance

In February 2024, Nigeria arrested and detained Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla on tax fraud and money laundering charges. The country dropped the tax charges against both in June and the remaining charge against Gambaryan in October.

Anjarwalla managed to slip his guards and escape Nigerian custody to Kenya in March last year and is apparently still at large.

Gambaryan, a US citizen, returned home in October after reports suggested his health had deteriorated during his detainment with reported cases of pneumonia, malaria and a herniated spinal disc that may need surgery.

Binance stopped its naira currency deposits and withdrawals in March 2024, effectively leaving the Nigerian market.

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