When Labour last met in Liverpool for its annual conference, Liz Truss had just delivered her mini-Budget, sterling had fallen to a 37-year low and the markets were about to be plunged into turmoil.
With her government imploding and weeks after the Johnson collapse, Labourwere on a high.
Sir Keir Starmer had clocked up a 17-point lead over the Tories – Labour’s best poll performance against its adversaries for two years. It was the conference where we saw hope give way to belief – from the top of the party to the bottom – that Labour was going to win the next general election.
A year on, and Sir Keir will arrive back in Liverpool with a growing body of the evidence to back it up.
He’s riding in on a high, smashing through the SNP in Scotland with a whopping win in the Rutherglen & Hamilton by-election. It’s the sort of result that doesn’t just put Sir Keir a nose ahead, it puts him in outright majority territory.
I know it’s only one by-election and extrapolating it out has to be treated with caution, but the 20-point swing to Labour smashed internal expectations and, if replicated across Scotland, would garner Labour 40-plus seats.
There is no route to Number 10 for Sir Keir that doesn’t go through Scotland; not since 1955 has the Labour Party formed a government with fewer than 40 seats north of the border
More on Keir Starmer
Related Topics:
“It was beyond what we hoped for,” one delighted senior Labour figure told me after the Rutherglen result.
“We have to build on it. We are the change.”
Advertisement
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:35
By-election win ‘not a protest vote’ – Starmer
Change: the simple reason Mr Sunak is trying to position himself as a change candidate despite leading a party in power for 13 years. He has no option, however much of a stretch it may seem.
Both parties’ polling shows that voters overwhelmingly want things to change.
What they are yet to be convinced of is that the change has to be a Labour government. Sir Keir’s task in Liverpool this week then is to answer the question: “If not them, why us?”
“Sunak may have had ‘long-term decisions’ written up on the wall for his speech, but he didn’t have any long-term decisions in the speech,” says one senior Labour figure. “There was nothing on the economy, no plan for growth, nothing on tackling the cost of living.”
Fleshing out the five missions
What Sunak does have though, are five pledges plastered over everything he’s done for the past 10 months, which is far more than Sir Keir has got.
At the beginning of the year, the Labour leader set out five missions for government.
I know what the missions are because it’s my job to go to his press conferences and read his speeches; analyse and explain to you what he’s doing and why – but I suspect most of you haven’t a clue.
Growth for higher living standards; clean energy super power; NHS fit for the future; safer streets; breaking down barriers to opportunity: this conference will be the moment where Sir Keir gets to the brass tacks of how these missions translate into real policies.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:57
Three things to look for at Labour conference
There’ll be announcements on the “first steps of what each of the missions are”, says one of Sir Keir’s core team. We are going to see concrete policies, specific first steps, campaigning elements for activists. It will be the equivalent of Sir Keir’s pledge card to voters.
The approach will be different too.
In Manchester, the Conservatives used their conference to set down dividing lines for their opponent – trans and gender issues, motorists, immigration, high-speed rail, smoking – to try to draw Labour into rows they hope will play well with undecided voters.
Labour, meanwhile, wants to show it’s a government-in-waiting, that it has more important stuff to do than taking pot shots at opponents, or each other.
“We don’t need to make the case for change,” explains one senior figure. “We’ll do a bit of red meat for the hall, but we don’t need to spend our conference attacking the Tories.
“We will be telling people what will be different with Labour.”
So the tone will be professional, confident, but in no way complacent.
‘Tories will throw some wild punches’
It’s been nearly 20 years since Labour last won an election and they are desperate not to slip up, no matter how many banana skins the Tories toss at their feet.
Sir Keir will position himself as PM-in-waiting, while Rachel Reeves also has an enormous task this week to show herself to be the chancellor-in-waiting, and the person voters can trust with the nation’s finances.
Labour knows Mr Sunak’s election approach rests on falling inflation, economic upturn and tax cuts, with a lot of ‘you can’t trust Labour on the economy’ thrown in. Ms Reeves has to prove to voters they can.
Image: The spotlight will also be on shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves (right)
“Tony Blair was said to be a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor as he approached the 1997 general election. The Ming vase now has economic credibility written on it,” one adviser joked to me.
Be it the economy and spending, high-speed rail, immigration or social wedge issues around gender, Starmer’s team is all too aware of the risks of being drawn into territory where the Conservatives want to fight, and will want to run the shadow cabinet with iron discipline in Liverpool.
“The Tories are like a boxer going into the final round and losing,” explains one senior party operative.
“They are going to throw some wild punches. Some will hit and some won’t, but they have won the past four elections and won’t be going down without a fight.”
The task for Labour is to try to dodge the attacks, stick to their battle plan and finish the course.
But the task this week is also to not just offer reassurance, but hope.
Sir Keir needs to come out of the crouch position and assert a plan and vision of Britain that gives people a reason to vote for him that goes beyond being fed up with the incumbents.
How he does that without reverting to the spending lever for public services isn’t an easy task, but it’s one he needs to pull off as he looks to seal the deal with voters.
The Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) push to isolate crypto markets and its controversial recommendations on DeFi and stablecoins is “dangerous” for the entire financial system, warns the head of a blockchain investment firm.
“Many of their recommendations and conclusions — perhaps due to a mix of fear, arrogance, or ignorance — are completely uninformed and, frankly, dangerous,” CoinFund president Christopher Perkins said in an April 19 X post, referring to the BIS’ April 15 report titled “Cryptocurrencies and Decentralized Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications.”
BIS recommendations exposes TradFi to risks of “unimaginable scale”
“Crypto is not communism,” Perkins said, pushing back against the BIS’ call for a “containment” approach to isolate crypto from traditional finance and the broader economy.
“It’s the new internet that provides anyone with a connection access to financial services,” Perkins said. “You cannot control it anymore than you control the internet,” he added.
Perkins warned that a containment approach to crypto would expose the traditional financial system to massive liquidity risks “of unimaginable scale,” especially when the crypto market operates in real-time, 24/7, while traditional financial markets shuts down after trading hours.
“If implemented they will cause–not mitigate–the systemic risk they seek to prevent.”
Perkins pushed back against the BIS’ claim that DeFi presents significant challenges, arguing instead that it represents a “significant improvement” over the “opacity” and imbalances of the traditional financial system.
Responding to the BIS’s concern about the anonymity of DeFi developers, Perkins questioned its relevance:
“Sorry, but when was the last time a TradFi company published a list of its developers? Sure, public companies provide a degree of disclosures and transparency, but they seem to be dying off in favor of private markets.”
Perkins also critiqued the BIS’s concern around stablecoins that it could lead to “macroeconomic instability in countries like Venezuela and Zimbabwe.”
“If there is demand for USD stablecoins and it helps improve the condition of anyone in the developing world, perhaps that is a good thing,” Perkins said.
Perkins wasn’t alone in criticizing the controversial report. Lightspark co-founder Christian Catalini also weighed in, posting a series of critiques on X that same day. Catalini summed up the report with the analogy:
“Think: writing parking regulations for a fleet of self‑driving drones — earnest work, two technological leaps behind.”
Unwary travellers returning from the EU risk having their sandwiches and local delicacies, such as cheese, confiscated as they enter the UK.
The luggage in which they are carrying their goodies may also be seized and destroyed – and if Border Force catch them trying to smuggle meat or dairy products without a declaration, they could face criminal charges.
This may or may not be bureaucratic over-reaction.
It’s certainly just another of the barriers EU and UK authorities are busily throwing up between each other and their citizens – at a time when political leaders keep saying the two sides should be drawing together in the face of Donald Trump’s attacks on European trade and security.
Image: Keir Starmer’s been embarking on a reset with European leaders. Pic: Reuters
The ban on bringing back “cattle, sheep, goat, and pig meat, as well as dairy products, from EU countries into Great Britain for personal use” is meant “to protect the health of British livestock, the security of farmers, and the UK’s food security.”
There are bitter memories of previous outbreaks of foot and mouth disease in this country, in 1967 and 2001.
In 2001, there were more than 2,000 confirmed cases of infection resulting in six million sheep and cattle being destroyed. Footpaths were closed across the nation and the general election had to be delayed.
In the EU this year, there have been five cases confirmed in Slovakia and four in Hungary. There was a single outbreak in Germany in January, though Defra, the UK agriculture department, says that’s “no longer significant”.
Image: Authorities carry disinfectant near a farm in Dunakiliti, Hungary. Pic: Reuters
Better safe than sorry?
None of the cases of infection are in the three most popular countries for UK visitors – Spain, France, and Italy – now joining the ban. Places from which travellers are most likely to bring back a bit of cheese, salami, or chorizo.
Could the government be putting on a show to farmers that it’s on their side at the price of the public’s inconvenience, when its own measures on inheritance tax and failure to match lost EU subsidies are really doing the farming community harm?
Many will say it’s better to be safe than sorry, but the question remains whether the ban is proportionate or even well targeted on likely sources of infection.
Image: No more gourmet chorizo brought back from Spain for you. File pic: iStock
A ‘Brexit benefit’? Don’t be fooled
The EU has already introduced emergency measures to contain the disease where it has been found. Several thousand cattle in Hungary and Slovenia have been vaccinated or destroyed.
The UK’s ability to impose the ban is not “a benefit of Brexit”. Member nations including the UK were perfectly able to ban the movement of animals and animal products during the “mad cow disease” outbreak in the 1990s, much to the annoyance of the British government of the day.
Since leaving the EU, England, Scotland and Wales are no longer under EU veterinary regulation.
Northern Ireland still is because of its open border with the Republic. The latest ban does not cover people coming into Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey, or the Isle of Man.
Rather than introducing further red tape of its own, the British government is supposed to be seeking closer “alignment” with the EU on animal and vegetable trade – SPS or “sanitary and phytosanitary” measures, in the jargon.
Image: A ban on cheese? That’s anything but cracking. Pic: iStock
UK can’t shake ties to EU
The reasons for this are obvious and potentially make or break for food producers in this country.
The EU is the recipient of 67% of UK agri-food exports, even though this has declined by more than 5% since Brexit.
The introduction of full, cumbersome, SPS checks has been delayed five times but are due to come in this October. The government estimates the cost to the industry will be £330m, food producers say it will be more like £2bn.
With Brexit, the UK became a “third country” to the EU, just like the US or China or any other nation. The UK’s ties to the European bloc, however, are much greater.
Half of the UK’s imports come from the EU and 41% of its exports go there. The US is the UK’s single largest national trading partner, but still only accounts for around 17% of trade, in or out.
The difference in the statistics for travellers are even starker – 77% of trips abroad from the UK, for business, leisure or personal reasons, are to EU countries. That is 66.7 million visits a year, compared to 4.5 million or 5% to the US.
And that was in 2023, before Donald Trump and JD Vance’s hostile words and actions put foreign visitors off.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:40
Trump: ‘Europe is free-loading’
More bureaucratic botheration
Meanwhile, the UK and the EU are making travel between them more bothersome for their citizens and businesses.
This October, the EU’s much-delayed EES or Entry Exit System is due to come into force. Every foreigner will be required to provide biometric information – including fingerprints and scans – every time they enter or leave the Schengen area.
From October next year, visitors from countries including the UK will have to be authorised in advance by ETIAS, the European Travel and Authorisation System. Applications will cost seven euros and will be valid for three years.
Since the beginning of this month, European visitors to the UK have been subject to similar reciprocal measures. They must apply for an ETA, an Electronic Travel Authorisation. This lasts for two years or until a passport expires and costs £16.
The days of freedom of movement for people, goods, and services between the UK and its neighbours are long gone.
The British economy has lost out and British citizens and businesses suffer from greater bureaucratic botheration.
Nor has immigration into the UK gone down since leaving the EU. The numbers have actually gone up, with people from Commonwealth countries, including India, Pakistan and Nigeria, more than compensating for EU citizens who used to come and go.
Image: Editor’s note: Hands off my focaccia sandwiches with prosciutto! Pic: iStock
Will European reset pay off?
The government is talking loudly about the possible benefits of a trade “deal” with Trump’s America.
Meanwhile, minister Nick Thomas Symonds and the civil servant Mike Ellam are engaged in low-profile negotiations with Europe – which could be of far greater economic and social significance.
The public will have to wait to see what progress is being made at least until the first-ever EU-UK summit, due to take place on 19 May this year.
Hard-pressed British food producers and travellers – not to mention young people shut out of educational opportunities in Europe – can only hope that Sir Keir Starmer considers their interests as positively as he does sucking up to the Trump administration.
Ed Miliband has accused Nigel Farage of peddling “nonsense and lies” about the government’s commitment to net zero, as the Reform UK leader said the issue could become the “new Brexit”.
The energy secretary said both Mr Farage’s party and the Conservatives were prepared to “make up any old nonsense and lies to pursue their ideological agenda” ahead of next month’s local elections.
The former Labour leader also warned if an anti-net zero agenda was followed, it would not only risk “climate breakdown” but also “forfeit the clean energy jobs of the future” in Britain.
In an article for The Observer referring to price rises that began in 2022, he wrote: “Our exposure to fossil fuels meant that, as those markets went into meltdown and prices rocketed, family, business and public finances were devastated.
“The cost of living impacts caused back then still stalk families today.”
Image: Ed Miliband during a visit to the London Power Tunnels. Pic: PA
‘Hopelessly out of touch’
After the government’s decision to take control of British Steel from its Chinese owners earlier this month, Mr Farage accused Mr Miliband, whom he has repeatedly called “Red Ed”, of pursuing “net-zero lunacy”.
He said efforts to cut carbon emissions have made it harder to source the coal required to keep blast furnaces at the company’s crisis-hit Scunthorpe plant running after supplies were shipped from abroad last week.
In an interview with The Sun, Mr Farage said net zero could become “the new Brexit”, “where parliament is so hopelessly out of touch with the country”.
The Reform leader wants the government to ditch its target of achieving net zero by 2050.
Since she became Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch has also cast doubt on the government’s commitment to achieving net zero by 2050 – a target made by her own party.
But Sir Keir Starmer is expected to double down on the government’s commitment to clean power at an International Energy Agency conference in London this week.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:45
Farage rides on tractor
‘We need a British DOGE’
In his interview with The Sun, Mr Farage also vowed to be Britain’s equivalent of Elon Musk by cutting excess council spending if his party claims victory in next month’s local elections.
Mr Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has dismantled entire US federal agencies and cut tens of thousands of jobs.
The Reform leader said he would “send in the auditors” to every council Reform wins, adding: “The whole thing has to change. We need a British DOGE for every county and every local authority in this country.”
That’s despite the National Audit Office warning councils are facing a major funding crisis, with social care in particular putting huge strain on their budgets.
Votes for 1,641 council seats across 23 authorities in England will take place on 1 May.