Keir Starmer starts Labour conference with a by-election boost – but he knows he must avoid slip ups at all cost

Published

2 years ago

October 7, 2023

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This Labour Party conference will feel different.

Unlike the Conservatives, they don’t need a big comeback moment to save them from dire polling, nor are there peacocking leadership hopefuls waiting in the wings (or at least, there is no looming vacancy).

Instead, particularly after the massive win in the Rutherglen by-election, this is a party trying to hold its nerve – any slip up could be dangerous. Labour knows this is not a time for big risks.

As one shadow cabinet ally of Sir Keir put it to me: “It feels like I’m about to go to my brother’s wedding. I really want everything to go well but I know how easily things can go wrong.”

It will be a highly managed affair. Broadcast rounds will be tightly controlled, and fringe events closely monitored. As one senior Labour figure put it, “we need to be radiating vibes of a government in waiting”.

The party, though, will need to watch out not just for members veering off piste at the fringes but work out how to avoid Tory traps.

What is Sir Keir’s answer to HS2? Labour won’t commit to reversing the government’s controversial decision to scrap the northern leg. And can Labour really promise real change – to “Get Britain’s Future Back” (this year’s party slogan) – without spending any money?

What is Sir Keir’s answer to HS2? Labour won’t commit to reversing the government’s controversial decision to scrap the northern leg. And can Labour really promise real change?

There will be pressure on the Labour leader to put more policy meat on the bone at the conference, as one Labour MP said: “There is far too much complacency and too little detail.”

The MP warned: “We need to stop talking about when we’re in government. It doesn’t go down well with voters. What we need is a real agenda that binds us all.”

Sir Keir has been bolder in recent weeks, certainly when it comes to policy on Europe and immigration, which has, in turn, opened him up to criticism and a Conservative party keen to paint him as too close to Europe.

One Labour candidate with an interest in immigration tells me Labour’s approach will be “less gimmicks, more sensible pragmatic policy that works”.

There is a desire too from members for at least a nod in Sir Keir’s speech to at least a vision on housing, the NHS and the cost of living.

And what of Sir Keir, the man? Rishi Sunak certainly tried to reveal more of himself by enlisting his rarely spotted wife, Akshata Murthy, as a warm-up act. Last year, the Labour leader brandished his credentials as the “son of a tool maker” – we could well see another attempt to sell ‘brand Starmer’ to the conference and the electorate.

Ultimately, this Labour conference will be about avoiding any slip ups, and keeping the momentum and the polls behind the Labour leader.

Roy Hattersley compared Labour’s 1997 “no risks” campaign to a butler carrying a ming vase across a polished floor. The ming vase analogy applies again today.

Keir Starmer’s conference speech will be one of the most important of his career. A bad speech could unravel his hopes of becoming the next prime minister; a good one could put him a step further on the path to Number 10 this time next year.

“This is the first milestone to the election”, one shadow cabinet minister told me, “we need to show we can shoulder the weight that comes with being in power”.

Politics

‘No doubt’ UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence in next parliament, defence secretary says

Published

2 hours ago

May 31, 2025

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'No doubt' UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence in next parliament, defence secretary says

There is “no doubt” the UK “will spend 3% of our GDP on defence” in the next parliament, the defence secretary has said.

John Healey’s comments come ahead of the publication of the government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) on Monday.

This is an assessment of the state of the armed forces, the threats facing the UK, and the military transformation required to meet them.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously set out a “clear ambition” to raise defence spending to 3% in the next parliament “subject to economic and fiscal conditions”.

Mr Healey has now told The Times newspaper there is a “certain decade of rising defence spending” to come, adding that this commitment “allows us to plan for the long term. It allows us to deal with the pressures.”

A government source insisted the defence secretary was “expressing an opinion, which is that he has full confidence that the government will be able to deliver on its ambition”, rather than making a new commitment.

The UK currently spends 2.3% of GDP on defence, with Sir Keir announcing plans to increase that to 2.5% by 2027 in February.

This followed mounting pressure from the White House for European nations to do more to take on responsibility for their own security and the defence of Ukraine.

The 2.3% to 2.5% increase is being paid for by controversial cuts to the international aid budget, but there are big questions over where the funding for a 3% rise would be found, given the tight state of government finances.

While a commitment will help underpin the planning assumptions made in the SDR, there is of course no guarantee a Labour government would still be in power during the next parliament to have to fulfil that pledge.

A statement from the Ministry of Defence makes it clear that the official government position has not changed in line with the defence secretary’s comments.

The statement reads: “This government has announced the largest sustained increase to defence spending since the end of the Cold War – 2.5% by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament when fiscal and economic conditions allow, including an extra £5bn this financial year.

“The SDR will rightly set the vision for how that uplift will be spent, including new capabilities to put us at the leading edge of innovation in NATO, investment in our people and making defence an engine for growth across the UK – making Britain more secure at home and strong abroad.”

Sir Keir commissioned the review shortly after taking office in July 2024. It is being led by Lord Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary and NATO secretary general.

The Ministry of Defence has already trailed a number of announcements as part of the review, including plans for a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command and a £1bn battlefield system known as the Digital Targeting Web, which we’re told will “better connect armed forces weapons systems and allow battlefield decisions for targeting enemy threats to be made and executed faster”.

On Saturday, the defence secretary announced a £1.5bn investment to tackle damp, mould and make other improvements to poor quality military housing in a bid to improve recruitment and retention.

Mr Healey pledged to “turn round what has been a national scandal for decades”, with 8,000 military family homes currently unfit for habitation.

He said: “The Strategic Defence Review, in the broad, will recognise that the fact that the world is changing, threats are increasing.

“In this new era of threat, we need a new era for defence and so the Strategic Defence Review will be the vision and direction for the way that we’ve got to strengthen our armed forces to make us more secure at home, stronger abroad, but also learn the lessons from Ukraine as well.

“So an armed forces that can be more capable of innovation more quickly, stronger to deter the threats that we face and always with people at the heart of our forces… which is why the housing commitments that we make through this strategic defence review are so important for the future.”