Rishi Sunak pledged the UK government’s continued commitment to Ukraine during his speech at the Conservative Party conference.
Joe Biden has also reaffirmed USsupport for “as long as it takes”.
However, beyond the political rhetoric, public support for the conflict is waning, and democratic elections will – inevitably – impact Western support.
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine, and will Vladimir Putin’s aggression ultimately be rewarded?
Western military support for Ukraine is vital, not only material, but also moral.
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0:49
PM tells Zelenskyy: ‘You belong here’
However, as the war drags towards its second anniversary, the West’s ability – and enthusiasm – to maintain current levels of military aid are under growing pressure.
Notwithstanding the regular and fulsome Western political support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for how long can that rhetoric translate into vital military equipment, ammunition and financial aid?
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Although there remains widespread Western sympathy for Ukraine’s plight, in the post-pandemic era with cost of living issues and high energy costs, choices need to be made.
Continued support for Ukraine has impacted adversely on the economies of Western nations and evidence suggests that public opinion is drifting inexorably towards domestic priorities.
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The recent election of a pro-Kremlin leader as prime minister of Slovakia – a NATO country – was built on an election promise to cease Slovakian aid to Ukraine.
Image: Slovakia’s Robert Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine
And this is not an isolated case.
Poland is also facing crucial elections, which has led to increased tensions with Ukraine.
US presidential and UK parliamentary elections are likely next year, and with a recent US poll suggesting that most Americans do not support continued aid to Ukraine, Western “war fatigue” is mounting.
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3:06
Biden tells Zelenskyy: ‘We’re with you’
West’s primary objective has been achieved, but is a protracted war supportable?
Although President Zelenskyy remains – understandably – committed to liberating every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine, is that achievable?
This year the West has provided an extensive array of weapons, ammunition, military training and financial support.
However, four months into Ukraine’s “spring” offensive, and despite huge casualties for both sides, the frontlines remain largely static.
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0:28
Aftermath of missile strikes on Ukraine
If Ukraine was unable to make progress this summer when arguably it was as well-prepared as it could ever be, would continued Western military support simply lead to a protracted, costly and largely static conflict.
Is that supportable?
From the West’s perspective, a key motivation for supporting Ukraine – not a member of NATO – was to avoid Russian aggression threatening the rest of Europe.
Russia’s military capability has been badly damaged by the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has lost more than 2,000 of its most capable tanks – so it looks unlikely that it will have the military capability to threaten Europe again for at least a decade.
The West’s primary objective has been achieved.
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But even if public support was sustained, the supply of weapons is not sustainable.
Western military aid to Ukraine has focused on high-tech weapons to enable precision strike at range, with low collateral damage; this capability has been a vital component of Ukraine’s battlefield successes this past year.
But, modern weapons are expensive – so produced in limited numbers – and once acquired the production line closes.
Image: Leopard 2 tanks during training in Poland, part of the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine. Pic: AP
So, stocks cannot be replaced swiftly. National stockpiles can be reduced, but only by taking increasing national security risks, and that is not something that can be continued ad infinitum.
The chairman of the NATO military committee has warned that Western weapon stocks are low, and there is little prospect of them being replenished in the near-term.
Western public support for the war is waning, and stockpiles of weapons are limited.
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Ultimately, it is President Zelenskyy’s decision as to what next, but since all conflicts either end when one side is defeated – unlikely in this war – or a compromise is reached, the writing is on the wall.
Even if a compromise would be seen by many as a success for Putin, some might venture that it is better to “learn the wisdom of compromise, for it is better to bend a little than to break”.
However, that might prove a short-term palliative for a war-weary West.
In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.
The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.
“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.
“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.
“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.
“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahuhas the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”
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3:14
Ex-Israeli aide dismisses genocide claims
His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.
A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.
For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.
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Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.
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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”
Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.
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Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.
They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.
Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.
It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.
But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.
On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.
Image: More than 40% of Europe was in drought as of 11-20 May 2025. Pic: CEMS / EDO
Image: Heat was record high in March in Europe. The image on the right shows the south of the continent was much wetter than average and the north much drier. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’
In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.
“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.
“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”
Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.
But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.
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1:55
‘Tropical nights’ soar in European hotspots
Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’
This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.
Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.
He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.
Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.
Image: A drought was declared in northwest England on Thursday. Pic: Reuters
The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.
Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.
Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.
“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.
“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”
At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.
Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.
Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.
Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.
Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.
Image: A tanker is swept away by floodwaters
The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.
Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.
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Image: Water appears to be flowing over a dam behind the town
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In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.
Nigeriais prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.
Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.
Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.