Western support for Ukraine is waning, but it’s up to Zelenskyy to decide what happens next
Rishi Sunak pledged the UK government’s continued commitment to Ukraine during his speech at the Conservative Party conference.
Joe Biden has also reaffirmed US support for “as long as it takes”.
However, beyond the political rhetoric, public support for the conflict is waning, and democratic elections will – inevitably – impact Western support.
Is this the beginning of the end for Ukraine, and will Vladimir Putin’s aggression ultimately be rewarded?
Western military support for Ukraine is vital, not only material, but also moral.
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PM tells Zelenskyy: ‘You belong here’
However, as the war drags towards its second anniversary, the West’s ability – and enthusiasm – to maintain current levels of military aid are under growing pressure.
Notwithstanding the regular and fulsome Western political support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for how long can that rhetoric translate into vital military equipment, ammunition and financial aid?
Although there remains widespread Western sympathy for Ukraine’s plight, in the post-pandemic era with cost of living issues and high energy costs, choices need to be made.
Continued support for Ukraine has impacted adversely on the economies of Western nations and evidence suggests that public opinion is drifting inexorably towards domestic priorities.
The recent election of a pro-Kremlin leader as prime minister of Slovakia – a NATO country – was built on an election promise to cease Slovakian aid to Ukraine.
Slovakia’s Robert Fico has vowed to stop military aid to Ukraine
And this is not an isolated case.
Poland is also facing crucial elections, which has led to increased tensions with Ukraine.
US presidential and UK parliamentary elections are likely next year, and with a recent US poll suggesting that most Americans do not support continued aid to Ukraine, Western “war fatigue” is mounting.
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Biden tells Zelenskyy: ‘We’re with you’
West’s primary objective has been achieved, but is a protracted war supportable?
Although President Zelenskyy remains – understandably – committed to liberating every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine, is that achievable?
This year the West has provided an extensive array of weapons, ammunition, military training and financial support.
However, four months into Ukraine’s “spring” offensive, and despite huge casualties for both sides, the frontlines remain largely static.
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Aftermath of missile strikes on Ukraine
If Ukraine was unable to make progress this summer when arguably it was as well-prepared as it could ever be, would continued Western military support simply lead to a protracted, costly and largely static conflict.
Is that supportable?
From the West’s perspective, a key motivation for supporting Ukraine – not a member of NATO – was to avoid Russian aggression threatening the rest of Europe.
Russia’s military capability has been badly damaged by the invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has lost more than 2,000 of its most capable tanks – so it looks unlikely that it will have the military capability to threaten Europe again for at least a decade.
The West’s primary objective has been achieved.
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US supplies Ukraine with ammunition
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Supplying weapons is not sustainable
But even if public support was sustained, the supply of weapons is not sustainable.
Western military aid to Ukraine has focused on high-tech weapons to enable precision strike at range, with low collateral damage; this capability has been a vital component of Ukraine’s battlefield successes this past year.
But, modern weapons are expensive – so produced in limited numbers – and once acquired the production line closes.
Leopard 2 tanks during training in Poland, part of the EU’s military assistance to Ukraine. Pic: AP
So, stocks cannot be replaced swiftly. National stockpiles can be reduced, but only by taking increasing national security risks, and that is not something that can be continued ad infinitum.
The chairman of the NATO military committee has warned that Western weapon stocks are low, and there is little prospect of them being replenished in the near-term.
Western public support for the war is waning, and stockpiles of weapons are limited.
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Writing is on the wall
Ultimately, it is President Zelenskyy’s decision as to what next, but since all conflicts either end when one side is defeated – unlikely in this war – or a compromise is reached, the writing is on the wall.
Even if a compromise would be seen by many as a success for Putin, some might venture that it is better to “learn the wisdom of compromise, for it is better to bend a little than to break”.
However, that might prove a short-term palliative for a war-weary West.
But would such a decision deter Putin from future expansionist ambitions, and how would a compromise impact China’s calculus when considering its options over Taiwan?
As James Russell Lowell once opined, “compromise makes a good umbrella but a poor roof”.
The US joined Russia to vote against a UN resolution on the Ukraine war – and abstained from voting on one it drafted after amendments proposed by European countries were added.
The 193-member assembly approved a US-drafted resolution, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which had originally called for an end to the conflict but did not mention Moscow’s aggression.
It also made no mention of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
However, it was amended after European nations said that it should include references to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the need for a lasting peace in line with the UN Charter.
It was also amended to include references to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
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The amended US-drafted resolution won 93 votes in favour, while 73 states abstained – including the US – and eight – including Russia – voted no.
On the same day, the UN General Assembly approved a European-backed resolution from Ukraine which demanded Russia immediately withdraw from the country.
There were also 93 votes in favour of this resolution, while 65 abstained and 18 voted against it.
The UK, France and Germany were among the countries that voted in favour of the Ukraine-backed resolution, which called for a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine”.
The US, Russia, Belarus and North Korea were among those that opposed it.
The US voted against Ukraine’s resolution. Pic: AP
The duelling proposals reflect the tensions that have emerged between the US and Ukraine after Donald Trump suddenly opened negotiations with Russia in a bid to quickly resolve the conflict.
It also underscores the strain in the US’ relationship with Europe over the Trump administration’s decision to engage with Moscow.
The outcome marks a setback for the Trump administration in the UN General Assembly, whose resolutions are not legally binding but are seen as a barometer of world opinion.
However, later in the day, the UN Security Council approved the US resolution calling for an end to war in Ukraine – but without mentioning Russia’s aggression. The resolution received 10 votes in favour, while the remaining five members – including France and the UK – abstained.
Dame Barbara Woodward, the UK’s ambassador to the United Nations, said after the UN Security Council approved the motion: “What, how and on what terms this war ends can only be decided by negotiations with Ukraine.
“No peace will be sustainable without Ukraine’s consent.
“We regret that our proposals making these points clear were not taken on board, and as such we could not support this resolution.
“But we share the ambition to find a lasting end to this war, supported by robust security arrangements that ensure Ukraine never again has to face Russia’s attack.”
It came after the results in the General Assembly had showed some diminished support for Ukraine – as more than 140 nations had voted to condemn Russia’s aggression in previous votes.
The United States had tried to pressure the Ukrainians to withdraw their resolution in favour of its proposal, according to a US official and a European diplomat.
US deputy ambassador Dorothy Shea, meanwhile, said multiple previous UN resolutions condemning Russia and demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops “have failed to stop the war,” which “has now dragged on for far too long and at far too terrible a cost to the people in Ukraine and Russia and beyond”.
“What we need is a resolution marking the commitment from all UN member states to bring a durable end to the war,” Ms Shea said.
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Dorothy Shea said the war has ‘dragged on too long’. Pic: Reuters
The world is marking the third anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine as America’s allies try to navigate a new reality as Washington’s stance appears to favour Moscow.
European leaders were dismayed last week when they and Ukraine were left out of preliminary talks on ending the conflict.
Mr Trump has called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator,” falsely accused Kyiv of starting the war and warned that he “better move fast or he is not going to have a country left”.
Mr Zelenskyy responded by saying the US president was living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron is at the White House holding talks with Mr Trump to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.
At the start of the meeting, Mr Trump told reporters Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a potential deal to end the war in the country.
Mr Trump and Mr Macron have been meeting after the pair had earlier joined a call between G7 leaders.
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Trump on Ukraine’s territory: ‘We’ll see’
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who will meet with Mr Trump at the White House on Thursday, appeared virtually and said G7 nations should be ready to “take on more risk”.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was in Kyiv, called Russia’s aggression a war on “our way of life”.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said Europe’s “first priority” is to strengthen Ukraine’s resistance.
She said this includes speeding up the delivery of weapons and increasing investment, announcing a further €3.5bn (about £3bn) in aid for Ukraine.
Friedrich Merz, who is set to become the new German chancellor, has vowed to “create unity” in Europe as it adjusts to the new Trump administration and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Mr Merz’s task will be complicated by the need to form a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats of outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will remain in office for the immediate future.
He has repeatedly pledged not to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, despite its second-place finish but which is under observation by the country’s intelligence agency for suspected right-wing extremism.
Mr Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, which won with 28.5% of the votes, and the Social Democrats have a combined 328 seats in the 630-seat parliament.
The 69-year-old, who put toughening Germany’s immigration laws at the forefront of the election campaign, said he hopes to complete a deal by Easter.
Experts believe this could prove to be a challenging timescale as the rivals try to find common ground over key policies.
Co-leader of the Social Democrats, Lars Klingbeil, indicated a deal with Mr Merz is not a formality.
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The path to power may not be smooth for Merz
He said: “The ball is in Friedrich Merz’s court. Only the course of any talks will show whether a government can be formed.”
With US President Donald Trump back in the White House and tensions rising over how to resolve the war in Ukraine, Mr Merz wants to unify Europe in the face of challenges from the US and Russia.
“I have no illusions at all about what is happening from America,” he told supporters.
“We are under such massive pressure… my absolute priority now is really to create unity in Europe.”
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At a media conference later, he added: “There are three topics we need to talk about. Of course, external and security policy – especially following the statements coming out of Washington.
“It is clear that we as Europeans need to be able to act swiftly. We need to be able to defend ourselves. That is a topic that is a top priority in the next few weeks.”
Mr Merz said he remains “hopeful” of maintaining the transatlantic relationship, but warned if it “is destroyed, it will not only be to the detriment of Europe, it will also be to the detriment of America”.
On the other key issues, he added: “Another important topic is the immigration – that is an area where we have proposals. I suppose the Social Democrats will be prepared to talk to us about this as well.
“The third topic is the economic situation. We have to protect work in the industrial sector in Germany.”
He also earlier used social media to say “Europe stands unwaveringly by Ukraine’s side” and how “we must put Ukraine in a position of strength”.
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