Labour’s smashing victory in the Rutherglen and West Hamilton by-election is just the boost Sir Keir Starmer was hoping for as he heads to his party conference, where he wants to cement his image as a prime minister in waiting.
If repeated at the approaching general election, the 20% swing to Michael Shanks the new MP, would give Labour some 40 seats, returning the party to the dominance it enjoyed before the surge of Scottish nationalism in the past decade.
Even half that total would give Labour a Tartan Wall bolstering the party’s chances of forming a majority government at Westminster rather than a hung parliament.
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2:57
‘We are the party of change’
But, for all Labour’s excitement, it is not a done deal yet. In her introduction to the handbook for the annual Labour conference, which begins in Liverpool this weekend, Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner says “Labour is preparing for power with a long-term plan to give Britain back its future” but she also insists “we’ll take nothing for granted”.
Her boss, Starmer, is more cautious still, telling his party: “We’re heading in the right direction. But now is the time to step up another gear.”
This leaves Labour with two tasks as they gather in Liverpool. They want to prepare for government – by outlining their plans and showing the public that they are a trustworthy and competent team in the centre ground of British politics.
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But they have got to win the next election first, and every word spoken on the banks of the Mersey will be scrutinized as to whether it is likely to attract or repel voters.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (left)
Many Tory MPs, business representatives and lobbyists did not bother to go to the Conservative conference last week in Manchester, sensing the end of an era. There will be many more sponsored stalls, receptions and fringe meetings in Liverpool because independent interests are anticipating a change of government.
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Unless earth-shaking events elsewhere take attention away from the conference, Starmer’s leader’s speech at 2pm on Tuesday afternoon will be the most closely watched hour of his life. He is being auditioned as the likely next prime minister.
Starmer’s popularity lacks behind that of the party
Every focus group, vox pop and survey shows that people have not yet fully warmed to him. What people think of the party leader is a strong indicator of how people will actually vote.
Starmer’s popularity lags behind Labour’s.
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In the post-Tory conference YouGov poll for The Times, Labour is well ahead at 45% voting intention but Starmer rates only 34% as “best prime minister”. Rishi Sunak on 25% is about the same as his party’s 25%.
Word clouds showing what descriptions ordinary people attach to Sunak feature “rich”, “himself” and “money” prominently.
Starmer gets “boring”, “dull”, “untrustworthy” and “weak”. The two leaders have noticed these digs and routinely punch each other’s bruises in their exchanges.
In Liverpool, Starmer will need to be tougher on his opponent than mocking him for being super-wealthy and out of touch.
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0:52
PM’s speech: Three key takeaways
In his leader’s speech last week, Sunak tried to launch himself as the “change” candidate. He disassociated himself from the last five Conservative prime ministers and did a U-turn on the full HS2 rail programme which he, David Cameron and Boris Johnson all previously backed.
Yet until now, the public has been more receptive to charges of “flip-flopping” repeatedly levelled by Tory campaigners against Starmer.
This was at the focus of Sunak’s personal attack on him last week.
“The worst thing about Sir Keir is that he just says whatever he thinks will benefit him the most”, the prime minister told his audience in Manchester. “It doesn’t matter whether he can deliver it, doesn’t matter if it’s true, it doesn’t matter if he said the opposite just a few weeks or months ago.”
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Starmer’s service as a loyal member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet and his shifting policy answers to the shock of Brexit are key exhibits for the prosecution.
Starmer has dealt with the first by expelling Corbyn from Labour and abandoning the Corbynite policy pledges he made to get elected.
Starmer has dodged an obvious trap, but could face problems over Europe
Europe could yet cause problems for him in Liverpool.
Labour has only grudgingly accepted the strict limits he has placed on future ties with the EU and the leadership is fighting off calls from the grassroots for a debate on EU policy at the conference.
Labour has already endorsed Sunak’s proposal to phase out tobacco sales this century, and can easily navigate his second conference idea of reforming A-levels over the next decade.
By accepting Sunak’s abandonment of HS2 because the Tory “wrecking ball” has already done its work, Starmer has dodged the most obvious trap set for him.
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0:57
PM announces launch of ‘Network North’
The Conservatives will not be able to challenge him on how HS2 will be paid for as well as the “Network North” road and rail schemes to which Sunak says he will redirect £36bn of savings.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will keep her iron grip on spending but some in Liverpool will be disappointed by Starmer, yet again falling in line with Tory plans.
Starmer’s speech will have to go beyond ‘if not them, why us?’
To the outrage of Conservative grandees, Labour has one significant advantage this year.
The traditional annual order for conferences is Liberal Democrats first, then Labour, then Conservatives. This autumn, more by accident than design, Labour is going last.
Starmer and his team will have the last word in what is generally expected to be the last conference campaigning season before the election.
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0:53
Labour leader criticises PM for not addressing cost of living crisis
Last week, Sunak avoided talking about housing and the cost of living crisis and failed to engage with any detail with the rail and doctors strikes or how he plans to deliver net zero, “stop the boats” or engineer economic growth.
Labour have the opportunity to deal with all these topics, which top most peoples’ worry lists.
Each day the main conference debates have been termed Mission Plenaries, on the five “missions” which Starmer set at the beginning of the year: sustained growth, safe streets, the NHS, social mobility and green energy.
But Starmer’s speech will need to go beyond “if not them, why us?”
He also has to ridicule Sunak’s bid to escape the Tory record by posing as the true change candidate.
A senior Labour campaigner likened Sunak’s shift to a snake shedding its skin, pointing out that Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss all tried the same trick of “vote for us to keep us in power so we can change everything”.
The former director of Public Prosecutions cannot afford to be “boring”. To seize the moment, he will need to summon more Neil Kinnock-style fury or Tony Blair-style scorn than he has managed so far.
Whether Starmer raises the roof or not, Labour delegates will sober up within 24-hours of leaving Liverpool. Next Thursday, the party faces daunting tests in two by-elections in England in constituencies held by the Conservatives.
In Nadine Dorries’ old seat of Mid Bedfordshire a 19% swing from the Conservatives would do it – the party took Selby & Ainsty this summer with a swing of 23%. But the main opposition parties are fighting each other and could end up splitting the anti-Tory vote.
The other contest in Tamworth, caused by the resignation of Tory whip Chris Pincher, demonstrates the changes in the political landscape that England has undergone since the last time Labour was seriously threatening an incumbent Conservative government – and the difficulty of the challenge facing Starmer and his party.
In 1996 for Sky News I covered another by-election in Tamworth – or South East Staffordshire, as pretty much the same constituency was then called.
The new Labour leader Tony Blair was riding high and Labour captured the seat from the Conservatives with a 22% swing.
Image: Blair speaking at Labour Party conference in 1996
The new MP Brian Jenkins held Tamworth throughout the New Labour years until 2010. Nobody is talking up Labour’s chances of victory in the by-election in Tamworth this time – even though it would take an almost identical swing this time as back then.
Tamworth and surrounding areas voted heavily for Brexit and that changed a lot. In the neighbouring Black Country, Labour now has only three of the 13 seats it held in Blair’s heyday.
Never mind the party conference hot air, Labour victories in either or both of these English by-elections would really show that Sir Keir Starmer has shifted Labour into top gear towards general election victory.
“Return hubs” that would see Britain send failed asylum seekers to another country have been endorsed by the UN’s refugee agency.
There have been reports that Sir Keir Starmer’s government is looking into deporting illegal migrants to the Balkans.
According to The Times, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper met the UN’s high commissioner for refugees last month to discuss the idea.
It would see the government pay countries in the Balkans to take failed asylum seekers – a prospect ministers hope might discourage people from crossing the Channel in small boats.
A total of 9,099 migrants have made that journey so far this year, including more than 700 on Tuesday this week – the highest number on a single day in 2025.
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2:11
One dead in Channel crossing
The UN’s refugee agency has set out how such hubs could work while meeting its legal standards in a document published earlier this week.
It recommended monitoring the hubs to make sure human rights standards are “reliably met”.
The country hosting the return hub would need to grant temporary legal status for migrants, and the country sending the failed asylum seekers would need to support it to make sure there are “adequate accommodation and reception arrangements”.
A UK government source said it was a helpful intervention that could make the legal pathway to some form of return hub model smoother.
It comes after the EU Commission proposed allowing EU members to set up so-called “return hubs” abroad, with member state Italy having already started sending illegal migrants abroad.
It sends people with no right to remain to Italian-run detention centres in Albania, something Sir Keir has taken an interest in since coming to power.
With Reform UK leading Labour in several opinion polls this year, the prime minister has been talking tough on immigration – but the figures around Channel crossings have made for difficult reading.
Lib Dems don’t tend to listen to right-wing podcasts.
But if they did, they may be heartened by some of what they hear.
Take the interview Kemi Badenoch gave to the TRIGGERnometry show in February.
Ten minutes into the episode, one of the hosts recounts a conversation with a Tory MP who said the party lost the last election to the Lib Dems because they went too far to the right.
Everyone laughs.
Then in March, in a conversation with the Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, the Tory leader was asked to describe a Liberal Democrat.
“Somebody who is good at fixing their church roof,” said Ms Badenoch.
She meant it as a negative.
Lib Dems now mention it every time you go near any of them with a TV camera.
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4:12
‘It’s a two-horse race!’
The pitch is clear, the stunts are naff
At times, party figures seem somewhat astonished the Tories don’t view them as more of a threat, given they were beaten by them in swathes of their traditional heartlands last year.
Going forward, the pitch is clear.
Sir Ed Davey wants to replace the Tories as the party of middle England.
Image: Sir Ed rides on a rollercoaster. Pic: PA
One way he’s trying to do that is through somewhat naff and very much twee campaign stunts.
To open this local election race, the Lib Dem leader straddled a hobbyhorse and galloped through a blue fence.
More recently, he’s brandished a sausage, hopped aboard a rollercoaster and planted wildflowers.
Senior Lib Dems say they are “constantly asking” whether this is the correct strategy, especially given the hardship being faced by many in the country.
They maintain it is helping get their message out though, according to the evidence they have.
“I think you can take the issues that matter to voters seriously while not taking yourself too seriously, and I also think it’s a way of engaging people who are turned off by politics,” said Sir Ed.
Image: Sir Ed on a hobby horse during the launch of the party’s local election campaign in the Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
‘What if people don’t want grown-ups?’
In that way, the Lib Dems are fishing in a similar pool of voters to Reform UK, albeit from the other side of the water’s edge.
Indeed, talk to Lib Dem MPs, and they say while some Reform supporters they meet would never vote for a party with the word “liberal” in its name, others are motivated more by generalised anger than any traditional political ideology.
These people, the MPs say, can be persuaded.
But this group also shows a broader risk to the Lib Dem approach.
Put simply, are they simply too nice for the fractured times we live in?
“The Lib Dems want to be the grown-ups in the room,” says Joe Twyman, director of Delta Poll.
“We like to think that the grown-ups in the room will be rewarded… but what if people don’t want grown-ups in the room, what if people want kids shitting on the floor.”
Image: Sir Ed canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury, Shropshire. Pic: PA
A plan that looks different to the status quo
The party’s answer to this is that they are alive to the trap Lib Dems have walked into in the past of adopting a technocratic tone and blandly telling the public every issue is a “bit more complicated” than it seems.
One senior figure says the Lib Dems are trying to do something quite unusual for a progressive centre-left party in making a broader emotional argument about why the public should pick them.
This source says that approach runs through the stunts but also through the focus on care and the party leader’s personal connection to the issue.
Presenting a plan that looks different to the status quo is another way to try to stand apart.
It’s why there has been a focus on attacking Donald Trump and talking up the EU recently, two areas left unoccupied by the main parties.
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1:09
‘A snivelling cretin’: Your response?
The focus on local campaigning
But beyond the national strategy, Lib Dems believe it’s their local campaigning that really reaps rewards.
In the run-up to the last election, several more regional press officers were recruited.
Many stories pumped out by the media office now have a focus on data that can be broken down to a constituency level and given to local news outlets.
Party sources say there has also been a concerted attempt to get away from the cliche of the Lib Dems constantly calling for parliament to be recalled.
“They beat us to it,” said one staffer of the recent recall to debate British Steel.
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1:08
Steel might have been ‘under orders’ from China
‘Gail’s bakery rule’
This focus on the local is helped by the fact many Lib Dem constituencies now look somewhat similar.
That was evidenced by the apparent “Gail’s bakery rule” last year, in which any constituency with a branch of the upmarket pastry purveyor had activists heaped on it.
The similarities have helped the Lib Dems get away from another cliche – that of the somewhat opportunist targeting of different areas with very different messages.
“There is a certain consistency in where we won that helps explain that higher vote retention,” said Lib Dem president Lord Pack.
“Look at leaflets in different constituencies [last year] and they were much more consistent than previous elections… the messages are fundamentally the same in a way that was not always the case in the past.”
Image: Sir Ed in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Cornwall. Pic: PA
A bottom-up campaign machine
New MPs have also been tasked with demonstrating delivery and focusing doggedly on the issues that matter to their constituents.
One Home Counties MP says he wants to be able to send out leaflets by 2027, saying “everyone in this constituency knows someone who has been helped by their local Lib Dem”.
In the run-up to last year’s vote, strategists gave the example of the Lib Dem candidate who was invited to a local ribbon-cutting ceremony in place of the sitting Tory MP as proof of how the party can ingratiate itself into communities.
With that in mind, the aim for these local elections is to pick up councillors in the places the party now has new MPs, allowing them to dig in further and keep building a bottom-up campaign machine.
‘Anyone but Labour or Conservative’
But what of the next general election?
Senior Lib Dems are confident of holding their current 72 seats.
They also point to the fact 20 of their 27 second-place finishes currently have a Conservative MP.
Those will be the main focus, along with the 43 seats in which they finished third.
There’s also an acronym brewing to describe the approach – ABLOC or “Anyone but Labour or Conservative”.
Image: Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch aren’t exactly flying high in the opinion polls
9% swing could make Sir Ed leader of the opposition
The hope is for the political forces to align and Reform UK to continue splitting the Tory vote while unpopularity with the Labour government and Conservative opposition triggers some to jump ship.
A recent pamphlet by Lord Pack showed if the Tories did not make progress against the other parties, just 25 gains from them by the Lib Dems – the equivalent of a 9% swing – would be enough to make Sir Ed leader of the opposition.
What’s more, a majority of these seats would be in the South East and South West, where the party has already picked up big wins.
As for the overall aim of all this, Lord Pack is candid the Lib Dems shouldn’t view a hung parliament as the best way to achieve the big prize of electoral reform because they almost always end badly for the smaller party.
Instead, the Lib Dem president suggests the potential fragmentation of politics could bring electoral reform closer in a more natural way.
“What percentage share of the vote is the most popular party going to get at the next general election, it’s quite plausible that that will be under 30%. Our political system can’t cope with that sort of world,” he said.
Whether Ms Badenoch will still be laughing then remains to be seen.
This is part of a series of local election previews with the five major parties. All five have been invited to take part.
It would be “foolish” to stop engaging with China, the chancellor has said, as Sir Keir Starmer held his first call with Donald Trump since he put 10% tariffs on goods imported from the UK.
Rachel Reeves will hold talks with the US next week amid efforts to establish a trade deal, which the government hopes will take the sting out of the president’s tariffs.
There has been speculation Washington may press the government to limit its dealings with China as part of that deal, having launched a tit-for-tat trade war with its economic rival.
But Ms Reeves told The Daily Telegraph:”China is the second-biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish, to not engage.
“That’s the approach of this government.”
She suggested she would back the fast fashion firm Shein launching an initial public offering (IPO) in the UK, saying the London Stock Exchange and Financial Conduct Authority have “very strict standards” and “we do want to welcome new listings”.
Shein, which was founded in China but is now based in Singapore, has faced several obstacles to its efforts to float, including UK political pressure over alleged supply chain and labour abuses.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump met in February. Pic: PA
‘Productive discussions’
When it comes to a UK-US deal, The Daily Telegraph has reported officials in Washington believe an agreement could be weeks away.
But on Thursday, Mr Trump said he was in “no rush” to reach any deals because of the revenues his new tariffs are generating.
During Sir Keir’s call with the US president on Friday, the two leaders talked about the “ongoing and productive discussions” on trade between the two nations, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
“The prime minister reiterated his commitment to free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest,” Number 10 said.
As well as the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.