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Labour’s smashing victory in the Rutherglen and West Hamilton by-election is just the boost Sir Keir Starmer was hoping for as he heads to his party conference, where he wants to cement his image as a prime minister in waiting. 

It is the first time Labour have taken a seat from the SNP at a Westminster by-election.

If repeated at the approaching general election, the 20% swing to Michael Shanks the new MP, would give Labour some 40 seats, returning the party to the dominance it enjoyed before the surge of Scottish nationalism in the past decade.

Even half that total would give Labour a Tartan Wall bolstering the party’s chances of forming a majority government at Westminster rather than a hung parliament.

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‘We are the party of change’

But, for all Labour’s excitement, it is not a done deal yet. In her introduction to the handbook for the annual Labour conference, which begins in Liverpool this weekend, Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner says “Labour is preparing for power with a long-term plan to give Britain back its future” but she also insists “we’ll take nothing for granted”.

Her boss, Starmer, is more cautious still, telling his party: “We’re heading in the right direction. But now is the time to step up another gear.”

This leaves Labour with two tasks as they gather in Liverpool. They want to prepare for government – by outlining their plans and showing the public that they are a trustworthy and competent team in the centre ground of British politics.

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But they have got to win the next election first, and every word spoken on the banks of the Mersey will be scrutinized as to whether it is likely to attract or repel voters.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (left) at a rally following Scottish Labour's win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023.
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (left)

Many Tory MPs, business representatives and lobbyists did not bother to go to the Conservative conference last week in Manchester, sensing the end of an era. There will be many more sponsored stalls, receptions and fringe meetings in Liverpool because independent interests are anticipating a change of government.

Unless earth-shaking events elsewhere take attention away from the conference, Starmer’s leader’s speech at 2pm on Tuesday afternoon will be the most closely watched hour of his life. He is being auditioned as the likely next prime minister.

Starmer’s popularity lacks behind that of the party

Every focus group, vox pop and survey shows that people have not yet fully warmed to him. What people think of the party leader is a strong indicator of how people will actually vote.

Starmer’s popularity lags behind Labour’s.

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In the post-Tory conference YouGov poll for The Times, Labour is well ahead at 45% voting intention but Starmer rates only 34% as “best prime minister”. Rishi Sunak on 25% is about the same as his party’s 25%.

Word clouds showing what descriptions ordinary people attach to Sunak feature “rich”, “himself” and “money” prominently.

Starmer gets “boring”, “dull”, “untrustworthy” and “weak”. The two leaders have noticed these digs and routinely punch each other’s bruises in their exchanges.

In Liverpool, Starmer will need to be tougher on his opponent than mocking him for being super-wealthy and out of touch.

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PM’s speech: Three key takeaways

In his leader’s speech last week, Sunak tried to launch himself as the “change” candidate. He disassociated himself from the last five Conservative prime ministers and did a U-turn on the full HS2 rail programme which he, David Cameron and Boris Johnson all previously backed.

Yet until now, the public has been more receptive to charges of “flip-flopping” repeatedly levelled by Tory campaigners against Starmer.

This was at the focus of Sunak’s personal attack on him last week.

“The worst thing about Sir Keir is that he just says whatever he thinks will benefit him the most”, the prime minister told his audience in Manchester. “It doesn’t matter whether he can deliver it, doesn’t matter if it’s true, it doesn’t matter if he said the opposite just a few weeks or months ago.”

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Starmer’s service as a loyal member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet and his shifting policy answers to the shock of Brexit are key exhibits for the prosecution.

Starmer has dealt with the first by expelling Corbyn from Labour and abandoning the Corbynite policy pledges he made to get elected.

Starmer has dodged an obvious trap, but could face problems over Europe

Europe could yet cause problems for him in Liverpool.

Labour has only grudgingly accepted the strict limits he has placed on future ties with the EU and the leadership is fighting off calls from the grassroots for a debate on EU policy at the conference.

Labour has already endorsed Sunak’s proposal to phase out tobacco sales this century, and can easily navigate his second conference idea of reforming A-levels over the next decade.

By accepting Sunak’s abandonment of HS2 because the Tory “wrecking ball” has already done its work, Starmer has dodged the most obvious trap set for him.

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PM announces launch of ‘Network North’

The Conservatives will not be able to challenge him on how HS2 will be paid for as well as the “Network North” road and rail schemes to which Sunak says he will redirect £36bn of savings.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will keep her iron grip on spending but some in Liverpool will be disappointed by Starmer, yet again falling in line with Tory plans.

Starmer’s speech will have to go beyond ‘if not them, why us?’

To the outrage of Conservative grandees, Labour has one significant advantage this year.

The traditional annual order for conferences is Liberal Democrats first, then Labour, then Conservatives. This autumn, more by accident than design, Labour is going last.

Starmer and his team will have the last word in what is generally expected to be the last conference campaigning season before the election.

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Labour leader criticises PM for not addressing cost of living crisis

Last week, Sunak avoided talking about housing and the cost of living crisis and failed to engage with any detail with the rail and doctors strikes or how he plans to deliver net zero, “stop the boats” or engineer economic growth.

Labour have the opportunity to deal with all these topics, which top most peoples’ worry lists.

Each day the main conference debates have been termed Mission Plenaries, on the five “missions” which Starmer set at the beginning of the year: sustained growth, safe streets, the NHS, social mobility and green energy.

But Starmer’s speech will need to go beyond “if not them, why us?”

He also has to ridicule Sunak’s bid to escape the Tory record by posing as the true change candidate.

A senior Labour campaigner likened Sunak’s shift to a snake shedding its skin, pointing out that Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss all tried the same trick of “vote for us to keep us in power so we can change everything”.

The former director of Public Prosecutions cannot afford to be “boring”. To seize the moment, he will need to summon more Neil Kinnock-style fury or Tony Blair-style scorn than he has managed so far.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (centre) at a rally following Scottish Labour's win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023. PA Photo. The seat was vacated after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted in a recall petition. Ms Ferrier was kicked out of the SNP for breaching Covid regulations by travelling between London and Glasgow after

Whether Starmer raises the roof or not, Labour delegates will sober up within 24-hours of leaving Liverpool. Next Thursday, the party faces daunting tests in two by-elections in England in constituencies held by the Conservatives.

In Nadine Dorries’ old seat of Mid Bedfordshire a 19% swing from the Conservatives would do it – the party took Selby & Ainsty this summer with a swing of 23%. But the main opposition parties are fighting each other and could end up splitting the anti-Tory vote.

The other contest in Tamworth, caused by the resignation of Tory whip Chris Pincher, demonstrates the changes in the political landscape that England has undergone since the last time Labour was seriously threatening an incumbent Conservative government – and the difficulty of the challenge facing Starmer and his party.

In 1996 for Sky News I covered another by-election in Tamworth – or South East Staffordshire, as pretty much the same constituency was then called.

The new Labour leader Tony Blair was riding high and Labour captured the seat from the Conservatives with a 22% swing.

Blair speaking at Labour Party conference in 1996
Image:
Blair speaking at Labour Party conference in 1996

The new MP Brian Jenkins held Tamworth throughout the New Labour years until 2010. Nobody is talking up Labour’s chances of victory in the by-election in Tamworth this time – even though it would take an almost identical swing this time as back then.

Tamworth and surrounding areas voted heavily for Brexit and that changed a lot. In the neighbouring Black Country, Labour now has only three of the 13 seats it held in Blair’s heyday.

Never mind the party conference hot air, Labour victories in either or both of these English by-elections would really show that Sir Keir Starmer has shifted Labour into top gear towards general election victory.

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EU could fine Elon Musk’s X $1B over illicit content, disinformation

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EU could fine Elon Musk’s X B over illicit content, disinformation

EU could fine Elon Musk’s X B over illicit content, disinformation

European Union regulators are reportedly mulling a $1 billion fine against Elon Musk’s X, taking into account revenue from his other ventures, including Tesla and SpaceX, according to The New York Times.

EU regulators allege that X has violated the Digital Services Act and will use a section of the act to calculate a fine based on revenue that includes other companies Musk controls, according to an April 3 report by the newspaper, which cited four people with knowledge of the plan.

Under the Digital Services Act, which came into law in October 2022 to police social media companies and “prevent illegal and harmful activities online,” companies can be fined up to 6% of global revenue for violations.

A spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, declined to comment on this case to The New York Times but did say it would “continue to enforce our laws fairly and without discrimination toward all companies operating in the EU.”

In a statement, X’s Global Government Affairs team said that if the reports about the EU’s plans are accurate, it “represents an unprecedented act of political censorship and an attack on free speech.”

“X has gone above and beyond to comply with the EU’s Digital Services Act, and we will use every option at our disposal to defend our business, keep our users safe, and protect freedom of speech in Europe,” X’s global government affairs team said.

European Union, Elon Musk

Source: Global Government Affairs

Along with the fine, the EU regulators could reportedly demand product changes at X, with the full scope of any penalties to be announced in the coming months. 

Still, a settlement could be reached if the social media platform agrees to changes that satisfy regulators, according to the Times. 

One of the officials who spoke to the Times also said that X is facing a second investigation alleging the platform’s approach to policing user-generated content has made it a hub of illegal hate speech and disinformation, which could result in more penalties.

X EU investigation ongoing since 2023

The EU investigation began in 2023. A preliminary ruling in July 2024 found X had violated the Digital Services Act by refusing to provide data to outside researchers, provide adequate transparency about advertisers, or verify the authenticity of users who have a verified account.

Related: Musk says he found ‘magic money computers’ printing money ‘out of thin air’

X responded to the ruling with hundreds of points of dispute, and Musk said at the time he was offered a deal, alleging that EU regulators told him if he secretly suppressed certain content, X would escape fines. 

Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner for internal market, said in a July 12 X post in 2024 that there was no secret deal and that X’s team had asked for the “Commission to explain the process for settlement and to clarify our concerns,” and its response was in line with “established regulatory procedures.” 

Musk replied he was looking “forward to a very public battle in court so that the people of Europe can know the truth.”

European Union, Elon Musk

Source: Thierry Breton

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

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Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

US crypto exchange Coinbase has filed with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch futures contracts for Ripple’s XRP token.

“We’re excited to announce that Coinbase Derivatives has filed with the CFTC to self-certify XRP futures — bringing a regulated, capital-efficient way to gain exposure to one of the most liquid digital assets,” stated Coinbase Institutional on April 3. 

The firm added that it anticipates the contract going live on April 21.

According to the certification filing, the XRP (XRP) futures contract will be a monthly cash-settled and margined contract trading under the symbol XRL.

The contract tracks XRP’s price and is settled in US dollars. Each contract represents 10,000 XRP, currently worth about $20,000 at $2 per token.

Contracts can be traded for the current month and two months ahead, and trading will be paused as a safety measure if spot XRP prices move more than 10% in an hour. 

“The exchange has spoken with FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) and market participants who support the decision to launch a XRP contract,” the firm stated. 

Coinbase is not the first to launch XRP futures in the United States. In March, Chicago-based crypto exchange Bitnomial announced the launch of the “first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures in the US.” 

XRP futures trading is available on many of the world’s leading centralized crypto exchanges, such as Binance, OKX, Bybit and BitMEX. 

Funding rates remain negative

In late March, Cointelegraph reported that XRP derivatives’ funding rates had flipped negative as investor sentiment turned bearish. 

Related: XRP funding rate flips negative — Will smart traders flip long or short?

Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets that help keep the futures price aligned with the spot price. Positive funding rates mean that long traders (buyers) pay short traders, while negative funding rates mean short traders (sellers) pay long traders. 

When funding rates go negative, it means short traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions, indicating strong conviction from bearish derivatives traders. 

XRP funding rates remained negative on major derivatives exchanges as of April 4, according to CoinGlass. 

Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

XRP OI-weighted funding rates. Source: CoinGlass

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao will begin advising the Kyrgyz Republic on blockchain and crypto-related regulation and tech after signing a memorandum of understanding with the country’s foreign investment agency.

“I officially and unofficially advise a few governments on their crypto regulatory frameworks and blockchain solutions for gov efficiency, expanding blockchain to more than trading,” the crypto entrepreneur said in an April 3 X post, adding that he finds this work “extremely meaningful.”

His comments came in response to an earlier X post from Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Zhaparov announcing that Kyrgyzstan’s National Investment Agency (NIA) had signed a memorandum with CZ to provide technical expertise and consulting services for the Central Asian country.

The NIA is responsible for promoting foreign investments and assisting international companies in identifying business opportunities within the country.

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao to advise Kyrgyzstan on blockchain tech

Source: Changpeng Zhao

“This cooperation marks an important step towards strengthening technological infrastructure, implementing innovative solutions, and preparing highly qualified specialists in blockchain technologies, virtual asset management, and cybersecurity,” Zhaparov said.

The Kyrgyzstan president added: “such initiatives are crucial for the sustainable growth of the economy and the security of virtual assets, ultimately generating new opportunities for businesses and society as a whole.”

Kyrgyzstan, which officially changed its name from the Republic of Kyrgyzstan to the Kyrgyz Republic in 1993, is a mountainous, land-locked country.

It is considered well-suited for crypto mining operations due to its abundant renewable energy resources, much of which is underutilized.

Over 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s total energy supply comes from hydroelectric power plants, but only 10% of the country’s potential hydropower has been developed, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.

CZ has met with several other state officials in Asia

Malaysia also recently tapped CZ for guidance on crypto-related matters, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim meeting him personally in January.

CZ has also met with officials in the UAE and Bitcoin-stacking country Bhutan — however, it isn’t clear what those meetings entailed.

Related: Is Bitcoin’s future in circular economies or national reserves?

CZ’s latest pursuits come a little over six months after he was released from a four-month prison sentence in the US for violating several anti-money laundering laws.

Since being released, CZ has made investments in blockchain tech, artificial intelligence and biotechnology companies.

CZ also recently donated 1,000 BNB (BNB) — worth almost $600,000 — to support earthquake relief efforts in Thailand and Myanmar after the natural disaster in late April.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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