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Labour’s smashing victory in the Rutherglen and West Hamilton by-election is just the boost Sir Keir Starmer was hoping for as he heads to his party conference, where he wants to cement his image as a prime minister in waiting. 

It is the first time Labour have taken a seat from the SNP at a Westminster by-election.

If repeated at the approaching general election, the 20% swing to Michael Shanks the new MP, would give Labour some 40 seats, returning the party to the dominance it enjoyed before the surge of Scottish nationalism in the past decade.

Even half that total would give Labour a Tartan Wall bolstering the party’s chances of forming a majority government at Westminster rather than a hung parliament.

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‘We are the party of change’

But, for all Labour’s excitement, it is not a done deal yet. In her introduction to the handbook for the annual Labour conference, which begins in Liverpool this weekend, Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner says “Labour is preparing for power with a long-term plan to give Britain back its future” but she also insists “we’ll take nothing for granted”.

Her boss, Starmer, is more cautious still, telling his party: “We’re heading in the right direction. But now is the time to step up another gear.”

This leaves Labour with two tasks as they gather in Liverpool. They want to prepare for government – by outlining their plans and showing the public that they are a trustworthy and competent team in the centre ground of British politics.

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But they have got to win the next election first, and every word spoken on the banks of the Mersey will be scrutinized as to whether it is likely to attract or repel voters.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (left) at a rally following Scottish Labour's win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023.
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Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (centre) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (left)

Many Tory MPs, business representatives and lobbyists did not bother to go to the Conservative conference last week in Manchester, sensing the end of an era. There will be many more sponsored stalls, receptions and fringe meetings in Liverpool because independent interests are anticipating a change of government.

Unless earth-shaking events elsewhere take attention away from the conference, Starmer’s leader’s speech at 2pm on Tuesday afternoon will be the most closely watched hour of his life. He is being auditioned as the likely next prime minister.

Starmer’s popularity lacks behind that of the party

Every focus group, vox pop and survey shows that people have not yet fully warmed to him. What people think of the party leader is a strong indicator of how people will actually vote.

Starmer’s popularity lags behind Labour’s.

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In the post-Tory conference YouGov poll for The Times, Labour is well ahead at 45% voting intention but Starmer rates only 34% as “best prime minister”. Rishi Sunak on 25% is about the same as his party’s 25%.

Word clouds showing what descriptions ordinary people attach to Sunak feature “rich”, “himself” and “money” prominently.

Starmer gets “boring”, “dull”, “untrustworthy” and “weak”. The two leaders have noticed these digs and routinely punch each other’s bruises in their exchanges.

In Liverpool, Starmer will need to be tougher on his opponent than mocking him for being super-wealthy and out of touch.

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PM’s speech: Three key takeaways

In his leader’s speech last week, Sunak tried to launch himself as the “change” candidate. He disassociated himself from the last five Conservative prime ministers and did a U-turn on the full HS2 rail programme which he, David Cameron and Boris Johnson all previously backed.

Yet until now, the public has been more receptive to charges of “flip-flopping” repeatedly levelled by Tory campaigners against Starmer.

This was at the focus of Sunak’s personal attack on him last week.

“The worst thing about Sir Keir is that he just says whatever he thinks will benefit him the most”, the prime minister told his audience in Manchester. “It doesn’t matter whether he can deliver it, doesn’t matter if it’s true, it doesn’t matter if he said the opposite just a few weeks or months ago.”

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Starmer’s service as a loyal member of Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet and his shifting policy answers to the shock of Brexit are key exhibits for the prosecution.

Starmer has dealt with the first by expelling Corbyn from Labour and abandoning the Corbynite policy pledges he made to get elected.

Starmer has dodged an obvious trap, but could face problems over Europe

Europe could yet cause problems for him in Liverpool.

Labour has only grudgingly accepted the strict limits he has placed on future ties with the EU and the leadership is fighting off calls from the grassroots for a debate on EU policy at the conference.

Labour has already endorsed Sunak’s proposal to phase out tobacco sales this century, and can easily navigate his second conference idea of reforming A-levels over the next decade.

By accepting Sunak’s abandonment of HS2 because the Tory “wrecking ball” has already done its work, Starmer has dodged the most obvious trap set for him.

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PM announces launch of ‘Network North’

The Conservatives will not be able to challenge him on how HS2 will be paid for as well as the “Network North” road and rail schemes to which Sunak says he will redirect £36bn of savings.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will keep her iron grip on spending but some in Liverpool will be disappointed by Starmer, yet again falling in line with Tory plans.

Starmer’s speech will have to go beyond ‘if not them, why us?’

To the outrage of Conservative grandees, Labour has one significant advantage this year.

The traditional annual order for conferences is Liberal Democrats first, then Labour, then Conservatives. This autumn, more by accident than design, Labour is going last.

Starmer and his team will have the last word in what is generally expected to be the last conference campaigning season before the election.

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Labour leader criticises PM for not addressing cost of living crisis

Last week, Sunak avoided talking about housing and the cost of living crisis and failed to engage with any detail with the rail and doctors strikes or how he plans to deliver net zero, “stop the boats” or engineer economic growth.

Labour have the opportunity to deal with all these topics, which top most peoples’ worry lists.

Each day the main conference debates have been termed Mission Plenaries, on the five “missions” which Starmer set at the beginning of the year: sustained growth, safe streets, the NHS, social mobility and green energy.

But Starmer’s speech will need to go beyond “if not them, why us?”

He also has to ridicule Sunak’s bid to escape the Tory record by posing as the true change candidate.

A senior Labour campaigner likened Sunak’s shift to a snake shedding its skin, pointing out that Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss all tried the same trick of “vote for us to keep us in power so we can change everything”.

The former director of Public Prosecutions cannot afford to be “boring”. To seize the moment, he will need to summon more Neil Kinnock-style fury or Tony Blair-style scorn than he has managed so far.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (right) and the new Labour MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West Michael Shanks (centre) at a rally following Scottish Labour's win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. Picture date: Friday October 6, 2023. PA Photo. The seat was vacated after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was ousted in a recall petition. Ms Ferrier was kicked out of the SNP for breaching Covid regulations by travelling between London and Glasgow after

Whether Starmer raises the roof or not, Labour delegates will sober up within 24-hours of leaving Liverpool. Next Thursday, the party faces daunting tests in two by-elections in England in constituencies held by the Conservatives.

In Nadine Dorries’ old seat of Mid Bedfordshire a 19% swing from the Conservatives would do it – the party took Selby & Ainsty this summer with a swing of 23%. But the main opposition parties are fighting each other and could end up splitting the anti-Tory vote.

The other contest in Tamworth, caused by the resignation of Tory whip Chris Pincher, demonstrates the changes in the political landscape that England has undergone since the last time Labour was seriously threatening an incumbent Conservative government – and the difficulty of the challenge facing Starmer and his party.

In 1996 for Sky News I covered another by-election in Tamworth – or South East Staffordshire, as pretty much the same constituency was then called.

The new Labour leader Tony Blair was riding high and Labour captured the seat from the Conservatives with a 22% swing.

Blair speaking at Labour Party conference in 1996
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Blair speaking at Labour Party conference in 1996

The new MP Brian Jenkins held Tamworth throughout the New Labour years until 2010. Nobody is talking up Labour’s chances of victory in the by-election in Tamworth this time – even though it would take an almost identical swing this time as back then.

Tamworth and surrounding areas voted heavily for Brexit and that changed a lot. In the neighbouring Black Country, Labour now has only three of the 13 seats it held in Blair’s heyday.

Never mind the party conference hot air, Labour victories in either or both of these English by-elections would really show that Sir Keir Starmer has shifted Labour into top gear towards general election victory.

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Indian court sentences 14 to life in Bitcoin extortion case

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Indian court sentences 14 to life in Bitcoin extortion case

Indian court sentences 14 to life in Bitcoin extortion case

A former BJP legislator and 11 police officials have been convicted for the 2018 abduction of a Surat businessman in a plot to seize over 750 Bitcoin.

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Lib Dems eye Labour-held cities as they target ‘seats not votes’

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Lib Dems eye Labour-held cities as they target 'seats not votes'

They demolished most of the “blue wall” at the general election, and now the Lib Dems are eyeing up Labour voters.

Strategists see an opportunity in younger people who, over the course of this parliament, may be priced out of cities and into commuter belt areas as they seek to get on the housing ladder or start a family.

Insiders say the plan is to focus more on the cost of living to shift the party’s appeal beyond the traditional southern heartlands.

“There’s a key opportunity to target people who were 30 at the last election who over the next five years might find themselves moving out of London, to areas like Surrey, Guildford,” a senior party source told Sky News.

“We also need to be better at making a case for a liberal voice in urban areas. We have not told enough of a story on the cost of living.

“We need a liberal voice back in the cities – areas like Liverpool, where there is strong support at a council level that we can use as a base to build on.”

Liverpool is a traditional Labour heartland but in January lost its first local authority by-election there in 27 years to the Lib Dems.

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Carl Cashman, the leader of the Lib Dems on the city council, says it’s a result that shows the potential to make gains in areas where the party came third and fourth at the general election.

Carl Cashman is the leader of the Liverpool Liberal Democrats
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Carl Cashman is the leader of the Liverpool Liberal Democrats

“One of the cases I have been making to the national party is that Liverpool should be a number one target.

“We are almost at the end of the road when it comes to the Conservatives, so we need to start looking at areas like Liverpool,” he said, adding that Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle could also be ripe for the taking.

However, the party faces a challenge of making a case for liberalism against the rising tide of populism.

Sir Ed Davey, the party leader, is trying to position himself as the only politician who is not afraid of holding Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to account.

He has recently unveiled a plan to cut energy bills by changing how renewable projects are paid for and says he will boycott Donald Trump’s state dinner. It is these green, internationalist policies that insiders hope can hoover up support of remaining Tory moderates unhappy with the direction of Kemi Badenoch’s party and progressive voters who think Labour is more of the same.

However, strategists admit it is difficult to cut through on these issues in a changing media landscape, “when you’re either viral or you’re not”.

‘Silly stunts’ here to stay

Farage has no such problem, which Davey has blamed on a national media weighted too heavily in favour of the Reform UK leader, given the size of his party (he has just four MPs compared to the Liberal Democrats’ 72).

But the two parties have very different media strategies. This week, on the same day Farage held a Trump-style press conference to announce his immigration deportation plans, with a Q&A for journalists after, the Liberal Democrat leader went to pick strawberries in Somerset to highlight the plight of farmers facing increased inheritance tax.

Sir Ed Davey takes part in strawberry picking with Tessa Munt, the MP for Wells & Mendip Hills. Pic: PA
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Sir Ed Davey takes part in strawberry picking with Tessa Munt, the MP for Wells & Mendip Hills. Pic: PA

Some Lib Dems have questioned whether the “silly stunts” that proved successful during the general election are past their shelf life, but strategists say there will be no fundamental change to that, insisting Sir Ed is the “genuine nice guy” he comes across as and that offers something different.

The Lib Dems ultimately see their strength as lying not in the “airwaves war” but the “ground war” – building support on the doorstep at a local level and then turning that into seats.

“Our strategy is seats, not votes. Theirs is votes, not seats,” said the party source, suggesting Farage’s divisiveness might backfire under a first past the post system where people typically vote against the party they disklike the most.

“The next election won’t be about who is saying the meanest things.”

‘Don’t underestimate us’

There is broad support within the party behind that strategy. Cllr Cashman said a greater use of social media could help attract a younger demographic, along with putting forward “really fundamental, powerful liberal ideas” on issues such as housing.

But he said Davey is “never going to do the controversial things Farage does”.

“The way we reach people, the traditional campaigning, is what makes us strong. Just because we are not always on the airwaves, do not underestimate us.”

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Pic: PA
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Pic: PA

For Liberal Democrat peer and pollster Dr Mark Pack, there are reasons to be confident. On Friday, the party won a local council by-election in Camden, north London – “Sir Keir Starmer’s backyard” – with a swing from Labour to the Lib Dems of 19%.

It is these statistics that the party is far more focused on than national vote share – with Labour’s misfortunes opening an opportunity to strategically target areas where voters are more likely to switch.

“One of the lessons we have learned from the past is that riding high in opinion polls doesn’t translate into seats.

“We are really focused on winning seats with the system in front of us. There is a route to success by concentrating on and expanding on what we have been good at.”

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Tories call for investigation into Angela Rayner over her tax affairs

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Tories call for investigation into Angela Rayner over her tax affairs

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner should face an ethics inquiry over her tax affairs, the Conservatives have said.

It comes after The Daily Telegraph claimed Ms Rayner, who is also housing secretary, avoided £40,000 in stamp duty on a second home in East Sussex by removing her name from the deeds of another property in Greater Manchester.

Stamp duty is a tax paid in England and Northern Ireland when someone buys a property over a certain price.

The newspaper also claimed Ms Rayner previously suggested the Greater Manchester home remained her primary residence, saving around £2,000 in council tax on her grace and favour home in central London.

Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake has written to the independent adviser on ministerial standards, Sir Laurie Magnus, requesting he investigate whether Ms Rayner broke ministerial rules.

In a letter to Sir Laurie, Mr Hollinrake described Ms Rayner’s arrangements as “hypocritical tax avoidance, by a minister who supports higher taxes on family homes, high-value homes and second homes”.

As housing secretary, Ms Rayner is responsible for overseeing council tax and housing policy.

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Read more from Sky News:
Lib Dems eye Labour-held cities as they target ‘seats not votes’
Three arrests in Epping ahead of more protests

Mr Hollinrake said the statements she had given on her residency were “contradictory”, but conceded she had broken no laws.

A spokesperson for Ms Rayner has said she “paid the correct duty” on the purchase “entirely properly” – and “any suggestion otherwise is entirely without basis”.

A Cabinet Office spokesman added that Ms Rayner “has followed advice on the allocation of her official residence at all times”.

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