
Inside CFB’s Wild Week 6: A chaotic Red River and an epic Miami collapse
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David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 8, 2023, 12:23 AM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables wasn’t worried about all the pomp and pageantry, ebbs and flows, big plays and fried, well, everything, in this year’s Red River Rivalry. Instead, he told his team to “embrace the chaos.”
Chaos was everywhere Saturday.
Quinn Ewers threw picks on two of his first six passes, then completed 19 straight.
Oklahoma’s special teams unraveled in spectacular fashion.
The Sooners’ defensive front engineered havoc at the line of scrimmage.
Dillon Gabriel threw for 285 yards, ran for 113 and looked as much a magician as a quarterback.
There were seven lead changes and three ties.
And in the most chaotic moment, when Texas grabbed a lead on a 47-yard field goal with 1:17 to play, Venables’ team was cool as a cucumber. (Albeit a fried cucumber covered in chocolate and powdered sugar, we assume.)
It was the type of game where, when it’s over, you just want to drive the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile out into the middle of the desert, play the bongos naked and ponder whether time is a human construct or simply the nature of a simulated universe that we’re all living in. Or, you know, whatever Matthew McConaughey has planned for the rest of the night.
hats off @TexasFootball @OU_Football pic.twitter.com/PgNRK0Y0Vx
— Matthew McConaughey (@McConaughey) October 7, 2023
Gabriel took his team 75 yards on five plays in just 1:02, dodging pressure in his face on one last heave into the back of the end zone to Nic Anderson for a game-winning touchdown in an absolutely epic send-off to the Big 12 — or was it an early welcome to the SEC? — at the Cotton Bowl.
A year ago, Oklahoma was annihilated, embarrassed and overwhelmed in a 49-0 loss to Texas.
On Saturday, the Sooners moved to 6-0 on the season, and delivered a devastating blow to Texas’ immense hopes for 2023.
Here’s the part where we make the joke about Texas disappointing again. You know the drill. Nearly every year, we all get excited that Texas is back, even if, in the back of our minds, we’re certain that return to the national conversation will be short-lived.
Every year we embrace its return out of some sense of loyalty or nostalgia, eager to recall a simpler time, only to spend some sad October Saturday doubled over in pain, sobbing and begging God’s forgiveness for dedicating ourselves to this wretched abomination of disparate parts that was never intended to be consumed by the masses.
1:44
Dillon Gabriel shines as Oklahoma picks up thrilling win over Texas
After Texas takes the lead late, Dillon Gabriel comes up huge on the final drive, giving Oklahoma the Red River Rivalry win.
Basically, Texas is the McRib of college football.
And yet, that doesn’t feel right this time around. This wasn’t the usual embarrassment of losing to Kansas or blowing a 21-point fourth-quarter lead or texting a disgraced Ohio State assistant “OK, cool. Hook ’em” or “Horns Down” chants or pet monkeys hell-bent on attacking innocent trick-or-treaters. This was a loss, but somehow felt like a step forward — a game in which Texas proved worthy of the hype, just a little less explosive than the Sooners.
On the Crimson side of the Cotton Bowl, Oklahoma had its own share of questions to answer. Venables took over a program that, if it wasn’t at the true precipice of college football’s elite, it was certainly close. Then the Sooners went 6-7 in Year 1, Gabriel missed his first Red River game and the whispers of the Sooners’ step backwards as they prepared for a 2024 move to the SEC grew from whispers to a low grumble.
But this year was going well. Oklahoma won its first five games, all by at least two touchdowns, but all against entirely pedestrian competition. Saturday was a true test, one filled with emotion and pressure and, yes, chaos.
Well, Venables eats chaos for breakfast. (Also, Cookie Crisp.)
There’s a script where Texas won Saturday, where Oklahoma’s missteps on special teams and Ewers’ late heroics coalesced into a dramatic victory in which the masses really would’ve argued, preached, believed that Texas was, indeed, back.
There’s another script, though, where those special teams struggles never materialized, where Oklahoma cashed in with a TD on that long drive before the half, where all the things that went against them went the other way and it was a Sooners blowout.
Neither ended up true, and that’s good, because this game was the type of chaos this season needed.
Texas needed to take a punch — maybe five or six — and show it was tough enough to keep getting off the mat. It did, even in a losing effort.
Oklahoma needed to make a few mistakes to show that this team had grown from the immature, inconsistent, unreliable group that lost seven games a year ago. Indeed, the Sooners showed they had not just grown, but had internalized those tough lessons and emerged as something more than just talented or experienced or, well, good.
They’re survivors, and chaos feels just like home for a team like that.
Canes endure epic collapse
You might’ve figured at kickoff nothing could get uglier than the Hurricanes’ uniforms, which looked like someone spilled a few shades of off-brand Mountain Dew flavors onto black jerseys, but you’d have been wrong.
Things got much, much, much uglier for Miami.
It was bad enough that the Canes’ offense flubbed its way through three quarters of football, with QB Tyler Van Dyke being picked off three times, including once in the end zone, which was part of five total turnovers in the game for the Hurricanes.
Still, Miami’s stout D kept things close — Georgia Tech had just 61 yards in the first half — and a Henry Parrish TD run and a 39-yard field goal put the Canes up 20-17 late in the fourth quarter.
That’s how it should’ve ended.
Miami ran more than five minutes off the clock, with 10 plays and 52 yards down to the Georgia Tech 30 with just over 30 seconds to play. All the Hurricanes had to do was take a knee.
Instead, they handed off the ball to Don Chaney Jr., who promptly fumbled. Georgia Tech recovered at its own 26 — but still trailed by 3 with just 25 seconds left.
That’s how it should’ve ended, too. But it didn’t.
Miami had Haynes King backed up on a second-and-10, a last-chance heave all that was left in the Yellow Jackets’ playbook. And King said afterward he knew the heave was going for six as soon as it left his hand.
His throw went over the top of the Miami D — how? Please, Miami, explain how this happens? — and found Christian Leary, who finished off a 44-yard completion with a game-winning touchdown.
0:53
Miami’s coaching blunder leads to epic Georgia Tech comeback
Miami’s choice to run the ball leads to a crucial fumble, which Georgia Tech recovers and later completes the miracle comeback.
Saturday marked the 108th anniversary of Georgia Tech’s 222-0 win over Cumberland, which stands as, technically, the worst loss in college football history. But that game had nothing on what the Yellow Jackets delivered in Miami Gardens on Saturday night. They didn’t win by 222, but this was so, so, so much more painful.
How bad was it?
Pitbull has been downgraded from Mr. Worldwide to Mr. Corner of 36th and South near the IHOP.
Traffic on A1A in South Beach is just a bunch of Chevy Cavaliers.
The pool at The Clevelander had to be evacuated because of a bathroom incident.
There are losses. There are bad losses. There are losses that haunt a coach on his deathbed. And then about 100 miles past that is how Miami lost Saturday.
Bama’s back, baby
Alabama‘s offense wasn’t exactly clicking on all cylinders on Saturday against Texas A&M, but the Crimson Tide clearly have their QB.
Jalen Milroe threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns as Alabama dumped the Aggies 26-20. Since being benched against USF in Week 3, Milroe is completing 73% of his passes, averaging 10.8 yards per pass, with six touchdowns and two turnovers.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is, Alabama couldn’t run the ball at all. No, seriously, the Tide had minus-13 yards rushing in the first half. Nick Saban ran for more yards than his offense did before the break. By game’s end, Alabama had upped its output to a whopping 23 yards, which marked the third-lowest total of Saban’s tenure in Tuscaloosa, with both previous instances coming against LSU (2007 and 2021).
Still, it was enough to carry the Tide past an Aggies team that struggled in the red zone, settling for chip-shot field goals in the first quarter and in a late comeback attempt in the fourth.
A&M’s veteran QB Max Johnson, who missed his kids’ JV soccer game for this, completed 14 of 25 passes but threw a costly interception and was flagged for intentional grounding in the end zone, resulting in a safety. In his 27th year of college football, those were frustrating mistakes, but in fairness, it’s hard to play football with so many sets of keys in your cargo shorts, and he did remind all of his teammates to use the bathroom before getting on the bus after the game, which was helpful.
Buffs back in win column
Colorado picked up win No. 4 on the season Saturday night, officially surpassing their preseason Vegas total.
Regardless, the Buffaloes nearly blew a late 24-17 lead as Arizona State‘s Trenton Bourguet engineered a 13-play, 94-yard drive to tie the game with a touchdown with just 50 seconds left to play. But this is Colorado in 2023, and there’s always a bit more drama in store.
Shedeur Sanders completed his next pass for 43 yards to set up the game-winning field goal.
After the game, Coach Prime donned an oversized sombrero and Groucho Marx glasses for his on-field interview, said he was furious with several innocuous quotes from Kenny Dillingham, ranked all five of his sons plus every other relative dating back six generations and inked his entire team to a new NIL deal with NASA, whereby each team gets its own rocket ship.
Cards, ACC keep rolling
Break up the ACC! Wait, no, don’t break it up. Forget what we said, FSU board of trustees. It’s just a figure of speech.
Let’s rephrase: How about the ACC?
Six weeks into the season, a league that spent much of the summer fending off rumors of its demise now has a reasonable claim as the country’s best, with three teams still undefeated, including Louisville, which pulled off a stunner against Notre Dame on Saturday.
Jawhar Jordan ran for 143 yards and two touchdowns, Jamari Thrash hauled in eight catches, including a TD, and the Louisville defense continued to haunt the dreams of Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman, who was picked off three times in the Cardinals’ 33-20 win. Louisville is now 6-0 in Jeff Brohm’s first season as head coach, and with a manageable schedule the rest of the way, can rightly clam dark horse status in the playoff race.
Louisville also snapped Notre Dame’s 30-game regular-season winning streak against the ACC, which dated back to 2017 — which might have left the conference without something to be incredibly embarrassed by, but thankfully Miami stepped up to fill that void.
Meanwhile, Florida State kept chugging along in Week 6, thumping Virginia Tech 39-17, finally getting its ground game going behind Trey Benson, who ran for 200 yards and two touchdowns.
And in Chapel Hill, Tez Walker finally saw the field after the NCAA realized that every decision it’s ever made is wrong, and he helped spark a brilliant performance from QB Drake Maye, who threw for 442 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-7 win over the Syracuse Orange.
Maye had no trouble with Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone — ah, we mean Rocky Long’s 3-3-5 — completing passes to 11 different players.
Mack Brown, the country’s oldest head coach, is now 5-0, continuing a terrific 2023 for the Boomer generation, along with “The Golden Bachelor” and Lou Holtz living rent free in Ryan Day’s head (though, admittedly, also overpaying for a condo in Boca). Next up for North Carolina is the undefeated Miami Hurric– oh, no. Oh, we’re now being told to temper the ACC excitement as Miami is proving why the league is not allowed to have nice things.
Bowers keys Dawgs’ dominance
Well, all that talk about whether Georgia had another gear can be relegated to the list of “things that happened in September we’ll completely deny moving forward,” alongside the Cubs playoff chase, all Taylor Swift/NFL commentary and that alien corpse in Mexico that might or might not have been made from cake.
In what was billed as a battle between undefeated SEC teams, the Bulldogs looked the part and Kentucky looked utterly overwhelmed. Carson Beck threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns, Brock Bowers had seven catches for 132 yards, and Georgia’s D held Kentucky’s explosive run game to 55 yards in the 51-13 win — the Bulldogs’ first point-spread cover of the season.
But there is still one serious concern for Georgia.
Kirby Smart says he doesn’t know who Miley Cyrus is.
— Seth Emerson (@SethWEmerson) October 8, 2023
This is entirely believable. Has Kirby Smart nodded his head like yeah when “Party in the USA” plays during a TV timeout at Sanford Stadium? Sure. But does he understand the context of any of that? Absolutely not. The man has more important things to do. Though, we’re willing to wager he has Billy Ray Cyrus’ “Some Gave All” on cassette in his truck right now.
LSU wins a shootout
Jayden Daniels ran for 134 yards and a touchdown, threw for more than 12 yards per pass and three more TDs, and LSU still had to sweat out its Week 6 game vs. Missouri.
Such is life with the SEC’s most exasperating defense.
A week after LSU allowed Ole Miss to circumnavigate the globe on offense, the Tigers looked nearly as inept against Brady Cook and the, um, other Tigers.
Cook threw for 411 yards — including 149 to Luther Burden III — and Missouri led 22-10 at one point, but Cook’s streak of 365 straight pass attempts without an interception was snapped on a ridiculously athletic grab by Harold Perkins Jr. in the second quarter. Cook also threw a pick-six at the game’s end, and Perkins later foiled Lex Luthor’s scheme to rob Fort Knox.
0:40
Harold Perkins Jr. leaps up and picks off Brady Cook for an LSU INT
Brady Cook’s SEC-record 366 pass attempts without an interception comes to an end at the hands of LSU’s Harold Perkins Jr.
If you’re counting — and, frankly, we hope you have access to a quantum computer if you are — LSU has allowed 94 points and 1,233 yards in its past two games. Of course, it has also accounted for 98 points and 1,170 yards of offense.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, LSU games have now gone over the betting point total 10 straight times and, according to Gov. Kim Reynolds, all Bayou Bengals games will come with an explicit content warning when shown in Iowa.
Where’s _hi_ State’s O?
If Week 5 was the moment we were all forced to ask whether Georgia was the elite team we’d come to expect in 2023, Week 6 raised the same questions about Ohio State.
Yes, the Buckeyes ultimately cruised past Maryland 37-17 by scoring the game’s final 27 points, but with TreVeyon Henderson out and the run game scuffling, there were more than a few moments Saturday when Ohio State’s offense, which looked as explosive as any in the country on paper, appeared woefully short of weapons.
Of course, one of those weapons was Marvin Harrison Jr., which is like saying you’re short on cash aside from that trillion-dollar bill in your back pocket.
For the game, Ohio State averaged 1.9 yards per rush. (That’s bad.)
Harrison, on the other hand, averaged 20.4 yards per catch. (That’s good.)
Kyle McCord targeted Harrison 15 times — more than half of his 29 throws — for eight catches and 163 yards. The rest of the offense, total, managed just 219 yards on 47 plays.
It’s entirely possible we’ve yet to see anything close to the full artillery at Ohio State. Henderson’s health matters, and the ground game will have better days. It may be Ohio vs. the world, but it certainly doesn’t have to be Harrison doing all the fighting.
But in this year’s Big Ten, there’s not much margin for error, and Ohio State’s offense — 23 points vs. woeful Indiana, 17 vs. a strong Notre Dame — needs to find a new gear if it’s going to survive the remainder of a season that still features dates with Penn State, at Wisconsin and at the Big House.
Under-the-radar game of the week
The Rhode Island Governor’s Cup was on the line Saturday, as URI faced off against Brown.
Now, you might ask how it’s possible to play a football game in a state that’s only 94 yards wide. Luckily, kickoff was at low tide.
The two teams traded scores well into the third quarter, highlighted by a 50-yard receiving TD by the Rams’ Kahtero Summers and a 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Rhode Island’s Randy Jordan.
0:52
Rhode Island returns kick 95 yards to the house
Randy Jordan returns the kickoff 95 yards for a URI touchdown, giving Rhode Island the lead.
Brown kept hanging around, however, and was driving into URI territory with under a minute to play, but Jake Willcox threw his second interception of the day to seal Rhode Island’s win and secure the Governor’s Cup, which, of course, is just a bowl of chowder.
Under-the-radar play of the week
We like to celebrate when big guys do something ridiculously athletic, and what happened at the end of Eastern Michigan‘s 24-10 win over Ball State wasn’t exactly that. But it was entertaining.
On fourth-and-21, Ball State’s QB Layne Hatcher completed a pass to Marquez Cooper, who was immediately thumped by EMU’s Bennett Walker and coughed up the catch. The ball bounced straight out of Cooper’s grasp and flew backward, into the waiting hands of EMU’s 280-pound defensive lineman Tim Grant-Randall.
0:23
The fumble recovery from Eastern Michigan is must see
On 4th-and-21, Ball State’s Marquez Cooper has the ball bounce out of his hands and into the grasp of Eastern Michigan’s Layne Hatcher for a wild fumble recovery.
Now, we’ll give credit to Grant-Randall for holding on to the football which, frankly, mostly caught him. But what we can’t abide is him coming to his senses after running 5 yards in the wrong direction. Grant-Randall, likely surprised to have the ball in his hands to begin with, stared ahead of him and saw nothing but green to the end zone. The wrong end zone, of course, but an end zone nonetheless. He was smart enough to quickly stop his momentum and hit the turf to effectively end the game, but we so much would’ve preferred he enthusiastically sprinted into Ball State’s end zone instead.
Somewhere, Jim Marshall is shaking his head, knowing how much better this could’ve been.
Rebels pull away late
Ole Miss scored the final 10 points of the game against Arkansas on Saturday to finish out a 27-20 win that keeps the Rebels in the mix in the SEC West.
Meanwhile, the Arkansas offense continued to struggle, leading to yet more complaints directed at offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Last week, Enos responded directly to many of his critics. This week, he’s asked we share an open letter with all Razorbacks fans instead.
Dear Hogs Nation,
Due to the incredibly large number of emails I’ve received, I’ve chosen to address you as a group rather than my usual approach of replying to each of you individually. Don’t agree with that decision? Well, tell me what you would’ve done? Nothing? That’s what I thought.
Anyway, I have become aware that many of you are dissatisfied with our offensive production once again. Perhaps you noticed that we only had 36 yards rushing and are angry about that. Well, that’s why I’m the playcaller. This was all part of my plan because running the football is boring. Do you really want to watch boring football? No. Of course not.
OK, I see a few of you are pointing out that we ran a QB sneak on third-and-goal from the 9. Well, what would you have done? Literally anything else? Hah! That’s not innovative, kids. That’s why I’m the OC here.
And I see one of you is having some trouble getting several million dollars in frozen assets out of Nigeria. Let me tell you something, sir. Your plan to use my social security number and checking account to extricate those millions, while sharing a reasonable fraction with me — that, sir, is innovative! I’m in. And when we get our hands on that cash, let’s go all-in on the crypto market. You with me?
OK, I’m going to watch some film now which is an important way to understand the subtle brilliance of all 288 yards we had on offense against Ole Miss. You people wouldn’t understand that nuance because you just watch in real time and assume getting sacked is bad.
I look forward to all of your apologies next week. But also I’ll be out of the office most of Sunday, so if you need me to educate you during that time, please call my cell.
Another Eagles escape
Just looking for a little drama on Saturday? Boston College games are basically one long episode of “Lost” — strange, inexplicable, poorly plotted but seriously enthralling.
Through six weeks, the Eagles are 3-3. All three wins, including Saturday’s 27-24 squeaker against Army, have come by three points. Two of the three losses have also come by a field goal or less.
Basically, the “C” in BC stands for “cardiologist.”
BC lost its opener in OT after storming back from a 21-7 deficit in the fourth quarter.
It took a top-five Florida State team to the wire, only to be stopped by a brutal late flag.
It nearly blew a 10-point lead against Holy Cross. It erased a 21-7 deficit against Virginia to win.
And Saturday, Thomas Castellanos‘ fourth touchdown run of the game gave BC another win, just moments after Army had seemed to put the game away with a long TD pass called back by a penalty.
Struggling Georgia Tech, UConn, Virginia Tech and Pitt are all left on the schedule, so BC certainly has a path toward a bowl game, if it can avoid quite so much drama moving forward. Or it can follow the “Lost” formula, drag things out to the final week against Miami, and then get eaten by a smoke monster.
On a win streak
Week 6 began with four winless teams.
It ends with just two.
Virginia topped William & Mary 27-13 behind 132 rushing yards from Perris Jones, while UConn upended Rice 38-31 on Saturday, giving each team Win No. 1 for 2023.
The Cavaliers had been oh-so-close before, losing by 1 to James Madison, 3 to NC State and 3 to Boston College, but they finally landed a finishing blow Saturday, providing yet another big win for Thomas Jefferson over the British monarchy.
UConn, meanwhile, had its own struggles in close games, but two long TD throws from Ta’Quan Roberson got the Huskies their first W of the year, and dealt Rice a loss so embarrassing JT Daniels will now transfer again.
Just two teams remain winless heading into Week 7: Nevada, which was off this week, and Sam Houston, which fell to 0-5 on Thursday with a 21-16 loss to Liberty.
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M’s punch ALCS ticket in 15-inning instant classic
Published
2 hours agoon
October 11, 2025By
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ESPN News Services
Oct 11, 2025, 01:19 AM ET
SEATTLE — Jorge Polanco hit a game-ending single in the 15th inning, and the Seattle Mariners advanced to the American League Championship Series by outlasting the Detroit Tigers for a 3-2 victory Friday night.
At 4 hours, 58 minutes, it was the longest winner-take-all postseason game in baseball history and featured 15 pitchers — eight for the Mariners and seven for the Tigers.
With one out and the bases loaded, Polanco drove in J.P. Crawford with a liner to right off Tommy Kahnle. Crawford hit a leadoff single, Randy Arozarena was hit by a pitch and Julio Rodriguez was intentionally walked before Polanco’s big swing on the 472nd pitch of an epic Game 5 in a tightly contested division series.
The Mariners left 12 runners on base and still advanced to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. Next up is a matchup with the AL East champion Blue Jays, beginning Sunday night in Toronto.
“We never give up,” Polanco said. “We just keep fighting. It doesn’t matter how many innings we play. We just stay ready and wait for the moment. It’s going to come. It was my time.”
Luis Castillo pitched 1⅓ innings for the win in his first major league relief appearance. Logan Gilbert, another member of Seattle’s rotation, worked two scoreless innings in his first relief outing since his college days at Stetson University in 2017.
“It was such a tough night,” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said. “Everyone put their other stuff aside and did everything for the team, including Logan and Luis.”
Detroit wasted a stellar performance by Tarik Skubal, who struck out 13 while pitching six innings of one-run ball. The Tigers went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left 10 on base.
“We had an incredible game today that — unfortunately, somebody had to lose, and that somebody was us, and it hurts,” manager A.J. Hinch said.
Kerry Carpenter put Detroit in front when he hit a two-run homer off Gabe Speier in the sixth inning. Carpenter had four hits and walked twice, becoming the first player to reach five times and hit a home run in a winner-take-all postseason game since Babe Ruth in 1926.
The Mariners tied it at 2 on Leo Rivas‘ pinch-hit single off Tyler Holton in the seventh. Rivas celebrated his 28th birthday with his first postseason hit.
“He was up to the task tonight,” Seattle manager Dan Wilson said. “It was a huge hit.”
Friday’s win was the Mariners’ first series-clinching victory in extra innings since Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS, a 6-5 victory in 11 innings over the Yankees.
The Associated Press and ESPN Research contributed to this report.
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Digging in on 31 tasty morsels from a full Week 7 menu
Published
3 hours agoon
October 11, 2025By
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Bill ConnellyOct 10, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?
Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!
The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!
Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.
All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Fun new dishes
Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.
The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.
Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!
The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)
The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.
Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.
The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.
The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.
Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2
The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)
On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”
The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.
Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.
A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.
Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).
Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.
Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4
The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.
USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.
North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.
Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8
Reliable old standbys
The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?
The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.
Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense
OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.
Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.
Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.
Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8
The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)
Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.
Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.
Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.
Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7
The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.
Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5
The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)
Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.
First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play
Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play
In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.
Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7
The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)
Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.
After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.
Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8
This week in the Big 12
Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.
Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.
Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.
Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0
No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)
Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.
Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.
Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.
ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?
Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3
Week 7 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.
I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.
Week 7 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.
Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5
Early Saturday
Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.
Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1
UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.
Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3
Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.
Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0
Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.
Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7
Saturday afternoon
Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.
Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7
TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.
Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8
No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.
Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3
NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.
Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5
Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1
Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.
Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6
Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.
Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5
Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.
Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4
Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.
Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9
Saturday evening
South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.
Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3
Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.
Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1
Late Saturday
New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.
SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.
FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.
SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.
FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.
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