Israel-Hamas War: Why the prospect of this conflict being ‘contained to Gaza’ seems improbable
There are two parallel anxieties right now in terms of how all this unfolds.
The first is Gaza. We know what war looks like inside overcrowded Gaza because we have seen it too many times. But this is of a whole different magnitude.
The psychological shock that has penetrated deep into the Israeli psyche from the weekend’s Hamas massacres will compel the Israeli government to unleash a shock and awe retaliation on Gaza that will be truly terrifying for Gazans.
After so many civilian casualties in Israel, the civilian casualties from Netanyahu’s “we’ll turn Hamas to rubble” operation will test Israel’s allies.
Their shoulder-to-shoulder support has reflected the unprecedented brutality of the multiple Hamas terror attacks. But as civilian casualties mount, the unequivocal support for Israel’s tactics will become more nuanced.
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Will Israel differentiate between Hamas and civilians? Can it? How will civilians avoid the violence? The humanitarian challenges in Gaza will be huge.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thought he could “manage” Gaza and Hamas indefinitely. He was wrong. Hopelessness on the streets and extremist Palestinian politics collided.
That brings us to the second wider anxiety – Iran, which leverages Palestinian hopelessness, bolstering Hamas.
And Iran is how the conflict spirals. Israel is convinced Hamas’s unprecedented attack is not just inspired by Iran but funded by Iran and equipped by Iran.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi
Note what Israel’s Ambassador to the UN said in New York this weekend: “The Iranian President, the butcher of Tehran, Raisi met with the leadership of Hamas and we know that there were meetings in Syria, in Lebanon…,” Gilad Erdan said.
“So obviously, it’s easy to understand that they tried to coordinate the military, the terror armies, the terrorists, the proxies of Iran in our region…”
He is joining the dots. And if Israel finds a smoking gun, global anxiety increases.
Israel has acted alone against Iran many times. It is credited by allies for keeping Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions in check with isolated clandestine operations over the years.
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How Hamas attack unfolded – and Israel’s response
Is direct conflict with Iran a possibility? A senior Israeli diplomatic source was asked this on Sunday.
“No,” they said. “Iran’s strategy is that of proxy war and to deny a direct connection to Hamas’s efforts. They work through proxies and that’s why they are the number one state sponsor of terror. So for now we are not concerned about a direct conflict with Iran.”
Encouraging. But then those proxies – Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon – were busy on Sunday night, telling the Wall Street Journal that Iran was behind it all.
The Americans are more reserved.
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Hamas attack prompts retaliation
“On Iran’s involvement, I mean, look… it’s too early to say whether the state of Iran was directly involved or planning and supporting,” a senior administration official said on Saturday night. “I’m not going to get ahead of that. We are going to be looking at that very closely.”
The official added: “That said, there’s no doubt, Hamas is funded, equipped, armed by Iran and others.”
Read more:
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Some escaped on foot, but many were killed or taken hostage – city in shock
The United States aircraft carrier, USS Gerald Ford, and its Strike Group of ships will be off the coast of Israel in the next couple of days.
The days ahead are impossible to map, but the prospect of this conflict being “contained to Gaza”, as US officials hope, seems improbable.
Donald Trump has agreed to send “top of the line weapons” to NATO to support Ukraine – and threatened Russia with “severe” tariffs if it doesn’t agree to end the war.
Speaking with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte during a meeting at the White House, the US president said: “We’ve made a deal today where we are going to be sending them weapons, and they’re going to be paying for them.
“This is billions of dollars worth of military equipment which is going to be purchased from the United States,” he added, “going to NATO, and that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.”
Weapons being sent include surface-to-air Patriot missile systems and batteries, which Ukraine has asked for to defend itself from Russian air strikes.
Pic: Reuters
Mr Trump also said he was “very unhappy” with Russia, and threatened “severe tariffs” of “about 100%” if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days.
The White House added that the US would put “secondary sanctions” on countries that buy oil from Russia if an agreement was not reached.
It comes after weeks of frustration from Mr Trump against Vladimir Putin’s refusal to agree to an end to the conflict, with the Russian leader telling the US president he would “not back down” from Moscow’s goals in Ukraine at the start of the month.
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Trump says Putin ‘talks nice and then bombs everybody’
During the briefing on Monday, Mr Trump said he had held calls with Mr Putin where he would think “that was a nice phone call,” but then “missiles are launched into Kyiv or some other city, and that happens three or four times”.
“I don’t want to say he’s an assassin, but he’s a tough guy,” he added.
Earlier this year, Mr Trump told Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy “you’re gambling with World War Three” in a fiery White House meeting, and suggested Ukraine started the war against Russia as he sought to negotiate an end to the conflict.
After Mr Trump’s briefing, Russian senator Konstantin Kosachev said on Telegram: “If this is all that Trump had in mind to say about Ukraine today, then all the steam has gone out.”
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Meanwhile, Mr Zelenskyy met with US special envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv, where they “discussed the path to peace” by “strengthening Ukraine’s air defence, joint production, and procurement of defence weapons in collaboration with Europe”.
He thanked both the envoy for the visit and Mr Trump “for the important signals of support and the positive decisions for both our countries”.
At least 30 people have been killed in the Syrian city of Sweida in clashes between local military groups and tribes, according to Syria’s interior ministry.
Officials say initial figures suggest around 100 people have also been injured in the city, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups.
The interior ministry said its forces will directly intervene to resolve the conflict, which the Reuters news agency said involved fighting between Druze gunmen and Bedouin Sunni tribes.
It marks the latest episode of sectarian violence in Syria, where fears among minority groups have increased since Islamist-led rebels toppled President Bashar al Assad in December, installing their own government and security forces.
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In March, Sky’s Stuart Ramsay described escalating violence within Syria
The violence reportedly erupted after a wave of kidnappings, including the abduction of a Druze merchant on Friday on the highway linking Damascus to Sweida.
Last April, Sunni militia clashed with armed Druze residents of Jaramana, southeast of Damascus, and fighting later spread to another district near the capital.
But this is the first time the fighting has been reported inside the city of Sweida itself, the provincial capital of the mostly Druze province.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reports the fighting was centred in the Maqwas neighbourhood east of Sweida and villages on the western and northern outskirts of the city.
It adds that Syria’s Ministry of Defence has deployed military convoys to the area.
Western nations, including the US and UK, have been increasingly moving towards normalising relations with Syria.
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UK aims to build relationship with Syria
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Read more from Sky News:
UK restores diplomatic ties with Syria
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Concerns among minority groups have intensified following the killing of hundreds of Alawites in March, in apparent retaliation for an earlier attack carried out by Assad loyalists.
That was the deadliest sectarian flare-up in years in Syria, where a 14-year civil war ended with Assad fleeing to Russia after his government was overthrown by rebel forces.
The city of Sweida is in southern Syria, about 24 miles (38km) north of the border with Jordan.
The man convicted of the murder of British student Meredith Kercher has been charged with sexual assault against an ex-girlfriend.
Rudy Guede, 38, was the only person who was definitively convicted of the murder of 21-year-old Ms Kercher in Perugia, Italy, back in 2007.
He will be standing trial again in November after an ex-girlfriend filed a police report in the summer of 2023 accusing Guede of mistreatment, personal injury and sexual violence.
Guede, from the Ivory Coast, was released from prison for the murder of Leeds University student Ms Kercher in 2021, after having served about 13 years of a 16-year sentence.
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Since last year – when this investigation was still ongoing – Guede has been under a “special surveillance” regime, Sky News understands, meaning he was banned from having any contact with the woman behind the sexual assault allegations, including via social media, and had to inform police any time he left his city of residence, Viterbo, as ruled by a Rome court.
Guede has been serving a restraining order and fitted with an electronic ankle tag.
The Kercher murder case, in the university city of Perugia, was the subject of international attention.
Ms Kercher, a 21-year-old British exchange student, was found murdered in the flat she shared with her American roommate, Amanda Knox.
The Briton’s throat had been cut and she had been stabbed 47 times.
(L-R) Raffaele Sollecito, Meredith Kercher and Amanda Knox. File pic: AP
Ms Knox and her then-boyfriend, Raffaele Sollecito, were placed under suspicion.
Both were initially convicted of murder, but Italy’s highest court overturned their convictions, acquitting them in 2015.
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