There are two parallel anxieties right now in terms of how all this unfolds.
The first is Gaza. We know what war looks like inside overcrowded Gaza because we have seen it too many times. But this is of a whole different magnitude.
The psychological shock that has penetrated deep into the Israeli psyche from the weekend’s Hamas massacres will compel the Israeli government to unleash a shock and awe retaliation on Gaza that will be truly terrifying for Gazans.
After so many civilian casualties in Israel, the civilian casualties from Netanyahu’s “we’ll turn Hamas to rubble” operation will test Israel’s allies.
Their shoulder-to-shoulder support has reflected the unprecedented brutality of the multiple Hamas terror attacks. But as civilian casualties mount, the unequivocal support for Israel’s tactics will become more nuanced.
Israel-Hamas War – watch special programme on Sky News tonight at 9pm
Will Israel differentiate between Hamas and civilians? Can it? How will civilians avoid the violence? The humanitarian challenges in Gaza will be huge.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu thought he could “manage” Gaza and Hamas indefinitely. He was wrong. Hopelessness on the streets and extremist Palestinian politics collided.
That brings us to the second wider anxiety – Iran, which leverages Palestinian hopelessness, bolstering Hamas.
And Iran is how the conflict spirals. Israel is convinced Hamas’s unprecedented attack is not just inspired by Iran but funded by Iran and equipped by Iran.
Note what Israel’s Ambassador to the UN said in New York this weekend: “The Iranian President, the butcher of Tehran, Raisi met with the leadership of Hamas and we know that there were meetings in Syria, in Lebanon…,” Gilad Erdan said.
“So obviously, it’s easy to understand that they tried to coordinate the military, the terror armies, the terrorists, the proxies of Iran in our region…”
He is joining the dots. And if Israel finds a smoking gun, global anxiety increases.
Israel has acted alone against Iran many times. It is credited by allies for keeping Iran’s nuclear weapon ambitions in check with isolated clandestine operations over the years.
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2:02
How Hamas attack unfolded – and Israel’s response
Is direct conflict with Iran a possibility? A senior Israeli diplomatic source was asked this on Sunday.
“No,” they said. “Iran’s strategy is that of proxy war and to deny a direct connection to Hamas’s efforts. They work through proxies and that’s why they are the number one state sponsor of terror. So for now we are not concerned about a direct conflict with Iran.”
Encouraging. But then those proxies – Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon – were busy on Sunday night, telling the Wall Street Journal that Iran was behind it all.
The Americans are more reserved.
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2:39
Hamas attack prompts retaliation
“On Iran’s involvement, I mean, look… it’s too early to say whether the state of Iran was directly involved or planning and supporting,” a senior administration official said on Saturday night. “I’m not going to get ahead of that. We are going to be looking at that very closely.”
The official added: “That said, there’s no doubt, Hamas is funded, equipped, armed by Iran and others.”
Russia launched a large drone attack on Kyiv overnight, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy warning the attack shows his capital needs better air defences.
Ukraine’s air defence units shot down 50 of 73 Russian drones launched, with no immediate reports of damage or injuries as a result of the attacks.
Russia has used more than 800 guided aerial bombs and around 460 attack drones in the past week.
Warning that Ukraine needs to improve its air defences, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “An air alert has been sounded almost daily across Ukraine this week”.
“Ukraine is not a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine is a sovereign and independent state.
“But Russia still continues its efforts to kill our people, spread fear and panic, and weaken us.”
Russia did not comment on the attack.
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It comes as Russian media reported that Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, the commander of the country’s southern military district, had been removed from his role over allegedly providing misleading reports about his troops’ progress.
While Russian forces have advanced at the fastest rate in Ukraine since the start of the invasion, forces have been much slower around Siversk and the eastern region of Donetsk.
Russian forces have reportedly captured a British man while he was fighting for Ukraine.
In a widely circulated video posted on Sunday, the man says his name is James Scott Rhys Anderson, aged 22.
He says he is a former British Army soldier who signed up to fight for Ukraine’s International Legion after his job.
He is dressed in army fatigues and speaks with an English accent as he says to camera: “I was in the British Army before, from 2019 to 2023, 22 Signal Regiment.”
He tells the camera he was “just a private”, “a signalman” in “One Signal Brigade, 22 Signal Regiment, 252 Squadron”.
“When I left… got fired from my job, I applied on the International Legion webpage. I had just lost everything. I just lost my job,” he said.
“My dad was away in prison, I see it on the TV,” he added, shaking his head. “It was a stupid idea.”
In a second video, he is shown with his hands tied and at one point, with tape over his eyes.
He describes how he had travelled to Ukraine from Britain, saying: “I flew to Krakow, Poland, from London Luton. Bus from there to Medyka in Poland, on the Ukraine border.”
Russian state news agency Tass reported that a military source said a “UK mercenary” had been “taken prisoner in the Kursk area” of Russia.
The UK Foreign Office said it was “supporting the family of a British man following reports of his detention”.
The Ministry of Defence has declined to comment at this stage.
The body of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been found, Israel has said.
Zvi Kogan, the Chabad representative in the UAE,went missing on Thursday.
A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office on Sunday said the 28-year-old rabbi was murdered, calling it a “heinous antisemitic terror incident”.
“The state of Israel will act with all means to seek justice with the criminals responsible for his death,” it said.
The Emirati government gave no immediate acknowledgment that Mr Kogan had been found dead. Its interior ministry has described the rabbi as being “missing and out of contact”.
“Specialised authorities immediately began search and investigation operations upon receiving the report,” the interior ministry said.
Mr Kogan lived in the UAE with his wife Rivky, who is a US citizen. He ran a Kosher grocery store in Dubai, which has been the target of online protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.
The Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Orthodox Judaism, said Mr Kogan was last seen in Dubai.
Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors currently there should minimise movement and remain in secure areas.
The rabbi’s disappearance comes as Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the two countries traded fire in October.
While the Israeli statement on Mr Kogan did not mention Iran, Iranian intelligence services have previously carried out kidnappings in the UAE.
The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020. Since then, synagogues and businesses catering to kosher diners have been set up for the burgeoning Jewish community but the unrest in the Middle East has sparked deep anger in the country.