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The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.

There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Tehran has denied involvement. A senior Hamas official has told NBC News the attack that left hundreds of Israelis dead was “a Palestinian operation – 100%”.

Israel-Gaza latest – Israeli PM says response to attack will ‘change Middle East’

A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.

The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.

The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.

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Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.

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Israel-Gaza: The human cost on both sides

Map of some of the areas outside of Gaza where there have been isolated clashes between Israeli forces and Hamas militants
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A map of some of the areas near Gaza where there have been clashes between Israel and Hamas

The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.

“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.

“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza, October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem
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Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza

Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
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Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli strikes on Gaza City’s Shati refugee camp. Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”

This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

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Moments after rocket hits Israeli city

Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas
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Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas

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If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.

The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.

As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.

It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.

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‘This has been Israel’s 9/11’

This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.

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Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.

Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.

Israel will be seeking to do something similar.

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IDF admits ‘serious offence’ after using vehicle marked ambulance in raid in which a grandmother was killed

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IDF admits 'serious offence' after using vehicle marked ambulance in raid in which a grandmother was killed

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has admitted to a “serious offence” after a Sky News investigation analysed CCTV footage showing the moment an 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother was shot in the West Bank.

Halima Abu Leil was shot during a raid in Nablus. The grandmother died soon after.

During the course of the investigation, we noted that a blue vehicle marked as an ambulance and with a red light on its roof was used by IDF troops to enter the West Bank.

Our investigation stated: “Figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.”

The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.

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CCTV shows Palestinian grandmother shot in IDF raid

The IDF has subsequently told Sky News: “On December 19, 2024, soldiers from the ‘Duvdevan’ unit took part in an operational mission to detain terrorists in Nablus.

“During the operation, an ambulance-like vehicle was used for operational purposes, without authorisation and without the relevant commanders’ approval.”

It added: “The use of the ambulance-like vehicle during the operation was a serious offence, exceeding authority, and a violation of existing orders and procedures.”

It also said the commander of the ‘Duvdevan’ unit was “reprimanded”.

However, it gave no update into the death of Halima, saying “the circumstances of the incident are being examined”.

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The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News her death could be a “war crime”.

She said: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life.

“No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.

“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”

According to the United Nations Office Of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory, Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy offers captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held by Russia

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy offers captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainians held by Russia

Ukraine’s president is offering a prisoner swap with North Korean soldiers it has captured, in exchange for Ukrainians held by Russia.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made a direct appeal to leader Kim Jong Un after seizing two North Koreans in Russia’s Kursk region.

“In addition to the first captured soldiers from North Korea, there will undoubtedly be more. It’s only a matter of time before our troops manage to capture others,” he said in a video posted on X.

His video also included an offer of help to officials in California fighting the ongoing fires there.

It is the first time Ukraine has announced the capture of North Korean soldiers since their entry into the nearly three-year-old war last autumn.

Ukrainian and Western assessments say that some 11,000 troops from Russia‘s ally North Korea have been deployed in the Kursk region to support Moscow’s forces, although Russia has neither confirmed nor denied their presence.

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un smile together in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Photo via AP, File)
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Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un met in Pyongyang to sign a ‘military pact’ in June 2024. Pic: Kremlin Photo/AP

Mr Zelenskyy has said Russian and North Korean forces had suffered heavy losses.

More on North Korea

“Ukraine is ready to hand over Kim Jong Un’s soldiers to him if he can organise their exchange for our warriors who are being held captive in Russia,” Mr Zelenskyy added.

He posted a short video showing the interrogation of two men, presented as North Korean soldiers.

One of them is lying on a bed with bandaged hands, the other is sitting with a bandage on his jaw.

Pic: Volodymyr Zelenskyy/X
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Ukraine said on Saturday it had captured two North Korean soldiers. Pic: Volodymyr Zelenskyy/X

One of the men said through an interpreter that he did not know he was fighting against Ukraine and had been told he was on a training exercise. He said he hid in a shelter during the offensive and was found a couple of days later.

He said that if he was ordered to return to North Korea, he would, but he was ready to stay in Ukraine if given the chance.

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Sky News has not been able to verify the video.

“One of them (soldiers) expressed a desire to stay in Ukraine, the other to return to Korea,” said Mr Zelenskyy, adding that for North Korean soldiers who did not wish to return home, there may be other options available.

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Blue Origin launch: Is Jeff Bezos chasing down Elon Musk in the billionaire space race?

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Blue Origin launch: Is Jeff Bezos chasing down Elon Musk in the billionaire space race?

Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin is set for the inaugural launch of its new space rocket on Monday in a development that could add more fuel to the billionaire space race.

The New Glenn rocket is due to blast off from Cape Canaveral – the result of a multi-billion dollar, decade-long effort that could set the stage for Amazon’s satellite constellation venture and dent Elon Musk’s market share.

Mr Musk’s SpaceX has dominated the scene for many years but both Mr Bezos and Virgin Galactic founder Sir Richard Branson have designs on outer space… and the wealth tied up in its exploration.

New Glenn on the launch pad in December. Pic: Blue Origin
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New Glenn on the launch pad in December. Pic: Blue Origin

Jeff Bezos and Blue Origin

“Ever since I was five years old, I’ve dreamed of traveling to space,” Mr Bezos said ahead of his journey to the edge of space in 2021.

He founded the Blue Origin venture with the aim of having “millions of people working and living in space”.

For years it has launched – and landed – its reusable New Shepard rocket to and from the brim of Earth’s atmosphere, but has never sent anything into orbit. That could all change on Monday.

Jeff Bezos, owner of The Washington Post, delivers remarks at the grand opening of the Washington Post newsroom in Washington January 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron
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Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin and Amazon. Pic: Reuters

Blue Origin will be hoping its New Glenn rocket will be able to compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the world’s most active rocket.

Compared to Mr Musk’s Falcon 9, the New Glenn is about twice as powerful and its payload bay diameter is two times larger in order to fit bigger batches of satellites.

The upcoming launch is also a key certification flight required by the US Space Force before New Glenn can launch national security payloads as part of multi-billion dollar government tenders Blue Origin hopes to win.

A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket lifts off for the Europa Clipper mission to study one of Jupiter's 95 moons, at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S. October 14, 2024. REUTERS/Joe Skipper
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A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket lifts off in October 2024. Pic: Reuters

Elon Musk and SpaceX

“I want to die on Mars – just not on impact,” Elon Musk once quipped.

The Donald Trump ally, who is frequently pictured wearing an “Occupy Mars” shirt, has enjoyed relative dominance of the private space industry through his company SpaceX.

Back in 2016, Mr Musk outlined his vision of building a colony on Mars “in our lifetimes” – with the first rocket propelling humans to the Red Planet by 2025, though this deadline does not appear likely to be met.

Mr Musk and Mr Trump speak at launch of SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket at NASA's Kennedy Space Centre in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Elon Musk and Donald Trump speak at a SpaceX launch in 2020. Pic: Reuters

For many years the company used an image of the Martian surface being terraformed (turned Earth-like) in its promotional material. However, a NASA-sponsored study published in 2018 dismissed these plans as impossible with the technology available then.

SpaceX missions have included both US government contracts and launching the company’s Starlink satellite internet network.

And while Mr Bezos’ New Glenn rocket is much more powerful than the successful Falcon 9, SpaceX’s next-generation Starship, a fully reusable rocket system currently in development, would be more powerful still.

Mr Musk sees Starship as crucial to expanding Starlink’s footprint in orbit. Its next test flight is expected later this month and will involve deploying mock satellites.

Read more:
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 Sir Richard Branson
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Sir Richard Branson. Pic: Reuters

Sir Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic

Also seeking a stake in the upper atmosphere is Virgin founder Sir Richard, whose Virgin Galactic effort took its first tourists to the edge of space in 2023.

The crew took the passengers about 55 miles (88km) above Earth where they experienced zero gravity during the flight which lasted just over an hour.

“My mum taught me to never give up and to reach for the stars,” the British billionaire once said.

The company is currently taking a pause from flights as it develops new space vehicles, Forbes reported in October last year.

Its new fleet of Delta vehicles are scheduled to resume commercial spaceflight by 2026.

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