The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.
There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.
The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.
The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.
More on Israel-hamas War
Related Topics:
Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:45
Israel-Gaza: The human cost on both sides
Image: A map of some of the areas near Gaza where there have been clashes between Israel and Hamas
The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Advertisement
Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.
“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.
“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”
Image: Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
Image: Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli strikes on Gaza City’s Shati refugee camp. Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”
This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:11
Moments after rocket hits Israeli city
Image: Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas
If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.
The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.
As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.
It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:28
‘This has been Israel’s 9/11’
This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.
Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.
A total of 28 people have died following Hurricane Melissa’s rampage across Jamaica, the government has confirmed.
Melissa, one of the strongest storms on record to make landfall in the Caribbean, brought with it winds of up to 185mph when it hit the island earlier this week.
The Red Cross described it as a “disaster of unprecedented catastrophe”.
Melissa ravaged through Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba.
It weakened by the time it reached Cuba on Wednesday morning but still brought devastation – with houses collapsed and roads blocked.
A statement from the government of Jamaica said it was “deeply saddened to confirm 28 fatalities associated with the passage of Hurricane Melissa”.
It went on: “We extend heartfelt condolences to the families, friends, and communities mourning their loved ones.”
The flight, chartered by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was for those “unable to leave Jamaica on commercial routes”.
Essential relief supplies are now rolling into some of the hardest hit areas.
Image: Humanitarian aid has arrived and is waiting to be distributed. Pic: AP
The UK government is mobilising an additional £5m in emergency humanitarian funding – on top of £2.5m announced earlier this week – to support the region’s recovery.
This new funding will enable the UK to send humanitarian supplies – including more than 3,000 shelter kits and over 1,500 solar-powered lanterns to help those whose homes have been damaged and those without power.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:57
Jamaica victims left shell-shocked
The UK is working with the World Food Programme and Red Cross, to ensure emergency relief reaches those who need it most.
At least 25 people died in the southern Haitian coastal town of Petit-Goave after the La Digue river burst its banks as a result of the hurricane, according to the town’s mayor Jean Bertrand Subreme.
Ukraine is increasing its number of assault troops in the area, the 7th Rapid Response Corps said on Facebook.
And Ukrainian troops are also working to cut Moscow’s military logistics routes, it added.
The Russian defence ministry also said its forces defeated a team of Ukrainian special forces that headed to Pokrovsk in a bid to prevent Russian forces from advancing further into the city.
More on Russia
Related Topics:
‘Footage of Ukrainian troops after surrendering’
It later posted videos of two Ukrainian troops who, it claimed, had surrendered.
The footage showed the men, one dressed in fatigues and the other in a dark green jacket, sat against a wall in a dark room, as they spoke of fierce fighting and encirclement by Russian forces.
The videos’ authenticity could not be independently verified, and there was no immediate public comment from Kyiv on the Russian ministry’s claims.
Image: Ukrainian police officers on patrol in Pokrovsk. File pic: Reuters
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously acknowledged that some Russian units had infiltrated the city. But he maintained that Ukraine is tackling them.
He said Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk province, where Pokrovsk is located, in a major offensive to capture the city and claim a big battlefield victory.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday the situation in Pokrovsk remained “hardest” for Ukrainian forces, who were trying to push Russian troops out.
But he insisted there was no encirclement or blockade as Moscow has claimed.
“A comprehensive operation to destroy and push out enemy forces from Pokrovsk is ongoing. The main burden lies on the shoulders of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine, particularly UAV operators and assault units,” Mr Syrskyi said.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
28:44
Why is Ukraine attacking Moscow? What’s behind Putin’s nuclear test?
Why is Pokrovsk important?
One of Moscow’s key aims has been to take all of Ukraine’sindustrial heartland of coal-rich Donbas, which comprises of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Kyiv still controls about 10% of Donbas.
Capturing Pokrovsk, which Russian media has dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk”, and Kostiantynivka to its northeast, would give Moscow a platform to drive north towards the two biggest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in Donetsk – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
‘Key Russian fuel pipeline struck’
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military intelligence, known as HUR, has said its forces have hit an important fuel pipeline in the Moscow region that supplies the Russian army.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
4:16
Dramatic drone rescue in Ukraine’s kill zone
In a statement on Telegram, HUR said the operation late on Friday was a “serious blow” to Russia’s military logistics.
HUR said its forces struck the Koltsevoy pipeline, which is 250 miles long and supplies the Russian army with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow.
The operation, which targeted infrastructure near Ramensky district, destroyed all three fuel lines, HUR said.
The pipeline was capable of transporting up to three million tonnes of jet fuel, 2.8 million tonnes of diesel and 1.6 million tonnes of gasoline annually, HUR said.
Russia ‘targets gas production site’
Also overnight, Russia launched an attack on a gas production site in Poltava, in central Ukraine.
A fire broke out, the local administration said, but no injuries were reported.
Kyiv condemns ‘nuclear terrorism’
Ukraine’s foreign ministry has condemned Russian strikes this week on substations powering some of its nuclear plants.
It accused Russia of carrying out “targeted strikes on such substations” which “bear the hallmarks of nuclear terrorism”.
Elsewhere, a civilian died and 15 more were injured on Saturday morning after Russia struck the Mykolaiv region in southern Ukraine with a ballistic Iskander missile, local official Vitaliy Kim said.
A child was among those hurt in the strike, he added.
The death toll in Jamaica after Hurricane Melissa could rise, with certain communities still marooned from the rest of the island, according to the police chief for the worst-affected area.
Coleridge Minto, superintendent of police for St Elizabeth Parish, told Sky News that his area has recorded six deaths directly related to the hurricane.
“We are hoping there is no more,” he said. “The reality is we have not yet communicated with all our station commanders in some of the other areas and so as soon as we have those reports, we could be hearing of other injuries, other situations that we were not privy to at this moment.”
The UK has pledged a total of £7.5m to assist the Caribbean’s recovery from the hurricane. Aid flights have been arriving over the past couple of days into Jamaica’s two international airports, but it’s not getting to where they need it the most.
Image: Black River has been described as ground zero after Hurricane Melissa swept through it
In the town of Middle Quarters, close to where the hurricane made landfall, Vivienne Bennett is sitting, propped up against a house without a roof. Her right hand is wrapped in a kitchen towel. “I lost my finger in the hurricane,” she says, showing me her finger which is exposed to the bone. “I opened the door of my house to try and escape, and the wind slammed it back and cut my finger off.”
She asks me for painkillers and says she doesn’t have any medication to stave off infection. I ask if she has seen any government aid. “No,” she replies, “we haven’t seen anybody yet, so we’re trying to get some help. I need to get to a hospital but I don’t know how because all the roads are blocked.”
Image: The situation is growing more dire by the day
Her daughter, Leila, has a baby and other children are playing nearby. “We have no nappies, we have no food, we have no water,” Leila says, “it feels like the wilderness here now.”
More from World
The road leading to Black River, the town authorities are referring to as “ground zero” for this disaster, is difficult to pass, but not impossible. A journey from the capital, Kingston, that would usually take two hours, now takes six. We drive through murky floodwater, a couple of feet deep, and through an avenue of twisted bamboo stalks.
On arrival, it’s a desperate scene. People here seem almost shell-shocked, still processing what has happened to them, unsure what to do next. One man walks past our cameraman and holds his hands in the air. “Jamaica needs help,” he says, “it’s been mashed up.” I ask what help he needs. “We need houses, food and water,” he replies.
Black River was once a wealthy town, the first in Jamaica to have electricity. But the storm has laid waste to the main street. The 300-year-old church, the seafront restaurant, the pharmacy, the Chinese supermarket, the whole town has been shredded.
A group of people sit at a bus stop on the seafront surrounded by huge rocks washed up by a 16-foot storm surge. “It’s a disaster, a disaster,” one woman calls out to me.
With communications still down across most of the island, people here have been unable to contact friends and family for five days now.
Image: Black River has been described as ground zero after Hurricane Melissa swept through it
A woman called Inkiru Bernard, who is Jamaican but lives in New York, has been in touch with our team and asked us to try to find her 67-year-old mother, who lives in Black River. She’s not heard from her since the storm.
When we arrive at the address she provides, her mother, Inez McRae, is sitting on the porch. She shows me around what remains of the house where she weathers the storm. The roof is entirely gone, everything is sodden and thick with mud.
“But I’m alive,” she says, “I’ve been spared.” When Inkiru finally sees her mother on a video call, she cries with relief. “Oh mummy,” she says, “I’ve been so worried.”
Image: Ms McRae is thankful of having ‘been spared’
Tanks have been positioned on the main street in Black River and soldiers patrol it after shops and businesses were looted.
The police chief for this area, Coleridge Minto, says he understands the desperation but is urging people to be patient.
“We can appreciate that persons are trying to grab things,” he says, “persons are devastated, but we want to ensure that we maintain law.”
Army helicopters were flying over the disaster zone and some aid is now arriving into Black River. But with other villages still largely cut off from the rest of the island, this situation is growing more dire by the day.