The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.
There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.
The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.
The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.
More on Israel-hamas War
Related Topics:
Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:45
Israel-Gaza: The human cost on both sides
Image: A map of some of the areas near Gaza where there have been clashes between Israel and Hamas
The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Advertisement
Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.
“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.
“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”
Image: Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
Image: Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli strikes on Gaza City’s Shati refugee camp. Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”
This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:11
Moments after rocket hits Israeli city
Image: Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas
If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.
The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.
As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.
It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
1:28
‘This has been Israel’s 9/11’
This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.
Spreaker
This content is provided by Spreaker, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Spreaker cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Spreaker cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Spreaker cookies for this session only.
Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.
Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.
Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have boarded a tanker off the coast of Somalia.
Greek shipping company Latsco Marine Management confirmed its vessel, Hellas Aphrodite, had been attacked in the early hours of Thursday.
The tanker, which was carrying fuel, was en route from India to South Africa when a “security incident” took place, the firm said.
“All 24 crew are safe and accounted for and we remain in close contact with them,” it added in a statement.
Datawrapper
This content is provided by Datawrapper, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Datawrapper cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Datawrapper cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Datawrapper cookies for this session only.
The crew members took shelter in the ship’s “citadel”, or fortified safe room, and remain there, an official from maritime security company Diaplous said.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency issued an alert to warn ships in the area.
It located the vessel 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Eyl became famous in the mid-2000s as the centre of a string of piracy attacks.
More on Somalia
Related Topics:
“The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by one small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] towards the vessel,” UKMTO said in a statement.
EU forces move in on tanker
The European Union’s Operation Atalanta, a counter-piracy mission around the Horn of Africa, said one of its assets was “close to the incident” and “ready to take the appropriate actions”.
That EU force has responded to other recent pirate attacks in the area and had issued a recent alert that a pirate group was operating off Somalia and assaults were “almost certain” to happen.
Private security firm Ambrey has claimed that Somali pirates were operating from an Iranian fishing boat they had seized and had opened fire on the tanker.
Thursday’s attack comes after another vessel, the Cayman Islands-flagged Stolt Sagaland, found itself targeted in a suspected pirate attack that included both its armed security force and the attackers shooting at each other, the EU force said.
The vessel’s operator Stolt-Nielsen confirmed there was an attempted attack, early on 3 November, which was unsuccessful.
Somali pirate gangs have been relatively inactive in recent years. In May 2024, suspected pirates boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel Basilisk. EU naval forces later rescued the 17 crew members.
Meanwhile, the last hijacking took place in December 2023, when the Maltese-flagged Ruen was taken by assailants to the Somali coast before Indian naval forces freed the crew and arrested the attackers.
Hellas Aphrodite was en route from Sikka, India, to Durban, South Africa.
The Malta-flagged tanker is described as an oil/chemical tanker, 183m long and 32m wide, which was built in 2016, according to vesselfinder.com.
This year will likely be the second or third warmest ever on record globally, as an “unprecedented streak” of high temperatures persists, UN scientists have warned.
It comes as climate talks between world leaders get under way in Brazil.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Prince William addressed other nations in the Amazonian city of Belem, including Brazil‘s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and officials from Jamaica, which is still reeling from the devastating Hurricane Melissa.
Global average surface temperatures in January to August 2025 were 1.42C above pre-industrial times, before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation has said.
Image: The Amazon rainforest around COP30 is threatened by climate change and mining, which also raises cash for the state of Para. Pic: Reuters
The level is closing in on the target set in the landmark Paris Agreement, struck at COP21 in 2015, which aimed to limit global warming to “well below” 2C and ideally 1.5C.
That means just 10 years later, it is already looking “virtually impossible” to stick to the Paris goal without at least temporarily overshooting it, the WMO said.
Under this heat, the UK experienced its hottest summer on record, two million people in Pakistan were evacuated from deadly floods and parts of the Amazon rainforest are so dry that once rare wildfires now spread easily.
More on Cop30
Related Topics:
Hilde Heine, president of the coral atoll country of the Marshall Islands in the Pacific, said the “widespread mortality of coral reefs [is] now seemingly inevitable” and the Amazon is “likely not far behind in suffering a similar fate”.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo stressed it would be “still entirely possible and essential” to bring temperatures down to the 1.5C goal again.
That 1.5C limit is “not just a figure” but a “lifeline for Pacific communities and climate-vulnerable nations” grappling with rising and warming seas, said Shiva Gounden, head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific.
“The legal, moral, and political responsibility for climate action has never been stronger, and the ambition leaders take to Belem will define its success.”
The leaders are in town over the course of two days, before the COP30 climate summit begins on Monday.
But only about 60 are due to attend, compared with more than double the number in some previous years.
The heads of the world’s three largest drivers of climate change, China, the US and India, are all staying at home.
Although many missing leaders will still send officials to the negotiations, diplomats here in Belem are worried that governments are distracted by cost-of-living woes and boosting defence.
They also fear US President Donald Trump will seek to water down any deals from afar by threatening countries that agree to anything too ambitious.
Leaders ‘denying reality’
Mariana Menezes, a Brazilian mother caught up in the devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul last year, said: “We see world leaders denying reality and making plans to expand fossil fuels.
“These people, who once enjoyed full lives with unforgettable summers and long walks outdoors in their youth, are condemning future generations to lives of pollution and disasters.”
The WMO’s annual State of the Climate reports found that the past 11 years – from the Paris Agreement year of 2015 to 2025 – have each been in the top 11 warmest on record.
And the past three years have been the three warmest years in the record, stretching back 176 years.
In his speech, Sir Keir admitted that the “consensus is gone” on climate change – that cross-party unity on the science has splintered at home and globally.
He made an economic case for net zero, saying the green transition would create jobs and lower household bills.
US soldiers in Germany may not receive their November pay and have been given food bank advice as a government shutdown entered a record 37th day.
Around 37,000 US soldiers stationed in the country face uncertainty over November salary payments.
The Pentagon has warned US troops may not receive mid-month wages despite last-minute funding for October.
US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CBS News: “I think we’ll be able to pay them beginning in November, but by 15 November our troops and service members who are willing to risk their lives aren’t going to be able to get paid.”
The US army also published guidance on its website directing soldiers in Germany to emergency social benefits, loans, and food sharing organisations including Tafel Deutschland – the umbrella organisation of more than 970 food banks in the country – as well as the app Too Good To Go.
Some of the information was later removed from the web page of the garrison in Bavaria, but some of the listings for services for those affected by the shutdown remained on a separate document.
Captivate
This content is provided by Captivate, which may be using cookies and other technologies.
To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies.
You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable Captivate cookies or to allow those cookies just once.
You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options.
Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to Captivate cookies.
To view this content you can use the button below to allow Captivate cookies for this session only.
The US federal government shutdown became the longest in history on Wednesday – with Sean Duffy, the transportation secretary, announcing he was ordering a 10% cut in flights at 40 major US airports from Friday.
Tens of thousands of flights have been delayed because of widespread air traffic control shortages, with the shutdown forcing 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents to work without pay.
Airlines have said at least 3.2 million travellers have already been impacted by air traffic control shortages.
Image: Travellers waiting in long airport security lines in Houston on 3 November. Pic: AP
“Our job is to make sure we make the hard decisions to continue to keep the airspace safe,” said Mr Duffy.
“When we see pressures building in these 40 markets, we just can’t ignore it,” said Bryan Bedford, head of the Federal Aviation Administration.
“We can take action today to prevent things from deteriorating so the system is extremely safe today, will be extremely safe tomorrow.”
The government did not name the 40 sites affected, but the cuts are expected to hit the busiest airports, including those serving New York City, Washington DC, Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Dallas.
This would reduce as many as 1,800 flights and more than 268,000 airline seats, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.
The shutdown, which started on 1 October, has been triggered by politicians failing to pass new funding bills as a stand-off between the Democrats and Republicans over healthcare spending continues.
It has now eclipsed the 35-day federal closure in late 2018 and early 2019 during Donald Trump’s first term – disrupting the lives of millions of Americans as all non-essential parts of government are frozen.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. But 60 votes are needed to pass any funding bill.
The Trump administration has sought to ramp up the pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown and has increasingly raised the spectre of dramatic aviation disruptions to force them to vote to reopen the government.
However, Democrats contend Republicans are to blame for refusing to negotiate over key health care subsidies.