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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

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‘Terror cannot beat us’: Nova Music Festival founders on surviving October 7 – and their hopes for peace

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'Terror cannot beat us': Nova Music Festival founders on surviving October 7 - and their hopes for peace

In the exhibition room of Berlin’s old Tempelhof Airport, three burned-out cars lie on their sides.

The windows, interiors and paintwork are gone; all that remains are lumps of twisted and rusted metal. Next to them is a rough circle of tents and scattered mats.

A picnic chair has toppled over on one, others are strewn with abandoned bags, camping equipment and discarded fairy lights.

“Everything you see here is original from the festival on October 7th,” Ofir Amir explains.

He’s referring to the Nova Music Festival, where around 400 people were murdered on 7 October 2023.

In the week where peace finally feels like a possibility, Ofir is remembering those killed in a massacre that sparked the latest conflict.

All around us are tables of abandoned items left behind in the panic. One displays clothes; another is filled with shoes.

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Shoes form part of the tributes to those who died on 7 October 2023
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Shoes form part of the tributes to those who died on 7 October 2023

All of them are reminders of a day, Ofir, who was a co-founder of the festival, nearly didn’t survive.

“When the terrorists came to the festival area, we saw them just shooting into the crowd that was running away from them,” he tells me.

Ofir and his friends managed to jump into a car and started to drive away, but they were cornered by Hamas militants who opened fire.

One of their friends died, and Ofir was shot in both legs. He remembers he was on the phone to his wife, who was nine months pregnant at the time.

‘How will my wife raise a child alone’

“This was all I could ever think about,” he says, “that I might not come home, and how will my wife raise a child alone.”

Ofir’s friends used what they could to stop the bleeding and managed to keep him alive until help came.

The memorial exhibition was created in memory of those who died.

It’s already opened in cities including New York and Toronto, but on the second anniversary of the October 7 attacks, the exhibition began its first European show in Berlin.

“With so much hate going on, so much antisemitism everywhere on the streets, all over the world, it’s important to show the world and give them a reminder when you go so blindly and follow hate, what the outcome can be,” Ofir says.

Omri Sasi, also a co-founder and DJ at the Nova Music Festival, was in the car with Ofir when they were hit.

He picks out faces from a long line of photos which cover one wall.

Ofir Amir was shot in both legs as he escaped the festival
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Ofir Amir was shot in both legs as he escaped the festival

‘They were murdered together’

“This is my uncle, Avi Sasi. This is Alex Luke, my friend from Montreal… they were murdered together,” he says.

Beside them are the photos of Omri’s pregnant cousin and her husband, who were also killed.

Despite their losses, Omri and Ofir say they don’t want the exhibition to focus on religion or politics but to help spread peace.

However, the memorial event has faced some opposition; for example, several hundred demonstrators protested against Israel at the exhibit in New York.

In Los Angeles, Omri says a pro-Palestinian group also gathered outside the show. He invited them in, and they talked about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Omri Sasi was also in the car with Ofir, when they were hit by Hamas gunmen
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Omri Sasi was also in the car with Ofir, when they were hit by Hamas gunmen

‘We cried together’

“We cried together, we hugged each other and we understood that the best way to deal with this war is to talk,” he says. “Not to fight and not hit people.”

More than 60,000 Gazans have died in the Israel-Hamas war, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry.

Omri tells me he has friends in Gaza, that he wants the ceasefire to hold, and Gazans “to have a good life” – but he’s also deeply concerned by the rise in antisemitism he’s seen in the last two years.

“People are scared,” he says. “Even when I go out here in Berlin, I look around myself and I try to not speak in Hebrew, and this is sad.

“It doesn’t need to be like this.”

Liora Furema says she is worried about her safety at Jewish events
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Liora Furema says she is worried about her safety at Jewish events

Authorities across Europe have warned about growing hate and violence against Jewish people since the October 7 attack.

The fatal synagogue attack in Manchester has added to the fear.

This week, Germany’s domestic intelligence chief said antisemitism had increased with sometimes open calls for attacks on Jewish institutions, while the country’s chancellor denounced the trend as “shameful”.

At the Berlin exhibition, Liora Furema says she’s worried about her safety as a Jewish student when she goes to university or to the synagogue.

“At any Jewish event, I think about my security,” she explained.

Omri says he is deeply concerned by the rise in antisemitism
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Omri says he is deeply concerned by the rise in antisemitism

It’s hoped the ceasefire will be the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza, but the fear of antisemitism remains.

Rather than deepening the divisions, the organisers say the show is a reminder of the dangers of allowing hate to flourish. They now are focusing on healing.

“Our message is, we will dance again,” says Omri. “Whatever happened to us, we are standing and dancing again. Terror cannot beat us.”

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PPE Medpro partners open to settlement over £122m COVID gowns contract breach

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PPE Medpro partners open to settlement over £122m COVID gowns contract breach

Partners of a company linked to Baroness Michelle Mone have said they are open to a possible settlement with the government after the company was found to have breached a £122m PPE contract.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) had accused PPE Medpro of providing 25 million “faulty”, non-sterile gowns during the COVID pandemic.

The High Court ruled earlier this month that it must pay back a £121.9m sum, the price of the gowns.

PPE Medpro, a consortium led by Lady Mone‘s husband Doug Barrowman, filed to enter administration earlier this month.

In a statement on Friday, Mr Barrowman said: “The consortium partners of PPE Medpro are prepared to enter into a dialogue with the administrators of the company to discuss a possible settlement with the government.”

PPE Medpro has spent £4.3m defending its position.

It said offers to settle on a no-fault basis had been made, including the remake of 25 million gowns, or a £23m cash equivalent, which were rejected.

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Sky’s Paul Kelso analyses scandal surrounding Baroness Mone

The consortium was awarded government contracts by the former Conservative administration to supply personal protective equipment (PPE) during the pandemic after Lady Mone recommended it to ministers.

It insists that it provided all 25 million gowns and disputes that the gowns were not sterile.

It is understood the partners want to resolve the issue, and administrators have been urged to approach the government to reach an agreement.

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Reeves welcomes ruling on PPE contract breach

Read more:
Can PPE Medpro afford to pay back govt?

Baroness Mone: I have no wish to rejoin Lords
Baroness Mone ‘should resign’ from Lords

In the High Court ruling, Mrs Justice Cockerill said the gowns “were not, contractually speaking, sterile, or properly validated as being sterile”. This meant they could not be used in the NHS.

Barristers for PPE Medro claimed it had been “singled out for unfair treatment” and accused the government of “buyer’s remorse”.

Michelle Mone recommended the firm, led by husband Doug Barrowman, to minsters. Pic: PA
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Michelle Mone recommended the firm, led by husband Doug Barrowman, to minsters. Pic: PA

It claimed the gowns had become defective because of the conditions they were kept in after being delivered. It also said the court made its ruling on a technicality.

Lady Mone branded the judgement a win for the “establishment”, while Mr Barrowman said it was a “travesty of justice”.

Baroness Mone, who created the lingerie brand Ultimo, was made a Conservative peer in 2015.

She now says she has “no wish to return” to the House of Lords.

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UK

Women risking breast cancer by ‘always putting ourselves last’, says Liz Hurley

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Women risking breast cancer by 'always putting ourselves last', says Liz Hurley

Liz Hurley has encouraged women to check themselves for breast cancer – and warned some are not because they “are scared that it’s self-indulgent to spend time on themselves”.

The British actress and model, who has been a global ambassador for the Estee Lauder Companies’ Breast Cancer Campaign for 30 years, told Sky News’ Jacquie Beltrao the demands of everyday life mean women “always put ourselves last”.

“We’re doing stuff for kids, for husbands, for mothers, for in-laws. There’s so much that we have to do that we tend to come last,” she said.

Hurley, whose grandmother died of breast cancer, said she finds it helps by thinking of breast checks as a way to “keep ourselves healthy in order to continue to take care of everybody else”.

That way, it “doesn’t seem self-indulgent or taking time away from something else, it seems really important”.

Checking one’s breasts “takes two minutes”, she added, or “about the same length of time as brushing your teeth”.

Hurley speaking to Sky's Jacquie Beltrao
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Hurley speaking to Sky’s Jacquie Beltrao

More than a third of women in the UK do not take up the first mammogram appointment they are offered, and a recent study of 500,000 women from Sweden found a similar non-attendance rate there.

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More than 11,000 people die from breast cancer every year in the UK, or 31 each day, Cancer Research UK said.

That makes it the second most common form of cancer death, accounting for 7% of all cancer deaths, the charity said.

Asked whether some of the messaging had “fallen on deaf ears”, Hurley said attending screenings, which are free on the NHS, is “definitely advised”, and she suggested all women should familiarise themselves with their breasts.

In the past, the illness was seen as “a disease for older ladies. And we didn’t understand that younger women also get diagnosed. That’s been a lot in the news lately”, Hurley said.

“There appear to be more women, younger women being diagnosed. And that could well be one of the reasons is that people are more breast aware, more self-aware.”

Read more on Sky News:
Men must ‘demand cancer test’
Warning of millions of new cancer cases

She told Ms Beltrao, who is a breast cancer survivor, people “have seen you on television talking about breast cancer”.

As a result of more awareness, she said, women have “begun to understand that it can never be too early to start checking your own breasts and to familiarise yourself [with them].

“When you’re younger and you’re not yet having regular mammograms, you do really have to be aware of your own breasts to be able to see if there’s a change, feel if there is a change and go to your doctor.”

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