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The commercial real estate market is headed for a severe collapse due in large part to sky-high interest rates and declining property values, according to a survey of investors.

Around two-thirds of those who responded to a Bloomberg News survey said they believe that the commercial real estate market will recover only after a crash.

When asked when they believe the price of office properties will hit bottom, 44% said they expect that to happen in the second half of next year while 22% said it will be in the first six months of 2024, according to Bloomberg News.

Just 6% of the 919 respondents said that prices would bottom out this year while 29% predicted that it would happen in 2025 or beyond.

The Fed has raised interest rates aggressively, which is increasing the cost of financing commercial properties at a time when there is also reduced need for them, which has hit rent levels.

Investors are bracing for a possible crisis triggered by default on $1.5 trillion in debt that is coming due by the end of 2025,.

Some $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks are set to mature in 2023, according to Trepp.

Over the next four years, commercial real estate properties must pay off debt maturities that will peak at $550 billion in 2027, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Earlier this month, a study released by economists from NYU Stern Business School, Columbia Business School and the National Bureau of Economic Research showed that vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many American cities.

In New York City, the vacancy rate was 22.2% in Q1 of 2023.

Office buildings in New York City — the world’s largest commercial real estate market — have lost $76 billion in value from their most recent sales prices, according to broker JLL.

Blackstone and RXR sold the office building at 1330 Avenue of the Americas for $320 million — a third less than the listing price in 2006.

Real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield recently predicted that there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space in the US by 2030.

The New York Fed said earlier this year that it was unclear when or if the commercial real estate sector would return to its prior strength.

While the residential rental market has bounced back, the retail and office markets have remained slack – largely due to the shift to remote work and online shopping, the bank said in a posting on its website.

Commercial rents in Manhattan are down a lot from where they were before the pandemic, and this weakening trend may continue as more and more commercial tenants roll off leases that were negotiated when demand for office and retail space was far stronger.

With Post wires

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End the ‘absolute scandal’ of new homes built without solar panels, government urged

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End the 'absolute scandal' of new homes built without solar panels, government urged

The government is being urged to end the “absolute scandal” of new homes being built without solar panels.

Doing so would cut both household bills and greenhouse gases that cause climate change, the Local Government Association (LGA) said in a new report.

Just four in 10 new homes in England come with solar power, according to separate figures from the industry body Solar Energy UK.

Although that is a significant three-fold increase over the space of a year, the LGA said making it mandatory would benefit bill-payers and the climate for years to come, saving people £440 per year.

The UK lags behind its neighbours in the European Union, which last year adopted new legislation demanding all new residential buildings come with solar panels from 2030.

Greenpeace UK called it an “absolute scandal that homes are built without rooftop solar panels in this day and age”.

Its campaigner, Lily Rose Ellis, said: “Given the soaring cost of electricity, our desperate need to cut planet-heating emissions, and the relatively low cost of installation to housebuilders, solar panels on all new builds should be mandatory.”

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Last year, Labour promised a “rooftop revolution” that would see millions more homes fitted with solar panels.

But they have been accused of wavering over proposals to make it mandatory, as it also courts the house-building industry to help it meet its target to build 1.5 million homes during this parliament.

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The LGA wants the government to allocate them long-term funding in the upcoming spending review so they can help the country meet net zero.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said they plan to “maximise the installation of solar panels on new homes” in its long-delayed new regulations, the Future Homes Standard, due later this year.

The Home Builders Federation said “Moving forward, to meet the ever more challenging carbon reductions set by government, we will see solar on the overwhelming majority of new homes, albeit it is not appropriate in every situation.”

Pylon rows

The push on solar power is part of the government’s broader plans to ensure all the UK’s electricity comes from green sources by 2030.

Electricity demand is also growing as the country switches to electric cars and heating, and builds more data centres.

All this requires more wind and solar farms, as well as 1,000 kilometres of new cables to carry the electricity from where it is generated – often a wind farm in the North Sea – to where it is used in urban areas far away.

In parts of the country like East Anglia, a row has been simmering over whether to run those cables overhead on pylons or, to protect countryside views, underground.

A hefty new report by the Institution of Engineering and Technology today weighed in on the debate, finding underground cables are on average 4.5 times more expensive than overhead lines.

Liam Hardy, head of research at thinktank Green Alliance, said: “Those costs need to go somewhere. They go on to all of our electricity bills. And of course, it’s the poorest in society for whom those bills make up a bigger percentage of their income.

He added: “What they want to see is value for money as we build out that clean infrastructure that we need.”

The government has promised communities disrupted by the new infrastructure that they should reap some of the benefits, including giving households near new pylons £2,500 off their energy bills over 10 years.

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UK-US trade talks ‘moving in a very positive way’, says White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt

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UK-US trade talks 'moving in a very positive way', says White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt

Trade talks between the UK and the United States are “moving in a very positive way”, according to the White House.

President Donald Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt spoke about the likelihood of the long-discussed agreement during a press briefing.

In Westminster, there are hopes such a deal could soften the impact of the Trump tariffs announced last month.

Leavitt told reporters: “As for the trade talks, I understand they are moving in a very positive way with the UK.

“I don’t want to get ahead of the president or our trade team in how those negotiations are going, but I have heard they have been very positive and productive with the UK.”

She said Mr Trump always “speaks incredibly highly” of the UK.

“He has a good relationship with your prime minister, though they disagree on domestic policy issues,” she added.

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“I have witnessed the camaraderie between them first hand in the Oval Office, and there is a deep mutual respect between our two countries that certainly the president upholds.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks during a press briefing at the White House April 28, 2025. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)
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White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said she was positive about a deal. Pic: AP

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden gave the UK’s position on the talks when speaking to Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips.

He said there was “a serious level of engagement going on at high levels” to secure a UK-US trade deal.

Mr McFadden is one of the most powerful members of Sir Keir Starmer’s government and a key ally of the prime minister.

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He was careful to not get ahead of developments, however, saying: “I think an agreement is possible – I don’t think it’s certain, and I don’t want to say it’s certain, but I think it’s possible.”

He went on to say the government wanted an “agreement in the UK’s interests” and not a “hasty deal”, amid fears from critics that Number 10 could acquiesce a deal that lowers food standards, for example, or changes certain taxes in a bid to persuade Donald Trump to lower some of the tariffs that have been placed on British goods.

Mr McFadden’s tone was more cautious than Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ last week.

She had been in the US and, speaking to Sky News business and economics correspondent Gurpreet Narwan, the chancellor said she was “confident” a deal could be done.

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‘We’re confident’, says Reeves

But she sought to play down fears that UK standards could be watered down, both on food and online safety.

“On food standards, we’ve always been really clear that we’re not going to be watering down standards in the UK and similarly, we’ve just passed the Online Safety Act and the safety, particularly of our children, is non-negotiable for the British government,” Ms Reeves said.

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women’s safety

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Sex offenders to be denied refugee status under plans to improve women's safety

Migrants convicted of sex offences in the UK or overseas will be unable to claim asylum under government plans to change the law to improve border security.

The Home Office announcement means foreign nationals who are added to the sex offenders register will forfeit their rights to protection under the Refugee Convention.

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As part of the 1951 UN treaty, countries are allowed to refuse asylum to terrorists, war criminals and individuals convicted of a “particularly serious crime” – which is currently defined in UK law as an offence carrying a sentence of 12 months or more.

The government now plans to extend that definition to include all individuals added to the Sex Offenders’ Register, regardless of the length of sentence, in an amendment to the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, which is currently going through parliament. It’s understood they also hope to include those convicted of equivalent crimes overseas.

Those affected will still be able to appeal their removal from the UK in the courts under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA
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More than 10,000 people have now been detected crossing the Channel. Pic: PA

It is unclear how many asylum seekers will be affected, as the government has been unable to provide any projections or past data on the number of asylum seekers added to the Sex Offenders’ Register.

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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Sex offenders who pose a risk to the community should not be allowed to benefit from refugee protections in the UK.

“We are strengthening the law to ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously.”

Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls Minister Jess Philips said: “We are determined to achieve our mission of halving violence against women and girls in a decade.

“That’s exactly why we are taking action to ensure there are robust safeguards across the system, including by clamping down on foreign criminals who commit heinous crimes like sex offences.”

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The Home Office would like voters to see this as a substantial change. But that’s hard to demonstrate without providing any indication of the scale of the problem it seeks to solve.

Clearly, the government does not want to fan the flames of resentment towards asylum seekers by implying large numbers have been committing sex crimes.

But amid rising voter frustration about the government’s grip on the issue, and under pressure from Reform – this measure is about signalling it is prepared to take tough action.

Conservatives: ‘Too little, too late’

The Conservatives claim Labour are engaged in “pre-election posturing”.

Chris Philp MP, the shadow home secretary, said: “This is too little, too late from a Labour government that has scrapped our deterrent and overseen the worst year ever for small boat crossings – with a record 10,000 people crossing this year already.

“Foreign criminals pose a danger to British citizens and must be removed, but so often this is frustrated by spurious legal claims based on human rights claims, not asylum claims.”

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Has Labour tackled migration?

The Home Office has also announced plans to introduce a 24-week target for appeal hearings (known as “first-tier tribunals”) to be held for rejected asylum seekers living in taxpayer-supported accommodation, or for foreign national offenders.

The current average wait is 50 weeks. The idea is to cut the asylum backlog and save taxpayers money – Labour have committed to end the use of asylum hotels by the end of this parliament.

It’s unclear how exactly this will be achieved, although a number of additional court days have already been announced.

The government also plans to crack down on fake immigration lawyers who advise migrants on how to lodge fraudulent asylum claims, with the Immigration Advice Authority given new powers to issue fines of up to £15,000.

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