Michael Penix Jr. and the receiving corps behind the country’s most high-power offense
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
SEATTLE — When coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb got to work at Washington in early December 2021, the facility was a bit of a ghost town. DeBoer planned to fill the bulk of his staff with several of his assistants from Fresno State, but five of them remained with the Bulldogs to see out their bowl game.
Only Grubb and cornerbacks coach/recruiting coordinator Julius Brown joined DeBoer immediately, leaving them to evaluate the roster to determine what to prioritize in recruiting and through the transfer portal. One thing that stood out to Grubb right away was how much talent there was at receiver. The production from Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk wasn’t eye-popping in 2021, but Grubb saw their potential.
There was just one problem.
“Rome, J-Mac and J.P. all were in the transfer portal or talking about transferring basically in the first week I was here,” Grubb said. “It’s just me and Kalen. Nobody else is here yet [on the offensive staff]. So, my first 10 days, all I did was watch film with those three guys and try to convince them on the reasons to stay.”
The pitch boiled down to this: DeBoer and Grubb had been successful everywhere they had been. Several receivers had put up big numbers in their offense and they had a vision for how to use all three to maximize their potential in different ways. Grubb showed them film of the offense from previous stops and how each player would fit in. Here’s a concept from Eastern Michigan. This is what they did at Fresno State. And, of course, there was the season DeBoer spent as the OC at Indiana in 2019, when the Hoosiers — the Indiana Hoosiers — ranked third in the Big Ten in offense.
Grubb’s intent was to get the receivers excited about the offense and understand how they’d be used, but as he showed the cutups from Indiana, Odunze couldn’t help but notice a certain left-handed quarterback.
“I was like, ‘Oh my goodness,'” Odunze said. “He’s placing the ball wherever he wants to every play.”
At around the same time, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. finalized his own transfer decision. After four years at Indiana, each of which ended prematurely due to injury, it was time for a fresh start. For Washington, which was in the market for a veteran quarterback, the stars were aligning.
“I had a lot of people calling me, a lot of people [direct messaging] me and stuff like that about transferring,” Penix said. “But I never answered. Once I heard from DeBoer, I knew where I wanted to be.”
Penix’s move to Washington couldn’t have worked out much better. The receivers stayed and over the past two seasons, the Huskies have been among the most explosive offenses in college football. This year, Washington ranks No. 1 nationally in total offense (569.4 yards per game), No. 1 in passing yards (446.4 ypg) and No. 3 in scoring (46.0 points per game), turning Penix into ESPN.com’s leading Heisman Trophy candidate in the process.
Penix can take a major step toward the Heisman on Saturday, when the No. 7 Huskies (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12) host No. 8 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) in a matchup of the nation’s two top-ranked offenses.
PENIX SHOWED SIGNS early he had a bright future in football.
His father played running back at Tennessee Tech and his uncle played at South Florida, so when he was old enough — around 4 or 5 years old — his parents signed him up. It was one of many sports he played to stay busy, growing up in Tampa, Florida.
As a freshman in high school, he earned his first scholarship offer — from nearby Florida Atlantic — preceding a standout career at Tampa Bay Tech, where he was the county player of the year.
For most of that time, Penix thought he was headed to the SEC. He committed to Tennessee under then-coach Butch Jones prior to his junior year in the spring of 2017 and spent the next two seasons preparing to go to Rocky Top. Then came the coaching change. Jones was out; Jeremy Pruitt was in.
“It was crazy. The new coach comes in and you’re like, ‘OK, I’m about to sign in a couple weeks,’ and you don’t hear anything from the coaching staff,” Penix said. Eventually Penix learned, through his high school coach, that his offer had been pulled. Instead, Tennessee signed J.T. Shrout, who made eight appearances in four years at UT, played the 2022 season at Colorado and is now at Arkansas State.
Left without many options so late in the recruiting process, Penix ultimately decided between Indiana and Florida State, choosing the Hoosiers, in part, because former UT graduate assistant Nick Sheridan was the quarterbacks coach in Bloomington.
“It was certainly a rapid process,” said Sheridan, who is now the tight ends coach at Washington. “But it was nice because at least for me, I had known Mike and his family for a long time. I think he had braces when we first met. He was just a kid.”
A kid with star potential. Penix earned playing time as a true freshman, but his season ended in October, while playing in his third game, when he suffered a torn anterior crucial ligament in a close loss to Penn State.
“That was my first time ever getting injured in my life,” Penix said. “I never had a sprained ankle or anything, so when I got an ACL tear — to be honest, going into college, I had never heard of an ACL tear. I didn’t know what that was.”
The rehab went about as well as it could have and Penix returned in time to compete for the starting job with two-year starter Peyton Ramsey in front of DeBoer, who arrived from Fresno State months earlier as the new offensive coordinator. In what was considered a surprise at the time, Penix beat out Ramsey.
“It wasn’t what Peyton didn’t do,” then-Indiana coach Tom Allen said at the time. “It was more of what I believe Mike can be.”
And in six starts that year, Penix showed flashes of what he could be, helping the Hoosiers to a 5-1 record in those games before a shoulder injury again ended his season prematurely. At the time, Penix’s QBR (81.6) was comparable to Clemson‘s Trevor Lawrence (82.0), Oregon’s Justin Herbert (77.5) and Iowa State‘s Brock Purdy (73.9), all of whom have since developed into franchise quarterbacks in the NFL.
The next two years followed a similarly frustrating script: He began the season as the starter only to see the season end in injuries (another torn ACL in 2020; a shoulder injury in 2021). By the time the 2021 season was winding down, Penix had graduated and knew it was time to move on.
“[The injuries were] my first time really seeing true adversity and I just had to understand that not everything’s going to be perfect and I’m going to have to persevere through a lot of things throughout my career — and I was able to,” Penix said. “It allowed me to get to where I’m at today, but it just gave me a different perspective of the game and just not take any play for granted.”
PENIX WAS UP front with Washington about his plan. He knew he had the talent to get a shot in the NFL, he just needed to prove he could stay healthy enough to earn that opportunity.
“He told us, ‘Hey, it’s my intention that I’m going to play one year and do really good and hopefully get drafted and move on,”’ Grubb said. “Because for Mike prior to [the 2022 season] he was like, ‘If things go well. I don’t want to risk getting hurt again.'”
The staff understood his logic and was happy to welcome him under those circumstances.
But before that, he had to win the job and earn the trust of his teammates. There was widely-held assumption that he was the heavy favorite to win the job after arriving in December, but the dynamics of the quarterback competition were interesting considering the other two players were the two-year returning starter (Dylan Morris) and ESPN’s former No. 1-ranked high school pocket passer (Sam Huard).
For Morris, what stood out immediately was how quickly Penix, who was already familiar with the new system having played for DeBoer, processed the game.
“From Day 1, I saw he was really talented throwing the ball, but it was the field vision,” Morris said. “That’s the thing I’ve come to understand about him and I really try to learn from him — his field vision is just on another level.
“I’m going through reads and am like, ‘OK, I’m allowed to throw this or that,’ but he’s alerting something that’s really not necessarily part of the progression. He just sees it and it’s kind of funny you ask him, ‘How’d you see that?’ ‘He’s like, I don’t know, I just saw it.’ I’m like, ‘Man, that’s pretty elite.'”
Penix wasn’t officially named the starter until about a week and a half before the Huskies’ 2022 opener against Kent State, but by that time the writing was on the wall. Shortly after, he was voted a team captain in a nearly unanimous player vote.
“We all kind of rallied behind him,” Odunze said. “And I feel like that gave him more confidence as well. But he just stepped up his leadership to another level just understanding that, hey, he’s going to be the leader of this offense and this team.”
After Washington went 4-8 the year before, the Huskies were a revelation in 2022. They reached the 11-win mark for the fifth time in school history, went 3-0 against ranked teams and capped the season with a win against Texas in the Valero Alamo Bowl to finish ranked No. 8 in the AP poll.
Penix led the nation in passing, finished No. 8 in the Heisman voting and, perhaps most importantly, he stayed healthy for the entire season. Short of winning the Pac-12, the season followed the script he hoped it would. Then he rewrote the ending.
Instead of opting out of the bowl game and declaring for the NFL draft — a reasonable route considering recent trends and his own injury history — Penix announced he was returning for another season.
“I just felt like we had unfinished business and there were more things that I wanted to accomplish and the more things I felt like this team could accomplish,” Penix said. “I knew I had the opportunity to be a part of it again, and I knew that just with another opportunity, we can do something great.”
To some degree, Penix’s understanding that he could make some money through name, image and likeness rules factored into the decision, but that was only part of it.
“This is one thing I love telling people, I think it’s the epitome of Mike, which is very different from — and not a lot of people would say this or report it or even admit it — but Mike made his decision prior to having any NIL deals in place,” Grubb said. “I just think that’s such a critical point of who Mike is that he wanted to be here and had enough trust in what was going to happen here. The reality was we knew something would happen [with NIL], but there were no contracts in place or ‘this is what it’s going to be’ or anything like that.”
Last week, Penix and Odunze became the first college football players to sign NIL deals with Adidas and will participate in brand marketing campaigns, the company announced. Penix also has deals with Beats by Dre, trading card company Panini America and local apparel company Simply Seattle, along with other opportunities lined up by UW’s NIL collective, Montlake Futures.
Penix’s decision to return had a domino effect with the team’s other top players, with at least five others — Bralen Trice, Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Tuli Letuligasenoa, Odunze and McMillan — also making public announcements they would return to school.
“I was going over everything I could, calculating everything I could, talking with my family, with my dad, who is heavily involved in that as well,” Odunze said of his decision. “I was going over everything, but in the back of my mind was always, ‘I’ll be coming back with Penix.'”
GRUBB’S EARLY VISION for how to use Odunze, McMillan and Polk has largely played out as prophesized. They made a strong case for the best trio of receivers in college football last season with a combined 195 catches for 2,937 yards with 22 touchdowns, perhaps rivaled only by Ohio State‘s Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming (185/2,947/30).
“They reset the bar completely here at Washington in terms of what it looks like to play receiver here,” receivers coach JaMarcus Shephard said. “And they’re trying to hold each other, let alone the young guys in the room, accountable to not only upholding but uplifting that standard every single day at practice.”
This year, they’ve taken it to a new level.
“I knew the offense, a lot of the plays and different coverages and different schemes. So I understood where I wanted my guys and where we had to get to in different areas of the field to be able to make those plays,” Penix said. “But now being in Year 2 now, everybody understands it. Everybody understands why Coach Grubb is changing the play or why he’s calling a certain play and the look that we want. It just allows everybody to play much faster and more on the same page.”
In Odunze, the Huskies have a prototypical No. 1 option. He’s a threat to stretch the field, but equally adept in the screen game or on underneath routes. ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Odunze as the No. 2 receiver in college football.
“I say this to everyone. Rome is a 10-year pro,” Grubb said. “I just don’t mean he catches really well — he could probably run for president, too. Responsible, tough, smart, personable. He’s the guy.”
But one of the keys to Washington’s success is how well the receivers complement each other. McMillan controls the middle of the field from the slot. Polk might be the best route runner.
The group got deeper in the offseason with the arrival of one-time UW commit Germie Bernard, who spent his freshman season in 2022 at Michigan State. Bernard’s 17 catches rank just behind McMillan (20) for fourth on the team, but had a breakout performance against Arizona on Sept. 30, when he led the team with eight catches for 98 yards.
Penix is among the national leaders in every meaningful statistical category despite exiting early in four of the five games because the score was already out of hand. Washington would rank in the top half of the country in scoring just using its first half scoring average (30.2 ppg).
FEW GAMES IN college football history have ever featured two offenses as explosive as Saturday’s game between Oregon and Washington.
Countering with their own Heisman candidate in quarterback Bo Nix, the Ducks rank No. 2 nationally in total offense (556.8 ppg), No. 1 in scoring margin (39.8 ppg) and No. 2 in scoring (51.6 ppg).
The teams’ combined 97.6 ppg is the most between teams 5-0 or better since 2008, and the highest combined scoring average entering a Pac-12 game all-time, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
It also marks the final time the schools will play as members of the Pac-12, before moving to the Big Ten as a package deal next season.
Given what is set to be impacted — College Football Playoff positioning, two Heisman campaigns, the final Pac-12 title race — this might be the most anticipated Oregon-Washington game of all-time and a chance for Penix to further cement his legacy at Husky Stadium.
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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