Connect with us

Published

on

As Labour eyes a return to power 13 years on from when it last held office, speculation is growing about when the next general election could be.

Sir Keir Starmer – who has set his sights on two terms in office to “rebuild Britain” – revealed at his party’s annual conference in Liverpool that he is preparing for a contest as soon as May.

But Rishi Sunak, who has spent recent weeks trying to reset his faltering premiership with major announcements on HS2 and net zero, has insisted a general election is “not something the country wants” at this moment.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

However, the prime minister could choose to go earlier than that, and will likely call one if and when he sees an advantage in doing so.

More on Rishi Sunak

But will that be spring, autumn or could he hold on until the bitter end?

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

When will the next general election be?

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Is this all because you’re scared of losing the election?

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

Watch live each week on Sunday at 8:30am on Sky channel 501, Freeview 233, Virgin 602, the Sky News website and app or YouTube.

Tap here for more

‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

Read More:
A general election isn’t far away – and Labour need to make Sir Keir Starmer look like a prime minister
Political parties eye general election after mixed results in triple by-election

Beth Rigby analysis: Can the Tories turn things around before the next election?

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

The prime minister used the Tory party conference in Manchester last month to turn things around with a series of long-term policy decisions, though it was somewhat overshadowed by the HS2 fiasco.

He has rejected accusations that he is a “man without a mandate”, having lost the Tory leadership election to Ms Truss last summer before being selected by some Tory MPs to replace her once she was ousted.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, team Sunak eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Click to subscribe to Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Published

on

By

Bitcoin treasury firms driving 0T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Bitcoin treasury firms driving 0T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

Investment firms with Bitcoin-focused treasuries are front-running global Bitcoin adoption, which may see the world’s first cryptocurrency soar to a $200 trillion market capitalization in the coming decade.

Institutions and governments worldwide are starting to recognize the unique monetary properties of Bitcoin (BTC), according to Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream and the inventor of Hashcash.

“$MSTR and other treasury companies are an arbitrage of the dislocation between the bitcoin future and todays fiat world,” Back wrote in an April 26 X post.

“A sustainable and scalable $100-$200 trillion trade front-running hyperbitcoinization. scalable enough for most big listed companies to move to btc treasury,” he added.

Hyperbitcoinization refers to the theoretical future where Bitcoin soars to become the largest global currency, replacing fiat money due to its inflationary economics and growing distrust in the legacy financial system.

Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back
Source: Adam Back

Related: Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Bitcoin’s price outpacing fiat money inflation remains the main driver of global hyperbitcoinization, Back said, adding:

“Some people think treasury strategy is a temporary glitch. i’m saying no it’s a logical and sustainable arbitrage. but not for ever, the driver is bitcoin price going up over 4 year periods faster than interest and inflation.”

Back’s comments come nearly two months after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Bitcoin reserve from BTC forfeited in government criminal cases.

Related: Serbia’s Prince Filip says Bitcoin is being stifled, expects huge rally

Global firms continue Bitcoin accumulation

Continued Bitcoin investments from the likes of Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, may inspire more global firms to follow suit.

Strategy’s approach is proving to be lucrative, with the firm’s Bitcoin treasury generating over $5.1 billion worth of profit since the beginning of 2025, according to Strategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor.

Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back
Source: Michael Saylor

Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, also known as “Asia’s MicroStrategy,”  adopted a similar strategy, since surpassing 5,000 BTC in total holdings on April 24, Cointelegraph reported.

As Asia’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Metaplanet plans to acquire 21,000 BTC by 2026.

US financial institutions may also have more confidence in adopting Bitcoin after the US Federal Reserve withdrew its 2022 guidance discouraging banks from engaging with cryptocurrency. “Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin,” Saylor said in response to the guidance withdrawal.

“Banks will now be supervised through normal processes, signaling a more open regulatory environment for digital asset integration,” Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19

Continue Reading

Politics

US crypto rules like ‘floor is lava’ game without lights — Hester Peirce

Published

on

By

<div>US crypto rules like 'floor is lava' game without lights — Hester Peirce</div>

<div>US crypto rules like 'floor is lava' game without lights — Hester Peirce</div>

SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.

“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.

The lava is crypto, says Peirce

Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.

“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.

Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. “To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.

Cryptocurrencies, SEC, United States
Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.

“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”

Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.

Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.

Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.

Related: Blockchain needs regulation, scalability to close AI hiring gap

Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.

He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 19 – 25

Continue Reading

Politics

Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat – but disillusionment could be eventual winner

Published

on

By

Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat - but disillusionment could be eventual winner

On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.

Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas – an old town that’s fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that’s fallen victim to Amazon.

But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.

Space Café director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded
Image:
Space Cafe director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded

One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them.

In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.

“People were very proud of their town… and that’s why people get upset and emotional as they remember that,” she says.

It’s this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.

More on Liverpool

Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour’s record in government so far.

Runcorn 2024 result
Image:
Runcorn 2024 result

Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.

A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were “made up” at last year’s election result but have been “astonished” since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern.

“Getting a taxi is two things, it’s either a luxury or a necessity… the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it,” he says.

But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK?

Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, or may not vote
Image:
Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is now looking at the Lib Dems and Greens – or may not vote at all

Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.

He’s now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates.

Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.

It’s in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly.

Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.

And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate.

It’s no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage’s party as “failed Tories”.

As a response to this, look no further than Reform’s recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership.

👉 Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app 👈

Read more:
Tough test for Labour after MP quits
MP jailed for late-night brawl
Local elections could re-shape politics

But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.

Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories.

The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.

But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas – an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets.

Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate – another local councillor – as the only person who can stop Reform.

Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community
Image:
Makeup artist Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community

The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community.

“I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone,” she says.

But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the “thousands of leaflets” through her door, she still thinks “they all say the same thing”.

One factor that doesn’t seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area’s former Labour MP left office.

Suspended Labour MP Mike Amesbury walks outside Chester Magistrates Court.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of punching a man in the street. Pic: Reuters

Mike Amesbury stepped down after being convicted of repeatedly punching a constituent in a late-night brawl outside a pub.

But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP’s local efforts, while also saying he was “very silly” to have acted in the way he did.

That may be putting it mildly.

But it’s hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday’s vote.

A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it.

Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election:

Catherine Anne Blaiklock – English Democrats
Dan Clarke – Liberal Party
Chris Copeman – Green Party
Paul Duffy – Liberal Democrats
Peter Ford – Workers Party
Howling Laud Hope – Monster Raving Loony Party
Sean Houlston – Conservatives
Jason Philip Hughes – Volt UK
Alan McKie – Independent
Graham Harry Moore – English Constitution Party
Paul Andrew Murphy – Social Democratic Party
Sarah Pochin – Reform UK
Karen Shore – Labour
John Stevens – Rejoin EU
Michael Williams – Independent

Continue Reading

Trending