When could the next general election be? The factors Rishi Sunak will be weighing up

Published

2 years ago

October 11, 2023

admin

As Labour eyes a return to power 13 years on from when it last held office, speculation is growing about when the next general election could be.

Sir Keir Starmer – who has set his sights on two terms in office to “rebuild Britain” – revealed at his party’s annual conference in Liverpool that he is preparing for a contest as soon as May.

But Rishi Sunak, who has spent recent weeks trying to reset his faltering premiership with major announcements on HS2 and net zero, has insisted a general election is “not something the country wants” at this moment.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

However, the prime minister could choose to go earlier than that, and will likely call one if and when he sees an advantage in doing so.

But will that be spring, autumn or could he hold on until the bitter end?

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

The prime minister used the Tory party conference in Manchester last month to turn things around with a series of long-term policy decisions, though it was somewhat overshadowed by the HS2 fiasco.

He has rejected accusations that he is a “man without a mandate”, having lost the Tory leadership election to Ms Truss last summer before being selected by some Tory MPs to replace her once she was ousted.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, team Sunak eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Click to subscribe to Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Politics

US and China soften trade rhetoric, giving analysts hope of market rebound

Published

6 hours ago

October 12, 2025

admin

US and China soften trade rhetoric, giving analysts hope of market rebound

Tensions between the two countries appear to have cooled off on Sunday, as representatives from both sides signal a willingness to negotiate.

Politics

Fears Trump may lose focus after praise for Gaza peace deal at Egypt summit

Published

7 hours ago

October 12, 2025

admin

Fears Trump may lose focus after praise for Gaza peace deal at Egypt summit

Sir Keir Starmer will on Monday join world leaders at a historic summit in Egypt to witness the signing of the Gaza peace plan to end two years of conflict, bloodshed and suffering, that has cost tens of thousands of lives and turned Gaza into a wasteland.

Travelling over to Egypt, flanked by his national security advisor Jonathan Powell, the prime minister told me it was a “massive moment” and one that is genuinely historic.

US President Donald Trump moved decisively last week to end this bloody war, pushing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas into a ceasefire as part of his 20-point peace plan.

In the flurry of the following 48 hours, Mr Starmer and another twenty or so leaders were invited to Egypt to bear witness to the signing of this deal, with many of them deserving some credit for the effort they made to bring this deal around, not least the leaders of Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, who pressed Hamas to sign up to this deal.

On Monday, the remaining 20 living hostages are finally set to be released, along with the bodies of another 28 who were either killed or died in captivity, and aid is due to flow back into a starving Gaza.

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed on 7 October 2023, with another 250 taken hostage. In the subsequent war, most of Gaza’s two million population has been displaced. More than 67,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian health officials

Then, the signing ceremony is due to take place on Monday afternoon in Sharm el-Sheikh. It will be a momentous moment after a long and bloody war.

But it is only just the beginning of a long process to rebuild Gaza and try to secure a lasting peace in the region.

The immediate focus for the UK and other nations will be to get aid into Gaza with the UK committing £20m on Monday for water, sanitation and hygiene services for Gazans.

But the bigger focus for the UK and other European allies is what happens after the hostages are released and Israel withdraws its troops.

Because what happens next is a much bigger and more complicated task: rebuilding Gaza; turning it into a terrorist-free zone; governing Gaza – the current plan is for a temporary apolitical committee; creating an international stabilisation force and all the tensions that could bring about – which troops each side would allow in; a commitment for Israel not to occupy or annex Gaza, even as Netanyahu makes plain his opposition to that plan.

The scale of the challenge is matched by the scale of devastation caused by this brutal war.

The prime minister will tomorrow set out his ambition for the UK to play a leading role in the next phase of the peace plan.

Back home the UK is hosting a three-day conference on Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction.

Last week, France hosted European diplomats and key figures from Middle Eastern countries, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and later this week, the German chancellor is hoping to organise a conference on the reconstruction of Gaza with the Egyptians.

But in reality, European leaders know the key to phase two remains the key to phase one: and that’s Donald Trump.

As one UK figure put it to me over the weekend: “There is lots of praise, rightly, for the US president, who got this over the line, but the big challenge for us post-war is implementing the plan. Clearly, Arab partners are concerned the US will lose focus”.

The prime minister knows this and has made a point, at every point, to praise Mr Trump.

His cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson learned that diplomatic lesson the hard way on Sunday when she was publicly lambasted by the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee for suggesting to my colleague Trevor Phillips that the UK “had played a key role behind the scenes” and failed to mention Mr Trump by name.

“I assure you she is delusional,” tweeted Governor Huckabee. “She can thank @realDonaldTrump anytime just to set the record straight”.

On Monday, leaders will rightly be praising Mr Trump for securing the breakthrough to stop the fighting and get the remaining hostages home.

But this is only the beginning of a very long journey ahead to push through the rest of the 19-point plan and stop the region from falling back into conflict.

Britain has, I am told, been playing a role behind the scenes. The PM’s national security adviser Mr Powell was in Egypt last week and has been in daily touch with his US counterpart Steve Witkoff, according to government sources. Next week the King of Jordan will come to the UK.

Part of the UK’s task will be to get more involved, with the government and European partners keen to get further European representation on Trump’s temporary governance committee for Gaza, which Tony Blair (who was not recommended or endorsed by the UK) is on and Mr Trump will chair.

The committee will include other heads of states and members, including qualified Palestinians and international experts.

As for the former prime minister’s involvement, there hasn’t been an overt ringing endorsement from the UK government.

It’s helpful to have Mr Blair at the table because he can communicate back to the current government, but equally, as one diplomatic source put it to me: “While a lot of people in the Middle East acknowledge his experience, expertise and contact book, they don’t like him and we need – sooner rather than later – other names included that Gulf partners can get behind.”

On Monday it will be the US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey that sign off on the peace plan they directly negotiated, as other Middle Eastern and European leaders, who have flown into Sharm el-Sheikh to bear witness, look on.

But in the coming days and weeks, there will need to be a big international effort, led by Mr Trump, not just to secure the peace, but to keep it.

Politics

US ambassador to Israel calls cabinet minister ‘delusional’ for claim UK played key role in Gaza peace deal

Published

8 hours ago

October 12, 2025

admin

US ambassador to Israel calls cabinet minister 'delusional' for claim UK played key role in Gaza peace deal

The US ambassador to Israel has called cabinet minister Bridget Phillipson “delusional” after she told Sky News the UK played a key role in the Gaza peace deal.

The education secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that Sir Keir Starmer’s presence at a signing ceremony for the ceasefire deal in Egypt on Monday “demonstrates the key role that we have played”.

Politics latest: Phillipson announces crackdown on antisemitism at UK universities

She did not say exactly what the UK’s role in the ceasefire, largely attributed to Donald Trump, is or was.

But she added: “We have played a key role behind the scenes in shaping this.

“It’s right that we do so because it’s in all of our interest, including our own national interest, that we move to a lasting peace in the region.

“These are complex matters of diplomacy that we are involved in. But we do welcome and recognise the critical role that the American government played in moving us to this point.”

However, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, reposted the Sky News clip of Ms Phillipson’s comments and said: “I assure you she’s delusional.

“She can thank Donald Trump anytime just to set the record straight.”

Mr Huckabee was part of the negotiating team for the peace deal, with Mr Trump calling the former Arkansas governor “AMAZING” as he said he “worked so hard, and did so much, to bring about peace in the Middle East”.

In August, Mr Huckabee said the UK and other European nations who said they would declare a Palestinian state were “having the counterproductive effect that they probably think that they want”.

Israel: UK did not play key role in peace deal

Israel’s deputy foreign affairs minister, Sharren Haskell, told Sky News the UK played “the opposite” of a key role in the peace deal after the Palestinian state declaration, which eventually happened in September.

She accused the PM’s initial threat “at a very sensitive time” in July of having “pushed Hamas to embolden their position and to refuse a ceasefire two months ago”.

“I think that right now, the quiet that was given during the negotiation, and to President Trump, had probably played a bigger role than what the government had done two months ago,” she said.

“The message that the UK government has sent Hamas was the message that: the longer they continue this war, they will be rewarded.

“I mean, you must understand that when a terrorist organisation is thanking you. You are on the wrong side of history.”

Ms Phillipson stood by the decision to declare a Palestinian state, saying it was “the right thing to do”.

Husam Zomlot, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, told Sky News it was a “moment of leadership” for the UK to declare a Palestinian state, and a “responsibility to begin to correct a century of the gravest historic injustices committed against our people”.

He added: “That moment three weeks ago, when the UK did recognise, is a moment when we can say that the wheels of history are turning in a different direction.”

No plans for British troops on the ground

The education secretary also told Sky News the government has “no plans” to put British troops into Israel or Gaza as part of a stabilisation force after the ceasefire.

The US military will help establish a multinational force in Israel, known as a civil-military coordination centre, which is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the UAE.

On Friday, US officials said up to 200 US troops already based in the Middle East will be moved to Israel to help monitor the ceasefire in Gaza.

The day before, President Trump announced Israel and Hamas had “signed off on the first phase” of a peace plan he unveiled last week.

Aid trucks have been gathering in Egypt to cross into Gaza after months of warnings by aid groups of famine in parts of the territory.

In Israel, the remaining hostages are due to be returned from Gaza by Hamas on Monday under the first phase of the peace plan. Twenty are believed to still be alive, 26 have been declared dead, while the fate of two is unknown.

The ceasefire agreement has been made two years after Hamas stormed Israel on 7 October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

Israel’s military offensive has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN deems reliable.