When could the next general election be? The factors Rishi Sunak will be weighing up

Published

2 years ago

October 11, 2023

admin

As Labour eyes a return to power 13 years on from when it last held office, speculation is growing about when the next general election could be.

Sir Keir Starmer – who has set his sights on two terms in office to “rebuild Britain” – revealed at his party’s annual conference in Liverpool that he is preparing for a contest as soon as May.

But Rishi Sunak, who has spent recent weeks trying to reset his faltering premiership with major announcements on HS2 and net zero, has insisted a general election is “not something the country wants” at this moment.

UK general elections have to be held no more than five years apart, with the maximum term of a parliament five years from the day it first met.

The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019 and will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024, with polling day expected to take place 25 days later (not counting any bank holidays or weekends).

This means the next election will take place by the end of January 2025 at the absolute latest.

However, the prime minister could choose to go earlier than that, and will likely call one if and when he sees an advantage in doing so.

But will that be spring, autumn or could he hold on until the bitter end?

“I am absolutely clear it will and should be the autumn,” Conservative peer and pollster Lord Robert Hayward told Sky News.

“The biggest drag for the Tory party are the events of 2022, therefore what they need to do is distance themselves from that as much as possible.

“Coinciding with that, the financial assessments are that the picture will be better in autumn 2024 on a worldwide basis. If America reduces interest rates, it’s likely Europe and Britain will follow, so an autumn 2024 election is economically more attractive.”

Lord Hayward added that Mr Sunak also “needs more time” to establish his leadership style and prove he is capable of managing the country, having promised to bring stability as he staked his premiership on five key pledges relating to the economy, immigration and the NHS.

Sky’s election analyst Professor Michael Thrasher comes to a similar conclusion.

PM ‘may copy Thatcher’s wait and see strategy’

“The Conservatives trail Labour by 18 points in the latest polling, a swing sufficient to give Starmer a healthy majority at the coming election. A series of record-breaking by-election defeats this parliament confirm the Tory predicament. Clawing back the deficit, and recovering trust among electors is going to take time.”

Prof Thrasher says while the local elections in May next year could see the Conservatives lose seats and councils, the London mayoral elections could see a different dynamic, particularly among motorists, with Sunak rowing back on his green agenda.

“Sunak may copy Margaret Thatcher’s wait-and-see strategy. The May local election results in both 1983 and 1987 were favourable and she went for general elections a month later.

“But Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is so large that this option might not be available. This suggests a contest in autumn 2024, late September/early October, is favourite.

“Better economic indicators, a possible reduction in illegal Channel crossings and a global outlook that favours incumbents might be the best that the Conservatives can hope for.”

The bleak assessments are a remarkable turnaround for a party that just four years ago won a thumping 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson.

But the scandals that led to his downfall, and the economic chaos unleashed by the Liz Truss mini budget – all against the back drop of rising NHS waiting lists and a cost of living crisis – is why some strategists believe a Tory defeat at the next general election is all but inevitable.

‘No good reason to go early’

Or, as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice put it: “Frankly, they are heading for crucifixion.”

He believes the Tories are facing electoral disaster on the scale of 1997, when after 18 years in power the party, led by Sir John Major, was defeated in a landslide by Labour’s Sir Tony Blair.

He told Sky News: “At the moment there is no good reason for them to do anything other than play it long.

“They are 17 points behind in the polls, they have made no discernible progress in the last 12 months.

“They will want more time to make economic progress and bring down NHS waiting lists.”

He said that, despite the noise from Conservatives about immigration, the economy “is the most important issue for voters”, followed by the NHS.

He added: “From a personal point, if you are prime minister and the odds are you are never going to be prime minister again, you are going to want to maximise your term.”

But while the consensus has long been that an autumn election would be the safest bet for Mr Sunak, recent reports have suggested the idea of a spring ballot is gaining traction.

Although the Tory leader has remained confident about his chances of winning the next election, some Conservative MPs have accepted they are headed for opposition – and believe an earlier vote could minimise losses.

That is the view of Lord Daniel Finkelstein, a former adviser to Sir John Major, who warned there are costs of holding onto power.

Spring election ‘could minimise Tory losses’

“When I look back on the 1997 election, I think one thing we could have done to mitigate the size of our defeat is to have gone slightly earlier,” he told Sky News.

Lord Finkelstein said while he can “understand the temptation” for Mr Sunak to wait it out in the hope of turning things around, that “serendipitous occasion” may not occur and things could even get worse.

He pointed to potentially bruising local election results in May 2024 and the fact that Channel crossings are likely to rise over the summer, while the mortgage crisis may deepen as more people face the end of their current fixed rates.

This would be damaging going into an election where opposition parties will be making the case for change, and the Tories’ best bet is to argue “the country is on the right track, and we are turning things around”.

He said: “It’s very hard for any prime minister to call an election which they are quite likely to lose. While the temptation to go on will be strong, putting it off will make things more difficult if more problems arise.

“The timing of the election will not be the predeterminer of the outcome. It will be the fact that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss let down the country and it will be very difficult to turn that around.

“I would tell him to pick the moment when the economy is strongest, be realistic and go with the idea of being in opposition rather than victory.”

‘Spring election rumours keeping Labour on their toes’

Lord Finkelstein stressed a Conservative victory is not impossible.

The prime minister used the Tory party conference in Manchester last month to turn things around with a series of long-term policy decisions, though it was somewhat overshadowed by the HS2 fiasco.

He has rejected accusations that he is a “man without a mandate”, having lost the Tory leadership election to Ms Truss last summer before being selected by some Tory MPs to replace her once she was ousted.

As our political editor Beth Rigby explains, team Sunak eye a narrow path to victory on economic recovery coupled with the message “we’re back on track don’t risk Labour”.

Labour, for their part, have insisted they aren’t complacent despite their significant lead in the polls.

They have been preparing for government for some time, and have factored in the possibility of a spring election.

“Our job is to be ready whenever it comes, and we will be,” said one Labour source.

Click to subscribe to Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts

Sir John Curtice is not convinced by the argument for a spring election, saying he believes leaks suggesting it’s a possibility are designed “to keep the Opposition on their toes.. creating uncertainty around campaign plans and policy announcements”.

“If the Labour lead is halved to eight or nine points, then there may be an argument to say ‘let’s go early, we might lose but we will keep some seats, there could even be the possibility of a hung parliament’. But the Tories are at rock bottom”, he said.

However, he agrees holding onto power for too long is also a gamble.

“There is a risk the economy will get even worse by November,” he said. “I think October is as long as they will have before having to admit the game is up.”

Politics

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish classmates, former Dulwich pupil claims

Published

4 hours ago

December 6, 2025

admin

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish classmates, former Dulwich pupil claims

Nigel Farage sang antisemitic songs to Jewish schoolmates – and had a “big issue with anyone called Patel”, a former schoolfriend has claimed.

Jean-Pierre Lihou, 61, was initially friends with the Reform UK leader when he arrived at Dulwich College in the 1970s, at the time when Mr Farage is accused of saying antisemitic and other racist remarks by more than a dozen pupils.

But Mr Lihou, who is half-German and said he went for a couple of sleepovers at Mr Farage’s parent’s house, told Sky News’ Amanda Akass that it “soon become obvious he was not quite the same person I thought he was”.

Warning: This article contains references to antisemitic slurs which readers may find offensive

Another former pupil, Stefan Benarroch, who was in the year below Mr Farage and is Jewish, said that Mr Farage was “not a kid” when he made alleged antisemitic remarks and his behaviour was “unacceptable in any era”.

Mr Farage has said he “never directly racially abused anybody” at Dulwich and said there is a “strong political element” to the allegations coming out 49 years later. Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has called the ex-classmates “liars”.

A Reform UK spokesman accused Sky News of “scraping the barrel” and were “desperate to stop us winning the next election”.

‘People were hurt by it‘

Mr Lihou told Sky News Mr Farage used to direct antisemitic songs at his Jewish friend Peter Ettedgui, who is one of the main former classmates to have spoken out against the Reform leader.

“He used to sing: ‘Gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’ – and the rest of those horrible words,” he said.

“You think, when somebody is obviously distressed by that, why do you keep doing it? The humour wears off… when you see this, and because I’m German I’m particularly sensitive to anyone making that kind of analogy.”

Mr Lihou also said Mr Farage used to “pass comment on anyone that wasn’t white, particularly Indians”.

He said: “He had a great big issue with anyone called Patel because I think the school had at one point more Patels than Smiths. That seemed to irk him.

“Anybody who wasn’t white, he was likely to have a comment pretty much throughout my school life, especially Jewish people. I think that was the worst thing because you could obviously see that people were hurt by it.”

‘He was truly ghastly’

Mr Benarroch, who was also friends with Mr Ettedgui, told Sky News: “His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College.”

He said he would never have come across Mr Farage “had I not been a Jew”.

“He and his minions – and one of his minions, in particular, was my tormentor at Dulwich – they would spot us coming out of Jewish prayers on a Friday,” he added.

“So his behaviour at 16, 17, 18 – and you are a man at 18, you’re technically an adult – was truly appalling. So we’re not talking about a kid here.”

The property developer said the racism allegations are “not just about Nigel Farage as a teenager, this is also about Nigel Farage as an adult”.

“His behaviour as a teenager was unacceptable by any standards and in any era. He was truly ghastly at Dulwich College,” he added.

‘These things don’t leave you’

Mr Benarroch, who is no longer a practising Jew, added: “I was terrified of his bullies, he had these guys hanging around with him who were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys.

“I don’t recall ever having direct contact with Nigel Farage, but certainly I was very much a witness to his tormenting of others, especially Peter Ettudgui.

“He [Mr Farage] was so extreme, these things don’t leave you, they don’t leave your body, as such.”

On Thursday, Mr Farage launched into a tirade at the BBC after one of its reporters asked about the claims, with the politician reading out a letter he said was from someone he went to school with.

He quoted the unnamed Jewish pupil as saying there was “plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter” and said sometimes it “was offensive, but never with malice”.

The problem for Farage is the story is only getting bigger

Amanda Akass

Political correspondent

@amandaakass

Allegations about Nigel Farage’s schooldays have hit the headlines since the early days of the Brexit campaign in 2013.

He has always dismissed such claims as ‘politically motivated’ and insisted recently he has ‘never directly racially abused anybody’.

But now with the prospect of Prime Minister Farage looking ever more likely – former classmates have decided now is the moment to speak up about their concerns, almost fifty years later.

The allegations are deeply shocking. Jean-Pierre Lihou told me Farage used to sing a sickening song about the Nazi gas chambers, which began ‘gas them all, gas them out, gas them all, into the chambers they crawl’.

Lihou claims Farage said non-white pupils should be sent home and had a particular issue with the fact that at one point the school had more pupils with the surname ‘Patel’ than ‘Smith’.

Stephan Benarroch meanwhile told my colleague Ali Fortescue he witnessed Farage ‘tormenting others’ and was himself ‘terrified’ by Farage’s ‘gang of bullies’ who he claims ‘were instructed to have a go at us as these young, nice Jewish boys’ on their way back from Friday prayers.

The Guardian – whose investigation last month prompted a renewed focus on the issue – reports that 28 former teachers and pupils have come forward to report witnessing antisemitic or racist behaviour from him.

A group of Holocaust survivors are now calling on Farage to either admit whether he said the words he’s accused of saying, and apologise, or accuse those who said he did of lying.

His political opponents – battered for so long in the polls by Reform UK – are keen to pile on the pressure too. Both Labour and Liberal Democrats have urged him to ‘come clean’ and apologise.

The Tories have also argued that if it’s true, Farage should say sorry, though Kemi Badenoch has certainly been more nuanced in her response than other political rivals, making the point that what most people may say as teenagers is very different from what they would say as adults.

The problem for Farage is that far from going away – the story is only getting bigger.

He’s clearly hugely frustrated by this – as evidenced by the angry tirade he launched against the BBC this week when their reporter asked about the allegations. He argued it’s ‘double standards’ to criticise what he was alleged to have said 49 years ago, at a time when broadcasters were still showing blackface in The Black and White Minstrel Show. He also read out a letter he said had been sent to him by a Jewish contemporary pupil, who described ‘plenty of macho, tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter’ – which, while sometimes ‘offensive’, was ‘never with malice’.

Reform have hit back against our story in bullish fashion, accusing Sky News of scraping the barrel in a desperate attempt to stop Reform UK winning the next election.

Of course the question of who will win the next election isn’t down to journalists – but voters.

And the jeopardy for Reform is whether these allegations will deter enough potential voters – particularly wavering Tories – to disrupt what has thus far been an unstoppable wave of support.

‘It was not schoolboy banter’

Mr Benarroch rejected Mr Farage’s claim it was just “schoolboy banter” and said he has continued to show the same views, just in a less obvious way.

“You tell that [that it was banter] to the guys, to Peter who had ‘Hitler should have gassed you’ said to him,” he said.

“Peter Ettedgui was tormented by Nigel Farage.

“The point I’m making is, he’s a grown man now. He’s a highly intelligent politician with nuance when it suits him, and so clearly he’s not going around saying ‘Hitler should have gassed you all’, obviously.”

The former Dulwich student said Mr Farage had “kept the most disgraceful company imaginable” in the US during the 2010s on radio and TV shows.

He specifically named Rick Wiles, a far-right American conspiracy theorist whose YouTube channel was banned in 2020 after calling Donald Trump’s impeachment a “Jew coup”.

Mr Benarroch, who said he is not part of any political party, said “there is no political motivation” behind his allegations, but accused Reform and Mr Farage of making “a political statement” by calling them liars.

On Thursday, Mr Farage said he had received multiple letters from former pupils in support of him.

He said a letter from a Jewish schoolmate, said: “While there was plenty of macho tongue-in-cheek schoolboy banter, it was humour, and yes, sometimes it was offensive… but never with malice.

“I never heard him [Farage] racially abuse anyone.”

A Reform UK spokesman “accused Sky News of scraping the barrel”.

He said: “This ridiculous interview has nothing to do with Nigel Farage himself but apparently someone who knew him at school almost 50 years ago.

“Sky News are desperate to stop us winning the next election.”

Politics

Bitcoin treads water at $90K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined

Published

14 hours ago

December 5, 2025

admin

Bitcoin treads water at K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined

Cryptocurrency markets saw another week of consolidation following last week’s long-awaited market recovery.

While Bitcoin (BTC) remained above the key $90,000 psychological level, investor sentiment continued to be dominated by “fear,” with a marginal improvement from 20 to 25 within the week, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index.

In the wider crypto space, the Ether (ETH) treasury trade appears to be unwinding, as the monthly acquisitions by Ethereum digital asset treasuries (DATs) fell 81% in the past three months from August’s peak.

Still, the biggest corporate Ether holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, continued to amass ETH, while other treasury firms carried on with their fundraising efforts for future acquisitions.

*Fear & Greed index, all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap*

Investors are also awaiting the key interest rate decision during the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday to provide more cues about monetary policy leading into 2026.

Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 62% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

*Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com*

Ethereum treasury trade unwinds 80% as handful of whales dominate buys

The Ethereum treasury trade appears to be unwinding as monthly acquisitions continue to decline since the August high, though the largest players continue to scoop up billions of the Ether supply.

Investments from Ethereum DATs fell 81% in the past three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 ETH in November, according to Bitwise, an asset management firm.

“ETH DAT bear continues,” wrote Max Shennon, senior research associate at Bitwise, in a Tuesday X post.

Despite the slowdown, some companies with stronger financial backgrounds continued to accumulate the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency or raise funds for future purchases.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ether holder, accumulated about 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion over the past month, completing 62% of its target to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, according to data from the Strategicethreserve.

BitMine holds an additional $882 million worth of cash according to the data aggregator, which may signal more incoming Ether accumulation.

*Top corporate Ether holders. Source:* *Strategicethreserve.xyz*

Continue reading

Citadel causes uproar by urging SEC to regulate DeFi tokenized stocks

Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the US Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance regarding tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users.

Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities.

It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks.

“Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.”

Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks, has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space.

Continue reading

Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk “VC coin”

Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.

Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value, which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.

According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.

Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He identified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana (SOL) and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.

Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token.

*Monad’s MON token up 40% since launch. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Continue reading

$25 billion crypto lending market now led by “transparent” players: Galaxy

The crypto lending market has become more transparent than ever, led by the likes of Tether, Nexo and Galaxy, and has just hit an aggregate loan book of nearly $25 billion outstanding in the third quarter.

The size of the crypto lending market has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of 2024, according to Galaxy Research. Its latest quarter puts it at its highest since its peak in Q1 2022.

However, it has yet to return to its peak of $37 billion at that time.

The main difference is the number of new centralized finance lending platforms and much more transparency, said Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

Thorn said on Sunday that he was proud of the chart and the transparency of its contributors, adding that it was a “big change from prior market cycles.”

*The crypto lending landscape has seen many new platforms in the past three years. Source: Alex Thorn*

Continue reading

Portal to Bitcoin raises $25 million and launches atomic OTC desk

Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has raised $25 million in funding amid the launch of what it describes as an atomic over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk.

According to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the company raised $25 million in a round led by digital asset lender JTSA Global. The fundraise follows previous investments by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Arrington Capital and others.

Alongside the fresh funding, the company rolled out its Atomic OTC desk, promising “instant, trustless cross-chain settlement of large block trades.” The newly deployed service is reminiscent of crosschain atomic swaps offered by THORChain, Chainflip, and more Bitcoin-focused systems such as Liquality and Boltz.

What sets Portal to Bitcoin apart is its focus on the Bitcoin-anchored crosschain OTC market for institutions and whales, along with its tech stack. “Portal provides the infrastructure to make Bitcoin the settlement layer for global asset markets, without bridges, custodians, or wrapped assets,” said Chandra Duggirala, founder and CEO of Portal.

Decentralization — *Portal to Bitcoin team members, from left to right: co-founder and chief technology officer Manoj Duggirala, founder and CEO Chandra Duggirala, and co-founder George Burke. Source: Portal to Bitcoin*

Continue reading

DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Canton (CC) token fell 18%, marking the week’s biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Starknet (STRK) token, down 16% on the weekly chart.

*Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama*

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.