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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to be $750,000 by 2026. Heres how and why. 9118 Total views 19 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksLove him or hate him, when Arthur Hayes speaks, people listen.

Last week, as a guest on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Hayes made the case for why he believes Bitcoin (BTC) price will hit $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

Hayes said:I absolutely agree that there is going to be a major financial crisis, probably as bad or worse than the great depression, sometime near the end of the decade; before we get there, were gonna have, I think, the largest bull market in stocks, real estate, crypto, art, you name it, that weve ever seen since WW2.

Hayes cites the nearly predictable response of the United States government rushing in to intervene in every economic crisis with a bail-out as a key catalyst behind the structural problems in the U.S. economy.

He explained that this essentially creates an endless cycle of central bank printing, which leads to inflation and prevents the economy from going through natural market cycles of growth and correction. We all have collectively agreed that the government is there essentially to attempt to remove the business cycle. Like, there should never be bad things that happen to the economy, and if there are, we want the government to come in and destroy the free market. So, every time weve had a financial crisis over the past 80 years. What happens? The government rushes in, and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.

Lets take a quick look at a few of the catalysts that Hayes believes will back Bitcoins move into six-figure territory. Mounting debt and out of control inflation.

According to Hayes, mounting government debt, a large amount that needs to be rolled over and diminishing productivity can only be addressed with money printing. While monetary expansion does lead to bull markets, the consequence tends to be high inflation. In the first instance, it creates a massive bull market in stocks, crypto, real estate, things that have a fixed supply, maybe theyre productive and have some earnings. But after that, were going to find out that, actually, the government cant save everything. It cant just print as much money as they think to try to save themselves by fixing the yield and price of their bonds, and were going to get a generational collapse.

Hayes expects a massive top at some point in 2026, followed by a great depression-like situation by the end of the decade.The U.S. government bankrupted the banking system

When asked about future contributors to inflation, Hayes zoned in on the $7.75 trillion in U.S. debt that must be rolled over by 2026 and the yield curve inversion in U.S. bonds.

Traditionally, China, Japan and other nations were the main buyers of U.S. debt, but this is not the case anymore a change that Hayes believes will exacerbate the situation in the states.

Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher?

Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring. Take a look at the top right quadrant of historical interest rate regimes.

It’s basically empty. pic.twitter.com/P6MQnCU73N Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 4, 2023

According to Hayes, the U.S. banking system is functionally insolvent because the regulators made the rules in such a way that it was profitable from an accounting perspective, not an economic perspective, to essentially take in deposits and buy low-yielding Treasurys, and they could do it with almost infinite leverage and a few basis points differing in the change of the price, and everyone makes a lot of money and gets a big bonus. The banks collectively bought all these treasuries in 2021, and obviously, the price went down a lot since then, and thats why we have the regional banking crisis.

The largest concern expressed by Hayes is that at a structural level, the U.S. banking system cannot buy more debt because it cannot afford to because it is structurally insolvent. The Federal Reserve has committed to doing quantitative tightening, so its not accumulating more Treasurys.

Hayes explained that the market is digesting this, and the nuance here is that despite high rates on U.S. Treasurys, gold prices remain high and certain market participants who previously were treasury buyers are disinterested.

Currently, banks struggle to attract deposits, and the difficulty of matching their deposit rates to the current rates available in the market creates revenue and debt management stress at a level that could become critical to the function of the entire banking system. Like many cryptocurrency advocates, Hayes believes that its in times like this that a certain cohort of investors begins to look at different investment options, including Bitcoin. Hayes view on why Bitcoin is destined for $750,000

Despite what appears to be a generally dismal outlook on the global and U.S. economy, Hayes still expects Bitcoin price to outperform, placing a target estimate in the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

Hayes expects Bitcoin to continue:Chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year as we get to some sort of financial disturbance and people recognize that real rates are negative. If the economy is growing at a nominal rate of 10%, but Im only getting 5% or 6%, even though its high, people on the margin are going to start buying other stuff, crypto being one of those things.

Coming into 2024, Hayes said either a financial crisis will push rates closer to 0%, or the government will keep raising rates, but not as fast as governments spend money and people continue looking for better returns elsewhere.

The eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., Europe and perhaps Hong Kong, plus the halving event, could push the price to a new all-time high at $70,000 in June or July of 2024. Regaining the all-time high by the end of 2024 is when the real fun starts and the real bull market starts, and Bitcoin enters the 750,0000 to $1 million on the upside.

When asked whether the estimated price level would stick, Hayes agreed that a 70% to 90% drawdown would occur in BTC price, just like it has after each bull market.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Federal Reserve # Central Bank # Bitcoin Price # Hyperinflation # Markets # Stocks # Inflation # Interest Rates

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Reform’s been pretty quiet since Labour started exploring Danish migration model – and this is why

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Reform's been pretty quiet since Labour started exploring Danish migration model - and this is why

Denmark is regularly ranked as one of the happiest countries in the world – with a cosy international reputation as the home of hygge and Lego, the idealistic fictional prime minister Birgitte Nyborg in Borgen and the woolly jumpers of TV detective Sarah Lund. 

But that warmth does not extend to asylum seekers – and in recent years the country has developed some of the toughest illegal migration policies in Europe, despite being led for six years by a centre-left politician.

PM Mette Frederiksen’s “zero refugees” policy is not just popular – it has enabled her to successfully face down her right-wing opponents.

Copenhagen. iStock file pic
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Copenhagen. iStock file pic

The number of successful asylum claims in Denmark has fallen to a 40-year low – and 95% of failed claimants are deported.

Facing a rampant Reform UK and plummeting approval ratings amid explosive public anger over small boat crossings and asylum hotels, it’s no wonder Sir Keir Starmer and his team are desperate to learn from their example.

Sir Keir and Ms Frederiksen are closely aligned on issues of defence and security – standing side by side at meetings of the Coalition of the Willing and united in their staunch support for Ukraine.

Now the UK – like many other European countries – is explicitly modelling itself on the Danish approach to migration too.

Sir Keir Starmer and his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen. Reuters file pic
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Sir Keir Starmer and his Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen. Reuters file pic

I understand that, since she was appointed two months ago, new Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has been looking at Denmark’s policies across the board – but there’s particular interest in their tight restrictions on family reunification, and the use of temporary visas for successful asylum seekers (which become invalid if their home countries are regarded as safe to return to).

Home Office officials recently travelled to Copenhagen to learn from their Danish counterparts ahead of a major shake-up of the asylum system later this month.

The Sunday Times reports this could see successful asylum seekers forced to repay the costs of their accommodation and benefits – and they will only be accepted if they speak a high standard of English and have no criminal record.

Reuters file pic
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Reuters file pic

This focus on the Danish model has been enthusiastically welcomed by Red Wall MPs like Jo White from Bassetlaw.

“We came into government in 2024 saying that we’re going to be tackling this issue head on and that’s what I promised my constituents,” she told me.

“We have seen the growth of Reform who are solely focused on this. And if we are going to fill the space where we can actually deliver on our priorities, we have to tackle the small boats and the asylum system head on.

“Denmark is seen as one of the toughest countries in Europe for dealing with asylum claims. And what’s even more interesting is that it’s a democratic socialist leadership. They had to tackle this issue when they came into power because the fight was with the far right who were leading on this issue, and they recognised that they had to manage the process in order to be able to focus on delivering their policies.”

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. PA file pic
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Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. PA file pic

It’s an issue which increasingly splits the party. Many on the left are deeply alarmed about the UK following a more draconian Danish path – with MPs like Nadia Whittome and Clive Lewis describing their ideas as “hardcore”, “dangerous”, “far right” and in some cases “racist”.

Some of the most controversial policies include confiscating valuable jewellery from migrants crossing the border and demolishing apartment blocks where more than 50% of residents are of what they define as “non-Western” backgrounds.

It seems vanishingly unlikely those more extreme ideas will be on the agenda for Ms Mahmood and her team.

But she’s a tough operator. What’s striking about the week’s revelations about Denmark is how little comment there’s been from either Reform UK or the Conservatives.

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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. PA file pic
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. PA file pic

Yes, it’s recess. But there’s also an uncomfortable feeling that the right-wing parties thoroughly agree with the home secretary’s robust approach.

If she’s successful in bringing down the numbers (and that’s a huge if), Reform’s key attacks on the government would be largely neutralised.

Some experts and asylum charities argue the Danish approach would fail to translate to the UK – with desperate refugees drawn to Britain because they speak English and have existing networks of family and friends here.

Steve Smith of Care for Calais said: “The deterrence isn’t going to work, because you’re dealing with people who are fleeing something far worse.

“These are desperate people and trying to put in desperate measures isn’t going to work, because those desperate measures can never be as desperate.”

But Ms Mahmood has promised to do “whatever it takes” to get a grip on the issue, and it seems she’s prepared to look at increasingly radical solutions to do so.

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US

Ghislaine Maxwell’s emails from minimum-security jail leaked – amid claims of ‘VIP treatment’

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Ghislaine Maxwell's emails from minimum-security jail leaked - amid claims of 'VIP treatment'

Ghislaine Maxwell has said she is “much, much happier” since being moved to a minimum-security prison in Texas, leaked emails reveal.

The messages – which were shared with US politicians – have been exclusively obtained by Sky’s US partner NBC News.

Maxwell, a disgraced British socialite and ex-girlfriend of the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, is serving a 20-year sentence for sex trafficking.

She was moved days after being interviewed by the Justice Department in July – even though prisoners convicted of sex offences aren’t meant to be held in such facilities.

This – along with reported perks such as meals sent to her dormitory room, late-night workouts and permission to shower when other inmates are in bed – have led some critics to claim she is receiving “VIP treatment”.

Maxwell is now serving her sentence at Federal Prison Camp Bryan in Texas. AP file pic
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Maxwell is now serving her sentence at Federal Prison Camp Bryan in Texas. AP file pic

Describing conditions at Federal Prison Camp Bryan, Maxwell wrote to a relative: “The food is legions better, the place is clean, the staff polite… I haven’t heard or seen the usual foul language or screaming accompanied by threats levelled by inmates by anyone.

“I have not seen a single fight, drug deal, passed out person or naked inmate running around or several of them congregating in a shower! In other words, I feel like I have dropped through Alice in Wonderland’s looking glass.”

The 63-year-old contrasted this with FCI Tallahassee in Florida, where she described possums falling from ceilings, frying on ovens, and mingling with food being served.

Some of Maxwell’s new inmates have told The Wall Street Journal that they have been threatened with retaliation if they speak about her to the media – with reports suggesting at least one was transferred.

Ghislaine Maxwell
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Ghislaine Maxwell

Her lawyer David Oscar Markus told NBC News: “There’s nothing journalistic about publishing a prisoner’s private emails, including ones with her lawyers. That’s tabloid behaviour, not responsible reporting.

“Anyone still interested in that kind of gossip reveals far more about themselves than about Ghislaine. It’s time to get over the fact that she is in a safer facility. We should want that for everyone.”

Meanwhile, Maxwell’s brother Ian said their messages were ” private by their very nature” – and if they were sent to a reporter, “they were stolen and leaked without authorisation”.

The Justice Department has declined to comment.

Read more:
Andrew urged to tell police about his time with Epstein
King formally strips Andrew of prince title and HRH style

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‘I don’t believe Epstein died by suicide’ – Maxwell

Federal Prison Camp Bryan is located in a residential area, ringed with barbed wire and houses about 635 prisoners – and Maxwell’s arrival over the summer sparked protests.

One demonstrator said back in August: “It’s brought a lot of attention to our town that we haven’t consented for. We don’t want a child sex trafficker here.”

Last month, the Supreme Court rejected Maxwell’s attempts to appeal her sentence – meaning a presidential pardon from Donald Trump is now her best shot at being freed before her projected release date in 2037, when she would be 75 years old.

Mr Trump told reporters at the time that he was planning to speak to the Justice Department and “would have to take a look” at whether he would consider clemency.

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Congress calls Andrew: New repercussions for royals?

Epstein died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges back in 2019, but pressure remains on those who had connections to the disgraced financier.

Earlier this week, the US Congress wrote to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – who has now been stripped of his royal titles by the King – requesting an interview about his “long-standing friendship” with Epstein.

Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, accused Andrew of sexually assaulting her after being introduced by Epstein. Andrew has always vehemently denied her accusations.

She alleged she was forced to have sex with Andrew three times – including once at Ghislaine Maxwell’s home in London.

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US

US aviation authority orders emergency ban on MD-11 flights after deadly Kentucky crash

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US aviation authority orders emergency ban on MD-11 flights after deadly Kentucky crash

US officials have issued an emergency order banning flights of the model of plane involved in a deadly crash in Kentucky last week, pending inspection.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued the Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD) for McDonnell Douglas MD-11 aircraft after a UPS plane bound for Honolulu crashed on take-off in Louisville on Tuesday evening, killing 14 people. The victims included three pilots.

Delivery firms UPS and FedEx had already grounded their fleets of the planes on Friday “out of an abundance of caution and in the interest of safety”.

The FAA said the order, which came following a recommendation by its manufacturer Boeing, was prompted after “an accident where the left-hand engine and pylon detached from the airplane”.

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Fire and debris after fatal cargo plane crash

A spokesperson for the authority added: “The cause of the detachment is currently under investigation. This condition could result in the loss of continued safe flight and landing.

“The FAA is issuing this AD because the agency has determined the unsafe condition is likely to exist or develop in other products of the same type design.

“The AD prohibits further flight until the airplane is inspected and all applicable corrective actions are performed.”

Read more from Sky News:
Man charged with stealing luggage from UK airport
Davina McCall reveals cancer diagnosis
Woman stabbed in neck in ‘unprovoked attack’

The MD-11 was first manufactured by McDonnell Douglas in 1988, until its merger with Boeing in 1997.

A UPS MD11 landing at Philadelphia airport in March 2025. Pic: Wikipedia/Hamproductions
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A UPS MD11 landing at Philadelphia airport in March 2025. Pic: Wikipedia/Hamproductions

It was once used by commercial airlines, including Finnair and KLM, as a passenger jet, but was retired in 2014, and is now used only as a freight plane.

Government shutdown impacts commercial flights

It came as more than 1,300 commercial flights were cancelled in the US on Saturday because of an FAA order, unrelated to the Kentucky crash, to reduce air traffic amid the ongoing government shutdown.

The deadlock in Washington has resulted in shortages of air traffic control staff, who have not been paid for weeks.

Officials have warned that the number of daily cancellations could rise in the coming days unless the political row is resolved.

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