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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to be $750,000 by 2026. Heres how and why. 9118 Total views 19 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksLove him or hate him, when Arthur Hayes speaks, people listen.

Last week, as a guest on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Hayes made the case for why he believes Bitcoin (BTC) price will hit $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

Hayes said:I absolutely agree that there is going to be a major financial crisis, probably as bad or worse than the great depression, sometime near the end of the decade; before we get there, were gonna have, I think, the largest bull market in stocks, real estate, crypto, art, you name it, that weve ever seen since WW2.

Hayes cites the nearly predictable response of the United States government rushing in to intervene in every economic crisis with a bail-out as a key catalyst behind the structural problems in the U.S. economy.

He explained that this essentially creates an endless cycle of central bank printing, which leads to inflation and prevents the economy from going through natural market cycles of growth and correction. We all have collectively agreed that the government is there essentially to attempt to remove the business cycle. Like, there should never be bad things that happen to the economy, and if there are, we want the government to come in and destroy the free market. So, every time weve had a financial crisis over the past 80 years. What happens? The government rushes in, and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.

Lets take a quick look at a few of the catalysts that Hayes believes will back Bitcoins move into six-figure territory. Mounting debt and out of control inflation.

According to Hayes, mounting government debt, a large amount that needs to be rolled over and diminishing productivity can only be addressed with money printing. While monetary expansion does lead to bull markets, the consequence tends to be high inflation. In the first instance, it creates a massive bull market in stocks, crypto, real estate, things that have a fixed supply, maybe theyre productive and have some earnings. But after that, were going to find out that, actually, the government cant save everything. It cant just print as much money as they think to try to save themselves by fixing the yield and price of their bonds, and were going to get a generational collapse.

Hayes expects a massive top at some point in 2026, followed by a great depression-like situation by the end of the decade.The U.S. government bankrupted the banking system

When asked about future contributors to inflation, Hayes zoned in on the $7.75 trillion in U.S. debt that must be rolled over by 2026 and the yield curve inversion in U.S. bonds.

Traditionally, China, Japan and other nations were the main buyers of U.S. debt, but this is not the case anymore a change that Hayes believes will exacerbate the situation in the states.

Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher?

Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring. Take a look at the top right quadrant of historical interest rate regimes.

It’s basically empty. pic.twitter.com/P6MQnCU73N Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 4, 2023

According to Hayes, the U.S. banking system is functionally insolvent because the regulators made the rules in such a way that it was profitable from an accounting perspective, not an economic perspective, to essentially take in deposits and buy low-yielding Treasurys, and they could do it with almost infinite leverage and a few basis points differing in the change of the price, and everyone makes a lot of money and gets a big bonus. The banks collectively bought all these treasuries in 2021, and obviously, the price went down a lot since then, and thats why we have the regional banking crisis.

The largest concern expressed by Hayes is that at a structural level, the U.S. banking system cannot buy more debt because it cannot afford to because it is structurally insolvent. The Federal Reserve has committed to doing quantitative tightening, so its not accumulating more Treasurys.

Hayes explained that the market is digesting this, and the nuance here is that despite high rates on U.S. Treasurys, gold prices remain high and certain market participants who previously were treasury buyers are disinterested.

Currently, banks struggle to attract deposits, and the difficulty of matching their deposit rates to the current rates available in the market creates revenue and debt management stress at a level that could become critical to the function of the entire banking system. Like many cryptocurrency advocates, Hayes believes that its in times like this that a certain cohort of investors begins to look at different investment options, including Bitcoin. Hayes view on why Bitcoin is destined for $750,000

Despite what appears to be a generally dismal outlook on the global and U.S. economy, Hayes still expects Bitcoin price to outperform, placing a target estimate in the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

Hayes expects Bitcoin to continue:Chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year as we get to some sort of financial disturbance and people recognize that real rates are negative. If the economy is growing at a nominal rate of 10%, but Im only getting 5% or 6%, even though its high, people on the margin are going to start buying other stuff, crypto being one of those things.

Coming into 2024, Hayes said either a financial crisis will push rates closer to 0%, or the government will keep raising rates, but not as fast as governments spend money and people continue looking for better returns elsewhere.

The eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., Europe and perhaps Hong Kong, plus the halving event, could push the price to a new all-time high at $70,000 in June or July of 2024. Regaining the all-time high by the end of 2024 is when the real fun starts and the real bull market starts, and Bitcoin enters the 750,0000 to $1 million on the upside.

When asked whether the estimated price level would stick, Hayes agreed that a 70% to 90% drawdown would occur in BTC price, just like it has after each bull market.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Federal Reserve # Central Bank # Bitcoin Price # Hyperinflation # Markets # Stocks # Inflation # Interest Rates

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Penn State fires Franklin amid midseason free fall

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Penn State fires Franklin amid midseason free fall

Penn State has fired coach James Franklin after 12 seasons, the school announced Sunday.

Franklin is owed more than $49 million, according to his contract. It’s the second-biggest buyout in college football history behind only Jimbo Fisher’s $76 million buyout from Texas A&M.

Associate head coach Terry Smith will serve as the Nittany Lions’ interim head coach for the remainder of the season, the school said.

Less than a year removed from an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals, Franklin’s program appeared to hit a new low when the Nittany Lions traveled out to Los Angeles two weeks ago only to lose to UCLA, a team that not only was winless but hadn’t previously held a lead all season.

The woes flew back home with the team to Penn State, and with them came “Fire Franklin!” chants at Beaver Stadium on Saturday. The Nittany Lions dropped their second straight home game, and third overall, when they fell to Northwestern 22-21 in front of a stunned crowd at Happy Valley.

With the two losses, Penn State became the first team since the FBS and FCS split in 1978 to lose consecutive games while favored by 20 or more points in each game, according to ESPN Research.

In Saturday’s defeat to the Wildcats, the Nittany Lions committed six penalties for 71 yards in the first half alone. They simply could never get out of their own way, and that was before quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth quarter.

Earlier in the season, when the losing streak began against Oregon at Happy Valley, Franklin fell to 4-21 at Penn State against AP top-10 opponents, including 1-18 against top-10 Big Ten teams.

Franklin’s .160 winning percentage against AP top-10 teams is tied for the third-worst record by a coach (minimum 25 games) at a single school since the poll era began in 1936, according to ESPN Research.

Hired in 2014 in the wake of Bill O’Brien’s departure for the NFL, Franklin inherited a team still feeling the effects of unprecedented NCAA sanctions in the wake of Jerry Sandusky’s sexual-abuse crimes.

Armed with relentless optimism and an ability to recruit, Franklin’s program regularly churned out NFL-level talent, from Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley to Green Bay Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons. Franklin guided the Nittany Lions to the 2016 Big Ten title and a seemingly permanent spot in the rankings.

There was hope this fall might be the season when Penn State would finally break through and win its third national championship and first since 1986. Yet after three easy wins during a light nonconference schedule, the Nittany Lions crumbled.

Athletic director Pat Kraft said the school owes Franklin an “enormous amount of gratitude” for leading the Nittany Lions back to relevance but felt it was time to make a change.

“We hold our athletics programs to the highest of standards, and we believe this is the right moment for new leadership at the helm of our football program to advance us toward Big Ten and national championships,” Kraft said.

The move will cost Penn State at a time the athletic department has committed to a $700 million renovation to Beaver Stadium. The project is expected to be completed by 2027.

Former athletic director Sandy Barbour signed Franklin to a 10-year contract extension worth up to $85 million in 2021. According to terms of the deal, Penn State will have to pay Franklin’s base salary of $500,000, supplemental pay of $6.5 million and an insurance loan of $1 million until 2031.

It’s a steep price, but one the university appears willing to pay to find a coach who can complete the climb to a national title.

“We have the best college football fans in America, a rich tradition of excellence, significant investments in our program, compete in the best conference in college sports and have a state-of-the-art renovated stadium on the horizon,” Kraft said. “I am confident in our future and in our ability to attract elite candidates to lead our program.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Hoosiers vault to No. 3 in poll; Texas, USC back in

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Hoosiers vault to No. 3 in poll; Texas, USC back in

Indiana moved up to No. 3 in the Associated Press college football poll Sunday for its highest ranking in program history, while Texas and USC were among five teams entering the Top 25 after eight ranked teams — three of them previously unbeaten — lost over the weekend.

Ohio State and Miami remained the top two teams while the Hoosiers earned a four-spot promotion for their 10-point win at then-No. 3 Oregon. No. 4 Texas A&M and No. 5 Ole Miss traded places after the Aggies’ 17-point home win over Florida and the Rebels’ three-point home win over Washington State.

The Buckeyes strengthened their hold on No. 1 with a solid road win against then-No. 17 Illinois and received 50 first-place votes, 10 more than last week. Miami, which was idle, earned 13 first-place votes, and Indiana got the other three.

Texas A&M has its highest ranking in a regular season since it was No. 3 in September 1995.

Alabama moved up two spots to No. 6 and was followed by Texas Tech, Oregon, Georgia and LSU. Oregon dropped five spots and has its lowest ranking in 20 polls since it was No. 8 in September 2024.

Indiana’s groundbreaking run under second-year coach Curt Cignetti has been one of the biggest stories in college football since last season. The Hoosiers went into the Oregon game 0-46 on the road against top-five teams and, before Sunday, had never been ranked higher than No. 4. Their three first-place votes are their most in a poll since they got the same number when they were ranked No. 6 on Nov. 5, 1945.

Oklahoma plunged eight spots to No. 14 with its first loss, 23-6 to Texas. The Longhorns were the preseason No. 1 team, but a season-opening loss at Ohio State and Week 6 loss at Florida dropped them out of the Top 25.

In beating the rival Sooners, the Longhorns held a top-10 opponent without a touchdown for the first time since 1979 and reentered the poll at No. 21. It was Texas’ first win of the season against a ranked opponent, and another won’t be on the schedule for at least three weeks.

Missouri, which started 5-0, fell two spots to No. 16 after its three-point home loss to Alabama.

No. 20 USC, ranked twice in September, returned to the rankings on the strength of its 18-point home win over Michigan.

No. 23 Utah is back after a three-week absence following a 32-point win over Arizona State.

No. 24 Cincinnati beat Central Florida at home for its fifth straight win and is ranked for the first time since 2022.

No. 25 Nebraska came from behind to beat Maryland on the road and has its first ranking of the season. It is the first time since the 2013 and 2014 seasons that the Cornhuskers have been ranked in consecutive seasons.

Five teams — Michigan (15), Illinois (17), Arizona State (21), Iowa State (22) and Florida State (25) — dropped out of the poll, marking the most turnover in a regular-season poll since seven teams fell out on Oct. 2, 2022.

CONFERENCE CALL

SEC (10): Nos. 4, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16, 17, 21
Big Ten (5): Nos. 1, 3, 8, 20, 25
Big 12 (4): Nos. 7, 15, 23, 24
ACC (3): Nos. 2, 12, 18
American (2): Nos. 19, 22
Independent (1): No. 13

RANKED VS. RANKED

No. 5 Ole Miss (6-0) at No. 9 Georgia (5-1): Judging by their close call against Washington State, the Rebels might have been looking ahead to this one. They have lost six straight in Athens since 1996.

No. 10 LSU (5-1) at No. 17 Vanderbilt (5-1): The Tigers have won 10 straight in the series. Both teams will be ranked in this matchup for the first time since 1947.

No. 11 Tennessee (5-1) at No. 6 Alabama (5-1): This game is a Top 25 matchup for the fifth straight year. Both teams are coming off hard-fought, three-point wins.

No. 20 USC (5-1) at No. 13 Notre Dame (4-2): High stakes in this storied series with both teams clinging to playoff hopes.

No. 23 Utah (5-1) at No. 15 BYU (6-0): First Top 25 matchup in this one since 2009. Last year, the Cougars benefited from a questionable fourth-down defensive holding penalty before kicking a field goal with 4 seconds left for a 22-21 win.

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High-profile ’27 recruits pull Penn State pledges

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High-profile '27 recruits pull Penn State pledges

Penn State suffered an immediate hit on the recruiting trail Sunday, will a slew of recruits decommitting in the aftermath of the school’s decision to fire head coach James Franklin following 12 seasons with the program.

Less than an hour after Franklin was fired, four-star 2027 recruit Kemon Spell, the No. 1 running back in the 2027 cycle and the No. 15 player overall in the ESPN Junior 300, decommitted from the Nittany Lions, sources told ESPN.

Two other ESPN Junior 300 recruits — offensive tackle Layton Von Brandt (No. 35 overall) and cornerback Gabriel Jenkins (No. 242) — also announced Sunday that they’d be decommitting from Penn State’s 2027 recruiting class upon news of the coaching change.

With four-star wide receiver Khalil Taylor (No. 66 overall) decommitting on Friday, a once-promising Nittany Lions class in the 2027 cycle no longer holds a single pledge.

As for the 2026 class, which entered Sunday ranked 17th nationally, three-star wide receiver Lavar Keys is the lone prospect to decommit in the immediate wake of Franklin’s exit. However, it is suddenly vulnerable less than two months out from the December early signing period.

High-profile commits from the SC Next ESPN 300 include wide receiver Davion Brown (No. 71 overall), offensive tackle Kevin Brown (No. 80) and running Messiah Mickens (No. 135), as well as quarterback pledge Troy Huhn (No. 186), and they could attract significant flip interest from across the country over the remainder of the cycle as Penn State navigates its post-Franklin future.

“We believe this is the right moment for new leadership at the helm of our football program to advance us toward Big Ten and national championships,” Penn State athletic director Patrick Kraft said in a statement.

The Nittany Lions consistently recruited among the top programs in the Big Ten across Franklin’s tenure, topping out with the nation’s No. 4 class in the 2018 cycle, when Penn State signed five-stars Micah Parsons and Justin Shorter.

The program finished in the top 15 of ESPN’s recruiting rankings in each of the past four cycles with quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton — all members of the program’s 2025 roster — among the top additions over that span.

The school announced Sunday that associate head coach Terry Smith will serve as Penn State’s interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Riding a three-game losing streak, the Nittany Lions (3-3) travel to face Iowa in Week 8.

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