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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to be $750,000 by 2026. Heres how and why. 9118 Total views 19 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksLove him or hate him, when Arthur Hayes speaks, people listen.

Last week, as a guest on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Hayes made the case for why he believes Bitcoin (BTC) price will hit $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

Hayes said:I absolutely agree that there is going to be a major financial crisis, probably as bad or worse than the great depression, sometime near the end of the decade; before we get there, were gonna have, I think, the largest bull market in stocks, real estate, crypto, art, you name it, that weve ever seen since WW2.

Hayes cites the nearly predictable response of the United States government rushing in to intervene in every economic crisis with a bail-out as a key catalyst behind the structural problems in the U.S. economy.

He explained that this essentially creates an endless cycle of central bank printing, which leads to inflation and prevents the economy from going through natural market cycles of growth and correction. We all have collectively agreed that the government is there essentially to attempt to remove the business cycle. Like, there should never be bad things that happen to the economy, and if there are, we want the government to come in and destroy the free market. So, every time weve had a financial crisis over the past 80 years. What happens? The government rushes in, and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.

Lets take a quick look at a few of the catalysts that Hayes believes will back Bitcoins move into six-figure territory. Mounting debt and out of control inflation.

According to Hayes, mounting government debt, a large amount that needs to be rolled over and diminishing productivity can only be addressed with money printing. While monetary expansion does lead to bull markets, the consequence tends to be high inflation. In the first instance, it creates a massive bull market in stocks, crypto, real estate, things that have a fixed supply, maybe theyre productive and have some earnings. But after that, were going to find out that, actually, the government cant save everything. It cant just print as much money as they think to try to save themselves by fixing the yield and price of their bonds, and were going to get a generational collapse.

Hayes expects a massive top at some point in 2026, followed by a great depression-like situation by the end of the decade.The U.S. government bankrupted the banking system

When asked about future contributors to inflation, Hayes zoned in on the $7.75 trillion in U.S. debt that must be rolled over by 2026 and the yield curve inversion in U.S. bonds.

Traditionally, China, Japan and other nations were the main buyers of U.S. debt, but this is not the case anymore a change that Hayes believes will exacerbate the situation in the states.

Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher?

Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring. Take a look at the top right quadrant of historical interest rate regimes.

It’s basically empty. pic.twitter.com/P6MQnCU73N Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 4, 2023

According to Hayes, the U.S. banking system is functionally insolvent because the regulators made the rules in such a way that it was profitable from an accounting perspective, not an economic perspective, to essentially take in deposits and buy low-yielding Treasurys, and they could do it with almost infinite leverage and a few basis points differing in the change of the price, and everyone makes a lot of money and gets a big bonus. The banks collectively bought all these treasuries in 2021, and obviously, the price went down a lot since then, and thats why we have the regional banking crisis.

The largest concern expressed by Hayes is that at a structural level, the U.S. banking system cannot buy more debt because it cannot afford to because it is structurally insolvent. The Federal Reserve has committed to doing quantitative tightening, so its not accumulating more Treasurys.

Hayes explained that the market is digesting this, and the nuance here is that despite high rates on U.S. Treasurys, gold prices remain high and certain market participants who previously were treasury buyers are disinterested.

Currently, banks struggle to attract deposits, and the difficulty of matching their deposit rates to the current rates available in the market creates revenue and debt management stress at a level that could become critical to the function of the entire banking system. Like many cryptocurrency advocates, Hayes believes that its in times like this that a certain cohort of investors begins to look at different investment options, including Bitcoin. Hayes view on why Bitcoin is destined for $750,000

Despite what appears to be a generally dismal outlook on the global and U.S. economy, Hayes still expects Bitcoin price to outperform, placing a target estimate in the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

Hayes expects Bitcoin to continue:Chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year as we get to some sort of financial disturbance and people recognize that real rates are negative. If the economy is growing at a nominal rate of 10%, but Im only getting 5% or 6%, even though its high, people on the margin are going to start buying other stuff, crypto being one of those things.

Coming into 2024, Hayes said either a financial crisis will push rates closer to 0%, or the government will keep raising rates, but not as fast as governments spend money and people continue looking for better returns elsewhere.

The eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., Europe and perhaps Hong Kong, plus the halving event, could push the price to a new all-time high at $70,000 in June or July of 2024. Regaining the all-time high by the end of 2024 is when the real fun starts and the real bull market starts, and Bitcoin enters the 750,0000 to $1 million on the upside.

When asked whether the estimated price level would stick, Hayes agreed that a 70% to 90% drawdown would occur in BTC price, just like it has after each bull market.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Federal Reserve # Central Bank # Bitcoin Price # Hyperinflation # Markets # Stocks # Inflation # Interest Rates

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Moving in the shadows: Why tanker seized by US off Venezuela was ‘spoofing’ its location

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Moving in the shadows: Why tanker seized by US off Venezuela was 'spoofing' its location

An oil tanker seized by the US off the Venezuelan coast on Wednesday spent years trying to sail the seas unnoticed.

Changing names, switching flags, and vanishing from tracking systems.

That all came to an end this week, when American coast guard teams descending from helicopters with guns drawn stormed the ship, named Skipper.

A US official said the helicopters that took the teams to the tanker came from the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford.

The USS Gerald R Ford (in grey) off the US Virgin Islands on 4 December. Source: Copernicus
Image:
The USS Gerald R Ford (in grey) off the US Virgin Islands on 4 December. Source: Copernicus

The sanctioned tanker

Over the past two years, Skipper has been tracked to countries under US sanctions including Iran.

TankerTrackers.com, which monitors crude oil shipments, estimates Skipper has transported nearly 13 million barrels of Iranian and Venezuelan oil since 2021.

More on Nicolas Maduro

And in 2022, the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) placed Skipper, then known as Adisa, on its sanctions list.

But that did not stop the ship’s activities.

Skipper pictured from the Venezuelan shore. Source: TankerTrackers.com
Image:
Skipper pictured from the Venezuelan shore. Source: TankerTrackers.com

In mid-November 2025, it was pictured at the Jose Oil Export Terminal in Venezuela, where it was loaded with more than one million barrels of crude oil.

Skipper (R) loads up with crude oil at the Jose Oil Export Terminal in Venezuela. Source: Planet
Image:
Skipper (R) loads up with crude oil at the Jose Oil Export Terminal in Venezuela. Source: Planet

It left Jose Oil Export Terminal between 4 and 5 December, according to TankerTrackers.com.

And on 6 or 7 December, Skipper did a ship-to-ship transfer with another tanker in the Caribbean, the Neptune 6.

Ship-to-ship transfers allow sanctioned vessels to obscure where oil shipments have come from.

The transfer with Neptune 6 took place while Skipper’s tracking system, known as AIS, was turned off.

Read more:
Everything we know about dramatic ship seizure
Is this what the beginning of a war looks like?

Skipper (R) and Neptune 6 in the Caribbean Sea during an AIS gap. Source: European Union Copernicus Sentinel and Kpler
Image:
Skipper (R) and Neptune 6 in the Caribbean Sea during an AIS gap. Source: European Union Copernicus Sentinel and Kpler

Dimitris Ampatzidis, senior risk and compliance manager at Kpler, told Sky News: “Vessels, when they are trying to hide the origin of the cargo or a port call or any operation that they are taking, they can just switch off the AIS.”

Matt Smith, head analyst US at Kpler, said they believe the ship’s destination was Cuba.

Around five days after leaving the Venezuelan port, it was seized around 70 miles off the coast.

Moving in the shadows

Skipper has tried to go unnoticed by using a method called ‘spoofing’.

This is where a ship transmits a false location to hide its real movements.

“When we’re talking about spoofing, we’re talking about when the vessel manipulates the AIS data in order to present that she’s in a specific region,” Mr Ampatzidis explained.

“So you declare false AIS data and everyone else in the region, they are not aware about your real location, they are only aware of the false location that you are transmitted.”

When it was intercepted by the US, it was sharing a different location more than 400 miles away from its actual position.

The distance between Skipper's spoofed position on AIS (towards the bottom right hand corner) and its real position when seized by the US. Source: MarineTraffic
Image:
The distance between Skipper’s spoofed position on AIS (towards the bottom right hand corner) and its real position when seized by the US. Source: MarineTraffic

Skipper was manipulating its tracking signals to falsely place itself in Guyanese waters and fraudulently flying the flag of Guyana.

“We have really real concerns about the spoofing events,” Mr Ampatzidis told Sky News.

“It’s about the safety on the seas. As a shipping industry, we have inserted the AIS data, the AIS technology, this GPS tracking technology, more than a decade back, in order to ensure that vessels and crew on board on these vessels are safe when they’re travelling.”

Dozens of sanctioned tankers ‘operating off Venezuela’

Skipper is not the only sanctioned ship off the coast of Venezuela.

According to analysis by Windward, 30 sanctioned tankers were operating in Venezuelan ports and waters as of 11 December.

About 30 sanctioned tankers are currently operating in Venezuelan waters. Source: Windward Maritime AI Platform
Image:
About 30 sanctioned tankers are currently operating in Venezuelan waters. Source: Windward Maritime AI Platform

The tanker seizure is a highly unusual move from the US government and is part of the Trump administration’s increasing pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

In recent months, the largest US military presence in the region in decades has built up, and a series of deadly strikes has been launched on alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean.

In the past, Mr Ampatzidis explained, actions like sanctions have had a limited effect on illegally operating tankers.

But the seizure of Skipper will send a signal to other dark fleet ships.

“From today, they will know that if they are doing spoofing, if they are doing dark activities in closer regions of the US, they will be in the spotlight and they will be the key targets from the US Navy.”

The Data X Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Man found guilty of murdering wife in rare retrial

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Man found guilty of murdering wife in rare retrial

A 52-year-old carpenter from Surrey has been found guilty of murdering his wife in a rare retrial, eight years after being acquitted.

Robert Rhodes killed his estranged wife, Dawn Rhodes, by slitting her throat with a knife at their family home in Redhill, Surrey, in June 2016.

He was previously found not guilty after a trial at the Old Bailey in 2017, where he convinced jurors that he had acted in self-defence during an argument.

It has since emerged that this was a “cover-up”, after the couple’s child came forward with new evidence that Rhodes killed Ms Rhodes, and they were involved in the murder too.

In 2021, the child, who was under the age of 10 at the time of the murder, told police they had been manipulated into lying about the true version of events by their father.

Both Rhodes and the child were found with knife wounds at the scene, which were initially claimed to have been inflicted in an attack by Ms Rhodes.

The child’s new account stated that after Rhodes killed his wife, he inflicted two wounds to his scalp before instructing the child to inflict two more on their father’s back. He then cut his own child’s arm so deeply that it required stitches under general anaesthetic.

Under the double jeopardy rule a person cannot be tried twice for the same crime, unless new and compelling evidence comes out after an acquittal or conviction for serious offences.

On Friday, jurors at Inner London Crown Court convicted Rhodes of murder and child cruelty.

He was also found guilty of perverting the course of justice and two counts of perjury.

Rhodes will be sentenced on 16 January.

What is the law on double jeopardy?

The double jeopardy rule is a legal principle that prevents a person from being tried twice for the same crime after they have been acquitted or convicted.

It’s a protection for that person from harassment. However, the law permits a retrial where someone was acquitted of a serious offence, but new and compelling evidence has since come to light which indicates the person might actually be guilty.

In this case, the new evidence from the child was compelling enough for the Court of Appeal to quash the acquittal and a retrial to take place.

Crucially, the child’s evidence was so compelling that the Court of Appeal agreed Rhodes needed to be tried again.

Surrey Police told Sky News that the child, who was of primary school age at the time and is below the age of criminal responsibility, was “groomed” by Rhodes into lying.

The Crown Prosecution Service said “the child’s part in the plan was that they would distract the mother by saying to the mother ‘hold out your hands, I’ve got a surprise for you’, and the child would then put a drawing into the hands of the mother”.

Rhodes then cut his wife’s throat. She was found lying face down in a pool of blood in the dining room.

How the case unfolded

2 June 2016 – Dawn Rhodes killed

5 June 2016 – Robert Rhodes charged with murder

2 May 2017 – first trial begins

30 May 2017 – not guilty verdict

18 November 2021 – child gives therapist new account

Late November 2021 – police reopen case

4 June 2024 – Robert Rhodes rearrested and charged the next day

7 November 2024 – Rhodes’s acquittal quashed

2 October 2025 – second trial begins

Libby Clark, specialist prosecutor for the Crown Prosecution Service’s South East Area Complex Casework Unit, said the child showed “great bravery and strength” in coming forward with the truth.

She said: “The child has grown up with the dawning realisation, I would say, that they were part of a plan. They were complicit in the murder of the mother, Dawn Rhodes.”

Legal commentator Joshua Rozenberg said there are “very few cases” where a retrial like this happens.

He said: “It’s very unusual. I don’t think there’s been a case that I can think of where a witness who was present at the scene of the crime has come forward and given evidence, which has led to a conviction.”

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Politics

US financial markets ‘poised to move on-chain’ amid DTCC tokenization greenlight

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US financial markets ‘poised to move on-chain’ amid DTCC tokenization greenlight

Traditional financial markets are moving rapidly onchain as the US Securities and Exchange Commission chair doubled down on the idea of an “innovation exemption” to accelerate tokenization.

“U.S. financial markets are poised to move on-chain,” wrote Paul Atkins, chair of the SEC, in a Friday X post, adding that the agency is “embracing new technologies to enable this onchain future.”

His comments come shortly after the SEC issued a “no action” letter to a subsidiary of the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), enabling it to offer a new securities market tokenization service.

The DTCC plans to tokenize assets, including the Russell 1000 index, exchange-traded funds tracking major indexes and US Treasury bills and bonds, which Atkins called an “important step towards onchain capital markets.”

“On-chain markets will bring greater predictability, transparency, and efficiency for investors,” he said.

However, the green light for the DTCC’s pilot is only the beginning, as the SEC will consider an innovation exemption to enable builders to start “transitioning our markets onchain,” without being burdened by “cumbersome regulatory requirements,” added Atkins.

Source: Paul Atkins

Atkins pledged to encourage innovation as the industry moves toward onchain settlement, which would mean settling transactions on a blockchain ledger, removing intermediaries, enabling 24/7 trading and faster transaction finality.

Related: Crypto nears its ‘Netscape moment’ as industry approaches inflection point

Cointelegraph has contacted the SEC for comment on the details and timeline of an innovation exemption for tokenization.

Atkins first proposed an innovation exemption for tokenization during his remarks at the Crypto Task Force Roundtable on DeFi on June 9.

The SEC’s no-action letter means that the agency won’t take enforcement action if the DTCC’s product operates as described. The DTCC provides clearing, settlements and trading services as one of the most important infrastructure providers for US securities.

Asset tokenization involves minting tangible assets on the blockchain ledger, offering more investor access through fractionalized shares and 24/7 trading opportunities.

Related: Bitcoin treasuries stall in Q4, but largest holders keep stacking sats

DTCC pilot and RWA builders push more TradFi onchain

Crypto analysts have praised the SEC’s move to allow the DTCC’s new market tokenization service, which will award tokenized assets the same entitlements and investor protection mechanisms as traditional assets.

“Not sure people fully appreciate how quickly financial markets are heading towards full tokenization… Moving even faster than I expected,” wrote ETF analyst Nate Geraci, in a Friday X post.

Over the past few months, the SEC issued two no-action letters: one for a Solana-based decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) project, and a second no-action letter in September that allowed investment advisers to use state trust companies as crypto custodians.

Meanwhile, crypto projects continue to raise funds to build the infrastructure necessary for tokenized onchain markets.

On Tuesday, asset tokenization network Real Finance closed a $29 million private funding round to build an infrastructure layer for real-world assets (RWAs) that can boost institutional participation.