Week 7 preview: Who needs a win in the worst way?
There are some college football doozies on tap for Week 7, which once again should result in some separation in conference races (for the time being, that is) and even the race for the College Football Playoff (for the time being, that is).
Perhaps no game is bigger than No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington, pitting two high-powered offenses in a Pac-12 showdown to remain undefeated. But that’s not the only marquee matchup Saturday. USC travels to Notre Dame, which is coming off a drubbing at the hands of Louisville, and Miami, fresh off its own embarrassing loss, is at North Carolina.
Our reporters preview Week 7 with a look at the which teams need the win more, offensive lines to watch and some of the week’s best quotes.
Who needs the ‘W’ more?
Miami at North Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Had Miami actually lined up in victory formation and beaten Georgia Tech last week, this would have been a far more difficult question to answer. But since the Hurricanes lost, this is an easy choice. Miami needs this one maybe more than any other team across the country needs a win. Coach Mario Cristobal has been at the center of a firestorm for opting to hand the ball off with the lead and 30 seconds remaining. You know what happened next: Don Chaney fumbled, and Georgia Tech scored the game-winning touchdown with one second remaining.
Cristobal and his players fielded one question after another this week about the way that game ended and how they would respond on the road against a vastly improved North Carolina team following such an emotional loss. Players were asked whether they had faith in their coaching staff for bungling the end of the game. In one clip from the sideline, center Matt Lee is seen crying and saying, “What the f— are we doing?” Lee said this week he had “unwavering faith” in Cristobal to get the job done. “When our leadership council met, it was all very positive and it’s, ‘Hey guys, move on.’ You have to have a short memory. You put in work all year for 12 games, so s— happens and you move on, and the team and every coach has done a great job of that.”
Miami is now 0-1 in ACC play, but this game presents a huge opportunity. The Hurricanes have games against all three current undefeated ACC teams left on the schedule: North Carolina, then Florida State on Nov. 11 and Louisville on Nov. 18. They can get themselves back into the ACC race with a win Saturday. But to do that, they have to find a way to push past the disappointment and not allow what happened against the Yellow Jackets to linger and ruin their season.
“Yeah, it sucks. We know we should have won,” quarterback Tyler Van Dyke said. “But we’ve got to move on from it. We’ve got a tough matchup this week, and we’ve just got to get ready for that.” — Andrea Adelson
Oregon at Washington: There is a compelling case for both teams here because they essentially are mirror images, sitting at No. 7 and No. 8 in the country, with high-powered offenses and Heisman candidates at quarterback.
However, Washington hasn’t been on a major stage yet this season, so this is a much bigger opportunity to make a national statement. Oregon had 10 million people watch it absolutely embarrass Colorado. This will be a similar chance for Washington, with “College GameDay” in town, a nationally televised game and an appealing kickoff time (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
If Washington loses, it will have chances to get back into the mix, but not until Nov. 4, when it travels to USC, the first of four games against ranked teams to end the season. Perhaps unfairly, a loss might also delegitimize Washington’s hot start for people who hadn’t been watching it until this week. That’s just how college football operates sometimes.
But again, a lot of this is equally true for Oregon. That’s all to say this is a game with massive stakes. It has the potential to be among the best games this season. — Kyle Bonagura
USC at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock): The answer is Notre Dame, which has already lost twice despite looking improved from last season. It needs to avoid a spiral under second-year coach Marcus Freeman. But let’s start with USC’s defense, which has been unable to shed the stink from 2022 despite upgrades.
The Trojans excel in the flashy categories — they’re in the top five nationally in sacks (22), tackles for loss (57) and forced fumbles (8) — but remain prone to busts, even though many have come with comfortable leads. Coach Lincoln Riley is tired of the criticism, saying Tuesday the defense isn’t being evaluated with enough context.
“This is a much-improved unit, there is no question about it,” Riley told reporters. “This is a unit that, when you talk about the top-end potential, has a chance to really grow and get better fast. … There’s a lot of good things happening on this defense, man.”
Back to Notre Dame. The Irish are fighting through a brutal stretch against opponents that entered their game undefeated — Ohio State, Duke, Louisville and USC. Quarterback Sam Hartman had not thrown an interception during six games at Notre Dame before getting picked three times against Louisville. Hartman’s accuracy has dropped in the past two games, and Notre Dame’s deficiencies at wide receiver are starting to show up again.
Freeman stressed the need to establish a run game with Audric Estime, who had just 20 yards on 10 carries against Louisville.
“If we have to simplify, we have to do it,” Freeman said. “That’s the biggest thing when you talk about the difference between two weeks ago till now. It’s like, ‘OK, we’re making mistakes [identifying] in the run game, and why aren’t we blocking this guy?’ We have to simplify to make sure there is crystal clarity on what we need to do.” — Adam Rittenberg
Florida at South Carolina: It’s difficult to see the loser of this game going on to have a successful season, a season that was pivotal for both teams — albeit for different reasons. Billy Napier, in his second season at Florida, needed to show marked improvement after the Gators suffered through a 6-7 campaign a year ago. Florida (4-2, 2-1) was pummeled two weeks ago at Kentucky and has played poorly away from home since Napier arrived. The Gators are 1-7 when they’ve ventured outside the Swamp, and after the trip to Williams-Brice Stadium, they still have to play Georgia in Jacksonville and LSU and Missouri on the road before closing the season at home against No. 4 Florida State.
For Shane Beamer and South Carolina, there was a ton of momentum surrounding the program after the Gamecocks won eight games a year ago and beat Tennessee and Clemson to end the regular season, creating lofty expectations in Year 3 for Beamer Ball. But much like a year ago, the Gamecocks (2-3, 1-2) need a strong close to the season after losing to three top-25 teams in their first five games.
Florida routed South Carolina 38-6 last season, but the Gamecocks bounced back to play their best football of the season and win their next two over Tennessee and Clemson. They’re going to need a similar resurgence to finish with their third straight winning record under Beamer, and that starts Saturday at home against the Gators. — Chris Low
Wyoming at Air Force: Week 7 brings us a couple of enormous matchups in the race for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl bid. Tulane and Memphis are each 4-1 and 1-0 in AAC play; the winner of Saturday’s game in the Liberty Bowl could tell us who the American front-runner is, and generally “one-loss AAC champion” is a good thing to be.
At the moment, however, Air Force might be at the front of the line. Troy Calhoun’s Falcons are 5-0 and already 3-0 in Mountain West play. They have been held under 39 points only once, and they’re allowing just 12.2 points per game.
On Saturday, however, they face by far their best opponent, a 5-1 Wyoming team that boasts wins over Texas Tech and Fresno State and a loss only at Texas. The Cowboys technically need this one more because they’ve already suffered a blemish, but this one’s huge either way. This weekend will bring quite a bit of clarity to the New Year’s Six race. — Bill Connelly
Whose offensive line makes the difference?
ACC: Duke coach Mike Elko has done a terrific job in transforming the offensive line to a position of strength since his arrival in Durham. This season, the group got even stronger with the additions of transfers Jake Hornibrook (Stanford) and Scott Elliott (Harvard), two veterans with starting experience at their previous schools. The projected starting lineup for their game Saturday against NC State has a combined 162 starts. Duke has allowed only four sacks on the season and ranks in the Top 25 in the country in rushing offense. But this unit will definitely face a test against the Wolfpack, who have 21 sacks this season and have allowed less than 100 yards rushing per game. If QB Riley Leonard (ankle) is unable to play, that could affect what Duke does on the ground — especially if NC State tries to load the box to make Henry Belin IV make some plays. — Adelson
Big Ten: Michigan’s offensive line has won the Joe Moore Award for best offensive line unit the past two seasons. Offensive coordinator and line coach Sherrone Moore had to replace a few players from last season, but the staff went to the transfer portal to fill those needs immediately. Rimington Award winner Olu Oluwatimi left for the NFL, so the coaches brought in Drake Nugent from Stanford, who has started at center this season. They also added tackle Myles Hinton and guard LaDarius Henderson. Michigan’s line has been an important part of the offensive success and has once again been dominating defenses up front. Michigan quarterbacks have been sacked just three times, and the Wolverines’ running backs are averaging 2.36 yards before contact on runs. Running back Blake Corum has an FBS-leading 10 touchdowns, and while Corum has executed those runs, he also has an excellent offensive line to thank for creating holes and blocking up front. — Tom VanHaaren
Big 12: Last season, Texas Tech averaged 3.9 yards per carry and was 111th nationally in sacks allowed at 3.15 per game. The Red Raiders brought in transfer center Rusty Staats, who started 45 games at Western Kentucky, and reshuffled the entire offensive line in the process. This season, they’re averaging 179 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, and running back Tahj Brooks is the first Tech player with four straight 100-yard games in the past 20 years. Kansas State, meanwhile, ranks fourth nationally in run defense, allowing just 2.99 yards per carry and 93.4 yards per game. The Wildcats have given up just three rushing scores all season. How the Texas Tech line holds up will go a long way toward its survival in the conference race. — Dave Wilson
Pac-12: Bo Nix may be the headliner in Eugene as he tries to continue a Heisman-level start to the season, but the work of the Ducks’ offensive line so far cannot be overstated. The unit has allowed only three sacks of Nix all season and only 20 tackles for loss. Washington’s offensive line has protected Michael Penix Jr. in similar fashion, which has allowed him to get off to an equally, if not more, impressive start than Nix. Both offensive lines may be the key to Saturday’s matchup; whoever gives their respective quarterback more time against staunch defensive lines could be the team that emerges with a crucial win. — Paolo Uggetti
SEC: Another year, another solid Georgia offensive line. And this time the Bulldogs are doing it without Warren McClendon and Broderick Jones, who left during the offseason for the NFL. And they’re doing it without starting right tackle Amarius Mims, who has missed the past few weeks after undergoing tightrope surgery to repair a sprained ankle. But the numbers say Dylan Fairchild, Earnest Greene, Tate Ratledge, Xavier Truss and Sedrick Van Pran are doing just fine. Ratledge hasn’t given up a pressure all season. All told, Georgia ranks fourth in the FBS in pressure percentage (20.5%) and sixth in yards before contact (2,069). — Alex Scarborough
Notable quotes
Mario Cristobal: If you’ve been paying attention, you might have heard the Miami coach’s mea culpa regarding the Canes’ agonizing loss to Georgia Tech.
“I made the wrong call. I take full ownership in not taking a knee and giving them the opportunity to have a couple extra plays and preventing us from sealing the win.”
Mark Stoops: Kentucky’s coach made a pitch to fans for donations to fund his team during a weekly radio show, using Georgia, which had just beaten the Wildcats 51-13, as the primary example.
“I can promise you — Georgia, they bought some pretty good players. You’re allowed to these days, and we could use some help. That’s what they look like, you know what I mean, when you have 85 of ’em. I encourage anybody that’s disgruntled to pony up some more.”
Forget everything you thought you knew in August.
At the midpoint of the season, Penn State has three losses, Clemson has three losses, Texas is trying to claw its way back into the playoff conversation, and undefeated Indiana is … a top five team?!
“This showed the country we’re a real team,” Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza told reporters after the Hoosiers’ 30-20 win at Oregon. “We’re not just a one-hit wonder.”
Separation has started to occur, true playoff contenders have begun to emerge through statement wins, and the battle for No. 1 is ongoing. Alabama has made a case for the selection committee’s top one-loss team, and Notre Dame has battled back after an 0-2 start to position itself as the top two-loss team.
The jockeying for top seeds, first-round byes and first-round home games continues, but Week 7’s top 12 prediction is a snapshot of who’s got the early edge if the ranking were released halfway through the season.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes now have two impressive road wins, adding Saturday’s 34-16 victory at Illinois to the Sept. 27 win at Washington. The Buckeyes have defeated three straight Big Ten opponents who are all at .500 or better, including two on the road. Miami has one road win and hasn’t left its home state yet. Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the country, and quarterback Julian Sayin has been one of the nation’s most efficient, mistake-free quarterbacks. The Buckeyes are a complete team, ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — a historic trait of the selection committee’s past playoff teams. The 70-0 win against FCS Grambling, though, impacts some of that. Ohio State’s nonconference win against Texas will continue to be valuable within the committee meeting room, as the Longhorns’ win against rival Oklahoma bolsters their chance to be a CFP top 25 team.
Why they could be lower: Indiana just earned the best win in the country, and Miami still has one of the best overall résumés. The Canes were on a bye week but got another boost Friday night when South Florida hammered previously undefeated North Texas 63-36. Some committee members would argue that Miami’s win against Notre Dame is better than Ohio State’s win against Texas.
Need to know: Ohio State has more than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The selection committee typically doesn’t move teams around if they don’t play, unless it happens as a result of shuffling around them. Ohio State’s win at Illinois strengthened its résumé, and the Buckeyes were also helped by Texas beating Oklahoma. It didn’t help the Canes that Florida State picked up its third loss, this one to an unranked Pitt team. Miami’s overall body of work, though, is still worthy of consideration for the top spot. South Florida’s 63-36 lopsided win Friday night against previously undefeated North Texas further enhanced the Canes’ 49-12 drubbing of the Bulls on Sept. 13. What’s really separating Miami from Ohio State, though, is the season-opening win against Notre Dame, which has played its way back into the top 25 after winning four straight.
Why they could be higher: Miami has a case to be ranked No. 1 with wins against Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State and Florida. The win against the Irish continues to look good after Notre Dame pulled away for a convincing win against NC State on Saturday. Entering Week 7, Miami was No. 2 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, with a slight edge over Ohio State.
Need to know: Entering Saturday, no team in the country had a better chance to win out than Miami (32.1%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is projected to win each of its remaining games — and none of them are likely to feature a top 25 opponent.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at SMU. This will be the first time Miami leaves its home state, and it’s not an easy trip. It’s also the last chance to make a first impression on the CFP selection committee, which will release its first of six rankings the Tuesday after this game.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers just earned the best win in the country, beating Oregon on its home turf, where the Ducks had won 18 straight games. Indiana’s defense looked legit, and the Hoosiers have a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Mendoza. IU has now reeled off three straight wins against Big Ten opponents, including back-to-back road wins against Iowa and Oregon. The selection committee would likely hold the Hoosiers back from a higher spot right now, though, because half of their wins came against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee compares common opponents, and while the Hoosiers don’t play Ohio State during the regular season, they both played Illinois. Indiana hammered the Fighting Illini 63-10, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career. Ohio State won with relative ease Saturday, beating Illinois 34-16, but it wasn’t the kind of jaw-dropping beatdown the Hoosiers executed.
Need to know: Indiana’s head-to-head win against Oregon impacts both the Big Ten standings and the CFP seeding process. If IU’s only loss were to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Hoosiers could still finish in the top four and earn a first-round bye because those top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions. This was the only game on Indiana’s schedule the Hoosiers weren’t favored to win.
Toughest remaining game: Geez. Nov. 1 at Maryland is suddenly the biggest looming obstacle. The Terps are a respectable 4-2 and have lost their past two games by a combined seven points. The Nov. 8 trip to Penn State is a shadow of the test it once appeared to be after the Nittany Lions have lost three straight, reaching a new low with Saturday’s loss to Northwestern.
Why they could be here: The Aggies eventually pulled away from a stingy Florida defense to remain undefeated and with a lead in the SEC race. The Aggies and Ole Miss are the only undefeated teams remaining in their conference, but Texas A&M entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — ahead of both Miami and Ohio State. The Week 3 win at Notre Dame continues to elevate the Aggies’ résumé, but it’s the only road win so far.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could give Alabama more credit for three straight wins against ranked opponents, including two on the road. Texas A&M has only one win against a ranked opponent, and wins against UTSA and Utah State don’t help much.
Need to know: The Aggies are about to enter their season-defining stretch of three straight road games (Arkansas, LSU and Missouri). If Texas A&M loses a game, it will also likely lose the debate with one-loss Alabama if it hasn’t already.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns might have had a turning point Saturday in their win against rival Oklahoma. If Texas can continue to improve offensively, it could be one of the most complete teams the Aggies face in the second half of the season.
Why they could be here: The Tide earned a second road win against a previously undefeated team, this time escaping Missouri to remain undefeated in the SEC. Alabama has now won five straight games since its season-opening loss at Florida State, including three straight against ranked and previously undefeated SEC teams. That résumé combined with the evident growth of quarterback Ty Simpson gives the Tide the strongest case to be the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team. Heading into Saturday, the only other one-loss team that came close to the Tide in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric was Illinois, and the Fighting Illini lost to Ohio State in Week 7.
Why they could be lower: Ole Miss wasn’t pretty Saturday against Washington State, but the Rebels are still undefeated and Bama’s not. Plus, Alabama’s loss is now to a three-loss Florida State after the Noles lost to Pitt.
Need to know: The selection committee considers injuries to key players, and Alabama had a few scares Saturday. Receiver Derek Meadows appeared to be knocked unconscious in the first quarter, and coach Kalen DeBoer later said Meadows suffered a concussion. Running back Jam Miller, who had 136 yards in the Tide’s win against Vandy, also suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Auburn. The Tigers gave Georgia fits Saturday night and controlled the first half. They’ll have home-field advantage in the Iron Bowl, where anything can happen.
Why they could be here: The Rebels were underwhelming after a bye week and fortunate to beat Washington State at home 24-21. The committee pays attention to how teams win, and the Rebels trailed 14-10 late in the third quarter. Still, Ole Miss has wins against Tulane, which is in the running for the Group of 5 playoff spot, and the committee will continue to reward the Sept. 27 home win against LSU. The Rebels also have a budding star in quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who accounted for three total touchdowns against the Cougars on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Georgia State, Kentucky and Arkansas are a combined 5-12 and unranked, and the win against the Wildcats is the Rebels’ lone road win.
Need to know: Ole Miss has back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma looming, what’s likely to be its last games against ranked opponents. If the Rebels were to lose both, the rest of their schedule could raise concerns with some committee meeting members. Ole Miss needs to find a statement road win this month to help avoid that debate.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Georgia. The Bulldogs found a way to beat a gritty Auburn team on the road and are looking better than the Sooners right now.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Auburn in the first half but found a way to win on the road against a decent team that had a bye week to prepare. Georgia remains one of the country’s top one-loss teams but will be stuck behind Alabama in the committee meeting room because of the head-to-head tiebreaker as long as their records are comparable. Georgia could also be ahead of Oregon because the Bulldogs’ lone loss was in overtime on the road, while Oregon lost at home Saturday to IU.
Why they could be lower: Georgia’s best win is against a Tennessee team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone yet, and the Bulldogs needed overtime to do it. Texas Tech is still undefeated, and some committee members could reward it for that ahead of both Georgia and Oregon.
Need to know: Georgia’s two best remaining chances to impress the selection committee will be Saturday against Ole Miss and in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. If Georgia beats the Jackets, it’s still possible they could have a win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. Ole Miss. If the Rebels play like they did in their win against LSU — a complete game — they’ll give Georgia trouble.
Why they could be here: The Ducks faced their toughest opponent to date and lost at home to Indiana, a significant setback in the Big Ten race but hardly a dagger in their CFP hopes. The bigger problem is the lack of a true statement win, as the Sept. 27 double overtime win at Penn State has been significantly devalued following the three-loss Nittany Lions’ unraveling. A win against FCS Montana State isn’t going to impress the committee, nor will a win against an Oklahoma State team that fired its head coach. Oregon’s best win so far is at 4-2 Northwestern, which also beat Penn State. Indiana’s defense also gave Oregon its biggest challenge of the season, holding the Ducks to a season-low 20 points.
Why they could be lower: Oregon didn’t exactly pass the eye test against better competition, as quarterback Dante Moore threw two interceptions and was sacked six times. Oregon has three pick-sixes this season, its most in a season since 2018. Oregon was just 3-of-14 on third downs and was held to 81 rushing yards.
Need to know: That might have been Oregon’s last chance during the regular season to impress the selection committee with a win against a ranked opponent. If the Ducks run the table and finish as a one-loss team — which they should barring an upset — that could come back to haunt them on Selection Day. Another one-loss team like Alabama that has multiple wins against CFP top 25 teams will get the edge in a debate. That doesn’t mean their playoff hopes are in any danger, but it could mean the difference between hosting a first-round home game and traveling.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The Ducks also have a tricky matchup Nov. 22 against USC but will have home-field advantage. Ending the season on the road against a respectable Washington team after a tough game against the Trojans is more difficult than it appears.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders have gained traction and legitimized their place in the playoff with three straight convincing wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records. Entering Week 7, Texas Tech was ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, which gave the average top 25 opponent a 44.1% chance to achieve the same undefeated record against the same opponents. The Red Raiders have the best chance to reach the Big 12 title game and win it, which would guarantee them a spot in the field.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech’s weak nonconference schedule includes a win against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-3), Kent State (2-4) and Oregon State (0-7). Their best win is Sept. 20 at Utah, which isn’t as impressive as most of the other contenders’ statement wins.
Need to know: Backup quarterback storylines have been integral to the CFP selection process — for better or for worse, depending on the situation — and the Red Raiders have proved on multiple occasions now that they can win without injured starter Behren Morton. He was hurt again Saturday and left the game against Kansas, but the Big 12’s third-leading passer also had to leave against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Utah with injuries. The committee will appreciate the fact that Texas Tech has a No. 2 capable of winning in Will Hammond.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars and Red Raiders could face each other in the Big 12 championship game, but they have to face each other during the regular season first.
Why they could be here: Even the speedy return of injured quarterback John Mateer wasn’t enough to overcome a stingy Texas defense Saturday, as the Sooners were held to just six points. Oklahoma’s Week 2 win against Michigan is still one of the better nonconference wins in the country, though, and helps separate the Sooners from some other teams with weaker nonconference lineups. The selection committee also respects wins against opponents with .500 records or better, and the Sept. 20 win against Auburn would still be favorable in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be lower: Texas was the best defense OU has faced so far, and it exposed some weaknesses teams like Illinois State, Temple and Kent State couldn’t. Mateer threw three interceptions and completed 20 of 38 pass attempts just 17 days after surgery on his right hand.
Need to know: Oklahoma entered Saturday with the most difficult remaining schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The Sooners travel to South Carolina on Saturday before ending the season against what should be five straight ranked opponents.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Tide have won five straight and will have a bye week and home-field advantage.
Why they could be here: The Tigers’ lone loss is to an undefeated Ole Miss on the road, and LSU’s defense continues to be one of the best in the country. LSU held off a pesky South Carolina team Saturday, limiting the Gamecocks to just one touchdown.
Why they could be lower: Wins against Clemson and Florida aren’t going to separate LSU from other one-loss teams, and the Tigers have struggled to consistently play complete football in all three phases. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier threw two interceptions against South Carolina, and the Tigers also lost a fumble. LSU is still searching for a statement win.
Need to know: One of the statistics the selection committee has historically leaned on is called “relative scoring defense,” which is something it would probably look at with LSU. How are the Tigers doing defensively against teams that typically score more than they allow? Those tests are yet to come, but the 24-19 loss to Ole Miss likely didn’t help that particular metric. If LSU is going to lean on its elite defense, it has to show up against the best offenses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. It’s not just that it’s Bama — it’s the third straight game against a ranked opponent, as LSU faces Vandy and Texas A&M before the Tide. If LSU loses to one of them, it will be under tremendous pressure to win in Tuscaloosa.
Why they could be here: The Vols were fortunate to beat a 2-4 Arkansas team at home — one week after they escaped Mississippi State with an overtime win. It hasn’t been pretty, and Tennessee is still searching for a statement win. They’ve got an FCS win, a lopsided win against UAB and a decent nonconference win against a 3-3 Syracuse team that was more formidable with its starting quarterback in the lineup at the time they played them. That’s a detail the selection committee would consider.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee hasn’t looked like an elite team, struggling to stop the run and racking up penalties. The Vols were tied at 17 at the half with a team that recently fired its head coach. The committee has overlooked a lack of statement wins before, but typically that forgiveness happens when a contender is controlling games — not squeaking by unranked teams.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, the Vols would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — the American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Alabama. Tennessee’s lone loss was in overtime to Georgia, which also lost to Alabama.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 Indiana
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Alabama
No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Alabama winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 LSU/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Indiana
No. 10 Oklahoma/No. 7 Georgia winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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