Congressional stock trading has fallen off sharply this year, according to an analysis by a popular financial news site and some insiders believe its because US lawmakers are feeling heat from a possible legislative clampdown.
The volume of stock trades made by members of Congress tumbled more than 75% in the nine months of this year to just 1,800 trades versus 8,000 a year earlier, according to data from Unusual Whales.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made just six trades this year as a congresswoman representing San Francisco. Those include selling Roblox shares, buying Apple and Microsoft shares and acquiring a stake in a luxury hotel, according to recent filings.
Thats a steep dropoff from the 39 trades she made in 2022, the 24 trades she made in 2021, and the 38 trades she made in 2020.
A spokesperson for Pelosi did not respond to a request for comment.
While the markets have been bumpy this year, overall trading volume is down just 10%, according to CBOE data, versus the three-quarters plunge inside Congress.
Passing legislation, sources say, is critical to keep Congress from trading again.
If a movement doesnt turn into a law, Congress isnt going to remain scared, Jeff Hauser, founder of nonprofit watchdog the Revolving Door Project, said. The combination of a bill that could pass and the broader conversation acts as a deterrent.
Ethics experts say the another reason may simply be that members dont feel the trades are worth the trouble anymore.
Federal Reserve governors Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan resigned after scrutiny of their trades. Now-retired Sen. Richard Burr stepped down as Chair of the Intelligence Committee and now-ex-Sen. James Inhofe resigned after scrutiny of trades.
It may not be worth the grief, Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at MIT, told On The Money.
The founder of Unusual Whales, who prefers to remain anonymous, notes that members of Congress have lately been far more diligent about filing their trades quickly. The STOCK Act requires members to file their trades within 45 days but members of Congress like Pelosi lately are filing within just a few days.
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There is limited upside and maybe a lot of downside to congressional trading these days, agrees Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital. Shining a light on this has played a big role.
Another issue: Some of the most lucrative, valuable stocks like Google and Amazon which Pelosi had snatched up are presenting an even greater conflict of interest than they did previously.
The tech high flyers that many members wanted to trade in are politically fraught these days a reference to lawsuits both Google and Amazon are facing, Stewart adds.
While some applaud the recent trend, others are more cautious and note stronger laws against stock trading need to be codified.
Attention helps and attention makes transparency more effective, Jeff Hauser, founder of nonprofit watchdog the Revolving Door Project, said. But even more effective than transparency is strict rules.
As for the question of whether regulators will ever be willing to regulate themselves, the answer is almost always no. Still, Hauser is optimistic that with enough sticks not to mention the dwindling supply of carrots lawmakers could eventually succumb.
If the momentum grows big enough, it could pass, Hauser said. And it only has to pass one time.
