Congressional stock trading has fallen off sharply this year, according to an analysis by a popular financial news site and some insiders believe its because US lawmakers are feeling heat from a possible legislative clampdown.
The volume of stock trades made by members of Congress tumbled more than 75% in the nine months of this year to just 1,800 trades versus 8,000 a year earlier, according to data from Unusual Whales.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has made just six trades this year as a congresswoman representing San Francisco. Those include selling Roblox shares, buying Apple and Microsoft shares and acquiring a stake in a luxury hotel, according to recent filings.
Thats a steep dropoff from the 39 trades she made in 2022, the 24 trades she made in 2021, and the 38 trades she made in 2020.
A spokesperson for Pelosi did not respond to a request for comment.
While the markets have been bumpy this year, overall trading volume is down just 10%, according to CBOE data, versus the three-quarters plunge inside Congress.
Passing legislation, sources say, is critical to keep Congress from trading again.
If a movement doesnt turn into a law, Congress isnt going to remain scared, Jeff Hauser, founder of nonprofit watchdog the Revolving Door Project, said. The combination of a bill that could pass and the broader conversation acts as a deterrent.
Ethics experts say the another reason may simply be that members dont feel the trades are worth the trouble anymore.
Federal Reserve governors Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan resigned after scrutiny of their trades. Now-retired Sen. Richard Burr stepped down as Chair of the Intelligence Committee and now-ex-Sen. James Inhofe resigned after scrutiny of trades.
It may not be worth the grief, Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at MIT, told On The Money.
The founder of Unusual Whales, who prefers to remain anonymous, notes that members of Congress have lately been far more diligent about filing their trades quickly. The STOCK Act requires members to file their trades within 45 days but members of Congress like Pelosi lately are filing within just a few days.
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There is limited upside and maybe a lot of downside to congressional trading these days, agrees Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital. Shining a light on this has played a big role.
Another issue: Some of the most lucrative, valuable stocks like Google and Amazon which Pelosi had snatched up are presenting an even greater conflict of interest than they did previously.
The tech high flyers that many members wanted to trade in are politically fraught these days a reference to lawsuits both Google and Amazon are facing, Stewart adds.
While some applaud the recent trend, others are more cautious and note stronger laws against stock trading need to be codified.
Attention helps and attention makes transparency more effective, Jeff Hauser, founder of nonprofit watchdog the Revolving Door Project, said. But even more effective than transparency is strict rules.
As for the question of whether regulators will ever be willing to regulate themselves, the answer is almost always no. Still, Hauser is optimistic that with enough sticks not to mention the dwindling supply of carrots lawmakers could eventually succumb.
If the momentum grows big enough, it could pass, Hauser said. And it only has to pass one time.
Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon, he may have one for real.
The president promised his America would “drill, baby drill” to new levels of prosperity by making the most of its reserves of oil and gas.
Mr Trump has now axed hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon power and clean energy research and given them instead to fossil fuel investments.
Image: Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters
There’s no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America.
Nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt.
When we visited, the massive 200m-wide turbines were going round – a temporary injunction has allowed construction to continue – but they’re not yet connected to the grid.
As long as Mr Trump is in power, it’s not certain they’ll ever be.
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The future of other major wind and solar developments is also in doubt, as is more than $100bn (£75bn) in clean energy investment.
There’s less doubt about the fossil fuel business however. The industry is getting what it asked for after backing Mr Trump’s re-election.
US energy secretary Chris Wright and many key White House staff and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.
Analysis for Sky News, by Global Witness, reveals that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, US oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average of the world’s next largest producers.
An increase that really took off during Mr Trump’s first presidency.
The analysis of company data goes on to reveal how US oil and gas production is now forecast to continue growing – by 2035 to double that of its next closest rival, Russia.
“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate breakdown, the US has doubled down on fossil fuels, ramping up production,” said Patrick Galey, of Global Witness.
A fact that would probably be music to the president’s ears and to many conservative Americans who voted for him.
Image: US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia’s by 2035
Mr Trump’s “energy emergency” was perhaps a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals.
The only problem is, apart from accelerating global warming, his energy plan is on course to make America worse off.
‘US energy demand to grow 25%’
For the first time in years, US electricity demand has been going up. It is driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centres – further encouraged by Mr Trump’s aim for American supremacy in AI.
Demand is rising and renewable energy is the quickest, cheapest way to meet it.
Image: Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters
President Trump has championed supremacy in AI – backing investments in and clearing red tape for massive energy-hungry data centres.
After declining, then remaining stable for years, US energy demand is now forecast to grow 25% by 2030, according to analysis by ICF International.
But where will all the electricity come from?
We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of- the-art gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia.
Demand for new turbines has never been greater, according to Bill Newsom, the US CEO. Wait times for new turbines is now double what it was just two years ago.
Image: Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia
And while America will need gas to meet rising demand – it’s twice as clean as coal and provides “baseload” power that renewable energy grids can’t yet match – it can’t be built fast enough.
American businesses, including AI, will likely suffer because they can’t get the power they need.
US consumers – who Mr Trump promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.
And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.
The speed of transition being called for to meet the 1.5C Paris target was always going to be very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out.
But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr Trump risks making Americans – and the climate – worse off.
A new theory suggests dark matter and dark energy may not exist. Physicist Rajendra Gupta’s model proposes that the universe’s forces weaken over time, naturally explaining cosmic expansion and galactic motion without unseen matter or energy.
A New York jury was unable to reach a verdict in the case of Anton and James Peraire-Bueno, the MIT-educated brothers accused of fraud and money laundering related to a 2023 exploit of the Ethereum blockchain that resulted in the removal of $25 million in digital assets.
In a Friday ruling, US District Judge Jessica Clarke declared a mistrial in the case after jurors failed to agree on whether to convict or acquit the brothers, Inner City Press reported.
The decision came after a three-week trial in Manhattan federal court, resulting in differing theories from prosecutors and the defense regarding the Peraire-Buenos’ alleged actions involving maximal extractable value (MEV) bots.
A MEV attack occurs when traders or validators exploit transaction ordering on a blockchain for profit. Using automated MEV bots, they front-run or sandwich other trades by paying higher fees for priority.
In the brothers’ case, they allegedly used MEV bots to “trick” users into trades. The exploit, though planned by the two for months, reportedly took just 12 seconds to net the pair $25 million.
In closing arguments to the jury this week, prosecutors argued that the brothers “tricked” and “defrauded” users by engaging in a “bait and switch” scheme, allowing them to extract about $25 million in crypto. They cited evidence suggesting that the two plotted their moves for months and researched potential consequences of their actions.
“Ladies and gentlemen, bait and switch is not a trading strategy,” said prosecutors on Tuesday, according to Inner City Press. “It is fraud. It is cheating. It is rigging the system. They pretended to be a legitimate MEV-Boost validator.”
In contrast, defense lawyers for the Peraire-Buenos pushed back against the US government’s theory of the two pretending to be “honest validators” to extract the funds, though the court ultimately allowed the argument to be presented to the jury.
“This is like stealing a base in baseball,” said the defense team on Tuesday. “If there’s no fraud, there’s no conspiracy, there’s no money laundering.”
What’s at stake for the crypto industry following the verdict?
Though the case ended without a verdict, the mistrial has left the crypto industry divided, with many observers debating the legal and technical implications of treating MEV-related activity as a potential criminal offense. Crypto advocacy organization Coin Center filed an amicus brief on Monday after opposition from prosecutors.
“I don’t think what’s in the indictment constitutes wire fraud,” said Carl Volz, a partner at law firm Gunnercooke, in a Monday op-ed for DLNews. “A jury could conclude differently, but if it does, it’ll be because the brothers googled stupidly and talked too much, for too long, with the wrong people.”