World

Israel-Hamas war: How did this happen?

Published

2 years ago

October 13, 2023

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Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?

Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.

And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.

But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.

Israel-Gaza latest: Israel releases graphic photos of dead babies

Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.

Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.

As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”

Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was.
Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.

Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.

I asked Dr Erekat what he thought his legacy would be.

“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.

Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.

There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.

The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.

For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”

It was the last time we would speak. Dr Erekat died a few months later from COVID.

Hamas and Iran

In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.

He didn’t resemble the moderates I know in the West Bank at all. He was an Islamist. And he said Israel has no right to exist.

He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.

“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.

“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”

Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.

It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.

Israel’s caged enemy

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.

Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.

More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.

Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.

It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.

American disengagement

Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.

The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.

But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.

Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.

In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.

“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”

The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.

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And so the region’s weakest link was ignored and it ignited.

In Iran, they are no doubt delighted that a normalisation deal between their enemy, Israel, and Saudi Arabia is now in the freezer.

Mr Biden is now desperately trying to take control of the situation; to influence the remoulding of the Middle East that we are seeing.

The question is, can he? It feels out of control now.

World

Donald Trump urges NATO countries to stop ‘shocking’ Russian oil purchases to end Ukraine war

Published

11 mins ago

September 14, 2025

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Donald Trump urges NATO countries to stop 'shocking' Russian oil purchases to end Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia, Donald Trump has said.

The US president, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said the alliance’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”.

Doing so “greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power, over Russia,” he said.

NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.

A NATO ban on the practice plus tariffs on China would “also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR”, he added.

The president said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.

‘China’s grip’ on Russia

“China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia,” Mr Trump posted, and powerful tariffs “will break that grip”.

The US president has already placed a 25% import tax on goods from India over its buying of Russian energy products.

Mr Trump said responsibility for the war fell on his predecessor Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

He did not include in that list Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion.

Village changes hands

On the battlefield on Saturday, Russian troops took control of the village of Novomykolaivka in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said.

A drone attack hit an oil refinery in the city of Ufa, around 870 miles (1,400km) from the border with Ukraine, the local governor said, calling it a terrorist incident.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday the 32-nation alliance would place military equipment on the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression.

Operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ followed Wednesday’s provocative incursion by multiple Russian drones into the airspace of Poland, another NATO member.

Polish forces shot down the drones, which Moscow said went astray because they were jammed.

Prince Harry’s surprise visit

The Duke of Sussex made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Friday, promising to do “everything possible” to help the recovery of injured military staff.

Travelling on an overnight train to Kyiv, Prince Harry, who has since left the country, told The Guardian: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.

“We have to keep it [the war] in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”

World

At least 32 people killed as Israel intensifies airstrikes in Gaza City, medical staff say

Published

11 mins ago

September 14, 2025

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At least 32 people killed as Israel intensifies airstrikes in Gaza City, medical staff say

A barrage of airstrikes has killed at least 32 people in Gaza City as Israel continued intensifying its offensive there, medical staff have said.

The dead include 12 children, according to the morgue in Shifa Hospital, where the bodies were brought.

Health officials said one of the strikes killed a family of 10, including a mother and her three children.

The Palestinian Football Association said a player for the Al-Helal Sporting Club, Mohammed Ramez Sultan, was killed with 14 members of his family.

Israel’s army did not immediately respond to questions about the strikes when contacted by the Associated Press news agency.

Israel has in recent days increased its strikes on Gaza City, having ordered residents to leave what it says is Hamas’s last stronghold.

Hundreds of thousands of people are still in the city, struggling under conditions of famine, which was declared by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) three weeks ago. Israel previously denied there is a famine in Gaza.

Aid workers say the number of people leaving has spiked in recent weeks, but many families remain stuck due to difficulties with transportation and housing.

Others have been displaced many times and do not want to move again, not trusting that anywhere in the Strip is safe.

In a message shared on social media on Saturday, Israel’s army told the remaining Palestinians in Gaza City to “leave immediately” and move south into what it is calling a humanitarian zone.

Sites in southern Gaza, where Israel is telling people to go, are overcrowded, the United Nations has said.

A spokesperson for the Israeli army said more than 250,000 people have left Gaza City – but the UN puts the number at around 100,000 between mid-August and mid-September.

The UN and aid groups have warned that displacing hundreds of thousands of people will exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave.

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said on Saturday that seven people, including children, died from malnutrition-related causes over the past 24 hours.

Israel has said it now controls 75% of Gaza, much of which has been reduced to fields of rubble. It has vowed to take the rest.

The current conflict followed Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people and took around 250 people hostage.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 64,803 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

World

China warns UK and US after USS Higgins and HMS Richmond sail through Taiwan Strait

Published

11 mins ago

September 14, 2025

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China warns UK and US after USS Higgins and HMS Richmond sail through Taiwan Strait

China has warned the UK and the US after their warships sailed through the diplomatically-fraught Taiwan Strait.

Chinese naval and air forces were ordered to monitor and warn the two ships, the HMS Richmond and the USS Higgins, as they made their way through the 110-mile (180km) passage between the island and the Chinese mainland on Friday.

The pair were engaged in “trouble-making and provocation”, according to Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Eastern Theatre Command.

“The actions of the United States and Britain send the wrong signals and undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” it said in a statement.

The Ministry of Defence said the sailing was a routine passage, adding that wherever the Royal Navy operates, “it does so in full compliance with international law and norms, and exercises freedom of navigation rights in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea”.

The US Indo-Pacific Command also described the mission as a routine transit, describing the strait as “beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state.

“Navigational rights and freedoms in the Taiwan Strait should not be limited,” it said in a statement.

The British vessel, deployed in the East China Sea in 2021, is a Type 34, or Duke Class frigate, and the US ship is an Arleigh Burke-class (Flight II) Aegis guided missile destroyer.

China’s navy said earlier on Friday that its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which is still undergoing sea trials, had passed through the strait as well.

Last week, a Canadian and an Australian warship made the journey along the strategic waterway.

The US and its allies, including Canada, Britain and France, send ships along the strait, which they see as being in international waters, around once a month.

In June, another British warship, the HMS Spey, sailed through the strait to “cause trouble”, in Beijing’s words.

China views Taiwan as its own territory, which Taipei rejects, and claims the strait is part of its territorial waters.

Beijing has increased its military pressure on the island over the last five years, including by staging war games nearby.

Taiwan’s top China policymaker and head of its Mainland Affairs Council, said on Friday China was preparing to invade Taiwan.

Speaking in Washington, Chiu Chui-cheng warned that if Taiwan were to fall it would cause a regional “domino effect” that would threaten US security.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned what he called China’s “destabilising plans” for a disputed atoll in the South China Sea.

Mr Rubio said in a statement on Friday: “Beijing claiming Scarborough Reef as a nature preserve is yet another coercive attempt to advance sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours.”

The shoal lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but has been under Beijing’s control since 2012.

China claims almost all the sea, which is used to transport more than $3 trillion of shipping commerce annually, despite competing claims by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.