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Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?

Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.

And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.

But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.

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Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.

Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.

As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”

Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was.
Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.

Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.

Israeli soldiers on a tank near the Israel-Gaza border. Pic: AP
Image:
Israeli soldiers on a tank near the Israel-Gaza border. Pic: AP

I asked Dr Erekat what he thought his legacy would be.

“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.

Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.

Palestinians wave their national flag by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence east of Khan Younis. Pic: AP
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Palestinians wave their national flag by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence east of Khan Younis. Pic: AP

There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.

The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.

For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”

It was the last time we would speak. Dr Erekat died a few months later from COVID.

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Palestinians evacuate the wounded after an Israeli airstrike in Rafah refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
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Palestinians evacuate the wounded after an Israeli airstrike in the Rafah refugee camp, in the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

Hamas and Iran

In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.

He didn’t resemble the moderates I know in the West Bank at all. He was an Islamist. And he said Israel has no right to exist.

He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.

“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.

“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”

Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.

It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.

Israeli soldiers take position near Israel's border with Gaza
Image:
Israeli soldiers take position near Israel’s border with Gaza

Israel’s caged enemy

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.

Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.

An Israeli tank fires near Israel's border with the Gaza Strip
Image:
An Israeli tank fires near Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip

More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.

Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.

It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
Image:
Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza

American disengagement

Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.

The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.

But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.

Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.

Israeli soldiers surround a Palestinian who ran at them with a knife at the site of a music festival near the border with the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP
Image:
Israeli soldiers surround a Palestinian who ran at them with a knife at the site of a music festival near the border with the Gaza Strip. Pic: AP

In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.

“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”

The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.

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And so the region’s weakest link was ignored and it ignited.

In Iran, they are no doubt delighted that a normalisation deal between their enemy, Israel, and Saudi Arabia is now in the freezer.

Mr Biden is now desperately trying to take control of the situation; to influence the remoulding of the Middle East that we are seeing.

The question is, can he? It feels out of control now.

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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says US and Moscow moving in ‘right direction’ for Ukraine peace

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Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says US and Moscow moving in 'right direction' for Ukraine peace

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said the US and Russia are moving in the “right direction” to end the war in Ukraine.

“We are ready to reach a deal, but there are still some specific points – elements of this deal which need to be fine-tuned,” Mr Lavrov told CBS News’ Face The Nation show, which will air on Sunday.

“We continue our contacts with the American side on the situation in Ukraine, there are several signs that we are moving in the right direction.”

A Ukrainian serviceman carries a dog out of a house damaged by a Russian airstrike in a residential neighborhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
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A Ukrainian serviceman carries a dog out of a house damaged by the Russian airstrike in Kyiv. Pic: AP

It comes after Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv came under the largest attack since July last year with at least 12 people killed and more than 100 injured.

Ukraine’s air force said a total of 215 drones and missiles were launched at the country by Russia on Wednesday night, with Kyiv among the areas worst hit.

Ukrainian officials said rescuers were still recovering bodies from the rubble.

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Trump: ‘I think we’re going to get peace’

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The strikes triggered a reaction by Mr Trump, who posted on his Truth Social platform saying: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV.

“Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”

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The US president was then asked about the Russian attacks while hosting Norway’s prime minister in the Oval Office, and said he “wasn’t happy” but insisted “we’re putting a lot of pressure on Russia”.

He was also asked about Crimea following reports that his peace plan includes the US acknowledging Moscow’s control of the territory.

Mr Trump admitted it would be “very difficult” for Ukraine to get the territory back, but reiterated his belief that “we’re getting close to a deal”.

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Day 96: ‘Vladimir STOP!’ Will Trump’s plea to Putin make a difference?

US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the US wanted to see both Ukraine and Russia step up to finalise a deal and further discussions were planned for the weekend.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeated many times that recognising occupied territory as Russia’s is a red line for his country.

Speaking about the airstrikes, he said: “It is very important that everyone in the world sees and understands what is really happening.”

Mr Zelenskyy was on a visit to South Africa when the missiles hit his country, prompting him to cut the trip short.

He said preliminary information indicated that Russia “used a ballistic missile manufactured in North Korea” and Ukraine’s special services were verifying the details.

He added if the missile was found to have been made in North Korea, it would be further proof “of the criminal nature of the alliance between Russia and Pyongyang”.

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A ‘barbaric’ 24 hours in the ‘horrendous’ Russia-Ukraine war leaves Donald Trump’s peace plan in tatters

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A 'barbaric' 24 hours in the 'horrendous' Russia-Ukraine war leaves Donald Trump's peace plan in tatters

Events in Ukraine over the last 24 hours have been utterly barbaric. Bad even by the standards of this horrendous war.  

Multiple Iranian drones and North Korean missiles laden with explosives brought carnage to swathes of the country, killing yet more civilians.

This was Russia’s answer to President Donald Trump’s peace plan and ultimatum. Normally, strangely reluctant to criticise Russia, even Trump was moved to implore Vladimir Putin to “STOP”.

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Ukrainian search personnel clear the rubble after a Russian ballistic missile attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, early Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)
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Ukrainian personnel clear rubble after a Russian ballistic missile attack in Kyiv. Pic: AP

A resident reacts at the site of an apartment building hit by a Russian ballistic missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine April 24, 2025. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
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A woman is helped after an apartment building was hit by a Russian ballistic missile strike. Pic: Reuters

A Ukrainian serviceman carries a dog out of a house damaged by a Russian airstrike in a residential neighborhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, April 24, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka)
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A Ukrainian serviceman carries a dog out of a house damaged by a Russian airstrike in Kyiv. Pic: AP

But in truth, throughout Trump’s Ukraine peace process – if it can be called that – most of America’s pressure has been on Ukraine.

The peace plan that has emerged from direct US talks, which were mainly with Russia, is one-sided, and to Ukraine and its European partners, it is a surrender plan which is impossible for Ukraine to accept.

Even Russia’s supporter in this war, China, has problems with it, in particular with America’s proposal that Russia is rewarded for its invasion with sovereignty of Crimea.

More on Donald Trump

Far from heading towards a peace deal, we are now, it seems, careering towards a crunch point that could see America give up on Ukraine completely, possibly blaming Kyiv for failure and renewing relations with Moscow.

Might will be proven right, and Vladimir Putin will be emboldened to do it all over again in a few years, possibly against other countries too. That is the fear in chancelleries across Europe.

There are two key questions now.

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‘Russia is winning peace talks’

An explosion of a drone is seen in the sky over the city during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine April 24, 2025. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich
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A drone explosion over Kyiv. Pic: Reuters

Does Trump mean he will walk away from trying to broker peace or supporting Ukraine entirely?

And if he does, can Ukraine carry on without US help?

European nations have said they will carry on supporting Ukraine. They see its survival and victory as essential for their own security.

They already give Ukraine €40bn in financial and military help. Ukraine would need another €20bn or so to fill the US gap – not that tall an order.

Pics from Telegram of Ukraine's capital Kyiv following Russian airstrike. https://t.me/s/dsns_telegram/41679
Russia launched a massive combined strike on Kyiv. According to preliminary data, 9 people have been killed, 63 injured, and 42 hospitalized, including 6 children. Recovery efforts are ongoing in 5 districts
Credit: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
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Destruction in Kyiv following a Russian airstrike. Pic: Telegram

A large-scale Russian missile and drone attack hit Kyiv overnight, killing nine people and injuring another 63, Ukrainian authorities said. Pic: Reuters
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A large-scale Russian missile and drone attack hit Kyiv overnight. Pic: Reuters

And they are beefing up their defence industries to do more to give Ukraine what it needs to fight Russia.

Ukraine’s defence increasingly depends on a homegrown drone industry, which doesn’t rely on American backing.

But Ukraine does need US intelligence, aerial defence support and satellite coverage provided by Starlink.

Were they to lose all that, they could be in trouble.

What exactly Trump does if and, as seems increasingly likely, when his deal fails, he is not making clear.

But what seems certain is America is caring less and less for Ukraine’s plight under this president.

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That poses some urgent and pressing questions for Europe.

Its leaders have always said they will support Ukraine “whatever it takes, as long as it takes”.

Do they have the political will and unity to do that, even without America by their side?

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Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings

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Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings

Pakistan has halted trade and India has revoked visas as tit-for-tat retaliatory actions ramp up between the two powers after an attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people.

The victims were mostly Indian tourists who had been visiting Pahalgam, a popular tourist destination in the Indian-held part of the territory, which both nuclear-armed nations claim as their own.

In response to the attack, India closed a border crossing, suspended a water-sharing treaty and downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan – which it blames for the assault.

Indian security force personnel stand guard at the site of a suspected militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam.
Pic: Reuters/Adnan Abidi
Image:
Indian security force personnel stand guard at the site of a militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam. Pic: Reuters/Adnan Abidi

The Indian government did not publicly produce any evidence connecting the attack to its neighbour, but said it had “cross-border” links to Pakistan.

Pakistan has denied the accusations and a previously unknown militant group calling itself Kashmir Resistance has claimed responsibility.

On Thursday, India’s foreign ministry said all visas issued to Pakistani nationals would be revoked, effective from Sunday.

It also advised Indian citizens not to travel to Pakistan and announced other measures including cutting the number of diplomatic staff and closing the only functional land border crossing between the nations.

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In return, Pakistan said it was closing its airspace to all Indian-owned and operated airlines and suspending all trade with India – including to and from any third country.

Similarly, it also announced the cancellation of all visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme – which allows some people to have a “Special Travel” document exempting them from visas.

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Kashmir’s ‘terror attack’: What happened?

‘Act of war’

The moves are just the latest escalation of tensions between the two, as Pakistan warned that any suspension of water supplies by India would be viewed as an “act of war”.

Both Pakistan and India saw protesters turn out on the streets, calling on their respective governments to go further.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of the National Security Committee to respond to India’s measures.

He warned that any attempt to disrupt the Indus Waters Treaty would be met with “full force” from Pakistan.

The landmark treaty has so far survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, as well as a major border skirmish in 1999.

It allows for a water-sharing system that is a lifeline for both countries – in particular for Pakistan’s agriculture.

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‘Ends of the Earth’

It comes after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to pursue those responsible for the attack “to the ends of the Earth”.

Speaking on Thursday at a public meeting in the eastern state of Bihar, he said: “I say to the whole world, India will identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers.

“We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth.”

Police in Indian Kashmir published notices on Thursday naming three suspected militants it claimed were “involved in” the attack.

Two of the three suspects were Pakistani nationals, according to the notice.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chairs the meeting of the National Security Committee, in Islamabad.
Pic: AP/Prime Minister's Office
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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chairs the meeting of the National Security Committee, in Islamabad.
Pic: AP/Prime Minister’s Office

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a rally in Madhubani in the eastern state of Bihar.
Pic: Reuters/Stringer
Image:
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a rally in Madhubani in the eastern state of Bihar.
Pic: Reuters/Stringer

A contested Kashmir

India and Pakistan each administer a part of Kashmir, but both claim the territory in its entirety.

The region has a long, volatile and complex history.

Recent years has seen India claim that violence in the area has calmed – despite a bloody rebellion against New Delhi raging for decades.

India claims the militancy in Kashmir is Pakistan-backed terrorism.

Pakistan denies this. In a statement Thursday, the country said it supported the self-determination of the Kashmiri people.

Many Muslim Kashmiris, in a Muslim-majority territory, consider the militants part of a home-grown struggle for freedom.

Diplomatic relations between the two were already weak before the latest escalation as Pakistan had expelled India’s envoy after India revoked the semi-autonomous status of Kashmir in 2019.

This deepened tensions in the region but things have largely held stable after the two countries renewed a previous ceasefire agreement in 2021.

A demonstrator shouts slogans as he is stopped by police during a protest near the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, India.
Pic: Reuters/Stringer
Image:
A demonstrator shouts as he is stopped by police during a protest near the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi after the attack.
Pic: Reuters/Stringer

Tens of thousands of people have been killed in Kashmir since the uprising began in 1989, but violence has tapered off in recent years and tourism has surged in the scenic region.

Until the most recent episode, tourists have not been the targets of such attacks.

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