World

Israel-Hamas war: How did this happen?

Published

2 years ago

October 13, 2023

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Was this a black swan moment? Or could it have been foreseen?

Certainly the Israeli intelligence failure was astonishing.

And the extreme Hamas barbarity was not something observers ever associated with the Palestinian cause.

But behind those huge shocks, there were signals. A perfect storm was brewing. The moderate Palestinians were ignored, the Israelis were distracted and the Americans were disengaged.

Israel-Gaza latest: Israel releases graphic photos of dead babies

Three years ago I sat down with two moderate West Bank Palestinians, Hanan Ashrawi and Saeb Erekat.

Ms Ashrawi is an elder stateswoman who was at the White House in 1993 when Bill Clinton pulled the Israelis and the Palestinians together.

As Yitzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat shook hands on the south lawn 30 years ago, Ms Ashrawi said: “The Palestinian state is emerging…”

Dr Erekat was the veteran Palestinian negotiator through every twist and turn of a peace process that never was.
Absorbing the past week’s events, I have been looking back now at my notes of our conversations.

Both warned about Hamas extremism. Both seemed defeated and despondent. They knew their decades-long drive for statehood was gone. They accepted that their own side’s intransigence had caused problems but overwhelmingly, they believed they had been undermined by America, Israel and the West.

I asked Dr Erekat what he thought his legacy would be.

“Even worse than my legacy? This is what makes me very sad… I am going to be used as an example by extremists in order to show [people], in advance, their fate if they follow in my steps… of where an attempt to recognise Israel, to renounce violence and accept the two-state solution actually led,” he told me.

Our conversation was prompted by the signing of the Abraham Accords – a Donald Trump-brokered deal which normalised relations between Israel and two Gulf nations – the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. It was widely seen as a breakthrough moment for the region and a blueprint for further Israeli-Arab integration.

There was one problem. The Palestinians had been left out of the conversation.

The Abraham Accords was an attempt to upturn diplomatic norms; to bypass the core issue (Israel-Palestine) and solve the byproduct issues (Arab-Israeli relations) in the hope that diplomatic reverse engineering would magically fix the Palestinian issue. It was a deal driven more by economic opportunities than by political realities.

For the moderate Palestinians it was another ‘dagger in the back’, as Dr Erekat put it. He had watched as his cause was consistently undermined: the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the cutting of funding, and the failure to call out or even notice the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

To Western and Gulf Arab leaders he said: “Congratulations… you have killed the two-state solution and you have killed any negotiations and I think you destroyed the Palestinian moderate camp; Palestinians who want peace, prosperity, human rights… God help this region.”

It was the last time we would speak. Dr Erekat died a few months later from COVID.

Hamas and Iran

In May 2021 at the end of the last Israel-Hamas war, I sat down in Gaza with the co-founder of Hamas, Mahmoud al-Zahar. It was the first time any Hamas leader had spoken since his group had launched what was then an unprecedented rocket attack on civilians in Israel.

He didn’t resemble the moderates I know in the West Bank at all. He was an Islamist. And he said Israel has no right to exist.

He also viewed moderate Palestinians as losers who had proved that negotiations with Israel were pointless.

“Practically, practically, that was proved,” the Hamas co-founder told me.

“It is not my assessment. Go and ask [Palestinian president] Mahmoud Abbas: ‘Are you now saying a two-state solution is viable or not?’… He will say no… The Israelis are not going to accept a two-state solution. You are now asking me to practise a failed process?”

Across Gaza, Iran’s influence is deep. On my last visit there, posters lined the streets of Iran’s military commander Qasem Soleimani, assassinated on the orders of then-president Mr Trump.

It’s been clear for years that the leadership in Tehran has moulded Hamas extremism and leveraged the Palestinian people’s hopelessness. It is all part of its axis of influence that swings through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, down to Gaza.

Israel’s caged enemy

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warns frequently of the danger Iran poses – but he usually frames it in the nuclear context – the prospect of Iran obtaining nuclear weapons.

With Gaza, his style (his detractors would call it hubris) allowed him to think he could contain Hamas and limit Iranian influence – to his advantage.

Hamas was the enemy in a cage. Mr Netanyahu used the situation as a political tool to remind everyone why the land can never be shared.

More moderate Israelis, like former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who I also spoke to, and who advocates for Jewish settlement dismantlement and genuine engagement with Palestinians, were pushed aside.

Then, Mr Netanyahu prompted an internal crisis (also through his own hubris?) – his controversial legal reforms ignited the country with massive protests. The consequence was a temporary breakdown in Israeli unity. Even the top brass military threatened to resign.

It was against this backdrop that Hamas struck. The enemy in the cage got out. And it was stronger than Israel could ever have imagined.

American disengagement

Above all that – America tried to disengage with the Middle East years ago. Forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a need to focus on China and, latterly, Russia, forced a new approach – helicopter diplomacy.

The plan was that historic normalisation deals between Israel and the Gulf Arabs would reshape the region and allow America to step back. If it had worked, it would have been a game changer.

But the Palestinians were not part of that conversation. They didn’t want to be without the commitment of statehood, and they weren’t encouraged to be because everyone knew that statehood commitment could never be delivered.

Mr Netanyahu’s politics had made it an impossibility.

In speeches, US President Joe Biden’s top advisers hardly mentioned Israel-Palestine. Even this week as National Security Council spokesman John Kirby countered my assertion that America had disengaged, he listed Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State and Saudi Arabia but didn’t mention Israel-Palestine until I prompted him.

“You are right, I did not and I should have,” Mr Kirby said. “… because we have been continuing to want to pursue a two-state solution.”

The truth is no one really believes that a two-state solution is achievable. Western diplomats have been quietly telling me this for several years.

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And so the region’s weakest link was ignored and it ignited.

In Iran, they are no doubt delighted that a normalisation deal between their enemy, Israel, and Saudi Arabia is now in the freezer.

Mr Biden is now desperately trying to take control of the situation; to influence the remoulding of the Middle East that we are seeing.

The question is, can he? It feels out of control now.

World

‘Nobody likes Trump’: Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

Published

12 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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'Nobody likes Trump': Sky News finds defiance on the streets of Tehran

To the sound of mournful chants and the slow beat of drums, they march, whipping their backs with metal flails.

It is an ancient ceremony going back almost 14 centuries – the Shia commemoration of Ashura.

But this year in particular has poignant significance for Iranians.

The devout remember the betrayal and death of the Imam Hussein as if it happened yesterday.

We filmed men and women weep as they worshipped at the Imamzadeh Saleh Shrine in northern Tehran.

The grandson of the Prophet Muhammad was killed by the armies of the Caliph Yazid in the seventh century Battle of Karbala.

Shia Muslims mark the anniversary every year and reflect on the virtue it celebrates – of resistance against oppression and injustice. But more so than ever this year, in the wake of Israel and America’s attacks on their country.

The story is one of prevailing over adversity and deception. A sense of betrayal is keenly felt here by people and officials.

Many Iranians believe they were lured into pursuing diplomacy as part of a ruse by the US.

Iran believed it was making diplomatic progress in talks with America, which it hoped could lead to a deal. Then Israel launched its attacks and, instead of condemning them, the US joined in.

“Death to Israel” chants resounded outside the mosque in skies that for 12 days were filled with the sounds of Israeli jets.

There is a renewed sense of defiance here.

One man told us: “The lesson to be learned from Hussein is not to give in to oppression, even if it is the most powerful force in the world.”

A woman was dismissive about the US president.

“I don’t think about Trump. Nobody likes him. He always wants to attack too many countries.”

Pictures on billboards nearby link Imam Hussein’s story and current events. They show the seventh century imam on horseback alongside images of modern missiles and drones from the present day.

Other huge signs remember the dead. Iran says almost 1,000 people were killed in the strikes, many of them women and children.

Officially Iran is projecting defiance, but not closing the door to diplomacy.

Government spokeswoman Dr Fatemeh Mohajerani told Sky News that Israel should not even think about attacking again.

“We are very strong in defence, and as state officials have announced, this time Israel will receive an even stronger response compared to previous times. We hope that Israel will not make such a mistake.”

But there is also a hint of conciliation. Senior Iranian officials have told Sky News back-channel efforts are under way to explore new talks with the US.

Israel had hoped its attacks could topple the Iranian leadership. Those hopes proved unfounded. The government is in control here.

For many Iranians it seems quite the opposite happened – the 12-day war has brought them closer together.

World

Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

Published

15 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Two security workers injured after grenades thrown at aid site, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation says

Two American security workers in Gaza were injured after grenades were thrown during food distribution in Khan Younis, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has said.

In a statement, the US and Israeli-backed aid group said a targeted terrorist attack was carried out at one of its sites in southern Gaza on Saturday morning.

The two Americans injured “are receiving medical treatment and are in stable condition,” it said, adding that the delivery of aid was “otherwise successful” and that “no local aid workers or civilians were harmed”.

GHF didn’t say exactly when the incident happened but claimed Hamas was behind the attack, adding: “GHF has repeatedly warned of credible threats from Hamas, including explicit plans to target American personnel, Palestinian aid workers, and the civilians who rely on our sites for food.

“Today’s attack tragically affirms those warnings.”

Later, the aid group posted a picture on social media, which it said showed “fragments of a grenade packed with ball bearings” that was used in the attack.

Asked by Sky’s US partner network, NBC News, whether the two injured individuals were responsible for handing out aid or were responsible for providing security, GHF said they were “American security workers” and “two American veterans.”

The aid group did not provide specific evidence that Hamas was behind the attack.

The US and Israeli-backed group has been primarily responsible for aid distribution since Israel lifted its 11-week blockade of the Gaza Strip in May.

It comes after Sky News analysis showed GHF aid distributions are associated with a significant increase in deaths in Gaza.

According to Gaza’s health ministry, 600 Palestinians have been killed while seeking aid from GHF sites as of 3 July, which charities and the UN have branded “death traps”.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press has reported that Israeli-backed American contractors guarding GHF aid centres in Gaza are using live ammunition and stun grenades.

GHF has vehemently denied the accusations, adding that it investigated AP’s allegations and found them to be “categorically false”.

Israel’s military added that it fires only warning shots and is investigating reports of civilian harm.

It denies deliberately shooting at any innocent civilians and says it’s examining how to reduce “friction with the population” in the areas surrounding the distribution centres.

World

Hamas gives ‘positive’ response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

Published

21 hours ago

July 5, 2025

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Hamas gives 'positive' response to ceasefire proposal but asks for amendments

Hamas has said it has “submitted its positive response” to the latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza to mediators.

The proposal for a 60-day ceasefire was presented by US President Donald Trump, who has been pushing hard for a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set to visit the White House next week to discuss a deal.

Mr Trump said Israel had agreed to his proposed ceasefire terms, and he urged Hamas to accept the deal as well.

Hamas’ “positive” response to the proposal had slightly different wording on three issues around humanitarian aid, the status of the Israeli Defence Forces inside Gaza and the language around guarantees beyond the 60-day ceasefire, a source with knowledge of the negotiations revealed.

But the source told Sky News: “Things are looking good.”

Hamas said it is “fully prepared to immediately enter into a round of negotiations regarding the mechanism for implementing this framework” without elaborating on what needed to be worked out in the proposal’s implementation.

The US said during the ceasefire it would “work with all parties to end the war”.

A Hamas official said on condition of anonymity that the truce could start as early as next week.

But he added that talks were needed first to establish how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage and to specify the amount of humanitarian aid that will be allowed to enter Gaza during the ceasefire.

He said negotiations on a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in return for the release of the remaining hostages would start on the first day of the truce.

Hamas has been seeking guarantees that the 60-day ceasefire would lead to a total end to the nearly 21-month-old war, which caused previous rounds of negotiations to fail as Mr Netanyahu has insisted that Israel would continue fighting in Gaza to ensure the destruction of Hamas.

The Hamas official said that Mr Trump has guaranteed that the ceasefire will extend beyond 60 days if necessary to reach a peace deal, but there is no confirmation from the US of such a guarantee.

Speaking to journalists on Air Force One, Mr Trump welcomed Hamas’s “positive spirit” to the proposal, adding that there could be a ceasefire deal by next week.

Hamas also said it wants more aid to flow through the United Nations and other humanitarian agencies, which comes as the UN human rights officer said it recorded 613 Palestinians killed in Gaza within a month while trying to obtain aid.

Most of them were said to have been killed while trying to reach food distribution points by the controversial US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

The spokeswoman for the UN human rights office, Ravina Shamdasani, said the agency was not able to attribute responsibility for the killings, but added that “it is clear that the Israeli military has shelled and shot at Palestinians trying to reach the distribution points” operated by GHF.

Ms Shamdasani said that of the total tallied, 509 killings were “GHF-related”, meaning at or near its distribution sites.

The GHF accused the UN of taking its casualty figures “directly from the Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry” and of trying “to falsely smear our effort”, which echoed statements to Sky News by the executive director of GHF, Johnnie Moore.

Mr Moore called the UN figures a “disinformation campaign” that is “meant to shut down our efforts” in the Gaza Strip.