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The Israel-Hamas war is a “new cloud” on the horizon that threatens to darken an already murky global economic outlook, the head of the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Kristalina Georgieva said severe shocks are becoming “the new normal” in an economy dominated by weak growth.

Speaking at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Marrakech, she confirmed she is “closely monitoring how the situation evolves” – especially when it comes to oil prices.

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Bombardment at dawn in Gaza City

And while there have already been some market movements, Ms Georgieva stressed it is too early to predict the full economic impact of the conflict.

“Very clearly, this is a new cloud on not the safest horizon for the world economy, a new cloud darkening this horizon,” she told a news conference.

Many financial leaders have expressed concern about the sudden eruption of violence in the long-running conflict, which has already claimed more than 2,500 lives.

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Ms Georgieva said: “It’s heartbreaking to see innocent civilians dying. Who pays the price? It is the innocent who pay the price.”

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire, who is also in Morocco, told reporters any regional expansion of the conflict would lead to “problematic economic consequences” for energy prices and global growth.

Even before Hamas launched its unprecedented attack last weekend, the IMF was warning global growth was set to remain tepid for this year and next.

It has forecast growth of 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 – well below the historical average of 3.8% seen between 2000 and 2019.

In a statement on Thursday, the agency said: “The IMF deeply mourns the tragic loss of life of so many civilians in Israel and Gaza.

“To those who have lost loved ones, to colleagues and partners in the region, and those worried about family and friends, you are in our thoughts. We hope that peace and stability prevail.”

Read more:
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What is Hamas? In 60 seconds

Elsewhere in her news conference, Ms Georgieva warned interest rates will need to remain higher for longer because inflation remains elevated in many countries.

The IMF recently released a new report that suggested the UK will have the slowest rate of economic growth in the G7: 0.6% compared with 1.2% in the EU and 1.5% in the US.

But according to Sky’s economics and data editor Ed Conway, the gloomy forecast needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

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Octopus to get tentacles around Hammond-backed fintech fund

One of Britain’s leading venture capital investors is close to unveiling a deal to take over a nascent fintech fund which counted Lord Hammond, the former chancellor, among its advisors.

Sky News has learnt that Octopus Ventures has provisionally agreed to absorb the Fintech Growth Fund (FGF), which boasted of financial commitments from Barclays, the London Stock Exchange’s parent company, Mastercard and NatWest Group after it was set up three years ago.

The FGF has struggled to hit its original fundraising target and has yet to formally disclose any investments.

Sources close to a number of its investors said it was expected to be taken over by Octopus Investments in the coming weeks, with the transaction to be completed by the end of June.

Peel Hunt, the investment bank, had been advising on the fundraising for the last two years, and was itself an investor in the fund.

The FGF was originally conceived as a vehicle that would back high-potential UK-based fintechs, largely between their Series B and pre-public listing rounds of funding.

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According to an announcement made in August 2023, it aimed to make between four and eight investments annually, with cheques of between £10m and £100m.

In addition to Lord Hammond, the FGF’s advisory board included Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia, the former Virgin Money boss; Baroness Morrissey, the former Legal & General Investment Management executive; Lord Grimstone, the former trade minister; and Sir Charles Bowman, former Lord Mayor of London.

Octopus Investments, which is now run by Erin Platt, the former boss of Silicon Valley Bank UK, is said to have significant ambitions for the FGF, which has built a lengthy pipeline of potential investments.

A spokesperson for Octopus Investments declined to comment this weekend, while the FGF could not be reached for comment.

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge – and she’s not alone

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Mission: Impossible? Chancellor heads to the IMF with a very big challenge - and she's not alone

There will be much to chew over at the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) spring meetings this week.

Central bankers and finance ministers will descend on Washington for its latest bi-annual gathering, a place where politicians and academics converge, all of them trying to make sense of what’s going on in the global economy.

Everything and nothing has changed since they last met in October – one man continues to dominate the agenda.

Six months ago, delegates were wondering if Donald Trump could win the election and what that might mean for tax and tariffs: How far would he push it? Would his policy match his rhetoric?

Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. Pic: Reuters

This time round, expect iterations of the same questions: Will the US president risk plunging the world’s largest economy into recession?

Yes, he put on a bombastic display on his so-called “Liberation Day”, but will he now row back? Have the markets effectively checked him?

Behind the scenes, finance ministers from around the world will be practising their powers of persuasion, each jostling for meetings with their US counterparts to negotiate a reduction in Trump’s tariffs.

That includes Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who is still holding out hope for a trade deal with the US – although she is not alone in that.

Read more:
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Could Trump make a deal with UK?

Are we heading for a recession?

The IMF’s economists have already made up their minds about Trump’s potential for damage.

Last week, they warned about the growing risks to financial stability after a period of turbulence in the financial markets, induced by Trump’s decision to ratchet up US protectionism to its highest level in a century.

By the middle of this week the organisation will publish its World Economic Outlook, in which it will downgrade global growth but stop short of predicting a full-blown recession.

Others are less optimistic.

Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said last week: “Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession. We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries.”

She acknowledged the world was undergoing a “reboot of the global trading system,” comparing trade tensions to “a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over”.

She went on: “To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.”

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing on the Global Policy Agenda to open the IMF and World Bank's 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva. Pic: Reuters

Don’t poke the bear

It was a carefully calibrated response. Georgieva did not lay the blame at the US’s door and stopped short of calling on the Trump administration to stop or water down its aggressive tariffs policy.

That might have been a choice. To the frustration of politicians past and present, the IMF does not usually shy away from making its opinions known.

Last year it warned Jeremy Hunt against cutting taxes, and back in 2022 it openly criticised the Liz Truss government’s plans, warning tax cuts would fuel inflation and inequality.

Taking such a candid approach with Trump invites risks. His administration is already weighing up whether to withdraw from global institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.

The US is the largest shareholder in both, and its departure could be devastating for two organisations that have been pillars of the world economic order since the end of the Second World War.

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Here in the UK, Andrew Bailey has already raised concerns about the prospect of global fragmentation.

It is “very important that we don’t have a fragmentation of the world economy,” the Bank of England’s governor said.

“A big part of that is that we have support and engagement in the multilateral institutions, institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, that support the operation of the world economy. That’s really important.”

The Trump administration might take a different view when its review of intergovernmental organisations is complete.

That is the main tension running through this year’s spring meetings.

How much the IMF will say and how much we will have to read between the lines, remains to be seen.

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

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Landlords of major discount retailer brace for swingeing rent cuts

The new owner of The Original Factory Shop (TOFS), one of Britain’s leading independent discount retailers, is preparing to unveil a package of savage rent cuts for its store landlords.

Sky News understands that Modella Capital – which recently agreed to buy WH Smith’s high street arm – is finalising plans for a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) at TOFS.

City sources said the CVA – which requires court approval – could be unveiled within days.

Property sources cited industry rumours that significant store closures and job losses could form part of TOFS’ plans, while demands for two-year rent-free periods at some shops are said to also feature.

A spokesman for Modella declined to comment.

Modella, which also owns Hobbycraft, bought TOFS from its previous owner, Duke Street Capital, just two months ago.

Almost immediately, it engaged restructuring experts at Interpath to work on the plans.

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Sources have speculated that dozens of TOFS stores could close under a CVA, while a major distribution centre is also thought to feature in the proposals.

Any so-called ‘landlord-led’ CVA which triggered store closures would inevitably lead to job losses among TOFS’ workforce, which was said to number about 1,800 people at the time of the takeover.

TOFS, which sells beauty brands such as L’Oreal, the sportswear label Adidas and DIY tools made by Black & Decker, trades from about 180 stores.

The chain, which was founded in 1969, was bought by the private equity firm Duke Street in 2007.

Duke Street had tried to sell the business before, having supported it through the COVID-19 pandemic with a cash injection of more than £10m.

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