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We might think we’ve seen it all before – airstrikes, flattened buildings, funerals, inflamed rhetoric on both sides.

But make no mistake, this time is different. And what happens next is hugely important for the region and the world. It is a dangerous moment.

Black Saturday, as the Israelis call it, has changed everything – for now at least. Rightly or wrongly, Israeli officials believe the threat this time may become existential. That fear will determine what they do next.

That may seem over the top. However horrendous and barbaric, the attacks were limited to one small area and Israel is a mighty country with powerful friends.

But what happened that day has undermined the mystique of Israel’s military superiority. Its deterrence is hugely weakened and that could destabilise the region to the point of much wider conflict.

Follow live: Gazans told ‘go south if you want to live’

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Family kidnapped by Hamas

Since its inception, Israel has tried to project strength to survive among neighbours who want to destroy it.

Its forces have prevailed over Hamas in all previous conflicts. In its only war with Hezbollah in 2006, its military was effective enough to deter any provocation by the Lebanese Shia resistance militia since.

But on Saturday, Israeli soldiers were slaughtered in their beds, militants on motorbikes overran the IDF in its bases.

Videos filmed by Hamas seen across this region show Israelis in uniform begging for mercy, or lying dead. An untold number of Israeli soldiers were taken hostage.

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‘We’ve seen a third barrage of rockets coming in’

Hamas transformed itself into an effective guerrilla fighting force and got the better of one of the world’s strongest armies.

The impact of all that is hard to overstate. Far from invincible, Israel’s army had been exposed as vulnerable and in this rough neighbourhood that could be disastrous.

So there is one overriding priority for Israel – to restore the power of its military deterrence. As it moves in on Gaza, everything else will be secondary. Its own rules of engagement have changed.

More Israeli soldiers will die in this war than before, officials have already said. Cabinet ministers are saying the same about Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.

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Warning leaflets dropped in Gaza

Israel’s sacred principles of protecting its own and leaving no one behind will be subordinate to the mission to destroy Hamas. That is a major break from the past but unavoidable, its leaders believe.

Likewise with civilians in Gaza. Israel has in the past taken more precautions than other militaries to avoid unnecessary loss of civilian life, though critics will say not nearly enough.

The military is already warning the scope of its offensive will make it harder this time to avoid collateral damage.

This is Israel’s dilemma: show too much restraint and risk failing to restore its deterrence. Go too far and risk losing the support of allies and inflaming passions among enemies further afield, drawing them in to a far wider war.

Read more:
Gaza ‘on brink of collapse’
‘Highly likely’ British hostages held by Hamas
Britain, France and the deep roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

Unprecedented scenes of suffering in Gaza may prompt Israel’s foes to escalate this conflict. Iran has warned as much.

Its proxy militia, Hezbollah, may already be tempted to exploit Israel’s weakness and awaiting the right moment to strike.

Israel’s concerns are shared by its allies. They know a weakened Israel destabilises the region.

A major war in this region is bad news at the best of times but with one big conflict already under way in Ukraine, another in the Middle East would be extremely dangerous geopolitically, as well as threaten global recession.

So leaders and diplomats are rushing to the region, offering support for Israel while urging caution in private.

America, Britain and others are sending warships and military assets to counter the threat of Hezbollah or Iran, or others getting involved.

As Israel prepares to storm Gaza, the rest of the world is holding its breath.

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Gaza food situation ‘worst it’s ever been’, charity says – as tank attack reportedly kills 12 at camp

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Gaza food situation 'worst it's ever been', charity says - as tank attack reportedly kills 12 at camp

An aid worker in Gaza has told Sky News the food situation in the enclave is “absolutely desperate” and “the worst it’s ever been”.

Her comments to chief presenter Mark Austin come amid fresh outcry over aid restrictions, with the UK joining 24 other countries to urge an immediate end to the war.

It also comes as at least 12 more Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded when tanks shelled a tent encampment in western Gaza City, according to health authorities.

Middle East latest: Key points from UK statement on Gaza

Medics, speaking early on Tuesday, said two shells were fired at tents housing displaced people from tanks positioned north of the Shati camp.

Israel hasn’t yet commented on the reports.

Rachael Cummings, humanitarian director for Save The Children, spoke to Sky News from Deir al Balah, a city where tens of thousands of people have sought refuge during repeated waves of mass displacement.

More on Gaza

She said: “One of my colleagues said to me yesterday, ‘We are all walking together towards death’. And this is the situation now for people in Gaza.

“There is no food for their children, it’s absolutely desperate here.”

Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, July 20, 2025. REUTERS
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Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen. Pic: Reuters

“The markets are empty,” she said. “People may even have cash in their pockets yet they cannot buy bread [or] vegetables.

“My team have said to me, ‘There’s nothing in my house to feed my children, my children are crying all day, every day.”

Israel launched a ground assault on southern and eastern Deir al Balah for the first time on Monday after having issued an evacuation order.

Local medics said at least three people were killed when houses and mosques were hit by tank shelling.

Sources told Reuters news agency that Israel believes some of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas in October 2023 could be in the area.

Smoke rises during Israeli strikes amid the Israeli military operation in Deir Al-Balah.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Smoke rises during strikes amid the Israeli operation in Deir al Balah. Pic: Reuters

Ms Cummings’s remarks came as the UK and 24 other nations issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire.

The statement criticised aid distribution in Gaza, which is being managed by a US and Israel-backed organisation, Gaza Health Foundation (GHF).

Hundreds of people have reportedly been killed while trying to get food in recent weeks, both from GHF and UN convoys.

“The Israeli government’s aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity,” the joint statement said.

The 25 countries also called for the “immediate and unconditional release” of hostages captured by Hamas during the 7 October 2023 attacks.

Lammy promises £40m for Gaza

Foreign Secretary David Lammy has promised £40m for humanitarian assistance in Gaza.

He told MPs: “We are leading diplomatic efforts to show that there must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state involving the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, in the security and governance of the area.

“Hamas can have no role in the governance of Gaza, nor use it as a launchpad for terrorism.”

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Lammy: ‘There must be a viable pathway to a Palestinian state’

Addressing the foreign secretaries’ joint written statement, charity worker Liz Allcock – who works for Medical Aid for Palestinians (MAP) in Gaza – told Sky News: “While we welcome this, there have been statements in the past 21 months and nothing has changed.

“In fact, things have only got worse. And every time we think it can’t get worse, it does.”

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“Without a reversal of the siege, the lack of supplies, the constant bombardment, the forced displacement, the killing, the militarisation of aid, we are going to collapse as a humanitarian response,” she said.

“And this would do a grave injustice to the 2.2 million people we’re trying to serve.

“An immediate and permanent ceasefire, and avenues for accountability in line with international law, is the minimum people here deserve.”

The war in Gaza started in response to Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw about 250 taken hostage.

More than 59,000 Palestinians have since been killed, with more than half being women and children, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.

In recent weeks hundreds of Palestinians have reportedly been killed while waiting for food and aid.

The Israeli military has blamed Hamas militants for fomenting chaos and endangering civilians.

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Trade war: Is August escalation on – or will Trump chicken out?

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Trade war: Is  August escalation on - or will Trump chicken out?

Donald Trump is clearly seething over the term ‘TACO’ (Trump always chickens out) – a phrase that has characterised financial market trading over the past few months.

It suggests that for all the president’s bluster and threats during his on-off trade war to date, he rarely follows through.

When asked by a reporter about TACO in late May, as his “liberation day” escalation remained on pause, he declared it a “nasty” question and said he wanted negotiations.

Money latest: ‘Biggest July house price drop in 20 years’

Mr Trump wants a deal but to effectively bully America’s trading partners into agreeing better terms.

It’s a playbook that has defined his time in the White House and, as things stand, more than 20 nations and territories, including Japan and South Korea, face heightened tariffs of up to 40% on their exports to the US from 1 August.

Financial markets don’t really believe it. Stock markets, for example, are still hovering near or at record levels in both the US and in Europe. The FTSE 100 closed above 9,000 points for the first time on Monday evening. TACO is ingrained in those values.

More on Donald Trump

But are markets in for a shock, especially when it comes to the fight with America’s single largest trading partner, the European Union? It was created, Mr Trump has previously claimed, to “screw” the United States.

It’s fair to say there was great optimism in the EU earlier this month that a deal, similar to that agreed between the US and UK, was looming to avert the worst of a threatened 30% baseline tariff from 1 August.

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Explained: The US-UK trade deal

But the mood music in Brussels changed at the back end of last week and now EU diplomats are even briefing that a broader range of retaliation measures is being considered beyond additional tariffs on US goods.

The seriousness of this fight should not be underestimated.

EU figures show trade in goods and services between the bloc and the US account for almost a third of all global trade, at a value in 2024 alone of €1.68trn (£1.45trn).

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Trump ‘reigniting global trade war’

EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic has warned that a 30% tariff would “practically prohibit” the bloc’s transatlantic trade, according to remarks via diplomats reported by the Reuters news agency.

We’re told that, even if time runs out, a truce could theoretically be agreed soon after 1 August.

Much will depend on the EU’s response.

Does it go down the route taken by the UK and not retaliate, pending the conclusion of talks?

There is growing pressure on Brussels to call Mr Trump’s bluff.

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Trump tariff threats all ‘bluster’

The EU has a package of tariffs on €21bn of US goods ready to go from 6 August. An additional package is yet to be finalised.

France is demanding US services are hit too, with even Germany now saying such an escalation should be considered.

The so-called “anti-coercion” instrument, as it’s known, would also potentially allow the bloc to limit US companies’ access to financial service markets in the EU.

So what happens after 1 August could be even more explosive.

But there is every reason to believe that a tit-for-tat escalation is unlikely, at least for long.

The very reason Donald Trump rowed back on his “liberation day” tariffs in April, allowing 90 days for talks, was likely the dire financial market reaction that followed news of the widespread duties.

You have a president demanding interest rate cuts (at a time when inflation is on the rise due to the impact of tariffs) in a bid to boost flagging economic growth.

Mr Trump says his trade war is all about boosting US manufacturing jobs but, at the end of the day, no powerbase of voters is going to accept a threat to the value of their investments for long.

No big US company will stand by and see its sales suffer.

TACO? It’s a solid bet.

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Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh – at least 19 people dead

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Plane crashes into college campus in Bangladesh - at least 19 people dead

At least 19 people have died after a Bangladesh air force plane crashed into a college campus, the military said.

The aircraft crashed into the campus of Milestone School and College in Uttara, in the northern area of the capital Dhaka, where students were taking tests or attending regular classes.

The pilot was one of the people killed, and, according to the military, 164 were injured in the incident.

The Bangladesh military’s public relations department added that the aircraft was an F-7 BGI, and had taken off at 1.06pm local time before crashing shortly after.

Video shows fire and smoke rising from the crash site, with hundreds looking on.

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The wreckage of an air force training aircraft after it crashed into Milestone College campus, in Dhaka.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pics: Reuters

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.

Bengali-language daily newspaper Prothom Alo said that most of the injured were students with burn injuries.

Firefighters and volunteers work after an air force training aircraft crashed into Milestone College campus, in Dhaka.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pics: Reuters

Citing the duty officer at the fire service control room, Prothom Alo also reported that the plane had crashed on the roof of the college canteen.

Read more from Sky News:
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Six arrests after nearly 250 children poisoned by lead in food

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Rafiqa Taha, a 16-year-old student at the school who was not present at the time of the crash, told the Associated Press that the school has around 2,000 students.

“I was terrified watching videos on TV,” she added. “My God! It’s my school.”

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