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We might think we’ve seen it all before – airstrikes, flattened buildings, funerals, inflamed rhetoric on both sides.

But make no mistake, this time is different. And what happens next is hugely important for the region and the world. It is a dangerous moment.

Black Saturday, as the Israelis call it, has changed everything – for now at least. Rightly or wrongly, Israeli officials believe the threat this time may become existential. That fear will determine what they do next.

That may seem over the top. However horrendous and barbaric, the attacks were limited to one small area and Israel is a mighty country with powerful friends.

But what happened that day has undermined the mystique of Israel’s military superiority. Its deterrence is hugely weakened and that could destabilise the region to the point of much wider conflict.

Follow live: Gazans told ‘go south if you want to live’

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Family kidnapped by Hamas

Since its inception, Israel has tried to project strength to survive among neighbours who want to destroy it.

Its forces have prevailed over Hamas in all previous conflicts. In its only war with Hezbollah in 2006, its military was effective enough to deter any provocation by the Lebanese Shia resistance militia since.

But on Saturday, Israeli soldiers were slaughtered in their beds, militants on motorbikes overran the IDF in its bases.

Videos filmed by Hamas seen across this region show Israelis in uniform begging for mercy, or lying dead. An untold number of Israeli soldiers were taken hostage.

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‘We’ve seen a third barrage of rockets coming in’

Hamas transformed itself into an effective guerrilla fighting force and got the better of one of the world’s strongest armies.

The impact of all that is hard to overstate. Far from invincible, Israel’s army had been exposed as vulnerable and in this rough neighbourhood that could be disastrous.

So there is one overriding priority for Israel – to restore the power of its military deterrence. As it moves in on Gaza, everything else will be secondary. Its own rules of engagement have changed.

More Israeli soldiers will die in this war than before, officials have already said. Cabinet ministers are saying the same about Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.

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Warning leaflets dropped in Gaza

Israel’s sacred principles of protecting its own and leaving no one behind will be subordinate to the mission to destroy Hamas. That is a major break from the past but unavoidable, its leaders believe.

Likewise with civilians in Gaza. Israel has in the past taken more precautions than other militaries to avoid unnecessary loss of civilian life, though critics will say not nearly enough.

The military is already warning the scope of its offensive will make it harder this time to avoid collateral damage.

This is Israel’s dilemma: show too much restraint and risk failing to restore its deterrence. Go too far and risk losing the support of allies and inflaming passions among enemies further afield, drawing them in to a far wider war.

Read more:
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Unprecedented scenes of suffering in Gaza may prompt Israel’s foes to escalate this conflict. Iran has warned as much.

Its proxy militia, Hezbollah, may already be tempted to exploit Israel’s weakness and awaiting the right moment to strike.

Israel’s concerns are shared by its allies. They know a weakened Israel destabilises the region.

A major war in this region is bad news at the best of times but with one big conflict already under way in Ukraine, another in the Middle East would be extremely dangerous geopolitically, as well as threaten global recession.

So leaders and diplomats are rushing to the region, offering support for Israel while urging caution in private.

America, Britain and others are sending warships and military assets to counter the threat of Hezbollah or Iran, or others getting involved.

As Israel prepares to storm Gaza, the rest of the world is holding its breath.

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Ukraine war: Russia launches drone strike on Kyiv – as commander ‘sacked for lying about war progress’

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Ukraine war: Russia launches drone strike on Kyiv - as commander 'sacked for lying about war progress'

Russia launched a large drone attack on Kyiv overnight, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy warning the attack shows his capital needs better air defences.

Ukraine’s air defence units shot down 50 of 73 Russian drones launched, with no immediate reports of damage or injuries as a result of the attacks.

Russia has used more than 800 guided aerial bombs and around 460 attack drones in the past week.

Warning that Ukraine needs to improve its air defences, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “An air alert has been sounded almost daily across Ukraine this week”.

“Ukraine is not a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine is a sovereign and independent state.

“But Russia still continues its efforts to kill our people, spread fear and panic, and weaken us.”

Russia did not comment on the attack.

More on Russia

It comes as Russian media reported that Colonel General Gennady Anashkin, the commander of the country’s southern military district, had been removed from his role over allegedly providing misleading reports about his troops’ progress.

While Russian forces have advanced at the fastest rate in Ukraine since the start of the invasion, forces have been much slower around Siversk and the eastern region of Donetsk.

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Russian war bloggers have long complained that units there are poorly supported and thrown into deadly battles for little tactical gain.

Russia’s ministry of defence has not commented on the reports.

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Russian forces capture ‘former British soldier’ fighting for Ukraine – reports

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Russian forces capture 'former British soldier' fighting for Ukraine - reports

Russian forces have reportedly captured a British man while he was fighting for Ukraine.

In a widely circulated video posted on Sunday, the man says his name is James Scott Rhys Anderson, aged 22.

He says he is a former British Army soldier who signed up to fight for Ukraine’s International Legion after his job.

He is dressed in army fatigues and speaks with an English accent as he says to camera: “I was in the British Army before, from 2019 to 2023, 22 Signal Regiment.”

He tells the camera he was “just a private”, “a signalman” in “One Signal Brigade, 22 Signal Regiment, 252 Squadron”.

“When I left… got fired from my job, I applied on the International Legion webpage. I had just lost everything. I just lost my job,” he said.

“My dad was away in prison, I see it on the TV,” he added, shaking his head. “It was a stupid idea.”

In a second video, he is shown with his hands tied and at one point, with tape over his eyes.

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He describes how he had travelled to Ukraine from Britain, saying: “I flew to Krakow, Poland, from London Luton. Bus from there to Medyka in Poland, on the Ukraine border.”

Russian state news agency Tass reported that a military source said a “UK mercenary” had been “taken prisoner in the Kursk area” of Russia.

The UK Foreign Office said it was “supporting the family of a British man following reports of his detention”.

The Ministry of Defence has declined to comment at this stage.

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE – as Israeli PM says he was murdered in ‘antisemitic terror incident’

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Body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan found in UAE - as Israeli PM says he was murdered in 'antisemitic terror incident'

The body of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been found, Israel has said.

Zvi Kogan, the Chabad representative in the UAE, went missing on Thursday.

A statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s office on Sunday said the 28-year-old rabbi was murdered, calling it a “heinous antisemitic terror incident”.

“The state of Israel will act with all means to seek justice with the criminals responsible for his death,” it said.

On Saturday, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad said it was investigating the disappearance as suspicions arose that he had been kidnapped.

The Emirati government gave no immediate acknowledgment that Mr Kogan had been found dead. Its interior ministry has described the rabbi as being “missing and out of contact”.

“Specialised authorities immediately began search and investigation operations upon receiving the report,” the interior ministry said.

Mr Kogan lived in the UAE with his wife Rivky, who is a US citizen. He ran a Kosher grocery store in Dubai, which has been the target of online protests by pro-Palestinian supporters.

The Chabad Lubavitch movement, a prominent and highly observant branch of Orthodox Judaism, said Mr Kogan was last seen in Dubai.

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Israeli authorities reissued their recommendation against all non-essential travel to the UAE and said visitors currently there should minimise movement and remain in secure areas.

The rabbi’s disappearance comes as Iran has threatened to retaliate against Israel after the two countries traded fire in October.

While the Israeli statement on Mr Kogan did not mention Iran, Iranian intelligence services have previously carried out kidnappings in the UAE.

The UAE diplomatically recognised Israel in 2020. Since then, synagogues and businesses catering to kosher diners have been set up for the burgeoning Jewish community but the unrest in the Middle East has sparked deep anger in the country.

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