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We might think we’ve seen it all before – airstrikes, flattened buildings, funerals, inflamed rhetoric on both sides.

But make no mistake, this time is different. And what happens next is hugely important for the region and the world. It is a dangerous moment.

Black Saturday, as the Israelis call it, has changed everything – for now at least. Rightly or wrongly, Israeli officials believe the threat this time may become existential. That fear will determine what they do next.

That may seem over the top. However horrendous and barbaric, the attacks were limited to one small area and Israel is a mighty country with powerful friends.

But what happened that day has undermined the mystique of Israel’s military superiority. Its deterrence is hugely weakened and that could destabilise the region to the point of much wider conflict.

Follow live: Gazans told ‘go south if you want to live’

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Family kidnapped by Hamas

Since its inception, Israel has tried to project strength to survive among neighbours who want to destroy it.

Its forces have prevailed over Hamas in all previous conflicts. In its only war with Hezbollah in 2006, its military was effective enough to deter any provocation by the Lebanese Shia resistance militia since.

But on Saturday, Israeli soldiers were slaughtered in their beds, militants on motorbikes overran the IDF in its bases.

Videos filmed by Hamas seen across this region show Israelis in uniform begging for mercy, or lying dead. An untold number of Israeli soldiers were taken hostage.

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‘We’ve seen a third barrage of rockets coming in’

Hamas transformed itself into an effective guerrilla fighting force and got the better of one of the world’s strongest armies.

The impact of all that is hard to overstate. Far from invincible, Israel’s army had been exposed as vulnerable and in this rough neighbourhood that could be disastrous.

So there is one overriding priority for Israel – to restore the power of its military deterrence. As it moves in on Gaza, everything else will be secondary. Its own rules of engagement have changed.

More Israeli soldiers will die in this war than before, officials have already said. Cabinet ministers are saying the same about Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.

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Warning leaflets dropped in Gaza

Israel’s sacred principles of protecting its own and leaving no one behind will be subordinate to the mission to destroy Hamas. That is a major break from the past but unavoidable, its leaders believe.

Likewise with civilians in Gaza. Israel has in the past taken more precautions than other militaries to avoid unnecessary loss of civilian life, though critics will say not nearly enough.

The military is already warning the scope of its offensive will make it harder this time to avoid collateral damage.

This is Israel’s dilemma: show too much restraint and risk failing to restore its deterrence. Go too far and risk losing the support of allies and inflaming passions among enemies further afield, drawing them in to a far wider war.

Read more:
Gaza ‘on brink of collapse’
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Unprecedented scenes of suffering in Gaza may prompt Israel’s foes to escalate this conflict. Iran has warned as much.

Its proxy militia, Hezbollah, may already be tempted to exploit Israel’s weakness and awaiting the right moment to strike.

Israel’s concerns are shared by its allies. They know a weakened Israel destabilises the region.

A major war in this region is bad news at the best of times but with one big conflict already under way in Ukraine, another in the Middle East would be extremely dangerous geopolitically, as well as threaten global recession.

So leaders and diplomats are rushing to the region, offering support for Israel while urging caution in private.

America, Britain and others are sending warships and military assets to counter the threat of Hezbollah or Iran, or others getting involved.

As Israel prepares to storm Gaza, the rest of the world is holding its breath.

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Landmark moment as the return of Trump stuns UK into action on defence

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Landmark moment as the return of Trump stuns UK into action on defence

This is the moment the government finally woke up to the enormity of the threat faced by the UK and the inability of its hollowed-out armed forces to cope.

But make no mistake, today’s decision to increase military spending is not just about increasing the number of troops, warships and fighter jets or even ensuring they can use the latest drones, satellites or artificial intelligence breakthroughs.

This is an emergency that requires the entire nation to take responsibility for – or at least an interest in – the defence of the nation and the importance of being able to deter threats.

Politics latest: PM makes defence commitment

Sir Keir Starmer signalled this fundamental shift in priorities when he told parliament: “We must change our national security posture because a generational challenge requires a generational response that will demand some extremely difficult and painful choices.”

He continued: “And through those choices, as hard as they are, we must also seek unity. A whole society effort that will reach into the lives, the industries, and the homes of the British people.”

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Starmer announces defence spending hike

Such a proposal is not something new.

The UK has a long history of being prepared for war.

The entirety of the Cold War era was framed around ensuring the UK had enough troops and reservists to fight a sustained conflict, supported by a vast industrial base to produce weapons and a society that was intrinsically resilient, with the ability to sustain itself with emergency food rations, power supplies and an understanding of the need to be prepared to respond in an emergency.

Back then, the threat was war – maybe even nuclear annihilation – with the Soviet Union.

Today the threat is just as stark but also far more complex.

Russia is the immediate danger. But China poses a long-term challenge, while Iran and North Korea are also menacing adversaries.

Most fundamentally though is the change in the UK’s ability to rely squarely on its strongest ally, the United States.

Donald Trump, with his resentment of shouldering the responsibility for European security, has made clear the rest of the transatlantic NATO alliance must take much more of the share of defending themselves.

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‘The world is becoming more dangerous’

He has also signalled that he may not even be willing to deploy America’s powerful military to defend every single member state – singling out those who pay far too little on their defences.

He has a point when it comes to Europe freeloading on the might of the United States for too long.

But the suggestion that European allies can no longer automatically rely on their American partner to come to their aid is enough to call into question the value of Article 5 of the NATO Alliance, which states an attack on one is an attack on all.

When it comes to deterring foes, there must be no such uncertainty between friends.

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Soldiers from 5 Scots during training at West Freugh Airfield as they take part in Exercise Joint Warrior, which sees warships, submarines and aircraft take to the west coast of Scotland for a two-week training exercise. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Picture date, Monday April 16, 2012. The exercise is held twice a year to prepare forces from the UK, US, Denmark, Norway, France, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands for events and active service. See PA story DEFENCE Exercise. Photo credit should read:
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File pic: PA

It is why countries across Europe are being urged by the new head of NATO to rapidly ramp up defence spending and adopt what NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called a “war mindset”.

The UK, who along with France are the only two NATO powers in Europe to possess nuclear weapons, has a bigger responsibility than most to heed that call.

Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 was not a sufficient enough alarm bell.

Eve Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022 failed to shake the UK and most of the rest of Europe from their slumber.

Instead, it seems the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with all the unpredictability that he brings, is the final shock that has stunned the UK into action.

Of course, defence insiders know that increasing spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 is not soon enough.

But this – coupled with Sir Keir’s language about the need for a “generational response” – is a landmark moment.

The beginning of the correction of a strategic mistake made by Labour and Conservative governments over years to take a “holiday from history” and fail to find credible, capable armed forces and ensure society understands the importance of defence and the ability to deter.

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Mystery illness kills more than 50 people in Democratic Republic of Congo

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Mystery illness kills more than 50 people in Democratic Republic of Congo

An unknown disease has killed more than 50 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), according to doctors.

The World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Africa office said the first outbreak was discovered in the town of Boloko, in the northwest of the country.

It is reported that three children ate a bat and died following haemorrhagic fever symptoms.

The interval between the onset of symptoms and death has been 48 hours in the majority of cases.

“That’s what’s really worrying,” Serge Ngalebato, medical director of Bikoro Hospital, a regional monitoring centre, told the news agency, The Associated Press.

Map showing the location of an unknown illness which has killed over 50 people in part of Congo
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An outbreak was reported in Boloko in January followed by more cases in Bomate in February

The outbreak began on 21 January and 419 cases have been recorded including 53 deaths.

There was a second outbreak of the mystery illness in the town of Bomate on 9 February.

Samples from 13 cases have been sent for testing to the National Institute for Biomedical Research in the DRC’s capital, Kinshasa, the WHO said.

All samples have been negative for Ebola or other common haemorrhagic fever diseases like Marburg. Some tested positive for malaria.

Last year, another mystery flu-like illness which killed dozens of people in another part of Congo was considered likely to be malaria.

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Scientists have had concerns for a long time about diseases jumping from animals to humans in places where wild animals are eaten.

The number of these types of outbreaks in Africa has surged by more than 60% in the last decade, the WHO said in 2022.

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‘Misunderstanding’ in arrest of British couple in Afghanistan, Taliban says

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'Misunderstanding' in arrest of British couple in Afghanistan, Taliban says

The arrest of a British couple in Afghanistan was over a “misunderstanding”, the Taliban has said.

Peter Reynolds, 79, and his wife Barbie, 75, were detained by the Taliban’s interior ministry on 1 February.

The reason for their arrests was immediately unknown.

But the Taliban said on Tuesday that the couple were detained due to a “misunderstanding” that they had fake Afghan passports.

The four adult children of the couple said last week that their parents were married in Kabul in 1970 and have lived in Afghanistan for 18 years – remaining after the withdrawal of Western troops and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

The couple runs an organisation named Rebuild, which provides education and training programmes for businesses, government agencies, educational organisations and nongovernmental groups.

Mr and Mrs Reynolds, who are also Afghan citizens, allegedly texted their children after their arrests saying they did not want Western authorities to get involved.

Read more from Sky News:
NHS England chief to step down
Mystery illness kills more than 50 people

In a letter to the Taliban, their children wrote: “Our parents have consistently expressed their commitment to Afghanistan, stating that they would rather sacrifice their lives than become part of ransom negotiations or be traded.

“We trust that this is not your intention, as we are instructed to respect their wishes to remain with you.”

The Taliban have released no further details nor confirmed if the couple have now been released.

On Monday, the BBC reported the Taliban as saying they would “endeavour” to release the couple “as soon as possible”.

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