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We might think we’ve seen it all before – airstrikes, flattened buildings, funerals, inflamed rhetoric on both sides.

But make no mistake, this time is different. And what happens next is hugely important for the region and the world. It is a dangerous moment.

Black Saturday, as the Israelis call it, has changed everything – for now at least. Rightly or wrongly, Israeli officials believe the threat this time may become existential. That fear will determine what they do next.

That may seem over the top. However horrendous and barbaric, the attacks were limited to one small area and Israel is a mighty country with powerful friends.

But what happened that day has undermined the mystique of Israel’s military superiority. Its deterrence is hugely weakened and that could destabilise the region to the point of much wider conflict.

Follow live: Gazans told ‘go south if you want to live’

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Family kidnapped by Hamas

Since its inception, Israel has tried to project strength to survive among neighbours who want to destroy it.

Its forces have prevailed over Hamas in all previous conflicts. In its only war with Hezbollah in 2006, its military was effective enough to deter any provocation by the Lebanese Shia resistance militia since.

But on Saturday, Israeli soldiers were slaughtered in their beds, militants on motorbikes overran the IDF in its bases.

Videos filmed by Hamas seen across this region show Israelis in uniform begging for mercy, or lying dead. An untold number of Israeli soldiers were taken hostage.

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‘We’ve seen a third barrage of rockets coming in’

Hamas transformed itself into an effective guerrilla fighting force and got the better of one of the world’s strongest armies.

The impact of all that is hard to overstate. Far from invincible, Israel’s army had been exposed as vulnerable and in this rough neighbourhood that could be disastrous.

So there is one overriding priority for Israel – to restore the power of its military deterrence. As it moves in on Gaza, everything else will be secondary. Its own rules of engagement have changed.

More Israeli soldiers will die in this war than before, officials have already said. Cabinet ministers are saying the same about Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.

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Warning leaflets dropped in Gaza

Israel’s sacred principles of protecting its own and leaving no one behind will be subordinate to the mission to destroy Hamas. That is a major break from the past but unavoidable, its leaders believe.

Likewise with civilians in Gaza. Israel has in the past taken more precautions than other militaries to avoid unnecessary loss of civilian life, though critics will say not nearly enough.

The military is already warning the scope of its offensive will make it harder this time to avoid collateral damage.

This is Israel’s dilemma: show too much restraint and risk failing to restore its deterrence. Go too far and risk losing the support of allies and inflaming passions among enemies further afield, drawing them in to a far wider war.

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Unprecedented scenes of suffering in Gaza may prompt Israel’s foes to escalate this conflict. Iran has warned as much.

Its proxy militia, Hezbollah, may already be tempted to exploit Israel’s weakness and awaiting the right moment to strike.

Israel’s concerns are shared by its allies. They know a weakened Israel destabilises the region.

A major war in this region is bad news at the best of times but with one big conflict already under way in Ukraine, another in the Middle East would be extremely dangerous geopolitically, as well as threaten global recession.

So leaders and diplomats are rushing to the region, offering support for Israel while urging caution in private.

America, Britain and others are sending warships and military assets to counter the threat of Hezbollah or Iran, or others getting involved.

As Israel prepares to storm Gaza, the rest of the world is holding its breath.

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Women’s Euros: Extreme heat warnings in place as tournament kicks off

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Women's Euros: Extreme heat warnings in place as tournament kicks off

The Women’s Euros begin in Switzerland today – with extreme heat warnings in place.

Security measures have had to be relaxed by UEFA for the opening matches so fans can bring in water bottles.

Temperatures could be about 30C (86F) when the Swiss hosts open their campaign against Norway in Basel this evening.

Players have already seen the impact of heatwaves this summer at the men’s Club World Cup in the US.

Players take a drink during a training session of Spain soccer team at the Euro 2025, in Lausanne, Switzerland Tuesday, July 1, 2025 Pic: AP
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The Spain squad pauses for refreshments during a training session. Pic: AP

It is raising new concerns in the global players’ union about whether the stars of the sport are being protected in hot and humid conditions.

FIFPRO has asked FIFA to allow cooling breaks every 15 minutes rather than just in the 30th minute of each half.

There’s also a request for half-time to be extended from 15 to 20 minutes to help lower the core temperature of players.

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FIFPRO’s medical director, Dr Vincent Gouttebarge, said: “There are some very challenging weather conditions that we anticipated a couple of weeks ago already, that was already communicated to FIFA.

“And I think the past few weeks were confirmation of all worries that the heat conditions will play a negative role for the performance and the health of the players.”

Football has seemed focused on players and fans baking in the Middle East – but scorching summers in Europe and the US are becoming increasingly problematic for sport.

Chloe Kelly celebrates with Beth Mead, right, after scoring her side's sixth goal at Wembley Stadium, in London, Friday, May 30, 2025. AP
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England are the tournament’s defending champions. Pic: AP

While climate change is a factor, the issue is not new and at the 1994 World Cup, players were steaming as temperatures rose in the US.

There is now more awareness of the need for mitigation measures among players and their international union.

FIFPRO feels football officials weren’t responsive when it asked for kick-off times to be moved from the fierce afternoon heat in the US for the first 32-team Club World Cup.

FIFA has to balance the needs of fans and broadcasters with welfare, with no desire to load all the matches in the same evening time slots.

Electric storms have also seen six games stopped, including a two-hour pause during a Chelsea game at the weekend.

This is the dress rehearsal for the World Cup next summer, which is mostly in the US.

Players are also feeling the heat at the Club World Cup in the US. Pic: AP
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Players are also feeling the heat at the Club World Cup. Pic: AP

The use of more indoor, air conditioned stadiums should help.

There is no prospect of moving the World Cup to winter, as Qatar had to do in 2022.

And looking further ahead to this time in 2030, there will be World Cup matches in Spain, Portugal and Morocco. The temperatures this week have been hitting 40C (104F) in some host cities.

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FIFA said in a statement to Sky News: “Heat conditions are a serious topic that affect football globally.

“At the FCWC some significant and progressive measures are being taken to protect the players from the heat. For instance, cooling breaks were implemented in 31 out of 54 matches so far.

“Discussions on how to deal with heat conditions need to take place collectively and FIFA stands ready to facilitate this dialogue, including through the Task Force on Player Welfare, and to receive constructive input from all stakeholders on how to further enhance heat management.

“In all of this, the protection of players must be at the centre.”

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Trump’s USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

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Trump's USAID cuts could lead to 14 million deaths, report warns

Around 14 million people could die across the world over the next five years because of cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID), researchers have warned.

Children under five are expected to make up around a third (4.5 million) of the mortalities, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Estimates showed that “unless the abrupt funding cuts announced and implemented in the first half of 2025 are reversed, a staggering number of avoidable deaths could occur by 2030”.

“Beyond causing millions of avoidable deaths – particularly among the most vulnerable – these cuts risk reversing decades of progress in health and socioeconomic development in LMICs [low and middle-income countries],” the report said.

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March: ‘We are going to lose children’: Fears over USAID cuts in Kenya

USAID programmes have prevented the deaths of more than 91 million people, around a third of them among children, the study suggests.

The agency’s work has been linked to a 65% fall in deaths from HIV/AIDS, or 25.5 million people.

Eight million deaths from malaria, more than half the total, around 11 million from diarrheal diseases and nearly five million from tuberculosis (TB), have also been prevented.

USAID has been vital in improving global health, “especially in LMICs, particularly African nations,” according to the report.

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Established in 1961, the agency was tasked with providing humanitarian assistance and helping economic growth in developing countries, especially those deemed strategic to Washington.

But the Trump administration has made little secret of its antipathy towards the agency, which became an early victim of cuts carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – formerly led by Elon Musk – in what the US government said was part of a broader plan to remove wasteful spending.

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What is USAID?

In March, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said more than 80% of USAID schemes had been closed following a six-week review, leaving around 1,000 active.

The US is the world’s largest humanitarian aid donor, providing around $61bn (£44bn) in foreign assistance last year, according to government data, or at least 38% of the total, and USAID is the world’s leading donor for humanitarian and development aid, the report said.

Between 2017 and 2020, the agency responded to more than 240 natural disasters and crises worldwide – and in 2016 it sent food assistance to more than 53 million people across 47 countries.

The study assessed all-age and all-cause mortality rates in 133 countries and territories, including all those classified as low and middle-income, supported by USAID from 2001 to 2021.

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

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Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended amid outrage over leaked phone call

Thailand’s prime minister has been suspended after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.

An ethics investigation into Paetongtarn Shinawatra is under way and she could end up being dismissed.

The country’s constitutional court took up a petition from 36 senators, who claimed dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards, and voted 7 to 2 to suspend her.

Protesters gathered in Bangkok at the weekend. Pic: Reuters
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Protesters gathered in Bangkok at the weekend. Pic: Reuters

The prime minister’s call with Cambodia’s former leader, Hun Sen, sparked public protests after she tried to appease him and criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.

Ms Shinawatra was trying to defuse mounting tensions at the border – which in May resulted in the death of one Cambodian soldier.

Thousands of conservative, nationalist protesters held a demo in Bangkok on Saturday to urge her to step down.

Her party is clinging on to power after another group withdrew from their alliance a few weeks ago over the phone call. Calls for a no-confidence vote are likely.

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Deputy prime minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over temporarily while the court looks into the case.

The 38-year-old prime minister – Thailand‘s youngest ever leader – has 15 days to respond to the probe. She has apologised and said her approach in the call was a negotiating tactic.

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The popularity of her government has slumped recently, with an opinion poll showing an approval rating of 9.2%, down from 30.9% in March.

Ms Shinawatra comes from a wealthy dynasty synonymous with Thai politics.

Her father Thaksin Shinawatra – a former Manchester City owner – and aunt Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister before her – in the early to mid 2000s – and their time in office also ended ignominiously amid corruption charges and military coups.

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