US inflation rose 3.7% in September, more than economists expected and still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, as the central bank weighs whether to hike interest rates again by year’s end.
The reading for the Consumer Price Index a closely watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services matches the reading in August, and is slightly above the 3.6% advance that economists expected, according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday.
On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, partly because of lower pressure from energy prices.
However, core CPI a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices and serves as a closely watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends held steady at 0.3% month to month and rose 4.1% from a year ago, in line with expectations.
Though September’s CPI is also a cooldown from inflation’s 9.1% peak in June 2022, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Stock futures dropped ahead of the market opening as traders increased their bets of another rate hike to around 50%, up from 30% earlier this week.
“The bigger picture is that the trend is still quite encouraging, but the fight continues,” said Olu Sonola, head of US regional economics at Fitch Ratings in New York. “They [Fed officials] may now want to extend the pause to December, given the recent increase in long-term rates.”
The gasoline index’s 2.1% advance was also a large contributor to the CPI, the data showed, though the federal agency said shelter’s 0.2% increase accounted for over half of the increase.
Gasoline experienced an eye-watering 10.6% increase last month, when AAA figures showed that the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.85.
As of Thursday, a gallon of gas in the US averages $3.65, according to AAA.
While many investors had been willing to look past the volatile energy numbers, a surprisingly resilient labor market has some worried that inflation could be more stubborn.
September’s employment report revealed that the US economy added a whopping 336,000 jobs last month — an unexpected surge that contradicts the notion the Fed may tamp down its aggressive tightening regime.
The blowout number was nearly double the 170,000 jobs economists had expected, and also sharply higher than an upwardly revised 227,000 jobs added in August, according to fresh data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week.
The news sent yields on US Treasury bonds to their highest levels in 16 years and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the red for 2023.
Since inflation hit a four-decade peak last summer, the central bank has worked to bring the stubborn figure down by hiking rates another 25 basis points to a 22-year high in August in hopes of an economic slowdown.
The benchmark federal funds rate currently sits between 5.25% and 5.5%. Last month, Fed officials unanimously decided to hold the record-high rate steady for the second time in six policy meetings so far this year.
But thanks to a strong labor market, the US economy has avoided a downturn, and even the Fed has said its no longer predicting the economy will slip into a recession by the end of the year.
“We must wait for more data to see if this is just a blip or if there is something more fundamental driving the increase such as higher rent increases in larger cities offsetting softer increases in smaller cities,” said US Bank of America Securities economist Stephen Juneau.
“When deciding whether to raise rates one last time this year, the FOMC will be asking whether inflation needs another nudge or if its getting to 2% on its own. Its increasingly looking like the latter,” NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter told The Post.
“The Fed, astheyreall too happy to remind us, is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said central bankers will be taking a data-dependent approach moving forward, leaving more interest rate hikes before years end up in the air.
Markets were spooked ahead of the jobs report, falling more than 1% when the Labor Department released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, which showed job openings increased to 9.61 million in August up from 8.9 million in July.
The US government redesignated Garantex on Thursday to its list of sanctioned entities, along with its successor, Grinex, but TRM Labs suggests it may be ineffective.
Since last year’s general election, Sir Mel Stride has become a familiar face for those of us who like our politics.
During the campaign, he regularly found himself on breakfast TV and radio. So much so, Sir Mel was referred to as the “minister for the morning round” by some of our industry colleagues.
By our count, he was on Sky News Breakfast at least 10 times during the campaign’s 43 days.
Following the election, and losing the Conservative leadership race to Kemi Badenoch, Sir Mel now puts questions to Rachel Reeves as shadow chancellor.
Still seen as a safe pair of hands, Sir Mel’s penchant for doing the “morning round” hasn’t slowed down either, making regular appearances on breakfast TV and radio.
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Luckily, he found some time between all that to sit down for an interview with Sky’s Beth Rigby for the Electoral Dysfunction podcast. He spoke about his transition to Opposition, taking on Reform, and the most controversial topic in Westminster – lunch.
Here’s what we learned:
1. Opposition isn’t ‘awful’ – but it is like ‘warfare’
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‘I think people will see through Reform’s populism’
Before the election, Sir Mel served as work and pensions secretary. Shifting to the Opposition was not “awful”, despite losing the muscle of the civil service.
“But it is like guerrilla warfare,” he said.
“You suddenly lose all the trappings of government. Somebody once said to me, ‘when you get in the back of a car and you sit down and it doesn’t go anywhere, that’s when you realise you’re no longer a minister’.
“So it is that sort of sense of being looked after that disappears.”
There’s also a smaller team of Conservatives in the Commons. Before the election, Rishi Sunak had 343 MPs behind him.
Ms Badenoch currently only has 119.
“When you’re down to 120 MPs – and some set piece events, there might be only a fraction of those people there – it’s much quieter.
“What I actually often do is I can be quite provocative of the Opposition to get them going, because then at least you get something to feed off. Sometimes I do that to, just get the energy in the chamber.”
2. Being at the despatch box on big days can be ‘tricky’ – but he has a ‘secret’
You may remember Sir Mel’s lively response to Rachel Reeves’s spring statement in March. He revealed that, on those big political days, he isn’t told what the chancellor will say until about half an hour before it’s said in the Commons.
“It does give you and your team literally 10 or 15 minutes to… work out what the main things are,” he said.
However, he tells Electoral Dysfunction that you do have to be able to think on your feet in that scenario.
He said: “You are thinking about ‘what are the attack lines I’m going to use?’… and amend what you’re going to do.”
He added that he doesn’t get nervous. That might have to do with Sir Mel having been president of the Oxford Union debating society “many, many years ago”.
“Now the secret’s out. The secret is out Beth, and you’re the first to have gleaned that secret from me,” he said.
To be fair, it is on his website.
3. He’s not a huge fan of Reform
Image: Nigel Farage
As the Conservatives battle with Reform for the right, Sir Mel didn’t have many positive words for Nigel Farage’s party.
“With Reform… these are populists, who peddle fantasy economics,” he said.
“‘Take everybody out of income tax up to £20,000 costs about £80bn according to the IFS [Institute For Fiscal Studies].”
The IFS has said it needed “more detail” to exactly cost Reform’s proposal, but “it could easily be in the range of £50 to £80bn a year”.
“I think ultimately,” Sir Mel says, “people will see through a lot of the populism that Reform stands for.”
He added that he believed that Reform’s 2024 manifesto, was, economically, “a work of fiction”.
“I mean, it’s quite dangerous, actually. I think if they’d been elected… the economy would have gone into a very bad place,” he said.
4. His ideal lunch? A cheese and ham toastie
Image: Ms Badenoch and Sir Mel see eye-to-eye on many things – lunch isn’t one of them. Pic: PA
Sir Mel also addressed the most pressing issue of all – lunch.
If you’re unaware, this has proven a controversial subject in Westminster. Ms Badenoch told The Spectator in December she was “not a sandwich person… lunch is for wimps”.
In March, however, Ms Reeves gave a rebuttal to Electoral Dysfunction, revealing she whips up a cheddar sandwich in 11 Downing Street when she can.
Sir Mel falls more in line with his opposite number than his leader.
“I’ve always liked a sandwich, particularly a toasted sandwich,” he said.
“I’d go with the Cadillac, the Rolls Royce of sandwiches, a ham and cheese.”
Sir Mel has previously, however, been partial to some more peculiar fillings.
“Do you remember those Breville toastie makers? When I went to university, I had one of those, or whatever the equivalent was,” he said.
“You could put baked beans in, eggs in, and all sorts of things.
“It was fantastic.”
To each, their own.
Electoral Dysfunction unites political powerhouses Beth Rigby, Ruth Davidson, and Harriet Harman to cut through the spin, and explain to you what’s really going on in Westminster and beyond.
Want to leave a question for Beth, Ruth, and Harriet?