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US inflation rose 3.7% in September, more than economists expected and still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, as the central bank weighs whether to hike interest rates again by year’s end.

The reading for the Consumer Price Index a closely watched measure of inflation that tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services matches the reading in August, and is slightly above the 3.6% advance that economists expected, according to data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday.

On a monthly basis, inflation slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, partly because of lower pressure from energy prices.

However, core CPI a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices and serves as a closely watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends held steady at 0.3% month to month and rose 4.1% from a year ago, in line with expectations.

Though September’s CPI is also a cooldown from inflation’s 9.1% peak in June 2022, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Stock futures dropped ahead of the market opening as traders increased their bets of another rate hike to around 50%, up from 30% earlier this week.

“The bigger picture is that the trend is still quite encouraging, but the fight continues,” said Olu Sonola, head of US regional economics at Fitch Ratings in New York. “They [Fed officials] may now want to extend the pause to December, given the recent increase in long-term rates.”

The gasoline index’s 2.1% advance was also a large contributor to the CPI, the data showed, though the federal agency said shelter’s 0.2% increase accounted for over half of the increase.

Gasoline experienced an eye-watering 10.6% increase last month, when AAA figures showed that the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.85.

As of Thursday, a gallon of gas in the US averages $3.65, according to AAA.

While many investors had been willing to look past the volatile energy numbers, a surprisingly resilient labor market has some worried that inflation could be more stubborn.

September’s employment report revealed that the US economy added a whopping 336,000 jobs last month — an unexpected surge that contradicts the notion the Fed may tamp down its aggressive tightening regime.

The blowout number was nearly double the 170,000 jobs economists had expected, and also sharply higher than an upwardly revised 227,000 jobs added in August, according to fresh data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week.

The news sent yields on US Treasury bonds to their highest levels in 16 years and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the red for 2023.

Since inflation hit a four-decade peak last summer, the central bank has worked to bring the stubborn figure down by hiking rates another 25 basis points to a 22-year high in August in hopes of an economic slowdown.

The benchmark federal funds rate currently sits between 5.25% and 5.5%. Last month, Fed officials unanimously decided to hold the record-high rate steady for the second time in six policy meetings so far this year.

But thanks to a strong labor market, the US economy has avoided a downturn, and even the Fed has said its no longer predicting the economy will slip into a recession by the end of the year.

“We must wait for more data to see if this is just a blip or if there is something more fundamental driving the increase such as higher rent increases in larger cities offsetting softer increases in smaller cities,” said US Bank of America Securities economist Stephen Juneau.

“When deciding whether to raise rates one last time this year, the FOMC will be asking whether inflation needs another nudge or if its getting to 2% on its own. Its increasingly looking like the latter,” NerdWallet data analyst Elizabeth Renter told The Post.

“The Fed, astheyreall too happy to remind us, is laser focused on getting inflation down to 2%.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said central bankers will be taking a data-dependent approach moving forward, leaving more interest rate hikes before years end up in the air.

Markets were spooked ahead of the jobs report, falling more than 1% when the Labor Department released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, which showed job openings increased to 9.61 million in August up from 8.9 million in July.

With Post wires.

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Business

Magnum debut suffers a chill as Ben & Jerry’s row lingers

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Magnum debut suffers a chill as Ben & Jerry's row lingers

Shares in The Magnum Ice Cream Company (TMICC) have fallen slightly on debut after the completion of its spin-off from Unilever amid a continuing civil war with one of its best-known brands.

Shares in the Netherlands-based company are trading for the first time following the demerger.

It creates the world’s biggest ice cream company, controlling around one fifth of the global market.

Primary Magnum shares, in Amsterdam, opened at €12.20 – down on the €12.80 reference price set by the EuroNext exchange, though they later settled just above that level, implying a market value of €7.9bn – just below £7bn.

The company is also listed in London and New York.

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Unilever stock was down 3.1% on the FTSE 100 in the wake of the spin off.

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The demerger allows London-headquartered Unilever to concentrate on its wider stable of consumer brands, including Marmite, Dove soap and Domestos.

The decision to hive off the ice cream division, made in early 2024, gives a greater focus on a market that is tipped to grow by up to 4% each year until 2029.

Ben & Jerry's accounts for a greater volume of group revenue now under TMICC. Pic: Reuters
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Ben & Jerry’s accounts for a greater volume of group revenue now under TMICC. Pic: Reuters

But it has been dogged by a long-running spat with the co-founders of Ben & Jerry’s, which now falls under the TMICC umbrella and accounts for 14% of group revenue.

Unilever bought the US brand in 2000, but the relationship has been sour since, despite the creation of an independent board at that time aimed at protecting the brand’s social mission.

The most high-profile spat came in 2021 when Ben & Jerry’s took the decision not to sell ice cream in Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories on the grounds that sales would be “inconsistent” with its values.

Unilever responded by selling the business to its licensee in Israel.

A series of rows have followed akin to a tug of war, with Magnum refusing repeated demands by the co-founders of Ben & Jerry’s to sell the brand back.

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Sept: ‘Free Ben & Jerry’s’

Magnum and Unilever argue its mission has strayed beyond what was acceptable back in 2000, with the brand evolving into one-sided advocacy on polarising topics that risk reputational and business damage.

TMICC is currently trying to remove the chair of Ben & Jerry’s independent board.

It said last month that Anuradha Mittal “no longer meets the criteria” to serve after internal investigations.

An audit of the separate Ben & Jerry’s Foundation, where she is also a trustee, found deficiencies in financial controls and governance. Magnum said the charitable arm risked having funding removed unless the alleged problems were addressed.

The Reuters news agency has since reported that Ms Mittal has no plans to quit her roles, and accused Magnum of attempts to “discredit” her and undermine the authority of the independent board.

Magnum boss Peter ter Kulve said on Monday: “Today is a proud milestone for everyone associated with TMICC. We became the global leader in ice cream as part of the Unilever family. Now, as an independent listed company, we will be more agile, more focused, and more ambitious than ever.”

Commenting on the demerger, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Aarin Chiekrie said: “TMICC is already free cash flow positive, and profitable in its own right. The balance sheet is in decent shape, but dividends are off the cards until 2027 as the group finds its footing as a standalone business.

“That could cause some downward pressure on the share price in the near term, as dividend-focussed investment funds that hold Unilever will be handed TMICC shares, the latter of which they may be forced to sell to abide by their investment mandate.”

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Ex-footballer Joey Barton sentenced for posting grossly offensive social media messages

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Ex-footballer Joey Barton sentenced for posting grossly offensive social media messages

Retired footballer Joey Barton has been sentenced over X posts he sent to football pundits Eni Aluko and Lucy Ward, along with broadcaster Jeremy Vine.

Barton, 43, had been found guilty of six counts of sending a grossly offensive electronic communication with intent to cause distress or anxiety.

He was sentenced to a six-month prison sentence, suspended for 18 months.

The former Manchester City, Newcastle United and Rangers midfielder had claimed he was the victim of a “political prosecution” and denied his aim was to “get clicks and promote himself”.

But the jury decided Barton, capped once for England in 2007, had “crossed the line between free speech and a crime” with the six posts he made on the social media platform.

The prosecution argued that Barton, who has 2.5 million followers, “may well be characterised as cutting, caustic, controversial and forthright”.

Peter Wright KC continued: “Everyone is entitled to express views that are all of those things.

“What someone is not entitled to do is to post communications electronically that are – applying those standards – beyond the pale of what is tolerable in society.”

Barton denied 12 counts of sending a grossly offensive electronic communication with intent to cause distress or anxiety between January and March last year.

He was found guilty on six counts, but cleared of another six.

In one post in January 2024, Barton compared Aluko and Ward to the “Fred and Rose West of football commentary”, and superimposed the women’s faces on a photograph of the serial murderers.

He also described Aluko as being in the “Joseph Stalin/Pol Pot category”, suggesting that she had “murdered hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of football fans’ ears”.

The jury found him not guilty in relation to the comparison with the Wests, Stalin and Pol Pot, but decided the superimposed image was grossly offensive.

Another message allegedly suggested Vine had a sexual interest in children, after the broadcaster posted a question relating to the posts about the football commentators asking whether Barton had a “brain injury”.

The ex-footballer told the court the posts were “dark and stupid humour” and “crude banter”. He also said he had no intention of implying Vine was a paedophile.

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UK

Storm Bram named as weather warnings issued for UK and Ireland

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Storm Bram named as weather warnings issued for UK and Ireland

Storm Bram has been named by the Irish weather service – with warnings for strong winds and heavy rain issued for parts of the UK and Ireland.

More than half a month’s rainfall could hit some parts of the UK in just a 24-hour period, the Met Office has warned.

Yellow and orange warnings are in place across Ireland today and tomorrow, with “very strong to gale force” winds forecast on Tuesday.

Check the weather forecast where you are

The Met Office said strong winds forecast from Monday evening through until Wednesday could cause disruption, with gusts of 50-60mph predicted widely and 70-80mph in some places.

A yellow weather warning for rain comes into effect from 6pm on Monday, and will be in place for 24 hours, covering parts of southwest England and Wales, and stretching to parts of Herefordshire and Hampshire.

The Met Office has also issued a yellow warning for high winds from Dorset to Cornwall and up to north Wales, in place from 10pm on Monday until 4pm on Tuesday.

It said transport networks could face disruption, with delays for high-sided vehicles on exposed routes and bridges, and coastal roads and seafronts affected by spray and large waves. Power outages are also possible.

For 24 hours from 6pm on Monday, up to 40mm of rain could fall in some areas, with 60-80mm of rain over Dartmoor and high ground in South Wales, which would amount to more than half the average monthly rainfall in December.

The predicted rainfall across southwest England and South Wales is expected to hit already saturated ground and could lead to difficult travel conditions.

An amber warning for wind has been issued for northwest Scotland on Tuesday.

Flying debris “could result in a danger to life” – and there could be damage to buildings and homes along with the risk of roofs being “blown off” due to the “very strong and disruptive winds”, the Met Office warned.

Forecasters added there was the potential for large waves and beach material “being thrown” across sea fronts, roads and properties.

There are also yellow warnings for wind and rain on Tuesday across Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and northern and southwest England.

Weather warnings issued for Tuesday. Pic: Met Office
Image:
Weather warnings issued for Tuesday. Pic: Met Office

Yellow warnings for wind have been issued for Scotland and parts of northern England on Wednesday.

The Met Office’s deputy chief meteorologist, Steven Keates, said: “A deepening area of low pressure will approach the UK from the southwest later on Monday, bringing with it heavy rain and strong winds, which are likely to affect the UK between late Monday and early Wednesday.

“The exact track, depth and timings of this low are uncertain, which makes it harder to determine where will be most impacted by strong winds and/or heavy rain.

“This system has the potential to cause disruption, and severe weather warnings are likely to be issued over the weekend as details become clearer. We therefore urge people to keep up-to-date with the latest Met Office forecast.”

The Met Office said the rest of the month remained unsettled, with further periods of low pressure predicted.

It also said it is too early to provide an accurate forecast for the Christmas period.

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